Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Die-Sanktionen-sind-gescheitert-article24269752.html

German media: "The sanctions have failed"

From the article (google translated from German)

You have to differentiate here too. The middle class definitely feels the sanctions. They vacationed in Europe before the war and bought Western branded goods that are no longer available or only available to a limited extent. The poorer classes, on the other hand, feel positive effects, at least economically. Real wages, that is, even after deducting inflation, are rising significantly. Because war and sanctions have led to a major labor shortage, forcing companies to pay employees better. Economically weak regions also benefit financially from the fact that many men go into the army. Because the military pays very good wages compared to the normal income in these regions.

Fascinating info.
Also this:

The Russian economy cannot be compared to the Soviet one. Russia is a true market economy. The entrepreneurial spirit, especially of small and medium-sized companies, has made it possible to set up alternative supply chains for many sanctioned supply chains comparatively quickly.

Nevertheless, it's difficult for an entrepreneurial spirit to exist in a country where at any moment your business can be taken away by hand puppets of Chekists or Kadyrovites, or even by them personally. This is a market economy in the style of Lenin's NEP.

[Hollywood]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/london-blocked-olympic-bosses-hosting-084718734.html

"London blocked by Olympic bosses from hosting Paris 2024 qualifier over Russian stance"

London has been blocked from hosting the new Olympic Qualifier Series in the build-up to the Paris Games over the position on athletes from Russia and Belarus.

Under British Government rules, competitors from both nations must sign a declaration that they are not state funded and back neither the invasion of Ukraine nor President Vladimir Putin.

The article totally misrepresents the situation.  You can read the IOC Statements that have been published and cited on their Website. 
https://olympics.com/ioc/news/q-a-on-solidarity-with-ukraine-sanctions-against-russia-and-belarus-and-the-status-of-athletes-from-these-countries

In reality, the IOC has already taken a strong position against Russia by condemning the war in Ukraine, and forcing athletes with Russian and Belorussian passports to identify as 'neutrals'.  These athletes aren't allowed to represent Russia, nor can they express support for the invasion.  Russians that serve in the military are also unable to compete regardless of whether they fought in Ukraine.  

The UK has essentially blocked themselves.  They wouldn't budge on their demand that Athletes from Russia and Belarus not receive 'state funds' even though every countries' athletes, aside from the US, receive financial assistance from their governments.  Also, the UK wanted to force every athlete with a Russian passport to make a declaration that they don't support the war or Putin.  

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/20/bradley-ukraine-war-vehicles/

"Ukraine’s New Bradley Fighting Vehicles Face Damage And Quick Repairs"

 One early limitation for how quickly the Ukrainians can fix the Bradleys and get them back on the battlefield: not enough spare parts, military personnel said.
Any request for spare parts has to be made formally to a senior commander, who has a limited reserve and multiple units that need them. An American M109A6 Paladin self-propelled howitzer is currently not in use by the 47th Brigade because of a mechanical issue that the soldiers do not yet have the parts to fix.

My points about spare parts and logistics are already showing up

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/security-aviation/2023-06-22/ty-article/.premium/israel-plans-to-sell-its-merkava-tanks-to-cyprus/00000188-e278-d7f8-abbb-e6ff5f2c0000

"Israel Plans to Sell Its Merkava Tanks to Cyprus"

I am pretty sure the idea is for Cyprus to then re-sell them to Ukraine.  Clearly, a tank is better than no tank but this will just add to the Frankenstein of Ukraine's arms arsenal with additional diversity in training, logistics, spare parts, repair, and doctrine.

[Woody]

Welp, maybe freeing the Azov guys wasn't such a good idea after all.

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1681683779054714881

[Torie]

Woody, freeing whomever if that was what precipitated Putin, is a splendid idea if the US navy shows up in the Black Sea for convoy support. Be patient.

In other news:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/19/world/europe/mi6-moore-putin-wagner.html

Despite some assertions to the contrary in this thread, the head of UK intelligence thinks that the West has more staying power than Russia does in waging the Ukraine War. Fancy that. I must say, a surname of Cleverly is simply splendid for a spy chief.

Russia ultimately withdrew from Afghanistan because internal Russian pressure became insurmountable, Mr. Cleverly said, referring a decade-long conflict that ended in 1989. “And we are seeing some of the evidence that a similar thing is happening,” he added.

