Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Virginiá]

Look what my google search came up with. How time flies. Sad really.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/14/us-army-iron-dome-weapons-ukraine-511787

Not too surprising, IMO. That was pre-war and also appears to be an attempt by Congress that didn't pan out. Many members of Congress were also in favor of giving Ukraine certain weapons (ATACMS, most notably) long before the Biden admin even seriously considered it. I think the Biden admin just had other plans for their own Iron Dome systems.

So Israel put $$$ for selling Iron Dome to other countries ahead of helping Ukraine.

Got it.

Those talks began in early/mid-2022 before any countries had agreed to transfer or purchase modern air defense systems for Ukraine.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

If someone want to criticize some country for hindering assistance to Ukraine, there is no better candidate in the world for this than Orban's Hungary.

[CumbrianLefty]

Finland has been weapons to Ukraine before joining NATO.

Sweden has long been giving weapons to Ukraine despite not being in NATO yet.

All the excuses in the world don't change anything.

And again because they don't have the same issues with neighboring countries as Israel. You just keep ignoring that and pretending like it doesn't exist.

If you want to keep walking around that, OK. I don't really have anything else to add. You don't seem to either, anyway.

Are you telling me that Israel couldn't spare a few Iron Done systems despite the fact that the US is paying the bills?

Israel is not in an alliance with Ukraine, it has zero obligation to provide anything.

Iron Dome is Israeli IP, not American. The US has invested into production of systems once it was developed, but the agreements mean much of the American money invested into production goes back to US contractors, it isn't "paying the bills".

Most countries on the planet haven't supplied Ukraine with weapons, why are you picking on just one?

Israel isn't "most countries".

Its apologists constantly tell us it is a shining beacon of civilised Western values in a sea of barbarism, and there is also the small matter of *vast* amounts of US aid and support to consider.

[rc18]

Finland has been weapons to Ukraine before joining NATO.

Sweden has long been giving weapons to Ukraine despite not being in NATO yet.

All the excuses in the world don't change anything.

And again because they don't have the same issues with neighboring countries as Israel. You just keep ignoring that and pretending like it doesn't exist.

If you want to keep walking around that, OK. I don't really have anything else to add. You don't seem to either, anyway.

Are you telling me that Israel couldn't spare a few Iron Done systems despite the fact that the US is paying the bills?

Israel is not in an alliance with Ukraine, it has zero obligation to provide anything.

Iron Dome is Israeli IP, not American. The US has invested into production of systems once it was developed, but the agreements mean much of the American money invested into production goes back to US contractors, it isn't "paying the bills".

Most countries on the planet haven't supplied Ukraine with weapons, why are you picking on just one?

Israel isn't "most countries".

Its apologists constantly tell us it is a shining beacon of civilised Western values in a sea of barbarism, and there is also the small matter of *vast* amounts of US aid and support to consider.

If you hate Israel so much, why the hell do you want their weapons?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1674818102704369664?s=20

[pppolitics]

If someone want to criticize some country for hindering assistance to Ukraine, there is no better candidate in the world for this than Orban's Hungary.

Hungry doesn’t receive foreign aid from the US.

Israel does and more so than any other country.

[Storr]

The Russians starting to gradually leave ZNPP is either a very good sign (of a general Russian retreat like in Kherson last fall) or a really bad one:

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1674775001390804993?s=20

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1674777311391150086?s=20

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1674779867135766529?s=20

[jaichind]

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2025561/zelensky-won-t-attend-vilnius-summit-without-invitation-to-start-nato-accession-advisor

"Zelensky won’t attend Vilnius summit without invitation to start NATO accession – advisor"

I guess his message is "I launched the counteroffensive as you all wanted. So where is my NATO membership?"

[Torie]

If Russia really blows up the nuke plant spreading radiation everywhere, I suspect the war will end this year. The calculus of the West will fundamentally change as to the risk matrix. What was deemed too risky to do before, will now become too risky not to do.

Given the above, I believe it unlikely that Putin will be crossing that line.

