Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1687640372703641600

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Right. I don't understand why you are obsessed with the wealth of the Chinese diaspora when this issue is irrelevant to the notorious Hoa.

Because they were also a wealthy minority who at times were accused of being disloyal, similar to the Jews in Europe or the Indians in Africa? And because official propaganda from a totalitarian dictatorship targeting an ethnic minority shouldn't be taken at face value? Because the tales of the boat people who made it to the West tell otherwise?

If you want to take this position regardless of historical evidence, then you have to extend your morality to the Russian collaborators of the Kremlin in Ukraine. Welcome.

I think you will begin to take Chinese efforts to create their agents seriously as soon as you stop considering the PRC a great friend and ally of the US. Yes, when the USSR lived out its days, the PRC was indeed a great friend and ally of the US and a great enemy of the USSR, but it's time for you to take off your amazing rose-colored glasses, since the situation has changed somewhat, by about 180 degrees.

And I must tell you a secret, although you most likely will not believe it: the PRC is a totalitarian dictatorship and always has been. And even when the PRC carried out a treacherous attack on fraternal Vietnam, the PRC was a totalitarian dictatorship. I have not heard that the Jews and the Romani people in the Third Reich had a huge powerful country with a totalitarian dictatorship that attacked the Third Reich. If you want to say that Russians in Ukraine do not have it either, I cannot agree with you.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/putin-signs-law-windfall-tax-2023-08-04/

"Putin signs law on windfall tax"

Russian federal budget is clearly under stress as military spending continues to ramp up.  The Russian government plans a budget deficit of 2% of GDP which I think is not possible to reach.  It seems Putin is going to impose a one-time windfall profit tax to try to rope in some extra cash.

Russia's  National Welfare Fund has around 5% of GDP in reserve which should be able to help deal with a surge in the deficit.   I figure another 15% of GDP is available in the Russian banking sector for the Russian government to borrow from but just like the USA in the late 1960s that will risk crowding out private investment.   I can see the logic of trying to do some one-off tax increase before having to dip into the National Welfare Fund or ramp up borrowing from the Russian banking sector.  

I figure the way things are going from a fiscal point of view this war will have to be wound up in 3 years or so before real hard choices have to be made all of which just leads to an inflationary surge and/or significant tax increases.

It is unlikely that the well-being of Russia worries the Kremlin, otherwise it would just not invade Ukraine. As with other Putin wars, and as with the aforementioned Sino-Vietnamese conflict, there is no scenario to end the war in a definite number of years. Only the Ukrainian army is capable of forcing the Kremlin to end the war soon.

[Storr]

It's very likely damaged beyond economical repair. The Ropucha class landing ships were built in communist Poland, so Russia was running low on parts for them already. The Olenegorsky Gornyak is the oldest ship in the class still in service as well, having been commissioned on June 30th, 1976.

https://twitter.com/stavridisj/status/1687434324281327616?s=20

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

IReality is that Ukraine is not getting anything major back through military means. That door closed the moment Russia signed it's partial mobilization.

Reality is that the (Vietnamese/Afghans) are not going to take control of the whole of their country's territory from the (Americans/Soviets). That door closed the moment a superpower decided to commit to large scale troop deployments and send large numbers of conscripts to fight, showing a real permanent commitment to the war effort.

I mean imagine it, the Vietnamese/Afghans beating the Americans/Soviets. LOL!!! Never gonna happen. They had better sue for peace on whatever terms the superpower deigns to offer to them.

Dude it’s the Russian military! They have endless manpower which is why they win every war they are in. Expect for the Russo-Japanese war, WW1, the Polish-Soviet war, the Vlora incident, Afghanistan twice (little known 1929 intervention and the more well known 1980’s one), and the first Chechen war. Actually now thinking about it Russia has a sh*tty modern military history despite its size and manpower

To this we can add that in the WWII the Nazis were one step away from capturing Moscow, but thanks to the help of the West in volumes that modern Ukraine cannot even dream of, Moscow managed to start winning after two years of defeats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

IReality is that Ukraine is not getting anything major back through military means. That door closed the moment Russia signed it's partial mobilization.

Reality is that the (Vietnamese/Afghans) are not going to take control of the whole of their country's territory from the (Americans/Soviets). That door closed the moment a superpower decided to commit to large scale troop deployments and send large numbers of conscripts to fight, showing a real permanent commitment to the war effort.

