Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

All information I don’t like is bias and fake!-poster who cites hack pro-Russian sources

No, your last "information" about alleged hill was proven wrong. So, why would someone beleive these claims without a shred of evidence? I shared videos or pictures, it really doesn't matter whether they were posted by Russian sources or pro Russian because there are pictures and videos, not just text claims.

I explained this so many times, yet you fail to understand common sense.

Sauce? Also videos aren’t solid proof when the people you’re citing have been caught in the past falsely using old videos or videos geolocated to not be where they said it was to falsely use as proof of Russian gains and UA losses

You claimed that the drone video targeting the flag pole on the hill is a confirmation that Russians didn't take the hill. Then, you claimed that maps from pro Ukrainian sources still have the hill under UA control. Only in the next few days when they eventually came around to the loss, you said they withdrew that night. Of course, nobody is going to admit they were wrong and probably they lost it couple days prior to that.

But, you need to accept one thing for your own good. If a video comes out of Russians destroying Leopard tank, or Russians taking control of some hill or a town it is going to come out from Russian army units or from Russian TG channels which are wait for it, pro Russian. That video is not going to come out of Zelensky's presidential office twitter account.

Today, some pro Russian channels are claiming that Russians are storming the coke plant and many people are sharing it on twitter. Yet, I see no reputable channel which I believe that supports that claim or I see any video evidence of such claim, so I don't post it or spread it. You, otoh, are posting claims by Ukrainian MOD which are greatly exaggarated and some guy on a twitter without any evidence in video. That's the difference.  

Im aware of this fact my problem is you constantly attacking me and others for being bias when you do nothing but post bias pro-Russia news that have less credibility than the sources I normally cite.

For example? What did I quote that wasn't true?

Attacking Deepstate as a bias source and then citing Suriyakmaps who had to backtrack half of the Avdiivka advances they reported comes to mind

You really don't understand or you're playing dumb. I asked for a quote that WASN'T true. Particular quote.

In this case Suriyak was right, deepstate was just late.

Suriyak wasn’t right, Russia didn’t advance that far on Day 1 and they even backtracked that

[bilaps]

This was on like day 7 not day 1.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This was on like day 7 not day 1.

First of all no credible Russian sources claimed capture of Stepove or fighting inside Berdichi. They claimed advances there, but the main claim was capturing waste dump hill which is a solid gain given it's importance and fortification. Roepcke doesn't negate that.

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1712239369321394179

You cited Suriyak saying the hill was taken on October 12, the flag vid doesn’t drop until 12 days later on October 24th so no he wasn’t right on the 12th that the hill was taken

[bilaps]

Or maybe they took it and lost it in the meantime, or maybe the video was safe for filming days later. At the end of the day, the hill was taken and there was evidence for that. You didn't provide any evidence otherwise, not for 12th, not for 24th, only that flag pole nonsense. Should've taken L and moved on.

Also, where is evidence of your claim from this morning that Ukrainians are controling it now?

[jaichind]

Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s daughter wore a dress in the colors of Ukraine’s flag and his son wore a Zelensky costume.

This is pretty funny.  This simulates Zelensky's continued asking for cash.  I wonder if Biden will give Blinken's son a $100 billion check
https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1719411854743638261

[jaichind]

"‘Nobody Believes in Our Victory Like I Do.’ Inside Volodymyr Zelensky’s Struggle to Keep Ukraine in the Fight"

It is only getting harder. Twenty months into the war, about a fifth of Ukraine’s territory remains under Russian occupation. Tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians have been killed, and Zelensky can feel during his travels that global interest in the war has slackened. So has the level of international support. “The scariest thing is that part of the world got used to the war in Ukraine,” he says. “Exhaustion with the war rolls along like a wave. You see it in the United States, in Europe. And we see that as soon as they start to get a little tired, it becomes like a show to them: ‘I can’t watch this rerun for the 10th time.’”

In the same article

It has eroded the ranks of Ukraine’s armed forces so badly that draft offices have been forced to call up ever older personnel, raising the average age of a soldier in Ukraine to around 43 years. “They’re grown men now, and they aren’t that healthy to begin with,” says the close aide to Zelensky. “This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia.”

Wow.  43.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

continued asking for cash.

You would know.

[lfromnj]

The reason for the median being so high is also due to the ww2 echo taking place for the youngest men right now.

[NOVA Green]

Interesting how dead this thread is since both Hamas-Israel War plus putting (2-3) s**t posters on ignore from this very thread.

So... appears that significant UKR Beachhead have been established over the river from Kherson City. Putin allegedly sacked a very competent and experienced Russian General in response.