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cia-chief-william-burns-called-to-reassure-kremlin-after-wagner-mutiny-a5016557

"CIA Chief William Burns Called to Reassure Kremlin After Wagner Mutiny"
"Russia’s spy boss was told U.S. had no role in uprising"

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1674811978408132611?s=20

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.6%        +3.2%       +1.8%      +4.2%      +3.3%          +1.5%
Dec         -3.3%        +3.2%       +1.9%      +4.3%      +3.0%          +1.4%
Jan          -3.0%        +3.3%       +2.1%      +4.2%      +3.0%          +1.3%
Feb          -2.1%        +3.4%       +2.1%      +4.1%      +3.0%         +1.1%
Mar          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%      +3.0%         +1.0%
April         -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%
May          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%
****************************   Data pretty much locked in ***********************

* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.7%      +4.9%        +1.3%
Dec          -2.7%       -0.1%         +0.3%       -1.0%      +4.8%        +1.3%
Jan           -2.9%        0.0%         +0.5%       -0.9%      +5.1%        +1.3%
Feb          -2.5%       +0.4%        +0.8%       -0.7%      +5.2%        +1.2%
Mar          -1.7%       +0.5%        +1.0%       -0.5%      +5.3%        +1.1%
April         -1.3%       +0.6%        +1.1%       -0.2%      +5.6%        +1.0%
May         -0.6%        +0.6%        +1.1%       +0.1%     +5.6%        +1.0%
June        +0.4%       +0.6%        +1.3%       +0.2%     +5.5%        +1.2%

2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.3%
Dec       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.1%          +2.4%
Jan        +13.8%       +8.4%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Feb       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Mar       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
April      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%       +2.0%          +2.5%
May      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%       +2.0%          +2.5%
****************************   Data pretty much locked in ***********************

2022 GDP and CPI locked in.  

Russia's number surged again and pushes Russia's expected 2023 GDP growth into positive territory.  USA Japan UK numbers also brighten.  PRC numbers got worse as more monthly data comes in showing their recovery is not going as fast as expected when the COVID-19 lockdown ended.
 
Once you take into account that 2021 UK GDP growth got marked down by 0.6% and 2021 Russia GDP growth got marked up by 0.9% one can then construct a total cumulative 2022-2023 GDP loss based on current consensus/result vs 2022 Feb consensus as a percentage of 2021 GDP

(change from May 2023 calculation)
Russia      -5.7% (+1.0%)
Eurozone  -2.5% (same)
USA         -2.9% (+0.2%)
UK           -2.7% (+0.1%)
PRC          -1.9% (-0.1%)
Japan       -2.3% (+0.2%)

The total economic impact on Russia in 2022-2023 continues to improve.  It's amazing the impact of the war and sanctions are now only expected to hit Russia in terms of GDP loss between 2022 and 2023 at only -5.7% relative to pre-war estimates.   Russia's economic resilience is impressive.

[Storr]

Personally, I don't see Putin agreeing to a ceasefire even if he lost all Russian occupied territory that was under Ukrainian control before February 24, 2022.

"In agreeing not to take Crimea by force, Kyiv would then demand that Russia accept whatever security guarantees Ukraine can secure from the West, said Ukrainian officials."

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1674925111596515328?s=20

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

If someone want to criticize some country for hindering assistance to Ukraine, there is no better candidate in the world for this than Orban's Hungary.

Hungry doesn’t receive foreign aid from the US.

Israel does and more so than any other country.

I think you are targeting Israel. Israel receives US aid because it is being bombarded with rockets just as constantly as Ukraine. Hungary has peace and tranquility.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Personally, I don't see Putin agreeing to a ceasefire even if he lost all Russian occupied territory that was under Ukrainian control before February 24, 2022.

"In agreeing not to take Crimea by force, Kyiv would then demand that Russia accept whatever security guarantees Ukraine can secure from the West, said Ukrainian officials."

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1674925111596515328?s=20

Putin has agreed to a ceasefire in the past, but it has always been a hoax, Russian troops have continued to fire without change. Another thing is that Putin can really stop the war, but only after he is sure that his mad skinheads will not be able to kill him for it.

[pppolitics]

If someone want to criticize some country for hindering assistance to Ukraine, there is no better candidate in the world for this than Orban's Hungary.

Hungry doesn’t receive foreign aid from the US.

Israel does and more so than any other country.

I think you are targeting Israel. Israel receives US aid because it is being bombarded with rockets just as constantly as Ukraine. Hungary has peace and tranquility.

Israel is bombarded by so many rockets that it needs every Iron Dome system to defend itself and can't give any to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Israel is exporting Iron Dome to other countries for $$$.

The excuse doesn't pass the smell test

[NOVA Green]

Putin and Modi had a chat today, although the content of the discussions are not exactly clear:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and President Vladimir V. Putin on Friday spoke on the phone about last weekend’s short-lived rebellion in Russia and the war in Ukraine, later offering differing accounts of the tone and tenor of the conversation.

The Kremlin said Mr. Modi had asked for the call with Mr. Putin and had expressed understanding and support for the Russian president as he coped with an armed uprising by a mercenary leader.

The Indian government’s brief description of the call, however, said only that Mr. Putin had informed Mr. Modi about the weekend’s developments, and that Mr. Modi had again called for “dialogue and diplomacy” to end war in Ukraine.

