Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1668693474663604257?s=20

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1668693478321037329?s=20

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1668693478321037329?s=20

If that does happen, then the Russian generals should proactively throw themselves out of the nearest window.

I don't advocate self-harm, just to be sure.

[Storr]

I assume Rivnopil might be next. Russian troops there are now facing the enemy from three sides.

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1668721408120180739?s=20

[GoTfan]

It is worth noting that some commentators have pointed out that this was never going to be a Desert Storm-style Shock and Awe campaign. Proclaiming this thing to be a runaway success or total failure is to ignore the reality of the situation; we are not going to know the outcome of this attack until weeks, maybe months from now.

Let's not forget either that fog of war as affected this war quite a lot. I know I keep using Lazerpig as a source, but to paraphrase him, I have no idea what the f**k is going on, and to an extent, neither does anyone else here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

While I’ve given into the temptation to respond to him from time to time, as always it is simply better to put Woodbury on ignore.

I put him on ignore along with jaichind because of how both spam up this thread.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Unless there is some surprise attack coming soon, this offensive was quite a failure. 6 days have passed, and they conquered measly 5 (confirmed) villages in total, which are still in process of being counterattacked.

Sot of the plays into the narrative that in the world of advanced satellite and drone technology there is a nature advantage of being on the defense since the offensive loses the edge of the element of surprise.

You might find this interesting.
https://acoup.blog/2021/09/17/collections-no-mans-land-part-i-the-trench-stalemate/

[Hindsight was 2020]

Seems that it's a bit early to say either way, no?

Case in point
https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1668642065343733760?s=12

[pppolitics]

Looks like Zaporozhye area will see rain in the next few days.  The mud will slow down any mechanized advances or movements by either side.

https://twitter.com/Eureka_News_ENG/status/1667832637568761856

LOL

Russian pundits are blaming the rain for Ukrainian advances

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-pundits-are-blaming-the-rain-for-ukrainian-advances-2023-6

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

This is an interesting, and sobering,  set of tweets about modern trench warfare. It is going to be a very hard and time consuming slog, particularly given, as we all knew, the lack of air superiority. When was the last time the US attacked anything without air superiority?

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1668482100050141184

The Ukrainian army has UAVs and drones, which are an alternative to air superiority and reconnaissance aircraft. This war represents a new era, a new understanding of aviation.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Terror bombing doesn't work in interstate wars (non-nuclear, anyway). In civil wars it can work if you're ruthless and evil enough (hello Syria). It didn't work in WWII, it didn't work in Korea, it didn't work in Vietnam, it didn't work in Iraq (don't tell me "Shock and Awe" wasn't trying to scare civilians), and it didn't work in any of the wars in Afghanistan. 

At this point, I feel that Russian missile strikes against civilians might simply be a reaction to the lack of success on the battlefield, instead trying to achieve anything. It's not like any of the previous missile strikes targeting civilians have dented Ukrainian morale at all.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1668563526548353024?s=20

In fact, the one who shoots does not know where the projectiles loaded by him will fly. They fire blindly at the coordinates provided to them. For example, the rockets that killed the children of Donbass at the railway station in Kramatorsk were signed by the Russians "За детей Донбасса", i.e. "(revenge) for the children of Donbass". And the people who provide the coordinates absolutely do not care about their accuracy or civilians who may be there, because they are in a hurry to report to their superiors about the next successful operation as soon as possible. They know that the extremists ruling the country will not punish them for the accidental deaths of civilians, and the society, which was brought up by extremists for more than a hundred years, will only be happy about mass deaths.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine launched a HIMARS strike near Kreminna that Russian sources are saying killed 200 Russian soldiers
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1668922195777581057?s=12

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

In addition to all kinds of support bought from Iran/NK and extorted from Belarus (and the mysterious ship from South Africa), it's worth looking at other sources of military support to Russia which may become relevant in a longer conflict.

Nikkei Asia ran an analysis on military imports/exports and concluded it was probable that Russian military companies had bought back parts from India's and Myanmar's militaries (night vision components for SAMs and tank sights/cameras respectively).

The sum total $ of the examples they touch upon aren't big (only $150k for the night vision components) but this may not be the full picture, now or in the future. It is possible, but unlikely, that this represents defective equipment being returned - but this is more likely to be an excuse rather than the real reason.

Unarmed Chinese MRAPs have been delivered to the Tiktok Chechens:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1666441410306768899

It's quite possible these weren't bought directly from China - perhaps in violation of a Chinese export license - and they don't mean much on their own, but China could be testing the waters w.r.t. sending military equipment to Russia.

These sources aren't major factors yet (not nearly as important as the Belarusian/Iran/possible NK support), but as Russian stocks run lower, they may be willing to do more to get help from abroad (and their efforts might pay off). Something to consider in analyses which usually assume Russia will have only its (and Iranian) industrial production to rely on.

[Woody]

Riga, Latvia. Anti-NATO partisans.

https://twitter.com/thebestdjgang/status/1668905201430851585?cxt=HHwWgsCz8Yeckqk...

[jaichind]

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/kampfpanzer-angeblich-erbeutet-kaempfen-die-russen-jetzt-mit-unserem-leopard-84314622.bild.html

Bild: Are the Russians fighting with our tank now?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/kampfpanzer-angeblich-erbeutet-kaempfen-die-russen-jetzt-mit-unserem-leopard-84314622.bild.html

Bild: Are the Russians fighting with our tank now?

