Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1487534551513587717

It's getting harder for me to understand the Ukrainians. I wonder if their goal early on was to drum up the beats of war (which is not hard with Russia on their border), sends them military equipment which they like, but they want NATO to make some concession to Russia that doesn't involve them and allows them to escape conflict.

They're at war now. Even if they've by fact conceded Crimea they're still at real war skirmish in Donbass. So they're already at war, why are they saying such info is causing panic and fear?

[Mr. Illini]

UK, Poland, Ukraine considering formalizing security pact to fend off Russian aggression

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-02-01/britain-poland-and-ukraine-preparing-trilateral-security-pact-kyiv-says

Russia may have driven Ukraine further into the arms of the West with all of their saber rattling. Some gamesman Putin is!

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1487534551513587717

It's getting harder for me to understand the Ukrainians. I wonder if their goal early on was to drum up the beats of war (which is not hard with Russia on their border), sends them military equipment which they like, but they want NATO to make some concession to Russia that doesn't involve them and allows them to escape conflict.

They're at war now. Even if they've by fact conceded Crimea they're still at real war skirmish in Donbass. So they're already at war, why are they saying such info is causing panic and fear?

Because all this war talk is already hitting the Ukraine economy.  The Ukraine CDS is already shooting up.  So if they are not convinced that there will be a Russian invasion soon they clearly will be angry that anyone else saying that there will be such an invasion when such talk is hitting their economy. 

[Frodo]

Orban, as is to be expected, is aligning himself with Putin:

Strongmen strut their stuff as Orbán visits Putin in Russia

Hungary should never have been allowed into NATO or the European Union. 

[😥]

Orban, as is to be expected, is aligning himself with Putin:

Strongmen strut their stuff as Orbán visits Putin in Russia

Hungary should never have been allowed into NATO or the European Union. 

As bitter as it may sound to me, Orban wants to get Transcarpathia in the event of full Russian occupation of Ukraine. But, in principle, the beginning of the Russian invasion is enough for him to start some separatist actions in the Transcarpathian region.

[StateBoiler]

So if they are not convinced that there will be a Russian invasion soon they clearly will be angry that anyone else saying that there will be such an invasion when such talk is hitting their economy.  

Then what do they think is happening? Do they think all these men in uniform on their border is they want to see the sights of southern Belarus?

I'm sure that sucks for the economy.  So is the Covid pandemic. It's an outside force imposed on you that like it or not, you have to deal with. There's an NPR interview with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister whose goal was to say the U.S. and Ukraine are not saying different things, this is information warfare. He strongly reacted to a Reuters report that the Russians had moved blood (for wounded) to the border...all the while send us weapons, impose sanctions now including on Nord Stream 2.

The thing that stuck out to me was he said when the U.S. shared intelligence with them in November, Ukraine was not sitting doing nothing, they came up with a comprehensive deterrent strategy based on 3 planks - diplomacy, sanctions, and military support to Ukraine. How great of them to come up with a deterrent strategy for their defense where they tell more powerful countries what to do. Notice of those 3 things, there's only 1 of them they can control: diplomacy. And I'm not aware of any diplomacy going on between Ukraine and Russia, Ukrainian diplomacy is all geared toward the U.S. and the Europeans in how they carry out diplomacy with Russia, which means they're doing all the heavy lifting. So what is Ukrainian diplomacy's strategy vis a vis Russia? Diplomacy means in the end you're likely going to get a compromise in the middle and each side does not get everything they want. What is Ukrainian diplomacy's overarching goal of what they think Russia will get that will make Russia happy enough to prevent further war (because they're in war NOW and have been for 7 years) in Ukraine?  The Ukrainians are acting like
the ball to prevent this conflict is all in the West's court.

I get that Ukraine are not a strong power compared to Russia and the U.S. There's a difference though between that and being a small feckless state like Kuwait in the Persian Gulf War, Ukraine has some degree of power, and I'm not seeing it. And per military observers, the Ukrainians aren't even doing token preparations for conflict that would seem to be smart in this instance of mobilizing reserves or moving their HQ's into the field.

[jaichind]

So if they are not convinced that there will be a Russian invasion soon they clearly will be angry that anyone else saying that there will be such an invasion when such talk is hitting their economy.  

Then what do they think is happening? Do they think all these men in uniform on their border is they want to see the sights of southern Belarus?

