Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1699779179519349036

The actual reporting is even worse:

Musk’s decision, which left Ukrainian officials begging him to turn the satellites back on, was driven by an acute fear that Russia would respond to a Ukrainian attack on Crimea with nuclear weapons, a fear driven home by Musk’s conversations with senior Russian officials, according to Isaacson, whose new book is set to be released by Simon & Schuster on September 12.

Musk was soon on the phone with President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, the chairman of the joint chiefs, Gen. Mark Milley, and the Russian ambassador to the US to address anxieties from Washington, DC, to Moscow, writes Isaacson.

Meanwhile, Mykhailo Fedorov, a deputy prime minister of Ukraine, was pleading with Musk to restore connectivity for the submarine drones by telling Musk about their capabilities in a text message, according to Isaacson. “I just want you—the person who is changing the world through technology—to know this,” Fedorov told Musk.

If this is true, it seems pretty incontrovertible that Musk has become a security threat to the United States, and something will need to be done about it.

LOL, it's his product, he can do whatever he wants with it. Security threat, someone would think Kim Jong Un or God forbid Putin is talking

“The Pentagon disclosed on Thursday that it has signed a contract to provide SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet service in Ukraine, nearly eight months after Elon Musk, the company's owner, threatened to terminate access unless the U.S. government paid for it.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/starlink-ukraine-pentagon-elon-musk/

I doubt that it is in the con

tract that Elon Musk can shut down the service whenever he wants.

So Elon Musk by providing his private Starlink has probably saved tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives but somehow he must be made a security threat to US and he has to be dealt with, whatever that in some sort of worst dictatorial way.

And to be clear I really don't like Elon Musk.

[jaichind]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russians-are-getting-better-learning

"The Russians Are Getting Better"

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russian-agricultural-bank-could-have-swift-access-within-30-days-un-tells-moscow-2023-09-08/

"Russian Agricultural Bank could have SWIFT access within 30 Days, UN tells Moscow"



This is actually part of the original grain deal anyway which the collective West reneged on.  I guess the UN is saying to Russia that they can make it happen this time if Russia returns to the grain deal.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russian-agricultural-bank-could-have-swift-access-within-30-days-un-tells-moscow-2023-09-08/

"Russian Agricultural Bank could have SWIFT access within 30 Days, UN tells Moscow"



This is actually part of the original grain deal anyway which the collective West reneged on.  I guess the UN is saying to Russia that they can make it happen this time if Russia returns to the grain deal.

De-facto this could be Russian access to SWIFT returning, right? Feels like a good deal for Russia.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russian-agricultural-bank-could-have-swift-access-within-30-days-un-tells-moscow-2023-09-08/

"Russian Agricultural Bank could have SWIFT access within 30 Days, UN tells Moscow"



This is actually part of the original grain deal anyway which the collective West reneged on.  I guess the UN is saying to Russia that they can make it happen this time if Russia returns to the grain deal.

De-facto this could be Russian access to SWIFT returning, right? Feels like a good deal for Russia.

In theory, when the grain deal was done the promise the Russians made was that the Russian Agriculture Bank would only use SWIFT for grain deal transactions.  I am not sure how this was going to be enforced other than "Scouts Honor" by Russia which I guess was the reason why the collective West reneged on this part of the deal.  I think in reality is that if this is opened up then the Russian Agriculture Bank can "piggyback" other key transactions on top of grain trade transactions if this actually gets opened up.

[Virginiá]

US likely to send long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for the first time: Officials

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-send-long-range-atacms-missiles-ukraine-time/story?id=103031722

The Biden administration is likely to send Ukraine long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, to help in its fight to repel the Russian invasion of its territory, according to U.S. officials.

"They are coming," said one official who had access to security assistance plans. The official noted that, as always, such plans are subject to change until officially announced.

A second official said the missiles are "on the table" and likely to be included in an upcoming security assistance package, adding that a final decision has not been made. It could be months before Ukraine receives the missiles, according to the official.

A surprising discovery could also ease the administration's choice to send the weapons: The U.S. has found it has more ATACMS in its inventory than originally assessed, the two officials told ABC News.

