Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Damocles]

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/war_mapper/status/1667716075801149440?s=12
Almost all the tracking maps have Ukraine making the same progress today 😁.

[jaichind]

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/erste-deutsche-kampfpanzer-in-der-ukraine-zerstoert-wie-lange-reichen-unsere-leo-84272372.bild.html



Bild: "How long do our Leos last?"

I think it is always wrong to think in terms of "if we had weapon X then that can turn the tide of war?"  Yes, a new tank is better than an old tank but an old tank is better than no tank.  I think the level of training, organization, logistics, and air support is just as if not more important than the exact tank you have.  In many ways, a new tank makes things worse since that means you have to invest more to get training, organization, and logistics setup up around the new tank.  It is better in my view to figure out how to optimize around the equipment you actually have and get more of the existing equipment.

Another problem I see is to use these new tanks requires NATO training.  The problem I have with NATO training for the Ukrainian armed forces is the entire NATO doctrine is based on air superiority which Ukraine's armed forces do not have.  I will argue that an experienced Ukrainian officer has more to teach NATO officers how to fight the current conflict.  

[jaichind]

Looks like Zaporozhye area will see rain in the next few days.  The mud will slow down any mechanized advances or movements by either side.

https://twitter.com/Eureka_News_ENG/status/1667832637568761856

[Woody]

Looks like Zaporozhye area will see rain in the next few days.  The mud will slow down any mechanized advances or movements by either side.

https://twitter.com/Eureka_News_ENG/status/1667832637568761856

Russia can always count on General Weather.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1667868077436928001?s=12

[pppolitics]

Does anyone have any way to easy look up where these cities (in Ukraine) are?

Looking them up on Google Maps and isn't the most intuitive way to figure out where the battles and frontlines are.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1667893691271266304?s=12
Partisans getting work in 😤💪

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1667910825527369729?s=12
Ukraine’s been making better progress this first week of the counterattack than Russia did in 7 months around Bakhmut lol

[Person Man]

Looks like Zaporozhye area will see rain in the next few days.  The mud will slow down any mechanized advances or movements by either side.

https://twitter.com/Eureka_News_ENG/status/1667832637568761856

Gives me Virginia 2017 vibes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like Zaporozhye area will see rain in the next few days.  The mud will slow down any mechanized advances or movements by either side.

https://twitter.com/Eureka_News_ENG/status/1667832637568761856

Gives me Virginia 2017 vibes.

I bless the raains down in Ukraaaaainnnaaa

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1667914415629279233?s=20

[rc18]

Does anyone have any way to easy look up where these cities (in Ukraine) are?

Looking them up on Google Maps and isn't the most intuitive way to figure out where the battles and frontlines are.

Use Deep State, as it has a regularly updated map of the front.

https://deepstatemap.live/en

Bear in mind though this is Ukraine, so there's probably ~30 towns with the same name. Even worse, various sources will use the Russian name, which can be spelt similarly or be a completely different name to the Ukrainian one.

Good luck.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1667893691271266304?s=12
Partisans getting work in 😤💪

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1667895532075794435?s=20

[Storr]

The area of reported Ukrainian advances is near/along the Morki Yaly River:

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1667947353527951360?s=20

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1667919803535769601?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1667951379309031427?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1667977837788184576?s=20

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1667977842615898113?s=20

[Woody]

Good and bad. Ukraine's forces are still mobile to some degree. But we have yet to see if they can breach the main Russian lines & first defensive positions.. as they so far are in the grey zone villages

I had a feeling they would be getting some progress in Southern Donetsk. I thought the main push would be here. But the attack through Tokmak is just not going to happen. At least not without total air power for the Ukrainian side.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1667990744416632832?s=12
The orcs on tg are getting nervous and it’s delicious lol

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1668032511950110721?s=12
😁

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1668133461746413569?s=20

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1668134575896141825?s=20

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Looks like Zaporozhye area will see rain in the next few days.  The mud will slow down any mechanized advances or movements by either side.

https://twitter.com/Eureka_News_ENG/status/1667832637568761856

Russia can always count on General Weather.

You managed to make the General Frost idiotic stereotype sound even more idiotic, even though it seemed impossible.

[jaichind]

https://www.stern.de/digital/technik/minen--buggys--hubschrauber--warum-die-russische-abwehr-bislang-so-erfolgreich-ist--33548044.html



Stern: "Mines, buggies, helicopters - that's why the Russian army's defenses have been so successful so far"

[Woody]

Recap: In Zaporizhzhia Russians abandoned Lobkove, Ukrainians entered it, but left to it's previous positions after it's DRGs stayed there a few hours. Lobkove is currently a contested settlement. Elsewhere there has been no changes, except a border village near Donetsk Oblast (Novadarivka).

In Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainians captured 4 villages to the south of Velyka Novosilka. Russians are currently counterattacking, so we'll see by the end of the day if the Ukrainians can hold.

As a result, since the offensive has started Ukrainians have taken 4-5 settlements.

It seems the Ukrainians best shot at doing considerable damage is through the Volnovakha-Bilmak line in Southern Donetsk. The Zaporizhzhia line is heavily fortified with more defensive lines, and that seemingly, is why it's doing considerably better/won't budge.

[Woody]

All-in-all, it's early. But Russians are doing everything that they're supposed to do so far. No weakpoints have been exposed and their defensive lines haven't been breached.