Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[John Dule]

Winter is coming

I can tell this post was typed with only one hand.

[bilaps]

They really are claiming with straight face they took down 74 out of 75 Shaheds. That's sone next level propaganda. Shoigu would be proud.

[jaichind]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/21/ukrainian-refugee-families-in-uk-at-risk-of-homelessness-this-winter

"Ukrainian refugee families in UK four times as likely to end up homeless"

"British Red Cross research calls for more funding to support Ukrainians to prevent them ending up on streets this winter"

They can always go back to Ukraine but I guess the situation there is also so dire that being homeless in the UK might be an acceptable risk.   There is also the issue of being mobilized if the men go back.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/21/ukrainian-refugee-families-in-uk-at-risk-of-homelessness-this-winter

"Ukrainian refugee families in UK four times as likely to end up homeless"

"British Red Cross research calls for more funding to support Ukrainians to prevent them ending up on streets this winter"

They can always go back to Ukraine but I guess the situation there is also so dire that being homeless in the UK might be an acceptable risk.   There is also the issue of being mobilized if the men go back.

So they're still less likely to be homeless than a random resident of Los Angeles or Oakland?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1728783587514667137?s=12
Looks like Ukraine launched a retaliation drone strike on Russia

[dead0man]

are there still people who don't think Ukraine should attack Russia proper?

[Hindsight was 2020]

are there still people who don't think Ukraine should attack Russia proper?

Unfortunately yes
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Sullivan

[Antonio the Sixth]

are there still people who don't think Ukraine should attack Russia proper?

Apparently the responsible and reasonable way to handle a war of national defense against a genocidal invader is to make sure the invaded party is fighting with one hand tied behind its back. To do otherwise would be "escalating"... somehow.

[bilaps]

Lol Ukraine has been attacking Russia proper for a long time. If US really wanted to put a stop to this, they would. Problem is those attacks are pure propaganda, they lead to nothing. Two broken windows in some Moscow suburb will not change the situation around Avdeevka.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1728857512580133062

https://twitter.com/theinformantofc/status/1728826544498610668



Will this impact the war?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1728867065015009785

https://twitter.com/orbital_news/status/1728828775130071182

https://twitter.com/volcaholic1/status/1728768491581579265

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1728902281587019861?s=61&t=wLRqIM...

[Meclazine for Israel]

Russia's GDP has reached a level well above pre-war levels.

Keep in mind the exchange rate changes over the same period of time.

On June 1, 2022, One USD was worth 52 Rubels.

On October 1, 2023, One USD was worth 92 Rubels.

They are running a GDP somewhere in the order of USD $2.29 Trillion. Oil, guns, nickel etc are making them a fortune.

When calculated in Russian Rubels, they are actually booming this year in terms of GDP. Since June 22, they would have doubled their GDP in the local currency.

[jaichind]

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/soldaten-packen-aus-wut-auf-regierung-riesen-probleme-in-der-ukraine-armee-86226150.bild.html

"Huge problems in the Ukrainian army"

Bild article on growing disgruntlement within the Ukraine army since the failure of the Summer Counteroffensive and now Russia going back on the offensive again.

[jaichind]

Russia's GDP has reached a level well above pre-war levels.

Keep in mind the exchange rate changes over the same period of time.

On June 1, 2022, One USD was worth 52 Rubels.

On October 1, 2023, One USD was worth 92 Rubels.

They are running a GDP somewhere in the order of USD $2.29 Trillion. Oil, guns, nickel etc are making them a fortune.

When calculated in Russian Rubels, they are actually booming this year in terms of GDP. Since June 22, they would have doubled their GDP in the local currency.

These GDP numbers are in real terms which strips out inflation.    The JPM index on the effective exchange rate which takes into account relative inflation between different currencies has the RUB index right now about the same as right before the start of the war.  This pretty much means the RUB decline relative to the start of the war merely reflects relation inflation.   This means taking effective exchange rates into account the chart above is mostly reflective of real output and does not over estimate or underestimate the impact of the decline of RUB.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/25711074-5e1a-494a-9d7c-ccb535f671d5

"Manpower becomes Ukraine’s latest challenge as it digs in for a long war"

Of the four men who lined up at an army recruitment centre in Kyiv one morning this month, only one was there voluntarily.