The serviceability of the rediscovered stockpile is not yet clear, nor which specific type of missiles it contains. ATACMS come in several forms, from missiles with large high-explosive warheads, to anti-personnel cluster-munition versions that drop hundreds of bomblets on targets.

Who doesn't find dozens or hundreds of extra long range missiles when they check the attic?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1699779179519349036

The actual reporting is even worse:

Musk’s decision, which left Ukrainian officials begging him to turn the satellites back on, was driven by an acute fear that Russia would respond to a Ukrainian attack on Crimea with nuclear weapons, a fear driven home by Musk’s conversations with senior Russian officials, according to Isaacson, whose new book is set to be released by Simon & Schuster on September 12.

Musk was soon on the phone with President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, the chairman of the joint chiefs, Gen. Mark Milley, and the Russian ambassador to the US to address anxieties from Washington, DC, to Moscow, writes Isaacson.

Meanwhile, Mykhailo Fedorov, a deputy prime minister of Ukraine, was pleading with Musk to restore connectivity for the submarine drones by telling Musk about their capabilities in a text message, according to Isaacson. “I just want you—the person who is changing the world through technology—to know this,” Fedorov told Musk.

If this is true, it seems pretty incontrovertible that Musk has become a security threat to the United States, and something will need to be done about it.

LOL, it's his product, he can do whatever he wants with it. Security threat, someone would think Kim Jong Un or God forbid Putin is talking

“The Pentagon disclosed on Thursday that it has signed a contract to provide SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet service in Ukraine, nearly eight months after Elon Musk, the company's owner, threatened to terminate access unless the U.S. government paid for it.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/starlink-ukraine-pentagon-elon-musk/

I doubt that it is in the con

tract that Elon Musk can shut down the service whenever he wants.

So Elon Musk by providing his private Starlink has probably saved tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives but somehow he must be made a security threat to US and he has to be dealt with, whatever that in some sort of worst dictatorial way.

And to be clear I really don't like Elon Musk.

Elon Musk is just providing a service under contract for which the Pentagon is paying for.

[pppolitics]

US likely to send long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for the first time: Officials

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-send-long-range-atacms-missiles-ukraine-time/story?id=103031722

The Biden administration is likely to send Ukraine long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, to help in its fight to repel the Russian invasion of its territory, according to U.S. officials.

"They are coming," said one official who had access to security assistance plans. The official noted that, as always, such plans are subject to change until officially announced.

A second official said the missiles are "on the table" and likely to be included in an upcoming security assistance package, adding that a final decision has not been made. It could be months before Ukraine receives the missiles, according to the official.

A surprising discovery could also ease the administration's choice to send the weapons: The U.S. has found it has more ATACMS in its inventory than originally assessed, the two officials told ABC News.

The serviceability of the rediscovered stockpile is not yet clear, nor which specific type of missiles it contains. ATACMS come in several forms, from missiles with large high-explosive warheads, to anti-personnel cluster-munition versions that drop hundreds of bomblets on targets.

Who doesn't find dozens or hundreds of extra long range missiles when they check the attic?

I just checked my attic and only found a few hundred Iskanders.

[Hindsight was 2020]

US likely to send long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for the first time: Officials

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-send-long-range-atacms-missiles-ukraine-time/story?id=103031722

The Biden administration is likely to send Ukraine long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, to help in its fight to repel the Russian invasion of its territory, according to U.S. officials.

"They are coming," said one official who had access to security assistance plans. The official noted that, as always, such plans are subject to change until officially announced.

A second official said the missiles are "on the table" and likely to be included in an upcoming security assistance package, adding that a final decision has not been made. It could be months before Ukraine receives the missiles, according to the official.

A surprising discovery could also ease the administration's choice to send the weapons: The U.S. has found it has more ATACMS in its inventory than originally assessed, the two officials told ABC News.

The serviceability of the rediscovered stockpile is not yet clear, nor which specific type of missiles it contains. ATACMS come in several forms, from missiles with large high-explosive warheads, to anti-personnel cluster-munition versions that drop hundreds of bomblets on targets.

Who doesn't find dozens or hundreds of extra long range missiles when they check the attic?

Ffs this should of been kept quiet

[CanadianDemocrat]

I'll wait and see on this one.