So... appears that "Human Wave" tactics are decimating the forced conscription scene from the militias of D&L in the bloody "Battle for the Trash Heap" referred to it with perhaps might be considered a bit of artistic license.

So... tons of Russian choppers got hit hard (As was actually posted on this thread), but nobody has mentioned that Russia has now abandoned that Mil Base, which will reduce the ability of Russia Air Birds to easily be able to support local tactical ops?

So... saw the news this morning about a Russian Anti-Sub ship on fire outside of the main Russian base in Crimea...

Anyways.... the Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine continues, but don't believe I saw any of these stories mentioned in what was considered a legendary Atlas thread, perhaps hitting the tops of the charts when it comes to total posts?

Whatever... Still stand strong with Ukraine and doesn't matter Democrat or Republican thing to me at all.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So... appears that significant UKR Beachhead have been established over the river from Kherson City. Putin allegedly sacked a very competent and experienced Russian General in response.

I heard about this in another venue a few days ago. Good to hear it's held so far.

[jaichind]

More quotes from the Time magazine article on Zelensky/Ukraine

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The war seems to not be moving much at the moment.

[jaichind]

https://marketnews.com/pm-says-gdp-grew-2-8-in-jan-sep

"PM Says GDP Grew 2.8% in Jan-Sep "

Russia PM says 2023 Jan-Sep Russia GDP expanded 2.8% YoY.  Q1 2023 was -1.8% YoY, Q2 2023 was 4.9% YoY.  For Jan-Sep to be 2.8% YoY then Q3 most likely will come in around 5.3% YoY.  The expected Q4 numbers are expected to come in around 2.8% to 3.0% which would put 2023 Russia's GDP growth at 2.8% or higher.   This is a good deal higher than what Western financial firms and even the Russian Central Bank expect.

This seems to be about the monetary fiscal stimulus of the war economy plus higher-than-expected energy earnings.  Of course, all this means higher inflation which the Russian Central Bank had to raise rates to try to counter.  2024 I expect to be a much slower year for Russia's economy even as the war economy will continue to ramp up given a more restrictive monetary and credit environment to combat inflation.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The Times article still probably touches on some true things but if Arestovych really was one of the main anonymous sources that does throw a lot of the more doom aspects into serious doubt
https://twitter.com/juliasskrs/status/1719465750589485443?s=12

[Open Source Intelligence]

A pretty sad read today in the times about Ukraine’s losses and trouble with corruption inside the recruitment process making it worse😕. Looks like Ukraine is going to have to change up tactics over the winter and going into next year along with hoping the republicans don’t f them
(Edit: also the author in question of this article has a horrible track record on covering this conflict but there is clearly some substance to these topics)
https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/

Read that this morning. Zelenskyy continues being all or nothing. Yes, it's his country and he is morally correct, but since when did morals become a thing in war? You think all these diplomats centuries past negotiating the end of conflicts thought their side had a legal right to the lands they wanted and how dare the other team refuse to recognize that?

Zelenskyy being for everything returned to Ukraine, if he really thinks that behind closed doors, what's the plan to accomplish that that is realistic? Ukrainians taking back Crimea I don't see how that could have ever occurred without other countries' military forces directly involved in the Black Sea, in the skies, and on tIhe ground, instead of simply giving machinery and ammunition.  don't see any forces including ours going into Ukraine.

There's supposed to be a presidential election in 4 months. I see that likely getting suspended until end of hostilities. If Zelenskyy then continues being all or nothing, the war will grind on until either the Ukrainian military collapses due to lack of sufficient foreign support to replenish them or one of Zelenskyy/Putin dies or is ousted in a coup.

If you ask me to place a bet, I look at a negotiated settlement, timeframe of summer 2024 plus or minus a couple months, based on current lines of control because the lines of control have hardly moved the last 18 months, or a minor Russian drawback with a defined in treaty Demilitarized Zone of some kind, and Zelenskyy will give his countrymen the Sold Out Victim Narrative which based on history will manifest itself into something else by the 2040s. If Biden and others in our "Blob" foreign policy world think Trump is too big a threat, even if they think Biden will defeat Trump there's always a good-sized percentage chance he won't (they thought Hillary Clinton would defeat Trump after all), that good-sized percentage chance whatever it is is probably too large a risk for Ukraine and all of Europe looking out into the future and likely endgames..

[Hindsight was 2020]

So Russia did a “ Leeroy Jenkins” run in Kupyansk this morning that went really ugly.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1719703730289856565?s=12

[gerritcole]

Interesting how dead this thread is since both Hamas-Israel War plus putting (2-3) s**t posters on ignore from this very thread.

