Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[smoltchanov]

I saw that map. It was satirical, of course, but it reflects a lot about feeling of "median Russian" (especially - in province). They were told 74 years of USSR (may be - minus 1985-1991, but even then - .....) that they are "the greatest power in the world" (ad surely - "the most progressive"). And essentially the same since at least 2008. 23 years in between is simply not enough....

I would add on my own that among Kazakhstani Russians, the difference between Soviet times + 1990s and 2000s + 2010s years is expressed mainly in the fact that they stopped insulting Kazakhs with the N-word "kalbit" and began to insult them with the N-word "mambet".

Is it a "big progress"?))))

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Is it a "big progress"?))))

There would be a progress if the local Russians managed to understand the Western culture of tolerance, as some of the Moscow youth did. It is strange that a communist upbringing has produced far-right xenophobes, while right-wing capitalist countries follow the values of the real left.

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.6%        +3.2%       +1.8%      +4.2%      +3.3%          +1.5%
Dec         -3.3%        +3.2%       +1.9%      +4.3%      +3.0%          +1.4%
Jan          -3.0%        +3.3%       +2.1%      +4.2%      +3.0%          +1.3%
Feb          -2.1%        +3.4%       +2.1%      +4.1%      +3.0%         +1.1%
Mar          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%      +3.0%         +1.0%
April         -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%
May          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%
****************************   Data pretty much locked in ***********************

* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.7%      +4.9%        +1.3%
Dec          -2.7%       -0.1%         +0.3%       -1.0%      +4.8%        +1.3%
Jan           -2.9%        0.0%         +0.5%       -0.9%      +5.1%        +1.3%
Feb          -2.5%       +0.4%        +0.8%       -0.7%      +5.2%        +1.2%
Mar          -1.7%       +0.5%        +1.0%       -0.5%      +5.3%        +1.1%
April         -1.3%       +0.6%        +1.1%       -0.2%      +5.6%        +1.0%
May         -0.6%        +0.6%        +1.1%       +0.1%     +5.6%        +1.0%
June        +0.4%       +0.6%        +1.3%       +0.2%     +5.5%        +1.2%
July         +0.6%       +0.5%        +1.5%       +0.2%     +5.3%        +1.3%

2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.3%
Dec       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.1%          +2.4%
Jan        +13.8%       +8.4%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Feb       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Mar       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
April      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%       +2.0%          +2.5%
May      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%       +2.0%          +2.5%
****************************   Data pretty much locked in ***********************

2022 GDP and CPI locked in. 

Russia and USA's 2023 GDP numbers upgraded while PRC and Eurozone downgraded mostly on recent economic data.
 
Once you take into account that 2021 UK GDP growth got marked down by 0.6% and 2021 Russia GDP growth got marked up by 0.9% one can then construct a total cumulative 2022-2023 GDP loss based on current consensus/result vs 2022 Feb consensus as a percentage of 2021 GDP

(change from June 2023 calculation)
Russia      -5.5% (+0.2%)
Eurozone  -2.6% (-0.1%)
USA         -2.7% (+0.2%)
UK           -2.7% (flat)
PRC          -2.0% (-0.2%)
Japan       -2.2% (+0.1%)

The total economic impact on Russia in 2022-2023 continues to improve.   Outside of Russia PRC's relative record is still the best but they are mostly close to being the same.  If you go by what IMF and Putin say the Russian number will surge some more from here.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Russia is a strange place. A prominent politician saying something like the tweet below is normal on national television.

Imagine a politician from western Europe saying this about the nations which were once part of their country's long dead empire. They'd be considered a crackpot nutjob, laughed out of the room, and never heard from again. Not to mention they'd also immediately be called racist.
 

