Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[bilaps]

Ukrainians have had some success in the last days at Zaporozye and Kherson fronts, but Russians are advancing at Avdeevka and Bakhmut and now not only on the northern flank but in the south also. Looks like Russians have estbalished a foothold west from the famous railway track north of Avdeevka which means a threat to Stepove and Berdichi. And those two are key to Avdeevka.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The EU has come up with a workaround Hungary’s veto of aid so a 53 billion dollar aid package is coming through soon
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-09/eu-mulls-alternative-ukraine-funding-plan-to-bypass-hungary-veto?embedded-checkout=true#xj4y7vzkg

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah, poor ickle smol bean Orban

[CanadianDemocrat]

The EU has come up with a workaround Hungary’s veto of aid so a 53 billion dollar aid package is coming through soon
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-09/eu-mulls-alternative-ukraine-funding-plan-to-bypass-hungary-veto?embedded-checkout=true#xj4y7vzkg

NATO should also remove the unanimity requirement to join NATO,  similar to what the EU is now doing. NATO admission should require a supermajority instead of unanimity. It is wrong to have 1 country out of 31 NATO members blocking a new member joining.

[jaichind]

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/11/09/will-zelensky-wait-for-the-inevitable/

"Will Zelensky wait for the inevitable?"

A good example is airpower. Ukraine wants 100 to 150 F-16s.  Realistically it has no where to put them and few qualified pilots to fly them, even if they were available. Two disassembled F-16s were trucked into Ukraine in early November. Now there are 5 F-16s in Ukraine, but they have to be put back together. The two handfuls of F-16s soon to be transferred to Ukraine are not likely to make a difference. To begin with, these are old models of the F-16s that won’t be easy to maintain and can’t match top of the line Russian aircraft. Worst yet, any offensive use of the transferred F-16s need to be able to operate in a dense Russian air defense battlefield environment.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Russia hasn’t been able to destroy Ukraine’s current air force made up of old MIGS and their air defenses have had numerous embarrassing incidents but old F16s would be no challenge to them? They’re not going to magically give Ukraine control over the sky but anyone arguing they aren’t going to be a nightmare for Russia’s air force and air defense is being disingenuous

(Edit: Oh wait I should known better the author of jaichind‘s article is a pro-Russian hack lol that explains the disingenuous claims about the F-16 capabilities vs Russia)

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1723058690561847760
Holy moly his claims of equipment losses match up with visually confirmed open sources so the causality figures are probably accurate 😱

[Landslide Lyndon]

I hope jaichind and co get paid their weight in rubles because cluttering the thread with all these laughable propaganda pieces must be quite exhausting.

[NOVA Green]

I hope jaichind and co get paid their weight in rubles because cluttering the thread with all these laughable propaganda pieces must be quite exhausting.

The ignore button is a wonderful thing, which generally I am reticent to do for protracted periods of time.

However in this particular case, it definitely makes the thread much more readable.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile as someone who has taken for the most part a voluntary time out from posting on this thread I do still check in on a regular basis.

Surprised to see nobody appears to have mentioned Ukrainian forces have been developing a small beachhead across the Dnipro river East of Kherson City.

Here are a few non-paywalled articles...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/11/08/amphibious-tractors-with-tank-engines-the-secret-weapons-of-ukraines-river-crossing-offensive/?sh=3739962915b2

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/11/07/first-ukrainian-marines-secured-a-bridgehead-across-the-dnipro-river-now-theyre-shuttling-armored-vehicles-across/?sh=48a93ab6f496

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/23779

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/hints-of-a-military-breakthrough-for-ukraine-overshadowed-by-concerns-about-the-future-1.7024150

[Hindsight was 2020]

Wrong thread Vosem

[Vosem]

Wrong thread Vosem

whoopsie-daisie, my b

[Landslide Lyndon]

I hope jaichind and co get paid their weight in rubles because cluttering the thread with all these laughable propaganda pieces must be quite exhausting.

The ignore button is a wonderful thing, which generally I am reticent to do for protracted periods of time.

However in this particular case, it definitely makes the thread much more readable.

I have him on ignore, which has indeed made this thread tolerable, but I still see his posts when other people quote him.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I hope jaichind and co get paid their weight in rubles because cluttering the thread with all these laughable propaganda pieces must be quite exhausting.

The ignore button is a wonderful thing, which generally I am reticent to do for protracted periods of time.

However in this particular case, it definitely makes the thread much more readable.

I have him on ignore, which has indeed made this thread tolerable, but I still see his posts when other people quote him.

That’s why I never quote him when I respond to something he said. You’re welcome

[lfromnj]

I hope jaichind and co get paid their weight in rubles because cluttering the thread with all these laughable propaganda pieces must be quite exhausting.

The post above you is quoting the general of the Ukrainian army claiming 10k Russians were killed in one location in 3 weeks. Totally not propaganda though unlike regular Western media posts which Jaichind posts

[CityofSinners]

I hope jaichind and co get paid their weight in rubles because cluttering the thread with all these laughable propaganda pieces must be quite exhausting.