I'm sure that sucks for the economy.  So is the Covid pandemic. It's an outside force imposed on you that like it or not, you have to deal with. There's an NPR interview with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister whose goal was to say the U.S. and Ukraine are not saying different things, this is information warfare. He strongly reacted to a Reuters report that the Russians had moved blood (for wounded) to the border...all the while send us weapons, impose sanctions now including on Nord Stream 2.

What Ukraine wants is for the USA to pressure Germany to cancel Nord Stream 2 w/o any conflict.  They clearly want to play up the Russian threat to Ukraine so the USA can pressure Germany but clearly, they do not want that pressure to lead to a collapse of Ukraine's economy.  So Ukraine needs some tension but not too much.   I do not think Russia has any plans to invade.  They have long-term plans to roll back NATO and could get more aggressive in a few years if they do not see progress on that.  In the short run, they just want Ukraine to start talks with the breakaway Republics as per the Minsk agreement, and for NATO to acknowledge their grievances have some merit.  None of this indicates to me Russia have any real plans for any military offensive on the short run.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1487534551513587717

Maybe it's time for a coup in Ukraine that will be more aligned with USA goals.  Memories of  RVN Diem 1963.

[StateBoiler]

So if they are not convinced that there will be a Russian invasion soon they clearly will be angry that anyone else saying that there will be such an invasion when such talk is hitting their economy.  

Then what do they think is happening? Do they think all these men in uniform on their border is they want to see the sights of southern Belarus?

I'm sure that sucks for the economy.  So is the Covid pandemic. It's an outside force imposed on you that like it or not, you have to deal with. There's an NPR interview with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister whose goal was to say the U.S. and Ukraine are not saying different things, this is information warfare. He strongly reacted to a Reuters report that the Russians had moved blood (for wounded) to the border...all the while send us weapons, impose sanctions now including on Nord Stream 2.

What Ukraine wants is for the USA to pressure Germany to cancel Nord Stream 2 w/o any conflict.  They clearly want to play up the Russian threat to Ukraine so the USA can pressure Germany but clearly, they do not want that pressure to lead to a collapse of Ukraine's economy.

Germany canceling Nord Stream 2 without any conflict is highly unlikely. The U.S. Senate in fact just voted such a proposal down to sanction companies involved in Nord Stream 2 under intense lobbying from the Biden administration, so the U.S. are not on board either. There's wrangling going on under a bill to help defeat the previous one about Nord Stream 2, but it's probable if it's too aggressive and the Germans raise a fit Biden would veto, and that's even considering it passes the Senate and House. And right now the Senate only has 49 Democrats to 50 Republicans with Lujan in the hospital following a stroke.

So what is Ukraine's next plan diplomatically? They cannot control the foreign policy of the United States of America or the Federal Republic of Germany. They CAN control their own foreign policy however. I think they have 2 to 3 weeks.

[jaichind]

Germany canceling Nord Stream 2 without any conflict is highly unlikely. The U.S. Senate in fact just voted such a proposal down to sanction companies involved in Nord Stream 2 under intense lobbying from the Biden administration, so the U.S. are not on board either. There's wrangling going on under a bill to help defeat the previous one about Nord Stream 2, but it's probable if it's too aggressive and the Germans raise a fit Biden would veto, and that's even considering it passes the Senate and House. And right now the Senate only has 49 Democrats to 50 Republicans with Lujan in the hospital following a stroke.

So what is Ukraine's next plan diplomatically? They cannot control the foreign policy of the United States of America or the Federal Republic of Germany.

Well, I agree Germany canceled Nord Stream 2 is unlikely given their foolish policy of shutting down their nuke plants.  I think what Ukraine is thinking of is in return for accepting Nord Stream 2 operating there is a massive cash infusion from the collective West to compensate Ukraine for losing its transit state status and its inability to blackmail Germany to give them gas for free.

My impression is that during these Biden-Zelensky talks where they disagreed on the scale and scope of the Russian threat Zelensky did ask for a boatload of cash from Biden who then failed to commit to anything in terms of economic aid for Ukraine.

This entire situation sets up some very interesting game theory situations and it will be fun to see what the outcome will be.

[StateBoiler]

What Ukraine wants is for the USA to pressure Germany to cancel Nord Stream 2 w/o any conflict.  They clearly want to play up the Russian threat to Ukraine so the USA can pressure Germany but clearly, they do not want that pressure to lead to a collapse of Ukraine's economy.