RUSSIANS: *say unbelievably racist sh**t that wouldn't fly anywhere else*

REST OF WORLD MINUS INDIA: *Doesn't like Russia*

RUSSIANS: WHY DOES EVERYONE HATE US THIS IS RUSSOPHOBIA!!!!!1

LITHUANIA: Lmao f@ck you

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1685577016504958976?s=12
Going from the kraken drone video the Russians are out of Andriivka and are occupied behind the rail line. So we should expect a Andriivka liberation vid to drop soon 

[Torie]

Russia is a strange place. A prominent politician saying something like the tweet below is normal on national television.

Imagine a politician from western Europe saying this about the nations which were once part of their country's long dead empire. They'd be considered a crackpot nutjob, laughed out of the room, and never heard from again. Not to mention they'd also immediately be called racist.

https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1685464579168755712?s=20
 

Well, that was an interesting discussion. That Tolstoy guy is spot on when he observed that it’s down to us or them. Ukraine so hates Russia that it needs to be destroyed for Russia to get it back (with the fate of the Ukrainians who won’t fit in ominous). We need to get our people to understand that their very existence is at stake, either the Ukrainians are destroyed or we are.

The problem says the bald one with the bizarre shirt however is how to defeat the West. Enter Africa. Hey in 20 years Nigeria and Egypt will be economic giants. We need to get them into the Russian orbit and they will help to defeat the evil American empire! How did that Biden African press secretary get to where she is now anyway? Did she get lost?  

Calm down says the hard headed realist Tolstoy, their ties to the West are too strong. The place to look is the central Asian republics. They love us. They deliver our pizzas and do construction work and are having a great time. There isn’t a problem.

Some of these guys might fit in well in a Trump cabinet if he gets elected again. The one guy missing is our friend from Scarsdale who could explain with his eyeball  hurting charts that the waging of the existential war on Ukraine to destroy it before Russia is destroyed has been great for the Russian economy, and it is just going to get better and better going forward, with Zillions of pizzas delivered to everyone by those happy central Asians.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

The presenter called Karine Jean-Pierre Cheburashka, another member of Two Minutes Hate called her a little house spirit. They had in mind two specific characters from Soviet cartoons:


It is to understand what exactly was the insult.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1685531165686456325?s=20

[Red Velvet]

Interesting to note the countries they name in their map imo

In Europe:
- Russia
- UK

In Africa:
- It’s only Sudan ()

In Americas:
- Canada
- USA
- Brazil
- Cuba (lmao)

In Middle East:
- Iran
- Iraq

In Rest of Asia:
- India
- China
- South Korea
- Japan
- Taiwan (!!!!)

Others:
- Australia

Is there some reason they care more about Sudan in Africa beyond the Wagner Group involvement in the politics if that country? I didn’t know it was particularly something Russian public was collectively aware and present in public discussions though. I mean, being the only African country named in the map is quite significant!

Cuba I can maybe understand more for old historical reasons, but it’s still funny they cared to locate it today (while not doing same for Venezuela). They probably see Cuba as an old distant reliable friend in the middle of a more hostile world or something.

Taiwan mention is also interesting, shows they see as a strategic place! Also calls my attention the Iraq mention! Same thing the full ignoring of the EU in its entirety in Europe while they’re fighting an European war.

I guess they truly see Europe as a supporting player in all this. Because when the hosts were talking about enemies they referred to it as the US-centric world while fully ignoring Europe.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1685531165686456325?s=20

It’s really noticeable how the “neutral observer/ Ukraine can’t win crowd” like David Sacks ignore stuff like this when god knows if there was something like this about Ukraine he’d be all over it

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Interesting to note the countries they name in their map imo

In Europe:
- Russia
- UK

In Africa:
- It’s only Sudan ()

In Americas:
- Canada
- USA
- Brazil
- Cuba (lmao)

In Middle East:
- Iran
- Iraq

In Rest of Asia:
- India
- China
- South Korea
- Japan
- Taiwan (!!!!)

Others:
- Australia

Is there some reason they care more about Sudan in Africa beyond the Wagner Group involvement in the politics if that country? I didn’t know it was particularly something Russian public was collectively aware and present in public discussions though. I mean, being the only African country named in the map is quite significant!

