Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Egypt apparently was secretly planning on sending missiles to Russia according the leaked US GVT docs...

Are we back in the days of the Cold War where countries such as Egypt are flip-flopping back and forth for leverage with the "Super Powers"?

President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi of Egypt, one of America’s closest allies in the Middle East and a major recipient of U.S. aid, recently ordered subordinates to produce up to 40,000 rockets to be covertly shipped to Russia, according to a leaked U.S. intelligence document.

A portion of a top secret document, dated Feb. 17, summarizes purported conversations between Sisi and senior Egyptian military officials and also references plans to supply Russia with artillery rounds and gunpowder. In the document, Sisi instructs the officials to keep the production and shipment of the rockets secret “to avoid problems with the West.”

The Washington Post obtained the document from a trove of images of classified files posted in February and March on Discord, a chat app popular with gamers. The document has not been previously reported.

In response to questions regarding the document and the veracity of the conversations it describes, Ambassador Ahmed Abu Zeid, spokesman for Egypt’s Foreign Ministry said that “Egypt’s position from the beginning is based on noninvolvement in this crisis and committing to maintain equal distance with both sides, while affirming Egypt’s support to the U.N. charter and international law in the U.N. General Assembly resolutions.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/10/egypt-weapons-russia/

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile South Korea is a bit miffed from the US Intel report which discussed how they might be able to circumvent their law which bans shipping arms to countries in hostilities...

A South Korean official said the government was investigating the circumstances around a leak of highly classified U.S. documents that appeared to show intelligence based on intercepted communications of U.S. allies, including discussions among Seoul officials about concerns over selling ammunition to the U.S. that could end up in Ukraine.

South Korea’s first priority was to establish the facts, an official from the country’s presidential office said on Monday, adding that the reports of the intelligence leak hadn’t been confirmed. Once that is done, South Korea “plans to request, if necessary, the U.S. to take reasonable measures,” the official said.

The official said the process would be “based on the relationship of trust established between the two countries.” Other U.S. allies have been affected by the leak, including Israel, France and the U.K., and South Korea would “look into how other countries are responding” to the matter, the official said.

Much of the documents concern the war in Ukraine, and the South Korean official said it was impossible to rule out the involvement of “certain forces,” without specifying what it was referring to. The official said some in the U.S. have raised the possibility that parts of the leaked information was “changed or manipulated.”

The documents, viewed by the Journal, include purported details of a conversation that took place on March 1 between top aides to South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, in which they discuss a sale of ammunition to the U.S. and concerns about it violating the country’s policy against providing lethal aid if the U.S. wasn’t the end user.

The two former South Korean officials cited in the documents—Yi Mun-hui, then-secretary for foreign affairs at the National Security Council, and Kim Sung-han, then-national security adviser—discussed concerns in the National Security Council that President Biden would call Mr. Yoon directly before Seoul had a “clear position” on supplying the ammunition, the documents said.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korea-to-probe-circumstances-around-reported-leak-of-classified-u-s-documents-281aa7c8

[Woody]

Wagner & Russian Army has reached the railway line, fighting currently going on near the railway station.

The AFU's presence in the city is now only measly limited to it's western district.

Hey Woody, do you think Putin will complete his conquest of Bakhmut before losing his land bridge to Crimea? Any predictions?

He won't. That opportunity is way past over now.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1645108874117017603?cxt=HHwWhsCzqcHzzNQtAAAA

What does the fact that the Russians feel the need to build several extensive fortification lines across Northern Crimea mean in your estimation? Because to me, I can't imagine why they would waste so much time and effort building fortification lines to defend Crimea if they thought they were going to stop the Ukrainians north of Melitopol.

It's expected? Better to be safe than sorry. You see fortifications on the coast of Crimea too, yet nobody sane thinks they're going to do a D-Day through the Black Sea.