Most likely not (yet). The video looks to have been taken before the first and second Bradley attacks. The Russian troops don't stick around to show the insides of the vehicle or tow it away, which is generally done with captured vehicles. If it had been evacuated from the battlefield by the Russian side, I would expect it to spend at least a bit of time somewhere like the Kronstadt Patriot Park display (featuring other captured equipment).

As the war goes on, they may be able to extract one of these tanks. It is likely they will eventually capture Leopard 2s as the war goes on, but perhaps not these ones.

[jaichind]

Most likely not (yet). The video looks to have been taken before the first and second Bradley attacks. The Russian troops don't stick around to show the insides of the vehicle or tow it away, which is generally done with captured vehicles. If it had been evacuated from the battlefield by the Russian side, I would expect it to spend at least a bit of time somewhere like the Kronstadt Patriot Park display (featuring other captured equipment).

As the war goes on, they may be able to extract one of these tanks. It is likely they will eventually capture Leopard 2s as the war goes on, but perhaps not these ones.

It is a stupid idea for Russia to do this.  Just like the benefits are limited for Ukraine to use Leopards since it will have implications for logistics, training, repairs, and tank doctrine.  In WWII even after Germany captured a bunch of T-34s and did form some T-34 units they were all used against partisans and not the Red Army for obvious reasons that such units will get crushed due to limited training and differences with German tank doctrines.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Most likely not (yet). The video looks to have been taken before the first and second Bradley attacks. The Russian troops don't stick around to show the insides of the vehicle or tow it away, which is generally done with captured vehicles. If it had been evacuated from the battlefield by the Russian side, I would expect it to spend at least a bit of time somewhere like the Kronstadt Patriot Park display (featuring other captured equipment).

As the war goes on, they may be able to extract one of these tanks. It is likely they will eventually capture Leopard 2s as the war goes on, but perhaps not these ones.

It is a stupid idea for Russia to do this.  Just like the benefits are limited for Ukraine to use Leopards since it will have implications for logistics, training, repairs, and tank doctrine.  In WWII even after Germany captured a bunch of T-34s and did form some T-34 units they were all used against partisans and not the Red Army for obvious reasons that such units will get crushed due to limited training and differences with German tank doctrines.

If they capture enough of them, they could be used on the frontline (Ukraine seems to benefit from them, despite the logistical issues; there are countries which maintain even smaller fleets). The big problem for Russia here would be the lack of ammunition.

If they're not put to work on the frontline, they could still be useful for testing and analysis, and there's some propaganda value in having a few. If nothing else, every tank captured by Russia is one Ukraine cannot use.

[jaichind]

Most likely not (yet). The video looks to have been taken before the first and second Bradley attacks. The Russian troops don't stick around to show the insides of the vehicle or tow it away, which is generally done with captured vehicles. If it had been evacuated from the battlefield by the Russian side, I would expect it to spend at least a bit of time somewhere like the Kronstadt Patriot Park display (featuring other captured equipment).

As the war goes on, they may be able to extract one of these tanks. It is likely they will eventually capture Leopard 2s as the war goes on, but perhaps not these ones.

It is a stupid idea for Russia to do this.  Just like the benefits are limited for Ukraine to use Leopards since it will have implications for logistics, training, repairs, and tank doctrine.  In WWII even after Germany captured a bunch of T-34s and did form some T-34 units they were all used against partisans and not the Red Army for obvious reasons that such units will get crushed due to limited training and differences with German tank doctrines.

If they capture enough of them, they could be used on the frontline (Ukraine seems to benefit from them, despite the logistical issues; there are countries which maintain even smaller fleets).

If they're not put to work on the frontline, they could still be useful for testing and analysis, and there's some propaganda value in having a few. If nothing else, every tank captured by Russia is one Ukraine cannot use.

Totally agreed with testing and analysis as well as propaganda value.  When I say it is stupid I mean for Russia to use captured tanks in battle against front line Ukraine units.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1668954630351364097?s=12

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

In addition to all kinds of support bought from Iran/NK and extorted from Belarus (and the mysterious ship from South Africa), it's worth looking at other sources of military support to Russia which may become relevant in a longer conflict.

Nikkei Asia ran an analysis on military imports/exports and concluded it was probable that Russian military companies had bought back parts from India's and Myanmar's militaries (night vision components for SAMs and tank sights/cameras respectively).

The sum total $ of the examples they touch upon aren't big (only $150k for the night vision components) but this may not be the full picture, now or in the future. It is possible, but unlikely, that this represents defective equipment being returned - but this is more likely to be an excuse rather than the real reason.

Unarmed Chinese MRAPs have been delivered to the Tiktok Chechens:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1666441410306768899
It's quite possible these weren't bought directly from China - perhaps in violation of a Chinese export license - and they don't mean much on their own, but China could be testing the waters w.r.t. sending military equipment to Russia.

These sources aren't major factors yet (not nearly as important as the Belarusian/Iran/possible NK support), but as Russian stocks run lower, they may be willing to do more to get help from abroad (and their efforts might pay off). Something to consider in analyses which usually assume Russia will have only its (and Iranian) industrial production to rely on.

It's a highly interesting topic to investigate, given that the Chinese Tiger armored vehicles are very similar to the Russian Tiger armored vehicles and are similarly equipped with an American Cummins diesel engine.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Reports coming out that Kadyrov's right-hand man has been eliminated.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1668963729013190658

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/insidermildef/status/1668829616440524800

[Storr]

Reports coming out that Kadyrov's right-hand man has been eliminated.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1668911534184038403?s=20

[Woody]

Speaker of the Russian Duma, Volodin, says that he spoke with Delimkhanov on the phone, and that he's alive and well.

Guess we'll soon get a confirmation video from him if he's well and all.