Too many times were we told that the US is on the verge of sending ATACMS

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1700273302168834195
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1700271181541130440

If the US sends ATACMS, then Germany will likely send their long range Taurus missiles as well. The UK and France were the first Western countries to send long range missiles.

The UK was the also the first country to send Western tanks to Ukraine. Germany refused to send their tanks until the US sent their tanks as well. The US and Germany move in tandem most of the time.

[jaichind]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/08/to-train-ukrainian-troops-the-danish-military-had-to-borrow-leopard-1-tanks-from-three-museums

"To Train Ukrainians, the Danes Had To Borrow Tanks from Three Museums"

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-07/poland-hungary-slovakia-push-for-ukraine-grain-ban-extension

"Poland, Hungary, Slovakia Push for Ukraine Grain Ban Extension"

Most of the EU is against this Poland-led position of banning Ukraine's grain.

https://tvpworld.com/72590300/we-say-no-to-ukrainian-oligarchs-destabilizing-polish-agriculture-market-pm

"We say ‘no’ to Ukrainian oligarchs destabilizing Polish agriculture market: PM"

Polish PM squares the circle of backing Ukraine in the war but still wanting to ban Ukraine's grain is to say that the Ukraine's grain is part of Ukrainian oligarch's attempt to destabilize Polish agriculture.  So it is "I totally support Ukraine,  I am only opposed to Ukraine oligarchs"

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/08/ukraine-worries-west-support-russia-war/

"Fareed Zakaria: Opinion: Ukrainians Are Determined to Persevere, But They Worry That Their Allies Aren’t"

Everyone is exhausted and sober. Ukraine's losses have been terrible, measured both in cities destroyed and soldiers and civilians killed. As a German friend who has lived in Kyiv for years put it to me, "There is growing understanding of loss as part of normalcy. People are adjusting to the reality of knowing more and more people who have been killed or wounded. It's a tough, sad condition."

When you speak with people at greater length, their views are more nuanced. "No surrender" is the mantra, but some said it was possible to imagine a cease-fire — with Ukraine never legally endorsing the legitimacy of Russian rule over parts of Donbas and Crimea — in exchange for real security guarantees. As one Ukrainian politician (who wished to stay unnamed) told me, "It's easy for all of us who have not been in the fighting to refuse to compromise. The real question is what are the attitudes of the soldiers in the field and those who have returned. They might have more nuanced positions. But they will have to articulate them."

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/ukraine/2023/09/07/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates/70783569007/

"Ukraine 'in deep trouble': Some experts say $1B more from US won't matter. Live updates"

You can get "some experts" to say literally anything - especially if they are paid to.

Meanwhile in the real world, Ukraine are now making advances on a daily basis.

In the real world, Ukrainian gains are pretty minor. For example they still don't have FULL control over Robotine.

Cool story bro, how long did it take for Russia to take FULL control of Bakhmut again?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/ukraine/2023/09/07/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates/70783569007/

"Ukraine 'in deep trouble': Some experts say $1B more from US won't matter. Live updates"

You can get "some experts" to say literally anything - especially if they are paid to.

Meanwhile in the real world, Ukraine are now making advances on a daily basis.

In the real world, Ukrainian gains are pretty minor. For example they still don't have FULL control over Robotine.

Cool story bro, how long did it take for Russia to take FULL control of Bakhmut again?

Longer than what most expected. A relatively small, not very important place gained importance thanks to strategies on both sides of the conflict.
What people should keep in mind is that actual territorial control isn't as important as the narrative would have you believe. It's much more about relative amounts of resources expended to take (and hold) things, and the amount of said resources one can call up.

[Red Velvet]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-07/poland-hungary-slovakia-push-for-ukraine-grain-ban-extension

"Poland, Hungary, Slovakia Push for Ukraine Grain Ban Extension"

Most of the EU is against this Poland-led position of banning Ukraine's grain.

https://tvpworld.com/72590300/we-say-no-to-ukrainian-oligarchs-destabilizing-polish-agriculture-market-pm

"We say ‘no’ to Ukrainian oligarchs destabilizing Polish agriculture market: PM"

Polish PM squares the circle of backing Ukraine in the war but still wanting to ban Ukraine's grain is to say that the Ukraine's grain is part of Ukrainian oligarch's attempt to destabilize Polish agriculture.  So it is "I totally support Ukraine,  I am only opposed to Ukraine oligarchs"

But I was told that Eastern Europe has the most solidarity in the entire world for Ukraine?