[Woody]

Major news: Russia has been rapidly using it's glide bombs these last weeks/months. Russia did not significantly prioritize these before the war. This along with the depleted air-defenses (S-300s mainly) has increased Russia's power in the air. That's why Ukraine is lobbying for F-16s and foreign pilots to fly them.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1645504511707086849?cxt=HHwWgoDUidPogNYtAAAA
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1645299664911233026

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1645090116187361281
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1644121828204462080

[Woody]

Speaking of land bridge:

US DOUBTS COUNTEROFFENSIVE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RESULTS - Washington Post

The reportedly leaked assessment dated by early February warns of considerable "force generation and sustainment shortfalls" and the likelihood that Ukraine's future counteroffensive will result in only "modest territorial gains," the WP wrote.

The publication called it a "marked departure" from the White House's public statements about the combat capability of the Ukrainian army.

The U.S. intelligence assessment, cited by the WP, indicates that Kyiv's strategy is to retake territory in the east and push south to cut Russia's land bridge to the occupied Crimea.

However, Russia's powerful defensive fortifications, combined with "enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies, will probably strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive," reads the document.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1645723360653877252

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1645803749099855875

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Speaking of land bridge:

US DOUBTS COUNTEROFFENSIVE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RESULTS - Washington Post

The reportedly leaked assessment dated by early February warns of considerable "force generation and sustainment shortfalls" and the likelihood that Ukraine's future counteroffensive will result in only "modest territorial gains," the WP wrote.

The publication called it a "marked departure" from the White House's public statements about the combat capability of the Ukrainian army.

The U.S. intelligence assessment, cited by the WP, indicates that Kyiv's strategy is to retake territory in the east and push south to cut Russia's land bridge to the occupied Crimea.

However, Russia's powerful defensive fortifications, combined with "enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies, will probably strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive," reads the document.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1645723360653877252

It would be worth thinking about what the goal of the counter-attack would be in general terms.
What is it aiming to do, how likely is it to achieve said aims, etc.
Of course, in fog of war, not everything will be so clear.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

On the subject of Wagner war crimes, this is their second documented beheading IIRC, but the first to be related to an IS-style execution video.

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1645884434376261637
These men will be a ticking time bomb in Russia once the hot phase of the war is over (more so than the Russian regulars, I think), unless they're never allowed to retire.

Edit: some Ukrainian Telegram sources claim the victim was a foreigner. If true, I suspect this story will gain traction pretty soon.

[Woody]

Wagner is especially cruel to foreign fighters.

I think out of the most they loathe, it's either captured Polish or Georgian soldiers.

[Storr]

Meanwhile Ukraine has been under official/legal martial since Feb 24, 2022.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1645887752943321089?s=20

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1645772951298490368?s=20

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1645784759245869061?s=20

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1645742697267752962?s=20

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1644356016589381632

Jaichind in shambles.

[lfromnj]

I mean that's like 10% worse than what it was in November of 2021. The Russians are fortunate that their central bank seems to competent and much less corrupt than their military.

[GoTfan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1AcPYNyAPo
«100 A10 Warthogs will enter Ukraine Immediately»

That should give a clear advantage for Ukraine as these warplanes have a reputation as tank slayers because in Gulf War, A10 Warthogs bombarded 1000 Iraqi Guard tanks, 2000 military vehicles and 1200 artillery pieces

The channel discloses in the comments that it is "waiting for confirmation", so I'd be skeptical.

The A-10 is arguably obsolescent and was useful 30 years ago only as a close air support platform, and only then because the Iraqi air defence network in Kuwait was mostly dismantled by other planes.

Ukraine will take what they can get (the A-10, in some ways, would be comparable to their pre-existing Su-25s), but they'd be much better with something multi-role/more survivable in contested airspace.

Any idea of pilot training would be included in the hypothetical package?

Good points about the A-10s not being a game changer in this combat environment, but I would imagine there are certain areas where Russian air defense systems are weaker than others, such as possibly the Kinburn Spit as a hypothetical.

The A-10 is a horrible aircraft. It's obsolete, slow-moving, has been responsible for more friendly fire than any other aircraft in US history, and requires the pilot to carry a pair of binoculars to identify targets that they get wrong most of the time anyway.

Pierre Sprey might be dead and the Reformers now a laughing stock, but their ghosts still haunt us to this day.

Seriously, those guys lie more than Trump does.

[Virginiá]

Not sure how you "lend" artillery shells to a country but I imagine the idea is that the US will send 500,000 more of its own and simply hold on to these while it waits for new production to refill its warehouses.

https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1646060263550984193

Also, more Bradleys and Abrams?