Mr. Cleverly said the rebellion underscored the falsity of Mr. Putin’s assertions that Russia would be more committed to a long war in Ukraine than the West would be. “It proved the lie that underpins Putin’s strategic rationale,” he said.

‘“What Prigozhin said out loud is what we all instinctively knew: This was an entirely unjustified and uncalled-for invasion,” he added. “This was driven by the ego and ambition of Vladimir Putin. There was never any risk or threat to the Russian homeland or the Russian people.”

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1682010156807143425?s=20

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1682014560788807680?s=20

[Red Velvet]

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Die-Sanktionen-sind-gescheitert-article24269752.html

German media: "The sanctions have failed"

Pretty much. The “prejudices” as the article mentions is more about losing luxury which doesn’t really affect people’s mood that much. Especially if the poorer people are improving their life standard because of the rise on the local demand created by the vacuum left by the Europeans.

The point of the sanctions was always much more about the “spectacle” and virtue-signaling to show you’re against Russia without having to do that much about it. If westerners really cared about Ukraine as much as their rhetoric attempts to signal they wouldn’t do sanctions or release low-damage weapons in slow motion to them, they would actually enter the war and put their heads and economy in risk for it.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Woody, freeing whomever if that was what precipitated Putin, is a splendid idea if the US navy shows up in the Black Sea for convoy support. Be patient.

In other news:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/19/world/europe/mi6-moore-putin-wagner.html

Despite some assertions to the contrary in this thread, the head of UK intelligence thinks that the West has more staying power than Russia does in waging the Ukraine War. Fancy that. I must say, a surname of Cleverly is simply splendid for a spy chief.

Russia ultimately withdrew from Afghanistan because internal Russian pressure became insurmountable, Mr. Cleverly said, referring a decade-long conflict that ended in 1989. “And we are seeing some of the evidence that a similar thing is happening,” he added.

Mr. Cleverly said the rebellion underscored the falsity of Mr. Putin’s assertions that Russia would be more committed to a long war in Ukraine than the West would be. “It proved the lie that underpins Putin’s strategic rationale,” he said.

‘“What Prigozhin said out loud is what we all instinctively knew: This was an entirely unjustified and uncalled-for invasion,” he added. “This was driven by the ego and ambition of Vladimir Putin. There was never any risk or threat to the Russian homeland or the Russian people.”

Cleverly isn't an intelligence officer, he's the Foreign Secretary.

[Torie]

Woody, freeing whomever if that was what precipitated Putin, is a splendid idea if the US navy shows up in the Black Sea for convoy support. Be patient.

In other news:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/19/world/europe/mi6-moore-putin-wagner.html

Despite some assertions to the contrary in this thread, the head of UK intelligence thinks that the West has more staying power than Russia does in waging the Ukraine War. Fancy that. I must say, a surname of Cleverly is simply splendid for a spy chief.

Russia ultimately withdrew from Afghanistan because internal Russian pressure became insurmountable, Mr. Cleverly said, referring a decade-long conflict that ended in 1989. “And we are seeing some of the evidence that a similar thing is happening,” he added.

Mr. Cleverly said the rebellion underscored the falsity of Mr. Putin’s assertions that Russia would be more committed to a long war in Ukraine than the West would be. “It proved the lie that underpins Putin’s strategic rationale,” he said.

‘“What Prigozhin said out loud is what we all instinctively knew: This was an entirely unjustified and uncalled-for invasion,” he added. “This was driven by the ego and ambition of Vladimir Putin. There was never any risk or threat to the Russian homeland or the Russian people.”

Cleverly isn't an intelligence officer, he's the Foreign Secretary.

Yes, Richard Moore, my bad.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1682040734785101824

other video: https://twitter.com/bigSAC10/status/1682028391191711748

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://vxtwitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1681989410663936000?s=20
Rest in piss bozo

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1681974281603887106?s=20

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1681976020679766017?s=20

[jaichind]

https://thehill.com/policy/4106234-51-percent-disapprove-of-biden-decision-to-send-cluster-bombs-to-ukraine-poll/

"51 percent disapprove of Biden decision to send cluster bombs to Ukraine: poll"

Approval/disapproval of sending cluster bombs to Ukraine is 39/51

[Torie]

I wonder what the poll results would be if the public were informed that Russia was the first to use them and has been using cluster bombs on Ukraine, and that those bearing the risk of unexploded ordinance are the Ukrainian civilians, not Russian ones.