I mean imagine it, the Vietnamese/Afghans beating the Americans/Soviets. LOL!!! Never gonna happen. They had better sue for peace on whatever terms the superpower deigns to offer to them.

Dude it’s the Russian military! They have endless manpower which is why they win every war they are in. Expect for the Russo-Japanese war, WW1, the Polish-Soviet war, the Vlora incident, Afghanistan twice (little known 1929 intervention and the more well known 1980’s one), and the first Chechen war. Actually now thinking about it Russia has a sh*tty modern military history despite its size and manpower

To this we can add that in the WWII the Nazis were one step away from capturing Moscow, but thanks to the help of the West in volumes that modern Ukraine cannot even dream of, Moscow managed to start winning after two years of defeats.

This is probably too dismissive towards the Red Army, though it's true that the West's aid was quite important for Soviets to make it.
The Red Army was hugely successful in cosigning the Kwantung Army to the dustbin of history...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1687249520285855745

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

IReality is that Ukraine is not getting anything major back through military means. That door closed the moment Russia signed it's partial mobilization.

Reality is that the (Vietnamese/Afghans) are not going to take control of the whole of their country's territory from the (Americans/Soviets). That door closed the moment a superpower decided to commit to large scale troop deployments and send large numbers of conscripts to fight, showing a real permanent commitment to the war effort.

I mean imagine it, the Vietnamese/Afghans beating the Americans/Soviets. LOL!!! Never gonna happen. They had better sue for peace on whatever terms the superpower deigns to offer to them.

Dude it’s the Russian military! They have endless manpower which is why they win every war they are in. Expect for the Russo-Japanese war, WW1, the Polish-Soviet war, the Vlora incident, Afghanistan twice (little known 1929 intervention and the more well known 1980’s one), and the first Chechen war. Actually now thinking about it Russia has a sh*tty modern military history despite its size and manpower

To this we can add that in the WWII the Nazis were one step away from capturing Moscow, but thanks to the help of the West in volumes that modern Ukraine cannot even dream of, Moscow managed to start winning after two years of defeats.

This is probably too dismissive towards the Red Army, though it's true that the West's aid was quite important for Soviets to make it.
The Red Army was hugely successful in cosigning the Kwantung Army to the dustbin of history...

This was done not only after pumping the USSR with aid, but even after the surrender of Germany. However, the Russians always successfully beat the Manchus, yes.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

The euro exchange rate is 103-106 rubles. We are here.

https://www.banki.ru/products/currency/eur/

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Putin Signs Law Allowing Asset Freezes of Sanctioned Foreigners
The Moscow Times
Updated: 13 hours ago

President Vladimir Putin on Friday signed a law allowing Russian banks and other financial institutions to block the assets of sanctioned foreign organizations and individuals.

The law allows Moscow to freeze the funds and property of legal entities controlled by foreign citizens and organizations against whom Russia has imposed what it calls “special economic measures.”

It also restricts financial transactions carried out “in the interests” of sanctioned foreigners.

Pawnshops, micro-lenders and bookmakers are listed as some of the other financial institutions that are banned from performing operations with sanctioned foreigners.

Russia’s Central Bank is authorized to slap six-month restrictions on these financial institutions if they are found in violation of the “special economic measures.”

...In April, Putin authorized the expropriation of foreign-owned assets in response to the seizure and freezing of Russian assets abroad in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
...

[2952-0-0]

I think you will begin to take Chinese efforts to create their agents seriously as soon as you stop considering the PRC a great friend and ally of the US. Yes, when the USSR lived out its days, the PRC was indeed a great friend and ally of the US and a great enemy of the USSR, but it's time for you to take off your amazing rose-colored glasses, since the situation has changed somewhat, by about 180 degrees.

And I must tell you a secret, although you most likely will not believe it: the PRC is a totalitarian dictatorship and always has been. And even when the PRC carried out a treacherous attack on fraternal Vietnam, the PRC was a totalitarian dictatorship. I have not heard that the Jews and the Romani people in the Third Reich had a huge powerful country with a totalitarian dictatorship that attacked the Third Reich. If you want to say that Russians in Ukraine do not have it either, I cannot agree with you.

