Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Russia steals, the EU gives.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1652870461309501445?s=20

Among other examples, Prague has already given 20 trams to Kharkiv:

https://twitter.com/ZdenekHrib/status/1629416370919075846?s=20

Zurich is donating 35 trams to Vinnytsia:

https://twitter.com/MetroReportInt/status/1640262536019820547?s=20

And Warsaw is donating 60 metro/subway cars to Kyiv:

https://twitter.com/RailwaySupply/status/1651885583822618624?s=20

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

15 out of 18 Russian missiles shot down. Piglet's slaves used to launch 60-70 rockets every week until recently. It seems to me, or is there little left of their military power?

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Jake_Hanrahan/status/1652696668775620608

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Separately, I note the bastardity of the rocket attack on May 1. In the USSR and same in the post-Soviet countries this is a big bright holiday, Labor Day. People congratulate each other, rejoice. Piglet, whenever possible, always tries to spoil the holidays for Ukrainians with rocket attacks.

[AZdude]

If the war ended on the current lines or thereabouts, but the truncated Ukraine were given immediate NATO membership and fast-tracked for EU membership, could that really be seen as a victory for Russia?

The Orcs clearly have a demented obsession with Ukraine that they don't have with any of the other former republics (the Belarus puppet state notwithstanding), and as other posters have mentioned, they've talked from the beginning about regime change in Kyiv. A prosperous, free Ukraine in NATO has to be something out of their worst nightmares, even if they gain some territory out of it.

Obviously, like most of the non-psychos posting here, I'm hoping with all my heart for a resounding victory in the coming counteroffensive, and an eventual Ukrainian advance to the 2013 borders. But I'm also afraid of possible growing resentment in the West towards money being spent there, even if it's mostly due to disinformation campaigns.

[CumbrianLefty]

Russia must have used a fair bit of their cruise missile stocks in the last week or two?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

"Good" news: the big explosion last night may have only been caused (at least in part?) by the explosion of old, denuclearised ICBMs:

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1653008025123209219
Apparently, these were stored near a rocket factory and chemical plant along with their fuel, and were never fully disposed of due to cost issues. Like many of the larger Soviet ICBMs, they were rail-launched - hence their storage next to the train station.

The mayor insisted there was no imminent chemical danger in the aftermath of these attacks, but a lot of what is used in these kinds of ICBMs can be very toxic (not sure if age would make it better or worse).

Losing these is probably a lot better than losing S-300s or Patriots, ceteris paribus, but it's still not great.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/silovik5/status/1652981140020506624

https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/4009707?ln=en

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1652955890058776583
!!

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1653090547853148179
https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1653093775944699905

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1653090547853148179

With that information, it is now clear why Ukraine decided to hold on there as long as they have.

[2952-0-0]

Separately, I note the bastardity of the rocket attack on May 1. In the USSR and same in the post-Soviet countries this is a big bright holiday, Labor Day. People congratulate each other, rejoice. Piglet, whenever possible, always tries to spoil the holidays for Ukrainians with rocket attacks.

I wonder what he's planning for the even more important day of May 9. If the Ukrainian air defences are as successful as they were last night, these would be the most expensive fireworks.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1653090547853148179
https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1653093775944699905

Surely, this reeks of being a typo/misspeaking.

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1653090547853148179
https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1653093775944699905

Surely, this reeks of being a typo/misspeaking.

As it happens, the AFU has obtained the Ark of the Covenant, and is pouring out the wrath of God on the Wagner Group.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1653093775944699905

Bakhmut Bob in shambles.

[Storr]

Bryansk Oblast borders both Ukraine and Belarus:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1652961662465343488?s=20

[Storr]

Interestingly Kazakhstan also voted in favor of the resolution. The Central Asian countries had all abstained or were/voted absent in previous UN votes related to the war in Ukraine (iirc).

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1653036142520856584?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interestingly Kazakhstan also voted in favor of the resolution. The Central Asian countries had all abstained or were/voted absent in previous UN votes related to the war in Ukraine (iirc).

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1653036142520856584?s=20

Syria voting against stands out.

[Storr]

Bryansk Oblast borders both Ukraine and Belarus:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1652961662465343488?s=20

For my fellow train nerds. Maybe there's some irony to the fact all 2TE10 locomotives were built in the Ukrainian SSR or independent Ukraine. All the examples the model involved in the wreck, the 2TE10U, were manufactured in Luhansk.

https://twitter.com/Hajun_BY/status/1653033095681982465?s=20

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1653090547853148179
https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1653093775944699905

Surely, this reeks of being a typo/misspeaking.

Not necessarily. With months of fighting and the presumably high casualty rate, getting to 100k doesn't seem all too outlandish. Remember, casualties ≠ deaths.

[Cassius]

Interestingly Kazakhstan also voted in favor of the resolution. The Central Asian countries had all abstained or were/voted absent in previous UN votes related to the war in Ukraine (iirc).

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1653036142520856584?s=20

Syria voting against stands out.

Really? Russia (and the Soviet Union as was) and Syria have been close for decades, not least of all during the Syrian Civil War.

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1653090547853148179
https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1653093775944699905

Surely, this reeks of being a typo/misspeaking.

Not necessarily. With months of fighting and the presumably high casualty rate, getting to 100k doesn't seem all too outlandish. Remember, casualties ≠ deaths.

Assuming Cathcon was referring to Prigozhin, my understanding is that Prigozhin was talking about the last few days, not since December.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interestingly Kazakhstan also voted in favor of the resolution. The Central Asian countries had all abstained or were/voted absent in previous UN votes related to the war in Ukraine (iirc).

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1653036142520856584?s=20

Syria voting against stands out.

Really? Russia (and the Soviet Union as was) and Syria have been close for decades, not least of all during the Syrian Civil War.

I'm aware of the history between Syria and Russia. That's in part exactly why Syria stands out compared to other countries on this vote.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/dpatrikarakos/status/1652588853486559233

https://twitter.com/BadBalticTakes/status/1652616613080846336?s=20

I would know; I am a professor

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1653144178019147779

https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1652401988292734977?t=BiwLLvaJe5e92jSNdL...

Seems a bit more realistic .

Prigozhins claim could also be used. Even if its a dubious Russian source in this scenario undercounting casualties isn't the point as he is trying to ask for more supply.

100 men per 125 meters in a city about 8 km  from east to west gives around 6.5k KIA. A few more thousand on top makes some sense.

94 per day is also pretty accurate since December.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1653090547853148179

With that information, it is now clear why Ukraine decided to hold on there as long as they have.

What did they expect ?
They are attacking a well fortified area with just infantry head on.

They don't try to do incirclements or manouver warfare NATO style, just WW1 crap.