Cuba I can maybe understand more for old historical reasons, but it’s still funny they cared to locate it today (while not doing same for Venezuela). They probably see Cuba as an old distant reliable friend in the middle of a more hostile world or something.

Taiwan mention is also interesting, shows they see as a strategic place! Also calls my attention the Iraq mention! Same thing the full ignoring of the EU in its entirety in Europe while they’re fighting an European war.

I guess they truly see Europe as a supporting player in all this. Because when the hosts were talking about enemies they referred to it as the US-centric world while fully ignoring Europe.

They said the phrase "European skunks", so it's unlikely they really see continental Europe as an ally. At least I wouldn't be friends with someone I call skunk or someone who calls me skunk.

Also, this phrase may indicate that their ghostwriters are not from Russia, but for example from somewhere in Asia, because Russians are also Europeans and therefore they are also "European skunks". In general, it has always been typical for Russians to consider the best of European countries as a guide and an example for their own development. But I know one people in Asia for whom such hatred to Europeans is entirely appropriate and fair.

[Red Velvet]

Interesting to note the countries they name in their map imo

In Europe:
- Russia
- UK

In Africa:
- It’s only Sudan ()

In Americas:
- Canada
- USA
- Brazil
- Cuba (lmao)

In Middle East:
- Iran
- Iraq

In Rest of Asia:
- India
- China
- South Korea
- Japan
- Taiwan (!!!!)

Others:
- Australia

Is there some reason they care more about Sudan in Africa beyond the Wagner Group involvement in the politics if that country? I didn’t know it was particularly something Russian public was collectively aware and present in public discussions though. I mean, being the only African country named in the map is quite significant!

Cuba I can maybe understand more for old historical reasons, but it’s still funny they cared to locate it today (while not doing same for Venezuela). They probably see Cuba as an old distant reliable friend in the middle of a more hostile world or something.

Taiwan mention is also interesting, shows they see as a strategic place! Also calls my attention the Iraq mention! Same thing the full ignoring of the EU in its entirety in Europe while they’re fighting an European war.

I guess they truly see Europe as a supporting player in all this. Because when the hosts were talking about enemies they referred to it as the US-centric world while fully ignoring Europe.

They said the phrase "European skunks", so it's unlikely they really see continental Europe as an ally. At least I wouldn't be friends with someone I call skunk or someone who calls me skunk.

Also, this phrase may indicate that their ghostwriters are not from Russia, but for example from somewhere in Asia, because Russians are also Europeans and therefore they are also "European skunks". In general, it has always been typical for Russians to consider the best of European countries as a guide and an example for their own development. But I know one people in Asia for whom such hatred to Europeans is entirely appropriate and fair.

I don’t agree. Less people in Russia see themselves as Europeans today though, because the word European is more strongly associated to countries in the EU these days.

And it’s not something from just Russia. I’ve seen Europeans even argue with me that UK isn’t European because they associate it to be closer towards USA and Anglophone culture than to European culture.

I said that Europe is a geographical continent though, so regardless of culture or EU membership, the UK was also European even if they are Anglos and culturally/politically driven towards USA more than they are to Europe.

But they were still somewhat offended when I continued to refere to British people as “Europeans” because they felt they didn’t belong in the same group and were weirdly bothered with the idea of being minimally associated to British people under the big umbrella of “Europeans”.