According to the Kremlin’s account of the call between the two leaders, Mr. Modi also spoke about his recent visit to Washington, and Mr. Putin described the current state of affairs in Ukraine, emphasizing Kyiv’s unwillingness to resolve the conflict. The conversation was described as informative and constructive, with both leaders reaffirming their mutual commitment to their strategic partnership.

India’s account of the phone call was markedly different in its tone. It said the leaders had agreed to continue further strengthen their strategic partnership.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/30/world/russia-ukraine-news

[NOVA Green]

Russia claims their air defense systems repelled a Ukrainian strike in Berdiansk, although there is some footage which suggests Ukrainian strikes might have hit at least some of their target(s), even if Russian air assets had been redeployed prior.

Storm Shadow missiles quite possibly involved.

On Friday — a day after Ms. Malyar said Kyiv’s forces in the south had advanced about 1,400 yards in the direction of Russian-occupied Berdiansk — explosions were reported in the city. The Ukrainian military said it had carried out a “successful” strike on Berdiansk, though a Kremlin-installed occupation official in southern Ukraine, Vladimir Rogov, claimed that air defenses had repelled a Ukrainian strike.

https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1674720748752056320?s=20

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1674689528886329345?s=20

https://twitter.com/Jackoboyse/status/1674768682399023105?s=20

[Storr]

Personally, I don't see Putin agreeing to a ceasefire even if he lost all Russian occupied territory that was under Ukrainian control before February 24, 2022.

"In agreeing not to take Crimea by force, Kyiv would then demand that Russia accept whatever security guarantees Ukraine can secure from the West, said Ukrainian officials."

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1674925111596515328?s=20

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1674937597821435910?s=20

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

So the restaurant was the target

https://twitter.com/insidermildef/status/1674094367781339136

I am skeptical that Putin's Russia has the technical capability to reliably hit a target the size of a restaurant with a long-range missile strike. 

Looks like I was wrong here.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/29/ukraine-says-suspect-directed-russia-missile-attack-on-restaurant

Officials initially said Tuesday’s attack on the restaurant involved a Russian S-300 missile, a surface-to-air weapon that Moscow’s forces have repurposed for loosely-targeted attacks on cities, but Ukraine’s National Police later said Iskander short-range ballistic missiles were used.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K720_Iskander#Details

Accuracy:

    5–7 m with terminal phase DSMAC optoelectronic homing system (Iskander-M)
    1–30 m 9K720

Russia likely only has a hundred or so Iskanders left by this point, although a trickle of new production can be presumed to continue. Using a limited-supply, precision-strike missile to hit a restaurant full of people is below even what I expected of people taking orders from Putin.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Using a limited-supply, precision-strike missile to hit a restaurant full of people is below even what I expected of people taking orders from Putin.

You're lucky you don't watch Russian comments in "ZOV" Telegram channels.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Ramzan Kadyrov is the puppet of the Chinese. Literally.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1674742616254971905

[Hindsight was 2020]

Lol a very good morning update coming from Russian sources
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1675041985554415616?s=12
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1675051837102206977?s=12

[CumbrianLefty]

If you hate Israel so much, why the hell do you want their weapons?

I actually don't hate Israel (as opposed to Likudism, perhaps) but I really can't see what they have to gain from being pro-Russia in even a utilitarian sense - especially with the pervasive AS there.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-05/russia-risks-bigger-longer-sanctions-hit-internal-report-warns

"Russia Risks Bigger Sanctions Hit, Internal Report Warns"

Bloomberg says it got an internal Russian report that indicated that the road to Russian recovery will be arduous.

The report says that while the "Target" scenario in the chart below is possible the "Inertial" scenario is more likely with a chance of a disastrous "Stress" scenario.  All 3 scenarios assume that the war will go on indefinitely and that the sanctions are here to stay and could grow.  Everything, it seems, comes how to how quickly Russia can shift its exports away from the collective West.


Certainly, most of the Western investment banking GDP projections for 2022 and 2023 tend to align with the "Inertial" scenario.  It certainly makes sense for the Russian government to plan on that taking place versus the rosy and ideal "Target" scenario which I think Russia will be lucky and unlikely to hit.

Looking at this report now with Russia's GDP contraction in 2022 at -2.1% (and that is AFTER a large upward adjustment of Russia's 2021 GDP which artificially increases the base where 2022 will be compared against) and 2023 now expected to be positive territory the Russia economic path is now going to be above the "Target" or best case scenario and way above any default or worst-case scenario laid out in the Sept 2022 Russia report that Bloomberg claimed they got a hold of.