Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Pretty dumb point tbh. Assuming Putin does invade, of the last three presidents Trump will be the only one Ukraine didn't lose any more territory under.

You don't understand Putin 3-D chess.  He does nothing to Ukraine while his puppet Trump is in office and once Trump wins re-election puppet Trump will just hand the entire Ukraine over to Putin. 

[President Johnson]

Of course, if there are sanctions Russia will come back with "where are the sanctions on the countries that recognized Kosovo independence?"   I doubt there will be the unity in the Western alliance to impose any sanctions anyway.

Over recent weeks and on the recent Munich Security Conference, the Western alliance actually made a very united impression. I just hope they follow through.

[nicholas.slaydon]

If Vaccinated Russian Bear could contain his giddiness about the invasion of a foreign country, this thread would be much more bearable....

Yeah if Trump had successfully stolen the 2020 election I suppose he would have just given Ukraine to Putin without a fight.

Pretty dumb point tbh. Assuming Putin does invade, of the last three presidents Trump will be the only one Ukraine didn't lose any more territory under.

Exactly, it not like Biden is going to defend Ukraine from full invasion except with strong words and a light slap on the wrist.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Guardian live news feed:

I have been talking to a senior official from an east European country after Putin’s staged security council meeting. The official expressed concern about splits in allied resolve in the face of a Russian recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk “independence”.

”It might be not a direct invasion, but instead ... recognition, then maybe dragging on some days or weeks before Russian so-called ‘peacekeepers’ enter Luhansk and Donetsk occupied territories,” the official said. “Then it’s a grey zone, where you are not sure if that triggers sanctions, especially for for some European Union countries which are further from from the front line.”

"Russians don't take a dump without a plan." - Fred Thompson, The Hunt for Red October

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

RUB actually strengthened to above 80 at the end of the speech.  I guess some investors expected Putin to also order a military offensive against Ukraine which did not take place.

did no take place yet

[Middle-aged Europe]

Of course, if there are sanctions Russia will come back with "where are the sanctions on the countries that recognized Kosovo independence?"   I doubt there will be the unity in the Western alliance to impose any sanctions anyway.

Over recent weeks and on the recent Munich Security Conference, the Western alliance actually made a very united impression. I just hope they follow through.

I guess you can count Orban out though.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

So what does this mean? No invasion or what?

[jaichind]

Of course, if there are sanctions Russia will come back with "where are the sanctions on the countries that recognized Kosovo independence?"   I doubt there will be the unity in the Western alliance to impose any sanctions anyway.

Over recent weeks and on the recent Munich Security Conference, the Western alliance actually made a very united impression. I just hope they follow through.

I am sure the power of the German business will make their presence felt.  I always have faith in greed.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So what does this mean? No invasion or what?

It absolutely does not mean no invasion, but it does make a slow-rolling encroachment like with Crimea more likely relative to the apocalyptic blitzkrieg we were all fantasizing about a few days ago.

RUB actually strengthened to above 80 at the end of the speech.  I guess some investors expected Putin to also order a military offensive against Ukraine which did not take place.

did no take place yet

It's jaichind; he takes it as an article of faith that currency speculators aren't lemmings because if he admits that they are his whole worldview collapses. Best to ignore his posts about the ruble and just focus on his much more reality-based interpretations regarding what Putin and other leaders are actually saying and doing.

[Cassius]

People are slagging off Russian Bear but he’s hardly taken a especially pro-Putin position in this thread.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So what does this mean? No invasion or what?

It means that the invasion will occur (quite a bit more certain than before the speech), and that the recognition of these 2 separatist regions will be involved in the pretext for it. It may be that Russian troops go into there for "peacekeeping" or something, and then say they are "being attacked by the Ukrainians," and you can see where things are headed. Or TBH they could just go directly in immediately, because I am not sure Putin really gives a **** at this point, and he already has enough of a pretext for his purposes.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1495851685142540293?cxt=HHwWisC5mdXLqsIpAAAA

[President Johnson]

Biden announces new sanctions. The EU is on board as well.

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1495863415251906562

https://twitter.com/WOKVNews/status/1495863927716130818

[Mopsus]

What exactly are the borders of these “states” that Putin just recognized? It’s in contention, no?

[afleitch]

So nothing really new or unexpected. Continued porous border free-for all where Russia has already made an incursion and no doubt continued meddling in Ukrainian politics as has been the case for the past twenty years. Putin doesn't have a strong hand.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

What exactly are the borders of these “states” that Putin just recognized? It’s in contention, no?

Yes, it is in contention. The line of contact between Ukranian and Russian control is about halfway through those states.