The post above you is quoting the general of the Ukrainian army claiming 10k Russians were killed in one location in 3 weeks.

The original message didn't say killed but loss of manpower. Which is commonly used for both killed, wounded and captured. Which makes the 10k number high but not implausible considering how little russians care about their low quality soldiers.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I hope jaichind and co get paid their weight in rubles because cluttering the thread with all these laughable propaganda pieces must be quite exhausting.

The post above you is quoting the general of the Ukrainian army claiming 10k Russians were killed in one location in 3 weeks. Totally not propaganda though unlike regular Western media posts which Jaichind posts

As cityofsinners said it’s total loss but Noel mixed that up also as I mentioned the other figures he mentioned are in line with visual confirmed losses

[NOVA Green]

I hope jaichind and co get paid their weight in rubles because cluttering the thread with all these laughable propaganda pieces must be quite exhausting.

The post above you is quoting the general of the Ukrainian army claiming 10k Russians were killed in one location in 3 weeks. Totally not propaganda though unlike regular Western media posts which Jaichind posts

As cityofsinners said it’s total loss but Noel mixed that up also as I mentioned the other figures he mentioned are in line with visual confirmed losses

Well I think that generally most of on this thread can agree not to automatically trust casualty figures and loss of military hardware.

It is also true that in a war of attrition loss of manpower / hardware does not automatically confer advantage to the side with is attriting the other at higher levels.

Perception of victory also counts... quite frankly if Ukraine were to establish a significant bridgehead of the Snipro East of Kherson City where armored units can move in force, the terrain actually tends to favor Ukraine, since the marshy terrain is not capable of supporting the same type of trench based Russian defensive layers.

I would imagine a significant loss of Russian occupied territory in Kherson Province would certainly amount to a PR victory in Washington where a significant faction of a certain political party is getting "Weak on Russia" when it comes to funding UKR military $$$.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I hope jaichind and co get paid their weight in rubles because cluttering the thread with all these laughable propaganda pieces must be quite exhausting.

The post above you is quoting the general of the Ukrainian army claiming 10k Russians were killed in one location in 3 weeks. Totally not propaganda though unlike regular Western media posts which Jaichind posts

As cityofsinners said it’s total loss but Noel mixed that up also as I mentioned the other figures he mentioned are in line with visual confirmed losses

Well I think that generally most of on this thread can agree not to automatically trust casualty figures and loss of military hardware.

It is also true that in a war of attrition loss of manpower / hardware does not automatically confer advantage to the side with is attriting the other at higher levels.

Perception of victory also counts... quite frankly if Ukraine were to establish a significant bridgehead of the Snipro East of Kherson City where armored units can move in force, the terrain actually tends to favor Ukraine, since the marshy terrain is not capable of supporting the same type of trench based Russian defensive layers.

I would imagine a significant loss of Russian occupied territory in Kherson Province would certainly amount to a PR victory in Washington where a significant faction of a certain political party is getting "Weak on Russia" when it comes to funding UKR military $$$.

I still have my doubts about the crossing Kherson campaign getting serious as being able to move a significant amount of men and equipment over the river to sustain a serious breakthrough will be difficult

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-10/eu-says-highly-unlikely-it-will-meet-ammo-pledge-to-ukraine

"EU Says Highly Unlikely It Will Meet Ammunition Pledge to Ukraine"

[Hindsight was 2020]

Happy 1 year anniversary of Kherson’s liberation 🎉

[bilaps]

I hope jaichind and co get paid their weight in rubles because cluttering the thread with all these laughable propaganda pieces must be quite exhausting.

The post above you is quoting the general of the Ukrainian army claiming 10k Russians were killed in one location in 3 weeks. Totally not propaganda though unlike regular Western media posts which Jaichind posts

Somehow Russia lost 10000 men, hundreds of vehicles, 7 planes (without one visual evidence of those planes btw) and still manages to continue it's offensive and gains territory daily.

https://twitter.com/Pouletvolant3/status/1723275532282786132

Map by pro-ukrainian sources btw.

And when I see Zaluzhny mentioning Avdeevka at all, it makes me think Ukrainians will withdraw earlier than we thought.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1723363175062536319?s=46&t=ZHeS7rMUpmBPth...
Nice to see Germany stepping up 😁

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/nordstream-bombing-ukraine-chervinsky/

"Ukrainian military officer coordinated Nord Stream pipeline attack"

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/nordstream-bombing-ukraine-chervinsky/

"Ukrainian military officer coordinated Nord Stream pipeline attack"

What happened to being skeptical of what the Washington Post reports?

The Washington Post reported it.  I am happy for the "liar" to be the Washington Post who printed an article without digging into how authentic the story is.  Of course that would just mean that one should be skeptical of what Washington Post and other collective West MSM reports on the war which I think is the case anyway.