[jaichind]

I read this as Collective West expecting some decline in the stability in Kiev in the coming months as the war drags on so it is best to pre-blame that on Russia.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-26/russia-woos-africa-with-free-grain-fertilizer-research-funding

"Russia Woos Africa With Free Grain, Fertilizer Research Funding"

Russia ending the grain deal could have led to bad PR with rising food prices in the Global South.  This seems one way to mitigate that PR loss.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Russia's GDP has reached a level well above pre-war levels.

Keep in mind the exchange rate changes over the same period of time.

On June 1, 2022, One USD was worth 52 Rubels.

On October 1, 2023, One USD was worth 92 Rubels.

They are running a GDP somewhere in the order of USD $2.29 Trillion. Oil, guns, nickel etc are making them a fortune.

When calculated in Russian Rubels, they are actually booming this year in terms of GDP. Since June 22, they would have doubled their GDP in the local currency.

These GDP numbers are in real terms which strips out inflation.    The JPM index on the effective exchange rate which takes into account relative inflation between different currencies has the RUB index right now about the same as right before the start of the war.  This pretty much means the RUB decline relative to the start of the war merely reflects relation inflation.   This means taking effective exchange rates into account the chart above is mostly reflective of real output and does not over estimate or underestimate the impact of the decline of RUB.

Inflation is not the same as exchange rate.

They are very distinct economic attributes.

[jaichind]

Inflation is not the same as exchange rate.

They are very distinct economic attributes.

Totally agree.  This is why I attributed the JPM index to real effective currency strength which adjusts for inflation differentials.  That index had RUB much stronger than inflation differentials would suggest most of 2022 but most of 2023 was weaker than inflation differentials would suggest.  Just in the last couple of weeks, that index is pretty much the same as it was right before the war started.  So as of today and relative to right before the war the RUB exchange rate can almost completely be explained by inflation differentials.  There is no guarantee that it will stay that way in the future since as you correctly assert, inflation is not the same as exchange rate.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Inflation is not the same as exchange rate.

They are very distinct economic attributes.

Totally agree.  This is why I attributed the JPM index to real effective currency strength which adjusts for inflation differentials.  That index had RUB much stronger than inflation differentials would suggest most of 2022 but most of 2023 was weaker than inflation differentials would suggest.  Just in the last couple of weeks, that index is pretty much the same as it was right before the war started.  So as of today and relative to right before the war the RUB exchange rate can almost completely be explained by inflation differentials.  There is no guarantee that it will stay that way in the future since as you correctly assert, inflation is not the same as exchange rate.

Either way, they are makin' lots of coin.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1729165501405049006?s=20
Russian sources are saying they are falling back north of Avdiivka 😗
(Eng trans is in the comments)

[Storr]

I read this as Collective West expecting some decline in the stability in Kiev in the coming months as the war drags on so it is best to pre-blame that on Russia.

I didn't know one media publication represents the entire collective west. lol

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1729051539661308085

[Storr]

"A group of relatives of mobilized Russian soldiers has published a manifesto and petition against “indefinite mobilization.” “We were f-ed over and you’ll be f-ed over,” it reads. “…Behind the smokescreen of stability, our men pay with blood.”"

https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/11/27/families-of-russian-draftees-release-manifesto-and-petition-against-indefinite-mobilization

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1729149217984442717?s=20

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1729165501405049006?s=20
Russian sources are saying they are falling back north of Avdiivka 😗
(Eng trans is in the comments)

You see how it's easy to believe Russian telegram channels when information suits you. However, even that post has been cut off to not show reporting about Russian progress in other parts of Avdeevka front. In general, Ukrainian situation remains bleak at Avdeevka in spite of transfers from Zaporozhye likes of 47nd brigade etc. Losing industrial zone is a big blow. When they lose coke plant in the north, it will be game over.