Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Unfortunately due to ammo shortages issues it looks like Ukraine is going to have to pull out of Avdiivka soon 😔. Ukraine made the bastards bleed for it but the fact that if the GOP wasn’t stabbing Ukraine in the back this wouldn’t be happening is so infuriating

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-05/trump-house-gop-leaders-reject-senate-border-ukraine-aid-deal

"Trump, House GOP Leaders Reject Senate Border-Ukraine Deal"

Speaker Mike Johnson and other Republican leaders in a joint statement Monday declared the Senate compromise “a waste of time” and “dead on arrival” in the House. 

It seems it is going to be back to the drawing board to get Ukraine aid through.

[jaichind]

This entire Zelensky-Zaluzhny saga must be very difficult for the middle level officers in the AFU to deal with.  At this stage one of the two must win and there other lose.  So now the middle level officers will not know what to do when they get orders from either one fearing that repercussions if said the leader in question ends up losing.  This is why power struggles like this in rational regimes should take place quickly and settled ASAP to avoid this sort of situation. 

[bilaps]

It is over for Zaluzhny, he's going to be replaced tomorrow. If not tomorrow it will most def coincide with fall of Avdeevka.

In my opinion it's a bad move for Zelensky cause the nation right now isn't on the tipping point of meltdown yet. He is going to need a scapegoat when things really get worse on the frontlines.

[Woody]

Unlike Bakhmut, Avdiivka has a strategic and military value.

It's been a thorn for the DPR and occupied Donetsk since 2014. Due to it's southern fortifications Ukrainians could defend it with relatively little troops. After it's fall they're going to have to commit more reserves to the towns west and north of it

[jaichind]

It is over for Zaluzhny, he's going to be replaced tomorrow. If not tomorrow it will most def coincide with fall of Avdeevka.

In my opinion it's a bad move for Zelensky cause the nation right now isn't on the tipping point of meltdown yet. He is going to need a scapegoat when things really get worse on the frontlines.

There is an argument to delay Zaluzhny leaving if there are military setbacks in Avdiivka since it will look like panic.  Of course, I will still do it anyway since it is absurd for the entire world to know that Zelensky wants Zaluzhny but Zaluzhny is still not gone.

[ProudModerate2]

Bade wake up Ukraine hit the Black Sea fleet again
https://twitter.com/bnonews/status/1753013968342282304?s=12

Beautiful.
Especially the end of the video, showing it sinking to the bottom of the sea.

[jaichind]

Schumer should propose a peace deal where 5,000 Russian troops can enter Ukraine a day but AFU gets to fire back after the 5,000 a day quota is met.

[bilaps]

Schumer should help in Avdeevka. Joe and Mika should join him along with other neocon bastards.

https://twitter.com/Pouletvolant3/status/1754814240395759728

Watch now how Ukraine and media are going to accept fall of Avdeevka moment it happens. Unlike in Bakhmut when they argued for weeks that the city hasn't fallen. It's all about Benjamins baby.

[jaichind]

Watch now how Ukraine and media are going to accept fall of Avdeevka moment it happens. Unlike in Bakhmut when they argued for weeks that the city hasn't fallen. It's all about Benjamins baby.

I think if Avdiivka does fall the Ukraine response would be a combination of

a) Blame it on Zaluzhny
and
b) Claim that Avdiivka  has not fallen since UAF will still control a small part of the city in the Northwest even after Russia will mostly capture the core of the city by cutting off the main supply route into the garrison

[bilaps]

That's the coke plant you circled. Russians are just going to pummel it with FAB bombs, something like they did with Azovstal in Mariupol. No point in staying there if you ask me. They would need to make new system of defense somewhere to the west. If they're smart they'll do that and save lives of their soldiers. If not, then new Bakhmut is gonna happen which will trigger new Avdeevka etc. Also, things not looking good in Pervomaiske and Novomikhailovka. When Novomikhailovka falls we're gonna see push to Ugledar.

And now situation at Lyman direction has suddenly become untenable across Oskyl river. There's just too much leakage and not enough plumbers in Ukrainian army at the moment. They need to decide what they really want to defend and what is not actually worth it. They can't fight attritional war with Russia.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So it’s been a few weeks since the plane crash and Russia still refuses to hand over any proof of pows being on the plane. They say they have the bodies but are refusing to give them to Ukraine, totally not suspicious at all

[jaichind]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-view-on-zelenskys-reshuffle-of-military-and-civilian-leaders-iron-general-5w2j2n8wr

"The Times view on Zelensky’s reshuffle of military and civilian leaders: Iron General"



The British Times describes Zaluzhny as the "Iron General" and accused Zelensky of trying to get rid of a more popular rival.   The collective West MSM seems to be split on the Zelensky-Zaluzhny conflict

[jaichind]

Another example of  Blinken's rule based order
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1754517903167173061

[jaichind]

Ukraine begins to glorify women in combat roles
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1754572717909561468

[jaichind]

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-avdiivka-fall-donetsk-1866925

"Avdiivka Is About to Fall"

Leon Hartwell, senior associate at the London School of Economics think tank LSE IDEAS, said that the Russian capture of Avdiivka could strengthen the position of Western skeptics advocating for a reduction in military and financial support for Ukraine.