Germany canceling Nord Stream 2 without any conflict is highly unlikely. The U.S. Senate in fact just voted such a proposal down to sanction companies involved in Nord Stream 2 under intense lobbying from the Biden administration, so the U.S. are not on board either. There's wrangling going on under a bill to help defeat the previous one about Nord Stream 2, but it's probable if it's too aggressive and the Germans raise a fit Biden would veto, and that's even considering it passes the Senate and House. And right now the Senate only has 49 Democrats to 50 Republicans with Lujan in the hospital following a stroke.

So what is Ukraine's next plan diplomatically? They cannot control the foreign policy of the United States of America or the Federal Republic of Germany. They CAN however control their own foreign policy. I think they have 2 to 3 weeks.

Well, I agree Germany canceled Nord Stream 2 is unlikely given their foolish policy of shutting down their nuke plants.  I think what Ukraine is thinking of is in return for accepting Nord Stream 2 operating there is a massive cash infusion from the collective West to compensate Ukraine for losing its transit state status and its inability to blackmail Germany to give them gas for free.

If that's their plan, that's a f#cking stupid plan, because how does that stop Russia from invading? Were the Ukrainians planning a military operation to blow up the pipeline and if they're paid, they won't do it? Nord Stream 2 pipeline coming into operation is the fait accompli, so the Ukrainians are asking to be paid off to allow something that was going to happen anyway, but none of that has anything to deal with the 100k+ Russian soldiers in the east of their country, Crimea, and the Ukraine-Belarus border.

[jaichind]

If that's their plan, that's a f#cking stupid plan, because how does that stop Russia from invading? Were the Ukrainians planning a military operation to blow up the pipeline and if they're paid, they won't do it? Nord Stream 2 pipeline coming into operation is the fait accompli, so the Ukrainians are asking to be paid off to allow something that was going to happen anyway, but none of that has anything to deal with the 100k+ Russian soldiers in the east of their country, Crimea, and the Ukraine-Belarus border.

But your starting point is that the Russian build-up is proof of some sort of invasion.  I disagree.  I read the Russian buildup as a defensive measure.  I think Russia views  Nord Stream 2 coming online will mean Ukraine will get more desperate and try to start something with the breakaway the Republics to try to create a crisis.  The Russian buildup under stuck a framework could be read as a measure to deter possible aggressive moves from Ukraine and pressure Ukraine to open talks with the breakaway Republics as per Minsk Agreement.  So under this way of looking at things Ukraine knows there is no invasion and when the invasion threat is pushed so high that their economy is impacted they get angry.  They want enough tension to shut down Nord Steam 2 or get cash from the West but not so much that their economy starts falling apart.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: cancelling NS2

[jaichind]

Re: cancelling NS2

Sure but I will argue part of that is also Germany shutting down the nuke plants which means that Germany is now much more dependent on Russian energy. 

I am reading about frantic USA efforts to try to route LNG to Europe in case of a decrease of Russian energy exports to Europe.  Of course, doing that would just make the USA inflation situation even worse.  Biden has played himself into a corner.

[StateBoiler]

If that's their plan, that's a f#cking stupid plan, because how does that stop Russia from invading? Were the Ukrainians planning a military operation to blow up the pipeline and if they're paid, they won't do it? Nord Stream 2 pipeline coming into operation is the fait accompli, so the Ukrainians are asking to be paid off to allow something that was going to happen anyway, but none of that has anything to deal with the 100k+ Russian soldiers in the east of their country, Crimea, and the Ukraine-Belarus border.

But your starting point is that the Russian build-up is proof of some sort of invasion.  I disagree.  I read the Russian buildup as a defensive measure.

Start something? They've been in tit-for-tat war in the east for 7 years. I'm sure Ukraine is going to be using all the military aid they've been sent the past few months in Luhansk and Donetsk.  

The Russian buildup under stuck a framework could be read as a measure to deter possible aggressive moves from Ukraine and pressure Ukraine to open talks with the breakaway Republics as per Minsk Agreement.

Minsk was dead within a month of its signature as no one lived up to it. It's a failed treaty.

So under this way of looking at things Ukraine knows there is no invasion and when the invasion threat is pushed so high that their economy is impacted they get angry.  They want enough tension to shut down Nord Steam 2 or get cash from the West but not so much that their economy starts falling apart.

Do you know how much of a largely impossible diplomatic trapeze act that is? Because you're not trying to just go one direction up or down which in diplomacy you can do, you're trying to create enough pressure to get a certain result but not enough pressure to cause you harm, all the while they can't control what the Americans or Germans or Europeans think as far as "this event will cause us to do X".

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1487534551513587717

Maybe it's time for a coup in Ukraine that will be more aligned with USA goals.  Memories of  RVN Diem 1963.