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1646052209577144320

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’m not posting the link but there is now a second beheading vid done by Wagner circling the internet

Edit: I’ll at least post this discussing the vid
https://mobile.twitter.com/United24media/status/1646049307122888708

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I really doubt A-10s are coming.
The A-10 is basically a glorified Supertucano at this point, it can’t operate in areas with any significant anti-defense systems. Which is to say basically all of Ukraine.

[The Mikado]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1AcPYNyAPo
«100 A10 Warthogs will enter Ukraine Immediately»

That should give a clear advantage for Ukraine as these warplanes have a reputation as tank slayers because in Gulf War, A10 Warthogs bombarded 1000 Iraqi Guard tanks, 2000 military vehicles and 1200 artillery pieces

The channel discloses in the comments that it is "waiting for confirmation", so I'd be skeptical.

The A-10 is arguably obsolescent and was useful 30 years ago only as a close air support platform, and only then because the Iraqi air defence network in Kuwait was mostly dismantled by other planes.

Ukraine will take what they can get (the A-10, in some ways, would be comparable to their pre-existing Su-25s), but they'd be much better with something multi-role/more survivable in contested airspace.

Any idea of pilot training would be included in the hypothetical package?

Good points about the A-10s not being a game changer in this combat environment, but I would imagine there are certain areas where Russian air defense systems are weaker than others, such as possibly the Kinburn Spit as a hypothetical.

The A-10 is a horrible aircraft. It's obsolete, slow-moving, has been responsible for more friendly fire than any other aircraft in US history, and requires the pilot to carry a pair of binoculars to identify targets that they get wrong most of the time anyway.

Pierre Sprey might be dead and the Reformers now a laughing stock, but their ghosts still haunt us to this day.

Seriously, those guys lie more than Trump does.

Who knew Lazerpig posted on this forum?

[GoTfan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1AcPYNyAPo
«100 A10 Warthogs will enter Ukraine Immediately»

That should give a clear advantage for Ukraine as these warplanes have a reputation as tank slayers because in Gulf War, A10 Warthogs bombarded 1000 Iraqi Guard tanks, 2000 military vehicles and 1200 artillery pieces

The channel discloses in the comments that it is "waiting for confirmation", so I'd be skeptical.

The A-10 is arguably obsolescent and was useful 30 years ago only as a close air support platform, and only then because the Iraqi air defence network in Kuwait was mostly dismantled by other planes.

Ukraine will take what they can get (the A-10, in some ways, would be comparable to their pre-existing Su-25s), but they'd be much better with something multi-role/more survivable in contested airspace.

Any idea of pilot training would be included in the hypothetical package?

Good points about the A-10s not being a game changer in this combat environment, but I would imagine there are certain areas where Russian air defense systems are weaker than others, such as possibly the Kinburn Spit as a hypothetical.

The A-10 is a horrible aircraft. It's obsolete, slow-moving, has been responsible for more friendly fire than any other aircraft in US history, and requires the pilot to carry a pair of binoculars to identify targets that they get wrong most of the time anyway.

Pierre Sprey might be dead and the Reformers now a laughing stock, but their ghosts still haunt us to this day.

Seriously, those guys lie more than Trump does.

Who knew Lazerpig posted on this forum?

It's an issue I've evolved on primarily because of Lazerpig. I used to love the idea of 'big gun go brrrt' like everyone else before I was enlightened as to how obsolete a gunfighter is in the modern battlespace.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1646160626123677699

[Hindsight was 2020]

We’re now in mid April and Russia still hasn’t won in Bakmut yet.

[John Dule]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1646160626123677699

Good move on their part! Fortunately their retarded adversaries don't bother to postpone offensives when they're unprepared.

[Woody]

Russia embracing it's Soviet past on occupied territories.

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1646198316688982026

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1646128291152031744
Why do the New York Times have to always be this constant propaganda machine? It’s so rare whenever I read something useful there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Russia embracing it's Soviet past on occupied territories.

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1646198316688982026

So....do conservatives actually believe this is a good thing? Like today the modern right actually wants to celebrate the Soviet Union's historical legacy?