It would also enable Russian forces to consolidate positions around Bakhmut, facilitate their control of the highway between Donetsk and Kramatorsk, and overall enhance Moscow's logistical capabilities in Donetsk.

[bilaps]

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-avdiivka-fall-donetsk-1866925

"Avdiivka Is About to Fall"

Leon Hartwell, senior associate at the London School of Economics think tank LSE IDEAS, said that the Russian capture of Avdiivka could strengthen the position of Western skeptics advocating for a reduction in military and financial support for Ukraine.

It would also enable Russian forces to consolidate positions around Bakhmut, facilitate their control of the highway between Donetsk and Kramatorsk, and overall enhance Moscow's logistical capabilities in Donetsk.

It would also help ordinary people of Donetsk city stopping the shelling from Ukrainians which killed thousands of civilians since 2014 but you won't hear mr Hartwell saying that.

[Storr]

"Russian state media: we are ridding the country of pernicious western influence

Also Russian state media: Oooh, this famous American TV host said nice things about us, let's kiss his ass in the most groveling way possible"

That quote was in response to this Sputnik Twitter post: "What do ordinary Russians think about Tucker Carlson?

Sputnik posed that question to Moscow residents. Many of our interviewees praised Carlson as a “courageous journalist who is willing to challenge the anti-Russian propaganda” dominating the Western mainstream media.

Watch for yourself what ordinary Russians have to say about @TuckerCarlson."

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1754540984778584166?s=20

[jaichind]

"Russian state media: we are ridding the country of pernicious western influence

Also Russian state media: Oooh, this famous American TV host said nice things about us, let's kiss his ass in the most groveling way possible"

That quote was in response to this Sputnik Twitter post: "What do ordinary Russians think about Tucker Carlson?

Sputnik posed that question to Moscow residents. Many of our interviewees praised Carlson as a “courageous journalist who is willing to challenge the anti-Russian propaganda” dominating the Western mainstream media.

Watch for yourself what ordinary Russians have to say about @TuckerCarlson."

Sure but that mirrors how collective West MSM views dissidents of alternative civilizational rivals.  Of course that is only true if said dissidents do not cross the party line of the collective West MSM.   A case in point would be old PRC dissident Ai Weiwei who had his share of collective West "human rights" awards but now runs afoul of the MSM due to his position on Gaza

https://www.newarab.com/news/ai-weiwei-says-wests-gaza-censorship-maos-china

"Dissident artist Ai Weiwei likens Gaza censorship in West with China 'under Mao'"

Understandably, the Russian MSM narrative works in the same way as the collective West MSM since they are just mirror images of each other.

[Storr]

Why shoot down incoming enemy missiles when you can take just videos of them instead?

“Video of the “work” of air defense in Crimea.

In the video, the British-French-made “Storm Shadow/SCALP” flies unhindered over the Russian S-300/S-400 air defense missile launchers. Russians follow it with their gaze and swear words.

This missile is heading towards the Belbek airfield and will later hit the command post of the 38th Fighter Aviation Regiment.

01/31/2024.”

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1754896191202963506?s=20

[jaichind]

It is possible that Russia wants to capture Avdiivka before the March Russia Prez elections and Ukraine may have a goal of holding on to Avdiivka before the March Russia Prez elections to deny Putin that PR victory. Either motivation, if true, sounds like a really bad idea and I hope for both sides that is not what is going on as they are wasting lives and resources that should be used more economically for maximum military impact.

[Open Source Intelligence]

It is possible that Russia wants to capture Avdiivka before the March Russia Prez elections and Ukraine may have a goal of holding on to Avdiivka before the March Russia Prez elections to deny Putin that PR victory. Either motivation, if true, sounds like a really bad idea and I hope for both sides that is not what is going on as they are wasting lives and resources that should be used more economically for maximum military impact.

We're kind of past the point of worrying about that.

[jaichind]

The Telegraph produced a scenario for the outbreak of war between NATO and Russia

[Storr]

Tucker Carlson releases a video on Twitter explaining why he will interview Putin, saying not enough American journalists are showing the "Russian perspective":

"Quite something to complain about how not enough American journalists are reporting on the Russian side of Putin's invasion of Ukraine when two of them – Evan Gershkovich and Alsu Kurmasheva – are *in jail right now* for doing just that"

What Carlson actually means (but doesn't want to admit it directly, for whatever reason) is there isn't enough Pro-Kremlin American reporting.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1754945619871838374?s=20

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-troops-bristle-rumours-chiefs-200427482.html

"Ukraine troops bristle at rumours of chief's possible firing"

Ukraine's soldiers fighting on the frontlines have little patience for the rumours swirling in Kyiv that President Volodymyr Zelensky may soon fire their beloved army chief Valery Zaluzhny.
Most troops have enormous respect for the career military man, considering him a father figure.

More pushback on Zaluzhny being fired from the collective West MSM.