So if and when the Russian troops go in to "protect" the separatist regions, the question is if they stop at the line of control (the current front line), or alternatively if they just blow right through it and keep going.

https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1495859915952476173

And here we have the "peacekeeping" operation. How far will they go?

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1495871597059706887?cxt=HHwWjsC4xdjSs8Ip...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Biden announces new sanctions. The EU is on board as well.

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1495863415251906562
https://twitter.com/WOKVNews/status/1495863927716130818

New sanctions against DNR and LNR. As always West rants about sanctioning Putin's trillions of $$$, but in the end it's always ordinary people, who get f**ked up, while Chelsea is still owned by an oligarch. All the hope on BoJo. He's a real clown, so, perhaps, two wrongs does, indeed, make a right this time around.

[jaichind]

Biden announces new sanctions. The EU is on board as well.

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1495863415251906562

https://twitter.com/WOKVNews/status/1495863927716130818

These sanctions look like sanctions on those that operate in those two breakaway Republics.  It is like a sanction on Putin's brother (if he has one).  Ceremonial but not bite.

Sanctions I am interested in and has bite are
1) SWIFT - this seems to have been ruled out
2) Russian banks using USD - look out for the workaround of Russian banks still being able to use EUR
3) Nord Stream 2 - Clearly German business interests will come in to try to stop this
4) No trading of Russian debt on secondary markets - a lot of European banks are pushing back on this.  I understand why.  A lot of emerging market debt is traded as a spread on other emerging market debt.  So no trading of Russian debt means you mess up trading of other emerging market debt.

[jaichind]

What exactly are the borders of these “states” that Putin just recognized? It’s in contention, no?

Yes, but using by Kosovo comparison, Kosovo's borders are also under contention.  There are Serb majority parts of Kosovo that claim they are not part of Kosovo.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So what does this mean? No invasion or what?

It means that the invasion will occur (quite a bit more certain than before the speech), and that the recognition of these 2 separatist regions will be involved in the pretext for it. It may be that Russian troops go into there for "peacekeeping" or something, and then say they are "being attacked by the Ukrainians," and you can see where things are headed. Or TBH they could just go directly in immediately, because I am not sure Putin really gives a **** at this point, and he already has enough of a pretext for his purposes.

One doesn't even know, what "border" Putin recognized today.

https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1495845910286372865

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It means that the invasion will occur (quite a bit more certain than before the speech), and that the recognition of these 2 separatist regions will be involved in the pretext for it. It may be that Russian troops go into there for "peacekeeping" or something, and then say they are "being attacked by the Ukrainians," and you can see where things are headed.

And here we have the "peacekeeping" operation.

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1495871597059706887

[Middle-aged Europe]

It means that the invasion will occur (quite a bit more certain than before the speech), and that the recognition of these 2 separatist regions will be involved in the pretext for it. It may be that Russian troops go into there for "peacekeeping" or something, and then say they are "being attacked by the Ukrainians," and you can see where things are headed.

And here we have the "peacekeeping" operation.

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1495871597059706887

On the first day after the Olympics had concluded. Kind of obvious timing, Putin.

[Crumpets]

Sure looks like this is going to be a significantly increased and overt Russian military presence in the separatist areas. That means Russian weapons and troops crossing the border into Ukraine, but it still remains to be seen if they're planning to try to take any new territory (worth noting both the DNR and LNR claim a lot more territory than they control, albeit none outside of easternmost Ukraine). At least according to a lot of the Russia watchers I know, doing the former without doing the latter is a way Russia can "invade" and not be seen as backing down without having to "invade."

[compucomp]

It means that the invasion will occur (quite a bit more certain than before the speech), and that the recognition of these 2 separatist regions will be involved in the pretext for it. It may be that Russian troops go into there for "peacekeeping" or something, and then say they are "being attacked by the Ukrainians," and you can see where things are headed.

And here we have the "peacekeeping" operation.

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1495871597059706887

I guess we're about to find out what a "minor incursion" is?

Also I like Putin's terminology in referring to "the authorities in charge in Kiev" and the "Kiev regime" to brand Ukraine as a rogue state, mimicking how the US likes to label countries it thinks of as rogue states.

[Crumpets]

This is just my opinion, but I think the way Putin is framing this makes a big escalation in the Ukraininan east much more likely while making war - at least a ground war over control of territory - in the rest of the country much less likely.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1495874681802575872?cxt=HHwWgMC-1Z-GtcIpAAA...

https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1495873941470322688?cxt=HHwWgIDR4ZPbtMIpAAA...