Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

There were unreliable rumblings of this on tg but thought it was propaganda but it looks like it’s true
👀
https://twitter.com/armedmaidan/status/1674540142441250816?s=12
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/29/frontline-report-ukraine-captures-stranded-airborne-company-near-bakhmut-uses-increasibly-flexible-tactics/

Well... ISW has just posted something within the past 45 minutes with a map.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1674601207480958978?s=20

Here is some footage from the Ukrainian 80th Air Assault Brigade posted yesterday:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1674070461221617665?s=20

Naturally let's wait and see more details, but regardless it does appear that thus far the Bakhmut Front has been much more active compared to some of the more limited gains on other fronts.

[NOVA Green]

Not quite sure what is going on here...

Is Russia looking a possibly increasing their fixed wing air assets to use in dangerous usage to blunt potential Ukrainian breakthroughs?

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1673768159768379393?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

There were unreliable rumblings of this on tg but thought it was propaganda but it looks like it’s true
👀
https://twitter.com/armedmaidan/status/1674540142441250816?s=12
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/29/frontline-report-ukraine-captures-stranded-airborne-company-near-bakhmut-uses-increasibly-flexible-tactics/

Well... ISW has just posted something within the past 45 minutes with a map.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1674601207480958978?s=20

Here is some footage from the Ukrainian 80th Air Assault Brigade posted yesterday:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1674070461221617665?s=20

Naturally let's wait and see more details, but regardless it does appear that thus far the Bakhmut Front has been much more active compared to some of the more limited gains on other fronts.

I think one of the reasons Bakhmut got so hot is (beyond the obvious of Russia not having its best soldiers there anymore) is Ukraine is going for a slow methodical counterattack that bleeds Russia of its best equipment (like artillery and the helis) before committing the majority of the brigades to punch through. But this idea while smart and seems to be working is going to get alot of moaning about it being too slow and the David Sacks crowd using it to push Russian propaganda, so taking back Bakhmut will give a political/pr win to shut those crowds up

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not quite sure what is going on here...

Is Russia looking a possibly increasing their fixed wing air assets to use in dangerous usage to blunt potential Ukrainian breakthroughs?

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1673768159768379393?s=20

I thinks it a case of the quality of Russian infantry is so low they can't defend without artillery or aviation backing them in copious quantities

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Am curious to see if they end up using these T-55/54 tanks for infantry support as well. They are going to get smoked, if so. Last I read, Russia was using these museum pieces as improvised artillery due to heavy losses of actual artillery systems and high shell expenditure rates.

They also use that as car bombs.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Meanwhile, regardless of the Israeli sideshow, Tatianna Stanovaya, who is a bit of a Russian guru, not to mention having a significantly increased demand from news outlets for her takes, has a new Tweet out.

Unlike many others, she actually chooses to write on Twitter, more in the style of a basic 2 1/2 page double spaced 100/200 level college course, in this case consisting of (5) paragraphs, each of which contain (3)-(4) sentences.

Unfortunately the nature of such a style of Twitter, is that you will likely need to click on the link in order to read the full text.

Paragraph (3) takes us more into the "meat" of the matter:

I don’t expect a purge in the style of Stalin; that's not Putin's approach. His perspective splits individuals into heroes, traitors (who face severe consequences), or lost souls who may be pardoned if they repent in time. Arrests are possible within this framework, but figures like Surovikin are less likely to be targeted. The challenge here is that Putin isn't the same as before, and there are influential figures with their own agendas, like Sergei Shoigu, who may be interested in eliminating internal opposition. So final fate of Surovikin is unclear.

Paragraph (4) enhances the analysis further:

Prigozhin’s mutiny has underscored a potentially newer quality of the regime, which is not entirely new but is now more apparent. If Putin used to control the players, the power dynamics are now shifting. Given Putin's detachment and distorted view of reality, the players are starting to manipulate Putin. While I was always very reluctant to perceive Putin as being manipulated, the effects of his 23-year reign, his ageing, and the pressures of war could be leading to this shift. Prigozhin's struggle to reach the president and Shoigu's attempt to tackle the Wagner issue are the outcomes of Putin's inaction. This mutiny was so shocking that the regime appeared to many as near to collapse, which significantly undermines Putin’s ability to secure control in the eyes of the political class.