And I feel it’s reciprocated feeling. Look at the UK-Argentina thread I posted. There was a British person there that referred to the EU as the true “Europeans”, suggesting that more and more British people see themselves as that way, associating Europe to EU or continental Europe.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1685686657100414976?s=12
Let’s see if anyone else picks this up 😗

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1685689071589343232?s=20

[Torie]

Repost: 🇷🇺milblogger Romanov reports that the AFU is seriously contesting Urozhaine.
...
Let’s see if anyone else picks this up 😗

Here is an extensive article on the subject. Urozhaine per my google map search appears to be pretty far south, suggesting a Russian defense line or two has been breached.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/29/frontline-report-ukrainians-advance-near-urozhaine-on-eastern-front-russians-suffer-supply-disruptions/



On the other hand, this NYT article makes for grim reading. It starts off with the good news where the Russians panicked and cut and run or surrendered, allowing for the capture of Staromaiorske, but then the heart-breaking bad news in an accounting by a soldier of a battle elsewhere where the bulk of his comrades died: as they run out of artillery, the Russians pin point them with drones, and surrounded by mines, they die as if targets on a shooting range. Bad, very bad. This approach is not sustainable.

“We were shot like on a shooting range,” he said. “A drone was flying above us and correcting the artillery fire.” Their positions were in former Russian positions, hemmed in by minefields, he said, and the Russian forces were able to keep them pinned down and under constant drone surveillance.

Soldiers were running out of ammunition and water but could only sneak in and out of their positions in ones or twos, on foot, when the light was poor just before dawn and at dusk, he said.

The Ukrainian troops, Oleksiy added, were unable to suppress the Russian firepower. “At first we had artillery support, and then we ran out,” he said. “We need more weapons,” he added.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/30/world/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia.html

[rc18]

Repost: 🇷🇺milblogger Romanov reports that the AFU is seriously contesting Urozhaine.
...
Let’s see if anyone else picks this up 😗

Here is an extensive article on the subject. Urozhaine per my google map search appears to be pretty far south, suggesting a Russian defense line or two has been breached.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/29/frontline-report-ukrainians-advance-near-urozhaine-on-eastern-front-russians-suffer-supply-disruptions/

I'm afraid you've fallen for the Ukrainian curse. The Urozhaine mentioned in the article is one in Donetsk, which is next to Staromaiorske, not the one in Zaporizhzhia on your map.

I assume Urozhaine derives from the word for Harvest, so naturally Ukraine being an agricultural nation there's quite a few places with that name.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Lol the Russian attempt of a counterattack on Svatove is going backwards per Deepstate
https://t.me/DeepStateUA/17242

[Hindsight was 2020]

Saudi Arabia is hosting 30 nations for a peace treaty summit on Ukraine and Russia isn’t invited lol
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1685722740009861121

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/1685573843094544384

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/1685573843094544384

fixed typo in the tweet: "he's done that lots"

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1685688028704993280?s=20

[Storr]

This dude brings a medal "for the defense of Avdiivka" on to the set, shows it to the cameras, and complains that Russia still hasn't taken such a small city in 18 months of war. Among other whining, he says "we should napalm everything". This is some delicious cope.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1685743880837136384?s=20

[jaichind]

German satire Titanic magazine: "Ukraine failed counteroffensive: we want our money back!"

[jaichind]

https://time.com/6298695/ukraine-counteroffensive-plan-b-column/

"Ukraine's Counteroffensive Needs a Plan B"

Time Magazine's Ukraine Plan B is to halt the counteroffensive and go over to the defensive in order to inflict losses on Russian attacks.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Lol the Russian attempt of a counterattack on Svatove is going backwards per Deepstate
https://t.me/DeepStateUA/17242

Ukraine committed reserves to counter this which may have been better spent on the offensive, but for the fact that Ukrainian and Russian command seem loath to cede any territory.

It may not have been true in this case (i.e. there may have been very good reasons to reverse the Russian push), but some Ukrainian soldiers at this front claimed they weren’t allowed to cede ground for long to French journalists.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Is it a "big progress"?))))

There would be a progress if the local Russians managed to understand the Western culture of tolerance, as some of the Moscow youth did. It is strange that a communist upbringing has produced far-right xenophobes, while right-wing capitalist countries follow the values of the real left.

Press X to doubt, though you may be talking about social liberalism but that's definitely not 'the real left'.

Not to distract from other far more important issues in this thread, carry on.