[John Dule]

https://thehill.com/policy/4106234-51-percent-disapprove-of-biden-decision-to-send-cluster-bombs-to-ukraine-poll/

"51 percent disapprove of Biden decision to send cluster bombs to Ukraine: poll"

Approval/disapproval of sending cluster bombs to Ukraine is 39/51

Good thing we don't put foreign policy up for a popular referendum.

[pppolitics]

https://thehill.com/policy/4106234-51-percent-disapprove-of-biden-decision-to-send-cluster-bombs-to-ukraine-poll/

"51 percent disapprove of Biden decision to send cluster bombs to Ukraine: poll"

Approval/disapproval of sending cluster bombs to Ukraine is 39/51

“Americans were asked about President Biden's authorization to send cluster munitions to Ukraine despite concerns from human rights groups that they endanger civilians.”

The wording of the poll probably has so thing to do with the result.

[President Johnson]

Interesting:

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1682088511317352451

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1682129373489446914?s=20
Yummy orc fear 😋

[oldtimer]

I wonder what the poll results would be if the public were informed that Russia was the first to use them and has been using cluster bombs on Ukraine, and that those bearing the risk of unexploded ordinance are the Ukrainian civilians, not Russian ones.

I think it will still be a proxy of Biden's approval rating like any generic presidential policy.

[NOVA Green]

https://thehill.com/policy/4106234-51-percent-disapprove-of-biden-decision-to-send-cluster-bombs-to-ukraine-poll/

"51 percent disapprove of Biden decision to send cluster bombs to Ukraine: poll"

Approval/disapproval of sending cluster bombs to Ukraine is 39/51

“Americans were asked about President Biden's authorization to send cluster munitions to Ukraine despite concerns from human rights groups that they endanger civilians.”

The wording of the poll probably has so thing to do with the result.

Interesting that the once extremely hawkish War Party has 64% Republican disapproval.

I would understand the Human Rights concerns more if Democrats were heavily opposed, but only 36% of Democrats disapproved of the decision.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1682129373489446914?s=20
Yummy orc fear 😋

The General Staff has not yet handed over to our guys cassette bombs and rockets with cluster munitions for answers.

This part of the message looks like disinformation. This supports the bullsh of Russian propaganda that the Russian military has not yet used cluster munitions. Perhaps they are inserting misleading snippets into messages that are nice to hear.

[It’s so Joever]

I wonder what the poll results would be if the public were informed that Russia was the first to use them and has been using cluster bombs on Ukraine, and that those bearing the risk of unexploded ordinance are the Ukrainian civilians, not Russian ones.

I think it will still be a proxy of Biden's approval rating like any generic presidential policy.

They really should also remove Biden’s name from the question and see what that does.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1682338191850848258?s=20
Hahahahahahahahaha

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder what the poll results would be if the public were informed that Russia was the first to use them and has been using cluster bombs on Ukraine, and that those bearing the risk of unexploded ordinance are the Ukrainian civilians, not Russian ones.

I think it will still be a proxy of Biden's approval rating like any generic presidential policy.

They really should also remove Biden’s name from the question and see what that does.

I get the sense that both Ukraine and Russia have used cluster munitions and usage of them in some form is part of both their doctrines (of course, the way they use them differs for multiple reasons). In any case, removing Biden's name from the polling question should generate better results.

[Red Velvet]

I wonder what the poll results would be if the public were informed that Russia was the first to use them and has been using cluster bombs on Ukraine, and that those bearing the risk of unexploded ordinance are the Ukrainian civilians, not Russian ones.

I mean, there’s a reason you don’t want to lean your respondents to the answer you want them to give you, otherwise your poll becomes useless.

And I know you’re under a completely different context but your comment remind me of a scene of the VICE movie with this comment where the Bush/Cheney government aligned with think tanks would do these sample interviews to test the War approval amongst the US population.

Whenever something started to become unpopular, they would form these branding strategies in order for the unpopular decision to become more palatable to the public, which is essentially a strategy of manipulation and shaping/misleading the public opinion to what YOU want.

There’s a scene exactly like this regarding the Iraq War in the movie but I can’t find it by itself online.