Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Russian soldiers are also hunting endangered animals in the Askania-Nova wildlife reserve for sport. Barbarians.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1644823668374085632

[Woody]

Ukrainians tried to do a amphibious landing across the Dniepr to sieze the ZNPP way back in October, with 600 men. But it failed after three hours.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukrainian-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant-russia-putin-war-2023-fx82xz3xz

https://twitter.com/NieblaGuerra/status/1644480396476702720
From ISW:

Ukrainian special forces, intelligence, and naval sources revealed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attempted to stage an amphibious landing on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River on October 19, 2022, to liberate the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).[58] Ukrainian officials told The Times that about 600 Ukrainian servicemen on 30 armored boats attempted to land near the ZNPP, but that only one Ukrainian group was able to reach occupied territory due to the Russian artillery fire and Russian use of tanks to repel Ukrainian advances. The group retreated back to the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River after three hours of close combat on the outskirts of Enerhodar. Ukrainian sources stated that Ukrainian special forces anticipated that Russians would engage in infantry combat out of concern for the safety of the ZNPP and revealed that Russian forces set up dense defensive lines and mined the territory nearby. ISW reported on October 19 that Russian sources accused Ukrainians of attempting land near the ZNPP but failed to assess that a landing had taken place at that time.[59] Ukrainian state nuclear energy company Energoatom reported on April 8 that Russian forces are installing additional fences around the ZNPP and are restricting the movement of vehicles on the territory of the plant.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

MILESTONE-

It's now been 13 Scaramuccis since SirWoodbury first started doom-posting about Bakhmut.

[Hindsight was 2020]

MILESTONE-

It's now been 13 Scaramuccis since SirWoodbury first started doom-posting about Bakhmut.

It’s amazing this small town went longer than Stalingard, and if Russia does end up taking all of it at least it will stop dominating the thread

[American2020]

Multipolar World willing by tankies

[CumbrianLefty]

MILESTONE-

It's now been 13 Scaramuccis since SirWoodbury first started doom-posting about Bakhmut.

It’s amazing this small town went longer than Stalingard, and if Russia does end up taking all of it at least it will stop dominating the thread

A reminder too that Germany took 90% of Stalingrad and still lost.

[Woody]

MILESTONE-

It's now been 13 Scaramuccis since SirWoodbury first started doom-posting about Bakhmut.

It’s amazing this small town went longer than Stalingard, and if Russia does end up taking all of it at least it will stop dominating the thread

A reminder too that Germany took 90% of Stalingrad and still lost.

You think Ukraine is going to keep Bakhmut?? Difference is that Russia doesn't have it's flanks exposed.

If you're comparing this to Stalingrad then the Ukrainians are the Germans in this scenario.

[CumbrianLefty]

Russia is the aggressor, just like Germany. Surely only the truly brainwormed can dispute this.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1645141937052155904
https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1645141939233206275

[Woody]

Wagner & Russian Army has reached the railway line, fighting currently going on near the railway station.

The AFU's presence in the city is now only measly limited to it's western district.

Hey Woody, do you think Putin will complete his conquest of Bakhmut before losing his land bridge to Crimea? Any predictions?

He won't. That opportunity is way past over now.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1645108874117017603?cxt=HHwWhsCzqcHzzNQtAA...

[The Mikado]

Wagner & Russian Army has reached the railway line, fighting currently going on near the railway station.

The AFU's presence in the city is now only measly limited to it's western district.

Hey Woody, do you think Putin will complete his conquest of Bakhmut before losing his land bridge to Crimea? Any predictions?

He won't. That opportunity is way past over now.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1645108874117017603?cxt=HHwWhsCzqcHzzNQtAA...

Just reminding myself to bump this in September and see how it's aged.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1644981342860451842?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1645189370079584256?s=20

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1645189373728632836?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/neil_abrams/status/1644801712501436416?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/neil_abrams/status/1644801712501436416?s=20

The use of the word "Polack" stood out to me.
He really wants to flash a middle finger at Poland, it seems...

[CumbrianLefty]

If only we had past examples of Russia treating its Polish neighbours with overt contempt, eh.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If only we had past examples of Russia treating its Polish neighbours with overt contempt, eh.

Even taking into account the fact that Poles and Russians have a complicated and (probably generally negative) relationship over the past hundreds of years with high and low points for both countries, I don't see Poland's government using such demeaning language talking about Russians.
I guess in this context though, it might be relevant that Medvedev really isn't a very senior Russian government official anymore.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1645189373728632836?s=20

What matters for our purposes is that "what came next" was that many countries previously under the Russian imperial yoke took the opportunity to gain their full freedom. We can only hope history will repeat in that regard.

What happens to Russia proper is up for Russians to decide.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1645159196437151744

[UWS]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1AcPYNyAPo
«100 A10 Warthogs will enter Ukraine Immediately»

That should give a clear advantage for Ukraine as these warplanes have a reputation as tank slayers because in Gulf War, A10 Warthogs bombarded 1000 Iraqi Guard tanks, 2000 military vehicles and 1200 artillery pieces

[Dereich]

Wagner & Russian Army has reached the railway line, fighting currently going on near the railway station.

The AFU's presence in the city is now only measly limited to it's western district.

Hey Woody, do you think Putin will complete his conquest of Bakhmut before losing his land bridge to Crimea? Any predictions?

He won't. That opportunity is way past over now.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1645108874117017603?cxt=HHwWhsCzqcHzzNQtAA...

What does the fact that the Russians feel the need to build several extensive fortification lines across Northern Crimea mean in your estimation? Because to me, I can't imagine why they would waste so much time and effort building fortification lines to defend Crimea if they thought they were going to stop the Ukrainians north of Melitopol.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1AcPYNyAPo
«100 A10 Warthogs will enter Ukraine Immediately»

That should give a clear advantage for Ukraine as these warplanes have a reputation as tank slayers because in Gulf War, A10 Warthogs bombarded 1000 Iraqi Guard tanks, 2000 military vehicles and 1200 artillery pieces

The channel discloses in the comments that it is "waiting for confirmation", so I'd be skeptical.

The A-10 is arguably obsolescent and was useful 30 years ago only as a close air support platform, and only then because the Iraqi air defence network in Kuwait was mostly dismantled by other planes.

Ukraine will take what they can get (the A-10, in some ways, would be comparable to their pre-existing Su-25s), but they'd be much better with something multi-role/more survivable in contested airspace.

[NOVA Green]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1AcPYNyAPo
«100 A10 Warthogs will enter Ukraine Immediately»

That should give a clear advantage for Ukraine as these warplanes have a reputation as tank slayers because in Gulf War, A10 Warthogs bombarded 1000 Iraqi Guard tanks, 2000 military vehicles and 1200 artillery pieces

The channel discloses in the comments that it is "waiting for confirmation", so I'd be skeptical.

The A-10 is arguably obsolescent and was useful 30 years ago only as a close air support platform, and only then because the Iraqi air defence network in Kuwait was mostly dismantled by other planes.

Ukraine will take what they can get (the A-10, in some ways, would be comparable to their pre-existing Su-25s), but they'd be much better with something multi-role/more survivable in contested airspace.

Any idea of pilot training would be included in the hypothetical package?

Good points about the A-10s not being a game changer in this combat environment, but I would imagine there are certain areas where Russian air defense systems are weaker than others, such as possibly the Kinburn Spit as a hypothetical.

[UWS]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/15651

Patriot missile system, NASAMS short range missiles and SAMP/T short range missiles are on their way for Ukraine