I think it’s cause the war has stagnated and people are gradually losing interest, see zhelenskiis visits abroad no longer getting the same coverage

Also Israel Palestine rules up the spirits more among the world than this conflict

[Virginiá]

Interesting how dead this thread is since both Hamas-Israel War plus putting (2-3) s**t posters on ignore from this very thread.

I still follow it regularly but the urge to post here to update people on [lots of dead people] or [more equipment that doesn't fundamentally move the needle] is receding. Maybe I'm just getting jaded, but there is also a part of me that doesn't want to keep engaging on this topic because of how utterly negative it is for my mental health and how futile the war effort is starting to look. It doesn't matter to me how many Russian soldiers / equipment are blown up in one suicidal operation after another if the end result is no change in territory and Russia just mobilizes more men and refurbishes more heavy weapons from its seemingly bottomless stockpiles.

[jaichind]

If you ask me to place a bet, I look at a negotiated settlement, timeframe of summer 2024 plus or minus a couple months, based on current lines of control because the lines of control have hardly moved the last 18 months, or a minor Russian drawback with a defined in treaty Demilitarized Zone of some kind, and Zelenskyy will give his countrymen the Sold Out Victim Narrative which based on history will manifest itself into something else by the 2040s. If Biden and others in our "Blob" foreign policy world think Trump is too big a threat, even if they think Biden will defeat Trump there's always a good-sized percentage chance he won't (they thought Hillary Clinton would defeat Trump after all), that good-sized percentage chance whatever it is is probably too large a risk for Ukraine and all of Europe looking out into the future and likely endgames..

I think freezing the conflict with the line of control will work for Russia only if Ukraine also agrees to Russia being able to veto Ukraine joining NATO.  Of course, Zelensky cannot survive a deal like that so the war will go on.  If this war took place 1000 years ago it would have ended already.  In a War of Kings and Dukes, both sides could already figure out some compromise and end this costly war.  In the War of the Peoples, this is no longer possible. 

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I’ve been busier lately, but I also post less here in part because of a decline in the quality and variety of sources. The post-Wagner crackdown on Russian milbloggers means the few who actually posted interesting things are increasingly tight-lipped, and a fair few of the OSINT titans have wound down.

The ensh**ttification of social media hasn’t helped either - image search has gotten worse.

I’ll try to post less about minute-to-minute developments and more about the long war, but I’ve already recommended most of the analysts I find useful here and the value of repetition is limited.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Interesting how dead this thread is since both Hamas-Israel War plus putting (2-3) s**t posters on ignore from this very thread.

I still follow it regularly but the urge to post here to update people on [lots of dead people] or [more equipment that doesn't fundamentally move the needle] is receding. Maybe I'm just getting jaded, but there is also a part of me that doesn't want to keep engaging on this topic because of how utterly negative it is for my mental health and how futile the war effort is starting to look. It doesn't matter to me how many Russian soldiers / equipment are blown up in one suicidal operation after another if the end result is no change in territory and Russia just mobilizes more men and refurbishes more heavy weapons from its seemingly bottomless stockpiles.

I get the feeling especially when I have the unfortunate experience of seeing really gruesome stuff on TG 😕. But there are things that in the big picture to still be optimistic about for Ukraine’s chances going forward into 2025 like them finally getting F16s and Gripen jets to hurt Russia’s air advantages and the ATACMS and clusters gradually becoming a nightmare for Russia strategy

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Interesting how dead this thread is since both Hamas-Israel War plus putting (2-3) s**t posters on ignore from this very thread.

I still follow it regularly but the urge to post here to update people on [lots of dead people] or [more equipment that doesn't fundamentally move the needle] is receding. Maybe I'm just getting jaded, but there is also a part of me that doesn't want to keep engaging on this topic because of how utterly negative it is for my mental health and how futile the war effort is starting to look. It doesn't matter to me how many Russian soldiers / equipment are blown up in one suicidal operation after another if the end result is no change in territory and Russia just mobilizes more men and refurbishes more heavy weapons from its seemingly bottomless stockpiles.

I get the feeling especially when I have the unfortunate experience of seeing really gruesome stuff on TG 😕. But there are things that in the big picture to still be optimistic about for Ukraine’s chances going forward into 2025 like them finally getting F16s and Gripen jets to hurt Russia’s air advantages and the ATACMS and clusters gradually becoming a nightmare for Russia strategy

There are reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic about the Ukrainian position in the conflict (I’ve not been particularly confident either way since last year’s Russian winter offensive), but the bottom line is that there is probably still a long war and occupation ahead with all the suffering that entails. It’s horrific, but it shouldn’t give rise to apathy. There is plenty of good work being to be done which can improve lives there, even in war.

Avoid playing uncensored videos on TG - it simply isn’t worth it. Social media encourages chasing dopamine which leads to very dark places when studying conflicts; it is generally better to channel discontent into positive action.