Your initial post accused *all* of the ethnic Chinese minority in Vietnam of being spies and saboteurs for the PRC after the fall of Saigon. I disproved this, given that 1) they had a greater attachment to the KMT on Taiwan 2) the testimony of the Boat People contradicted this 3) PRC state policy at the time viewed (and still views) the Chinese diaspora as potential counterrevolutionaries. So, it's factually incorrect, and worse, is propaganda from a totalitarian dictatorship.

Hence, it's no different from Hitler's accusations against Jews and Romani; or Stalin's accusations against Germans, Tatars, Chechens, Kalmyks (many of whom involuntarily became the ancestors of your neighbours); or Pol Pot's accusations against the Chinese (who especially targeted them in his genocide while he was dependent on the PRC, further proving my point about PRC policy towards the diaspora); or Idi Amin's accusations against Indians, and on and on.

In fact, PRC policy towards its diaspora has still not changed in its essence: it still fundamentally views them as a subversive influence (such as myself, when I befriended a Party Youth League leader as a teenager, and years later after he became a Party member, I had interesting conversations). Why? Because anything not under its control is a threat. That's why much of its overseas efforts are targeted at neutralizing subversive elements from the diaspora. This has had some success: the traditional Chinese-language media and cultural associations abroad are almost completely under the influence of the PRC. That might be successful at influencing some older members of the diaspora who might have trouble fitting into the local society. But it can't stop the proliferation of YouTube and Telegram channels which are clearly getting under the skin of the CCP leadership. Nor can it address the fact that the younger members of the diaspora - wherever they are - have a worldview and lifestyle that's close to indistinguishable from that of the US center-left white upper-middle-class. They listen to Taylor Swift, study hard in the hopes of going to an Ivy League school, tweet about the latest social issue in the US, and so on. They view the PRC as an uncouth country bumpkin cousin who struck it rich as a mob boss, drives to high-class social events in a Lambourghini while wearing designer clothing, demands respect, and then lashes out when it isn't given.

And, just like with any mob boss, Beijing's primary way of cultivating influence abroad is not through ideology or kinship (in fact, in true Marxist fashion, it views these with contempt), but through the big bucks. And it doesn't matter what race, religion, ethnicity, or whatever else you have. It had no better agent of influence in the world than Wall Street, after all. Only when the big bucks stopped flowing due to the CCP's misrule, did Wall Street's attitudes begin to change.

Finally, one must wonder whether the Nazi ideology that portrays "Asiatic hordes" as a borg-like barbarian and subhuman mass has implanted itself into the consciousness of Russian liberals - even those who profess opposition to Russian-fascism - to a larger extent than they would like to admit.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1687585846445125632?s=20
Looks like it might’ve been this big Russian tanker that got hit. Ukraine is sending a message the last 24 hours. The Black Sea is not Russias lake


EDIT: 1000 pages. Wow… the fact that we’re here after “Kyiv will fall in 72 hours” is a testament to the brave warriors in the AFU.

May victory be achieved and Putin depart for hell by the time we reach 2K

Beautiful:

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1687694633248096257?s=20

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I think you will begin to take Chinese efforts to create their agents seriously as soon as you stop considering the PRC a great friend and ally of the US. Yes, when the USSR lived out its days, the PRC was indeed a great friend and ally of the US and a great enemy of the USSR, but it's time for you to take off your amazing rose-colored glasses, since the situation has changed somewhat, by about 180 degrees.

And I must tell you a secret, although you most likely will not believe it: the PRC is a totalitarian dictatorship and always has been. And even when the PRC carried out a treacherous attack on fraternal Vietnam, the PRC was a totalitarian dictatorship. I have not heard that the Jews and the Romani people in the Third Reich had a huge powerful country with a totalitarian dictatorship that attacked the Third Reich. If you want to say that Russians in Ukraine do not have it either, I cannot agree with you.

Your initial post accused *all* of the ethnic Chinese minority in Vietnam of being spies and saboteurs for the PRC after the fall of Saigon. I disproved this, given that 1) they had a greater attachment to the KMT on Taiwan 2) the testimony of the Boat People contradicted this 3) PRC state policy at the time viewed (and still views) the Chinese diaspora as potential counterrevolutionaries. So, it's factually incorrect, and worse, is propaganda from a totalitarian dictatorship.