Paragraph (5) starts to move a little more towards the future, which is obviously more prone to pitfalls, than a rigorous examination of past historical events, let alone immediate events where the consequences and implications are far from clear:

Lastly, we're now witnessing the initial signs of an anti-elite trend in society. This shouldn't be confused with anti-Putin or anti-war sentiments. People are becoming increasingly frustrated with an inefficient and bloated elite, either scoffing at them or expressing silent indignation. Although this trend may not have immediate political implications, it may pose potentially a significant challenge later.

https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1674422450585731074?s=20

"Tatyana Stanovaya opens her eyes", chapter one.

Damn, Putin has always been a dependent figure. At least Patrushev stands behind him, and in general, Putin has a symbiosis with the deep state. Respect for Stanovaya, if only for the fact that she was able to understand this at least someday, while most analysts still continue to consider Putin the almighty Beelzebub.

As for anti-elite sentiments in society, its have not faded at all since Soviet times. They are post-Marxists, hatred of the Soviet placards' capitalists is their eternal idea fix.

[Virginiá]

Those are just excuses.

Everyone has security concerns.

Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have all sent weapons to Ukraine despite the danger of being directly next door to Russia.

Switzerland doesn't get foreign aid from the US.

Because Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are all NATO and know they can depend on a unified response if Russia attacks them. It's not like Latvia is constantly swatting down drones and missiles from nearby Belarusian insurgents and needs Russian cooperation to hit those targets with air strikes. I suppose in that kind of What-If scenario they would be hesitant to take a strong stance against Russia as well. Comparing those countries situations to Israel is not the same.

Personally I think Israel could do more, but you're just hand-waving away the much more complicated security situation they have in the region as if it were nothing.

[jaichind]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4075489-trump-says-putin-somewhat-weakened-by-mutiny/

"Trump says Putin ‘somewhat weakened’ by mutiny"

Former President Trump said Russian President Vladimir Putin is “somewhat weakened” after the Wagner private army briefly rebelled against him, though he argued that the leader is “still strong.”

Trump said that the U.S. should be focused on negotiating peace for the entire Russia-Ukraine conflict, and that a peace may include Ukraine losing territory

I mostly agree with Trump. Putin has been weakened internally but is still in an overall strong position politically.  The main damage of the coup is how pro-Russia powers view Russia and Putin.  Most of Putin's time last few days is mostly about reaching out to PRC India Turkey etc etc to assure them that he has everything under control.

[Virginiá]

Russia also appears to be creating moats for defense. Fits with their decision to bring back zindans (pits to throw prisoners in) for wayward mobiks. Getting more medieval by the day.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1674612723869425664

[pppolitics]

Those are just excuses.

Everyone has security concerns.

Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have all sent weapons to Ukraine despite the danger of being directly next door to Russia.

Switzerland doesn't get foreign aid from the US.

Because Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are all NATO and know they can depend on a unified response if Russia attacks them. It's not like Latvia is constantly swatting down drones and missiles from nearby Belarusian insurgents and needs Russian cooperation to hit those targets with air strikes. I suppose in that kind of What-If scenario they would be hesitant to take a strong stance against Russia as well. Comparing those countries situations to Israel is not the same.

Personally I think Israel could do more, but you're just hand-waving away the much more complicated security situation they have in the region as if it were nothing.

Finland has been weapons to Ukraine before joining NATO.

Sweden has long been giving weapons to Ukraine despite not being in NATO yet.

All the excuses in the world don't change anything.

[Virginiá]

Finland has been weapons to Ukraine before joining NATO.

Sweden has long been giving weapons to Ukraine despite not being in NATO yet.

All the excuses in the world don't change anything.