How they dare have national interests of their own, independently from Ukraine?

Whenever people try to use morality as a main tool to explain and define geopolitics, their hypocrisy always eventually ends up being exposed sooner or later.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-07/poland-hungary-slovakia-push-for-ukraine-grain-ban-extension

"Poland, Hungary, Slovakia Push for Ukraine Grain Ban Extension"

Most of the EU is against this Poland-led position of banning Ukraine's grain.

https://tvpworld.com/72590300/we-say-no-to-ukrainian-oligarchs-destabilizing-polish-agriculture-market-pm

"We say ‘no’ to Ukrainian oligarchs destabilizing Polish agriculture market: PM"

Polish PM squares the circle of backing Ukraine in the war but still wanting to ban Ukraine's grain is to say that the Ukraine's grain is part of Ukrainian oligarch's attempt to destabilize Polish agriculture.  So it is "I totally support Ukraine,  I am only opposed to Ukraine oligarchs"

But I was told that Eastern Europe has the most solidarity in the entire world for Ukraine?

How they dare have national interests of their own, independently from Ukraine?

Whenever people try to use morality as a main tool to explain and define geopolitics, their hypocrisy always eventually ends up being exposed sooner or later.

So much of geopolitics can be tied to economic interests, and this is the economic interests of Poland speaking. This outweighs the real solidarity for Ukraine that Poland has. And to be clear, there is considerable amounts of it.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1700428743049642392?s=20
Another day of Russian artillery getting wrecked

[bilaps]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/ukraine/2023/09/07/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates/70783569007/

"Ukraine 'in deep trouble': Some experts say $1B more from US won't matter. Live updates"

You can get "some experts" to say literally anything - especially if they are paid to.

Meanwhile in the real world, Ukraine are now making advances on a daily basis.

In the real world, Ukrainian gains are pretty minor. For example they still don't have FULL control over Robotine.

Cool story bro, how long did it take for Russia to take FULL control of Bakhmut again?

It's not a story bro, it's a fact, like it or not. Bakhmut would take less if Ukraine didn't pull reserves from other directions and in a process weakend their southern offensive. Bakhmut obviously being a city, while Ukrainian army is nowhere close to those gains in it's southern offensive. How many people lived in a biggest village they took this summer, 2000?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1700428743049642392?s=20
Another day of Russian artillery getting wrecked

One can say the Russians and the Ukrainians are their mutual most prolific trainers.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-09/g-20-leaders-agree-on-summit-communique-india-s-modi-says

G-20 Hails Compromise on War Wording That Angers Ukraine 

The latest text removed a reference to “the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine” used last year when citing a UN resolution. While this year’s statement mentioned the resolution, it didn’t quote from it directly.  

The US and other Group of Seven nations also praised the outcome, rejecting assertions that it watered down support for Ukraine.

Russia’s chief negotiator, Svetlana Lukash, also praised the agreed text on Ukraine as “balanced,” the result of “very difficult” negotiations, according to a video from state news agency Tass.

Basically the same G-20 Communique from last year with slight wording changes that is a slight "swing toward Russia."

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1700603085796585638

[Red Velvet]

I don’t get why G20 or every single group has to mention Ukraine conflict even when it’s out of their sphere of action.

Discuss this at the UN or create a forum specifically for the Ukraine War, where a bunch of 3rd countries + both Russia and Ukraine are invited to participate.

[Aurelius2]

I don’t get why G20 or every single group has to mention Ukraine conflict even when it’s out of their sphere of action.

Discuss this at the UN or create a forum specifically for the Ukraine War, where a bunch of 3rd countries + both Russia and Ukraine are invited to participate.

No, Russia should not be invited to forums on the naked war of aggression it launched. Third Worldism is a malignant cancer.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/more-than-420-000-russian-troops-in-occupied-areas-ukraine-101694288904770.html

"More than 420,000 Russian troops in occupied areas: Ukraine"

Ukraine Deputy Intelligence Chief estimates around 420K Russian troops in Ukraine.