Hence, it's no different from Hitler's accusations against Jews and Romani; or Stalin's accusations against Germans, Tatars, Chechens, Kalmyks (many of whom involuntarily became the ancestors of your neighbours); or Pol Pot's accusations against the Chinese (who especially targeted them in his genocide while he was dependent on the PRC, further proving my point about PRC policy towards the diaspora); or Idi Amin's accusations against Indians, and on and on.

In fact, PRC policy towards its diaspora has still not changed in its essence: it still fundamentally views them as a subversive influence (such as myself, when I befriended a Party Youth League leader as a teenager, and years later after he became a Party member, I had interesting conversations). Why? Because anything not under its control is a threat. That's why much of its overseas efforts are targeted at neutralizing subversive elements from the diaspora. This has had some success: the traditional Chinese-language media and cultural associations abroad are almost completely under the influence of the PRC. That might be successful at influencing some older members of the diaspora who might have trouble fitting into the local society. But it can't stop the proliferation of YouTube and Telegram channels which are clearly getting under the skin of the CCP leadership. Nor can it address the fact that the younger members of the diaspora - wherever they are - have a worldview and lifestyle that's close to indistinguishable from that of the US center-left white upper-middle-class. They listen to Taylor Swift, study hard in the hopes of going to an Ivy League school, tweet about the latest social issue in the US, and so on. They view the PRC as an uncouth country bumpkin cousin who struck it rich as a mob boss, drives to high-class social events in a Lambourghini while wearing designer clothing, demands respect, and then lashes out when it isn't given.

And, just like with any mob boss, Beijing's primary way of cultivating influence abroad is not through ideology or kinship (in fact, in true Marxist fashion, it views these with contempt), but through the big bucks. And it doesn't matter what race, religion, ethnicity, or whatever else you have. It had no better agent of influence in the world than Wall Street, after all. Only when the big bucks stopped flowing due to the CCP's misrule, did Wall Street's attitudes begin to change.

Finally, one must wonder whether the Nazi ideology that portrays "Asiatic hordes" as a borg-like barbarian and subhuman mass has implanted itself into the consciousness of Russian liberals - even those who profess opposition to Russian-fascism - to a larger extent than they would like to admit.

You don't have to worry about the opinion of Russian liberals about the use of the Chinese diaspora in the war of the Chinese against the Vietnamese, since almost all of them have not even heard of this war. I know something about it, but I'm not a liberal and I'm not completely Russian.

Yes, I know about this from biased Soviet sources, but I can't trust pro-Chinese sources on this issue at all, and the West at that time was pro-Chinese. Therefore, I believe that the truth in that war is somewhere in the middle between pro-Soviet propaganda and pro-Chinese. But anyway, I would be infinitely surprised if the Chinese diaspora, which the Vietnamese just plundered, following the Marxist ideology, would not try to give back to the Vietnamese and dutifully endure "nationalization" and "expropriation". I did not claim that the entire Chinese diaspora in Vietnam was recruited by the PRC. You are the one who claims that absolutely none of it was an agent of the PRC. And it is obvious to anyone who has spent more than a couple of days on Earth that this statement cannot be true.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/08/04/eight-ukrainian-pilots-ready-to-train-on-f-16s-00109827

"Eight Ukrainian pilots ready to train on F-16s"

It seems the intersection set of qualified Ukrainian pilots with good working knowledge of English to make F-16 training possible so far is 8.  Another 20 first need to learn English first before starting F-16 training.

[smoltchanov]

to Oleg: i am a liberal, 50% Russian,  and i know about Chinese-Vietnam war))))

[CumbrianLefty]

1000 pages completed, I wonder how many more before this is over.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

to Oleg: i am a liberal, 50% Russian,  and i know about Chinese-Vietnam war))))

Sino-Vietnamese War has been discussed several times here. Anyway, I did not mean specifically you, but the community that I know from personal communication and the media. These guys are too focused on Russia and the West to be interested in China. Even the ruscists, who suddenly stopped insultingly calling the Chinese китаезы and began to portray immeasurable love for them, are immersed in the history and culture of the Western world, and many years must pass before they become familiar with China not only about snack bars and saunas.