And again because they don't have the same issues with neighboring countries as Israel. You just keep ignoring that and pretending like it doesn't exist. I don't know, maybe you downgrade its significance in your mind, but at the very least you could consider that the Israeli government might have different opinions of how much they can anger Russia before it complicates their own ability to protect their country.

If you want to keep walking around that, OK. I don't really have anything else to add then. You don't seem to either, anyway.

[pppolitics]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4075489-trump-says-putin-somewhat-weakened-by-mutiny/

"Trump says Putin ‘somewhat weakened’ by mutiny"

Former President Trump said Russian President Vladimir Putin is “somewhat weakened” after the Wagner private army briefly rebelled against him, though he argued that the leader is “still strong.”

Trump said that the U.S. should be focused on negotiating peace for the entire Russia-Ukraine conflict, and that a peace may include Ukraine losing territory

I mostly agree with Trump. Putin has been weakened internally but is still in an overall strong position politically.  The main damage of the coup is how pro-Russia powers view Russia and Putin.  Most of Putin's time last few days is mostly about reaching out to PRC India Turkey etc etc to assure them that he has everything under control.

Are you serious?

Kyiv could seize Moscow with a few brigades.

The only reason Kyiv hasn't done so is that its Western supporters told it to not do so.

[pppolitics]

Finland has been weapons to Ukraine before joining NATO.

Sweden has long been giving weapons to Ukraine despite not being in NATO yet.

All the excuses in the world don't change anything.

And again because they don't have the same issues with neighboring countries as Israel. You just keep ignoring that and pretending like it doesn't exist.

If you want to keep walking around that, OK. I don't really have anything else to add. You don't seem to either, anyway.

Are you telling me that Israel couldn't spare a few Iron Done systems despite the fact that the US is paying the bills?

[jaichind]

Are you telling me that Israel couldn't spare a few Iron Done systems despite the fact that the US is paying the bills?

Israel's argument is that doing so risks Iron Done falling in the hands of Iran.

[Torie]

The US should buy them and give them to Ukraine, or build them itself.

[pppolitics]

Are you telling me that Israel couldn't spare a few Iron Done systems despite the fact that the US is paying the bills?

Israel's argument is that doing so risks Iron Done falling in the hands of Iran.

Yet, Israel is selling Iron Dome to other countries.

So what other excuses could you come up with?

[pppolitics]

The US should buy them and give them to Ukraine, or build them itself.

We don't have to buy them.

We already paid for them.

[Torie]

The US should buy them and give them to Ukraine, or build them itself.

We don't have to buy them.

We already paid for them.

Except they are being used for other purposes I believe.

My surmise is that if Biden told Israel to sell them or else, it would. Biden for whatever reason has not played that card yet.

[rc18]

Finland has been weapons to Ukraine before joining NATO.

Sweden has long been giving weapons to Ukraine despite not being in NATO yet.

All the excuses in the world don't change anything.

And again because they don't have the same issues with neighboring countries as Israel. You just keep ignoring that and pretending like it doesn't exist.

If you want to keep walking around that, OK. I don't really have anything else to add. You don't seem to either, anyway.

Are you telling me that Israel couldn't spare a few Iron Done systems despite the fact that the US is paying the bills?

Israel is not in an alliance with Ukraine, it has zero obligation to provide anything.

Iron Dome is Israeli IP, not American. The US has invested into production of systems once it was developed, but the agreements mean much of the American money invested into production goes back to US contractors, it isn't "paying the bills".

Most countries on the planet haven't supplied Ukraine with weapons, why are you picking on just one?

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/FareedZakaria/status/1674773237467602949

As I've said, not only Ukraine have become a Vietnam for Russia, but Russian are going to pay for Putin's vanity for the long term.

[Virginiá]

Are you telling me that Israel couldn't spare a few Iron Done systems despite the fact that the US is paying the bills?

Well, given that Israel has planned acquisitions of more than the current 10 batteries for itself, and has existing international customers already waiting on orders for Iron Dome, yes. Israel is one of a handful of countries other than Ukraine who arguably needs more air defense assets than they currently have, including spare components in reserve in case of damage.