Sounds like a great idea, can't see any possible drawbacks to it

[thebeloitmoderate]

Orban, as is to be expected, is aligning himself with Putin:

Strongmen strut their stuff as Orbán visits Putin in Russia

Hungary should never have been allowed into NATO or the European Union. 

I find this funny enough that Hungary and Poland 2 EU countries who has feuded with the EU on everything has switched sides. Hungary is Pro Putin while Poland is teaming up with the UK, Germany, and NATO against Putin potentially invading the Ukrainian border

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/VALERIEin140/status/1488624751098667008


Not that Hungary has a say there, but 😬

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1488926785848946692

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/VALERIEin140/status/1488624751098667008


Not that Hungary has a say there, but 😬

Honestly, he has a point. How much effect did the sanctions implemented in response to the Crimean invasion and annexation have on the Russian economy?

Though, I don't think Russia's security demands were "normal and should be the basis for negotiations". There isn't much point in a military alliance if you're not able to station troops in nearly half of said alliance's member countries. Just as Western leaders have talked about NATO's "open door" policy toward states seeking membership in response to Russia's demand for guarantees of no further NATO expansion, member states are also free to close the door and leave.

In response to your comment: Fortunately Hungary does have a say since the North Atlantic Council (the governing body of NATO) cannot make decisions without unanimity.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/VALERIEin140/status/1488624751098667008


Not that Hungary has a say there, but 😬

Honestly, he has a point. How much effect did the sanctions implemented in response to the Crimean invasion and annexation have on the Russian economy?

Though, I don't think Russia's security demands were "normal and should be the basis for negotiations". There isn't much point in a military alliance if you're not able to station troops in nearly half of said alliance's member countries. Just as Western leaders have talked about NATO's "open door" policy toward states seeking membership in response to Russia's demand for guarantees of no further NATO expansion, member states are also free to close the door and leave.

In response to your comment: Fortunately Hungary does have a say since the North Atlantic Council (the governing body of NATO) cannot make decisions without unanimity.

A lot of people seem inclined to look at sanctions as a "thing to do when opposing leader does something", but this ignores the diminishing returns, and the fact that, yes, Russia is much more sanction-proof than it was in 2014.

I don't like that. You don't sanction to virtue-signal. Virtue-signalling has no major place in foreign policy.
You do sanctions when they are likely to be effective and withdraw them and apply them as the situation demands, not to "send a message". They are overused, trite, and consistently fail to do anything major but weaken international commerce and exchange between nations, bit by bit.

Sanctions against Russia if it invades Ukraine are likely to be ineffective and are not to be the main instrument of "punishing" Russia (aka, forcing Russia to run to China).

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1488926785848946692

The crux of his argument lies in the odd assertion that the US cannot fulfil its obligations in Europe while also countering the increasing military threat posed by China. I thought the US was able to win a world war with major theaters in Europe and Asia. Maybe I'm just losing my marbles but, didn't the US also work to contain Communism in Europe and Asia during the Cold War? Didn't that effort involve massive military commitments in both regions?

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1488926785848946692

The crux of his argument lies in the odd assertion that the US cannot fulfil its obligations in Europe while also countering the increasing military threat posed by China. I thought the US was able to win a world war with major theaters in Europe and Asia. Maybe I'm just losing my marbles but, didn't the US also work to contain Communism in Europe and Asia during the Cold War? Didn't that effort involve massive military commitments in both regions?

Our and our allies' military capabilities have changed in 32 years, as have our adversaries.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/VALERIEin140/status/1488624751098667008

Not that Hungary has a say there, but 😬

Well, stops NATO and the EU from being unanimous on anything.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1488926785848946692

The crux of his argument lies in the odd assertion that the US cannot fulfil its obligations in Europe while also countering the increasing military threat posed by China. I thought the US was able to win a world war with major theaters in Europe and Asia. Maybe I'm just losing my marbles but, didn't the US also work to contain Communism in Europe and Asia during the Cold War? Didn't that effort involve massive military commitments in both regions?

The correlation of forces in the world is not as favorable to the USA as it was in the Cold War.  And even in the Cold War, the USA roped in the PRC as a de facto ally against the USSR. 

His argument mostly matches my own proposal for the USA strategy which is to do everything to break the PRC-Russia alliance.  If that means demarkating a Russian sphere of influence that sounds reasonable given Russia's Great Power status. The USA should seek to be on friendlier terms with every Great Power in the world than they are with each other.  That is how the USA will maintain its relative power in an era where its relative strength has dimished since the 1990s.