[jaichind]

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-disable-sophisticated-us-missiles-used-ukraine-gps-useless-report-2023-8

"Russia is jamming 'sophisticated' US weapons being used in Ukraine, making them useless, report says"

Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute, a US think tank, told BBC News that Russia's electronic-warfare capability had significantly improved during the conflict with Ukraine.

Looks like after the war Russia will be able to have a good export market for the electronic-warfare weapons it is developing and refining as part of this war.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1687793861371072512?s=12

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1687822995744579585?s=12
I’m very interested to see what comes out of this summit considering who’s participating (and who’s noticeably not lol)

[Torie]

Why is SA doing this again? I ask because they last thing it did was prop Putin up by cutting oil production. Is it because they are annoyed that Putin is cheating in the deal by exceeding his quota or something else?

How dependent is Russia on the Black Sea for trade? Up go the insurance rates anyway, way up.

[oldtimer]

IReality is that Ukraine is not getting anything major back through military means. That door closed the moment Russia signed it's partial mobilization.

Reality is that the (Vietnamese/Afghans) are not going to take control of the whole of their country's territory from the (Americans/Soviets). That door closed the moment a superpower decided to commit to large scale troop deployments and send large numbers of conscripts to fight, showing a real permanent commitment to the war effort.

I mean imagine it, the Vietnamese/Afghans beating the Americans/Soviets. LOL!!! Never gonna happen. They had better sue for peace on whatever terms the superpower deigns to offer to them.

Dude it’s the Russian military! They have endless manpower which is why they win every war they are in. Expect for the Russo-Japanese war, WW1, the Polish-Soviet war, the Vlora incident, Afghanistan twice (little known 1929 intervention and the more well known 1980’s one), and the first Chechen war. Actually now thinking about it Russia has a sh*tty modern military history despite its size and manpower

To this we can add that in the WWII the Nazis were one step away from capturing Moscow, but thanks to the help of the West in volumes that modern Ukraine cannot even dream of, Moscow managed to start winning after two years of defeats.

This is probably too dismissive towards the Red Army, though it's true that the West's aid was quite important for Soviets to make it.
The Red Army was hugely successful in cosigning the Kwantung Army to the dustbin of history...

Russia has never won a war on it's own, except the 1877 Russo-Turkish War.

Even the defeat of Napoleon was funded by Britain.

It's due to cultural issues.
Like Germans being aggressive, organising, and obedient.

Most Russian Tsars where German, but their subjects where definitely not, so Russia has always been a disorganised mess of a country.

I'm quite certain that if Hitler had been more lenient towards slavs and jews, he would have won WW2, because the entire Soviet Population would have preferred him over Stalin.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Why is SA doing this again? I ask because they last thing it did was prop Putin up by cutting oil production. Is it because they are annoyed that Putin is cheating in the deal by exceeding his quota or something else?

There is at least something Gothic in the phrase "deal with the Devil", but "deal with Putin" sounds just ridiculous. The Saudis have to keep some new Emir Khattabs in their sleeves, when they're doing it.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm quite certain that if Hitler had been more lenient towards slavs and jews, he would have won WW2, because the entire Soviet Population would have preferred him over Stalin.

Yes, but then he would no longer have been Hitler.

Which makes it an even more pointlless hypothetical than usual tbh.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Russia has never won a war on it's own, except the 1877 Russo-Turkish War.

Even the defeat of Napoleon was funded by Britain.

It's due to cultural issues.
Like Germans being aggressive, organising, and obedient.

Most Russian Tsars where German, but their subjects where definitely not, so Russia has always been a disorganised mess of a country.

I'm quite certain that if Hitler had been more lenient towards slavs and jews, he would have won WW2, because the entire Soviet Population would have preferred him over Stalin.

Well, this is how Hitler talked about the Russians and their monarchs in Mein Kampf. And then the Russians ruled half of Germany.

As for the fact that the Soviet people might prefer Hitler, it really is. And in the USSR, massive anti-Soviet armies arose, the largest of which was represented by Russian nationalists. Even the Russian Orthodox Church supported Hitler. Unfortunately for Hitler, the real a**holity level of the Nazis kept up with how it was portrayed in the rampant Marxist propaganda. Why not start making demeaning theories about the Germans because of this?

It's all right when a nation has an unsuccessful military history. It's bad when a nation tries to sh** under the doors of everyone around, like modern Russia or Third Reich. Then the history of how others have stopped this nation before becomes important for its victims.