I said on the last page already that even if Israel OK'd a transfer of Iron Dome, it would almost surely be the sale of a new system to Ukraine, which would probably take 1.5 - 2 years to actually be manufactured and deployed, given previous purchase timeframes. Do you actually expect a country under constant rocket attacks to pack up an active battery and send it over? Or do you think there are miles of warehouses with ~$50 million dollar air defense systems just collecting dust?

Again, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree here.

[Virginiá]

The US should buy them and give them to Ukraine, or build them itself.

We don't have to buy them.

We already paid for them.

Except they are being used for other purposes I believe.

My surmise is that if Biden told Israel to sell them or else, it would. Biden for whatever reason has not played that card yet.

The US bought 2 Iron Dome batteries to integrate into its broader air defense network, and almost scrapped those plans because they found ID's software didn't play well with the US's. Israel has since signaled they would cooperate on integration of those, and the US now appears to be holding them in reserve re: China (link).

The 2 batteries the US purchased was never really an option for Ukraine, and Israel's approval wasn't the dominating factor, either.

There appears to be some confusion and disagreement in the DoD about what to do with the Iron Dome batteries, but they do appear to want to do something with them.

[pppolitics]

Finland has been weapons to Ukraine before joining NATO.

Sweden has long been giving weapons to Ukraine despite not being in NATO yet.

All the excuses in the world don't change anything.

And again because they don't have the same issues with neighboring countries as Israel. You just keep ignoring that and pretending like it doesn't exist.

If you want to keep walking around that, OK. I don't really have anything else to add. You don't seem to either, anyway.

Are you telling me that Israel couldn't spare a few Iron Done systems despite the fact that the US is paying the bills?

Israel is not in an alliance with Ukraine, it has zero obligation to provide anything.

Iron Dome is Israeli IP, not American. The US has invested into production of systems once it was developed, but the agreements mean much of the American money invested into production goes back to US contractors, it isn't "paying the bills".

Most countries on the planet haven't supplied Ukraine with weapons, why are you picking on just one?

The US is the one telling Israel to give Iron Dome to Ukraine.

The US paid for the Iron Dome.

The US also gives plenty of other aid to Israel.

Diplomatically, it looks really bad.

The US helps Israel, but Israel won't lift a finger to help the US.

[Torie]

The US should buy them and give them to Ukraine, or build them itself.

We don't have to buy them.

We already paid for them.

Except they are being used for other purposes I believe.

My surmise is that if Biden told Israel to sell them or else, it would. Biden for whatever reason has not played that card yet.

The US bought 2 Iron Dome batteries to integrate into its broader air defense network, and almost scrapped those plans because they found ID's software didn't play well with the US's. Israel has since signaled they would cooperate on integration of those, and the US now appears to be holding them in reserve re: China (link).

The 2 batteries the US purchased was never really an option for Ukraine, and Israel's approval wasn't the dominating factor, either.

There appears to be some confusion and disagreement in the DoD about what to do with the Iron Dome batteries, but they do appear to want to do something with them.

Look what my google search came up with. How time flies. Sad really.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/14/us-army-iron-dome-weapons-ukraine-511787

[pppolitics]

Are you telling me that Israel couldn't spare a few Iron Done systems despite the fact that the US is paying the bills?

Well, given that Israel has planned acquisitions of more than the current 10 batteries for itself, and has existing international customers already waiting on orders for Iron Dome, yes. Israel is one of a handful of countries other than Ukraine who arguably needs more air defense assets than they currently have, including spare components in reserve in case of damage.

I said on the last page already that even if Israel OK'd a transfer of Iron Dome, it would almost surely be the sale of a new system to Ukraine, which would probably take 1.5 - 2 years to actually be manufactured and deployed, given previous purchase timeframes. Do you actually expect a country under constant rocket attacks to pack up an active battery and send it over? Or do you think there are miles of warehouses with ~$50 million dollar air defense systems just collecting dust?

Again, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree here.

So Israel put $$$ for selling Iron Dome to other countries ahead of helping Ukraine.

Got it.