[jaichind]

The reason for the median being so high is also due to the ww2 echo taking place for the youngest men right now.

I agree that is part of it but a comparison of Ukraine's population pyramid between 2021 and 2023 shows a bunch of young people in their 20s either immigrated or were KIA.  The 2023 pyramid shows that the average age of those serving in the Ukraine military being 43 is not absurd when considering the mode value of Ukraine males is around 40.  There are a lot less males in their 20s to draft versus those in their mid to late 40s.

2023
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine#/media/File:Ukraine_2023_population_pyramid.svg

2021
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_population_pyramid_1.1.2021.png

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interesting how dead this thread is since both Hamas-Israel War plus putting (2-3) s**t posters on ignore from this very thread.

I still follow it regularly but the urge to post here to update people on [lots of dead people] or [more equipment that doesn't fundamentally move the needle] is receding. Maybe I'm just getting jaded, but there is also a part of me that doesn't want to keep engaging on this topic because of how utterly negative it is for my mental health and how futile the war effort is starting to look. It doesn't matter to me how many Russian soldiers / equipment are blown up in one suicidal operation after another if the end result is no change in territory and Russia just mobilizes more men and refurbishes more heavy weapons from its seemingly bottomless stockpiles.

I think you're having your expectations shaped by some bad Western commentary (this is actually something both pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian sources are guilty of). This is clearly an attrition war now, and we should expect that stability on the front will remain the norm for a long time. People who expected a sweeping counteroffensive that would liberate all of occupied Ukraine in one fell swoop were always full of sh*t - that's just not a plausible outcome, or at least it would take orders of magnitude more tanks and artillery shells to make it plausible.

Attrition warfare is bleak and depressing, and it's totally fair to take a break from it for your own mental health, but it's not meaningless. Eventually the strain on resources becomes too much for one side. If the West puts in the resources, it's pretty much mathematically ensured that Russia will exhaust its ability to carry on the war sooner or latter (probably a matter of years, sadly, but still). If Western support weakens, things start looking a lot worse. This is why our collective resolve to support Ukraine should not falter, especially now. In a way, expending great effort in the spur of the moment is the "easy" part. The hard part is sustaining that effort in the long run, long enough to make it actually count. It's doesn't feel grand or glorious, but it is meaningful. So I'd implore everyone who wants Ukraine to win to keep pushing their respective countries to keep up and ideally increase support. Ukrainians don't have the luxury to give in to "fatigue" right now, and neither should we.

[NOVA Green]

Interesting how dead this thread is since both Hamas-Israel War plus putting (2-3) s**t posters on ignore from this very thread.

I still follow it regularly but the urge to post here to update people on [lots of dead people] or [more equipment that doesn't fundamentally move the needle] is receding. Maybe I'm just getting jaded, but there is also a part of me that doesn't want to keep engaging on this topic because of how utterly negative it is for my mental health and how futile the war effort is starting to look. It doesn't matter to me how many Russian soldiers / equipment are blown up in one suicidal operation after another if the end result is no change in territory and Russia just mobilizes more men and refurbishes more heavy weapons from its seemingly bottomless stockpiles.

I think you're having your expectations shaped by some bad Western commentary (this is actually something both pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian sources are guilty of). This is clearly an attrition war now, and we should expect that stability on the front will remain the norm for a long time. People who expected a sweeping counteroffensive that would liberate all of occupied Ukraine in one fell swoop were always full of sh*t - that's just not a plausible outcome, or at least it would take orders of magnitude more tanks and artillery shells to make it plausible.

Attrition warfare is bleak and depressing, and it's totally fair to take a break from it for your own mental health, but it's not meaningless. Eventually the strain on resources becomes too much for one side. If the West puts in the resources, it's pretty much mathematically ensured that Russia will exhaust its ability to carry on the war sooner or latter (probably a matter of years, sadly, but still). If Western support weakens, things start looking a lot worse. This is why our collective resolve to support Ukraine should not falter, especially now. In a way, expending great effort in the spur of the moment is the "easy" part. The hard part is sustaining that effort in the long run, long enough to make it actually count. It's doesn't feel grand or glorious, but it is meaningful. So I'd implore everyone who wants Ukraine to win to keep pushing their respective countries to keep up and ideally increase support. Ukrainians don't have the luxury to give in to "fatigue" right now, and neither should we.

Absolutely agree...

Now thinking I might need to lobby my Republican Congresswoman from OR-CD-05 and tell her to support military spending for UKR, ISRL, TW and plus a few bucks for border security so we can get funds rolling quickly and not involve the risk of separate funding bills.