Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-hundreds-t90m-received-surge-production

Russian Army Has Received Hundreds of T-90M Tanks Under Surged Production - Reports

The Russian Army has reportedly recently several hundred T-90M tanks ready for frontline operations, according to an anonymous source cited by state media outlet Sputnik, with large numbers of new T-72B3M tanks having also been delivered. The announcement closely follows indications by Deputy Chairman Russian Security Council former president Dmitry Medvedev in the penultimate week of March that 1500 of the vehicles would be produced over the next year. "We will make 1,500 tanks alone this year. You can calculate how much our enemy will get, even according to the most optimistic calculations.”

As by far the most capable tank in Russian service, the T-90M completed testing in February 2020 and joined the Army in April that year, but was acquired on a very limited scale before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian War in February. Major losses among older tank classes, and strong demonstration of the new model’s advantages, were key factors spurring a production surge.

One of the T-90M’s most notable advantages over older tanks is its integration of the 2A46M-5 gun and Kalina fire control system, which allow it to deploy the wide range specialised munitions some of which began to be seen in Ukraine in early 2023. The new tank also integrates a communication and command suite and digital communications systems significantly ahead of those of other operational Russian tanks. Its survivability benefits from the integration of the Afghanit active protection system and Relikt explosive reactive armour as well as isolation of munitions from the remainder of the vehicle internally, the benefits of which have already been seen in Ukraine..."

The Russian Army has received multiple batches of T-90Ms of unknown size since its forces began major operations in Ukraine in February 2022, with the vehicles beginning to be seen in the theatre in late April that year. Russia already comfortably outproduced all other tank manufacturers in the world combined with its T-90 output, although the large majority of these previously went to foreign clients most notably India and Algeria. The industry’s massive surplus capacity inherited from the Soviet era is expected to be key to facilitating production on a much larger scale not seen since 1991 to meet the demands of ongoing war in Ukraine and standoff with NATO. Whether production for export will continue to supplement the 1500 tanks produced for domestic use in the next year remains uncertain, with Russia’s dominant position in global markets for armour having been hard won and remaining highly prized.

Yeah, totally bro. 1500 T-90M. Thousands more to come. Pay no attention to the trainloads of T-54s coming out of storage in Siberia, I'm sure they're bringing those rust traps out of retirement because they have so many modern, functional tanks.

With reliable sources like Russian state media and even Dmitry Medvedev himself, I'll be taking this report very seriously.

If "1500 Black Tanks of Putin" includes everything from new production tanks to ancient T-54s being taken out of storage, then it's a plausible figure. It's entirely possible that in the Internet game of telephone, "1500 tanks put in service" somehow became "1500 tanks produced", which in turn became "1500 T-90Ms produced"

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1641846801606008833
https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1641847473382490141

[Woody]

Ukrainians have no positions near the Bakhmutka river anymore. Wagner has a beachhead & can assault properly from the east:

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1641856746007191564

[Woody]

Wagner raises flag at the heart of Bakhmut:

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1641856051224903690?cxt=HHwWlICwmabYhcktAAA...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1641851173408735240?s=20

[oldtimer]

UN data on Ukrainian demographics for 2021 and 2023

Looks like the 20-35 age group have seen a steep decline.  For the males, it is battle deaths and immigration (although the immigration part must be limited due to Ukraine laws against able-bodied men from leaving) and for females, it must be all immigration.

What was that one poster here wrote: "jairchild posts some meaningless statistic" ?

How do they get that number if no one is counting ?

And if those numbers where true the Ukrainian army would have already collapsed from lack of manpower, instead of being on the verge of victory.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1641833674910887937?cxt=HHwWgsCz1enB-8gtA...

[jaichind]

UN data on Ukrainian demographics for 2021 and 2023

Looks like the 20-35 age group have seen a steep decline.  For the males, it is battle deaths and immigration (although the immigration part must be limited due to Ukraine laws against able-bodied men from leaving) and for females, it must be all immigration.

What was that one poster here wrote: "jairchild posts some meaningless statistic" ?

How do they get that number if no one is counting ?

And if those numbers where true the Ukrainian army would have already collapsed from lack of manpower, instead of being on the verge of victory.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine

Wikipedia has a similar chart for 2023 population pyramid

[Storr]

Anti-tank gun introduced in 1961:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1641697283510091776?s=20

[oldtimer]

UN data on Ukrainian demographics for 2021 and 2023

Looks like the 20-35 age group have seen a steep decline.  For the males, it is battle deaths and immigration (although the immigration part must be limited due to Ukraine laws against able-bodied men from leaving) and for females, it must be all immigration.

What was that one poster here wrote: "jairchild posts some meaningless statistic" ?

How do they get that number if no one is counting ?

And if those numbers where true the Ukrainian army would have already collapsed from lack of manpower, instead of being on the verge of victory.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine

Wikipedia has a similar chart for 2023 population pyramid

The statistics about manpower are only of the few that really matter in a war.
However the numbers don't agree with the battlefield, so someone is making them up.

If it was correct then why is Russia losing instead ?

Or as you would put it "russia is winning, just in the other direction" ?

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://mobile.twitter.com/wgdunlop/status/1641145262209892614
https://mobile.twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1641211884194897920

bawhat?  But General Woody has been suggesting Ukraine leave for months and obviously he knows more than DoD intelligence.

Given the poor track record of US intelligence (right up to and including massive failures in both Afghanistan and Ukraine within the last two years) down the decades he probably does.

What failure would that be in Ukraine?

US Intelligence said exactly what was going to happen happened, but Euros weren’t listening because lol Iraq.

The one where they overestimated the strength of the Russian invasion force and predicted that Ukraine would collapse quickly (and if you don’t believe me you can search “US intelligence failure Ukraine” and read more about it). I wouldn’t consider the fact that they correctly predicted that there would be a Russian invasion to obviate the fact that they seemed to lack understanding of Russian strategy, the quality of the invasion force and, most bizarrely, the strength of Ukrainian resistance (given that the US has, you know, been cooperating closely with the Ukrainian military for years). That seems more relevant for assessing their competence in analysing the state of the Russian forces now than the fact that they successfully predicted that an invasion force would… invade.

[Woody]

UN data on Ukrainian demographics for 2021 and 2023

Looks like the 20-35 age group have seen a steep decline.  For the males, it is battle deaths and immigration (although the immigration part must be limited due to Ukraine laws against able-bodied men from leaving) and for females, it must be all immigration.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsfKVRSXoAAxkP5?format=jpg&name=small

What was that one poster here wrote: "jairchild posts some meaningless statistic" ?

How do they get that number if no one is counting ?

And if those numbers where true the Ukrainian army would have already collapsed from lack of manpower, instead of being on the verge of victory.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine

Wikipedia has a similar chart for 2023 population pyramid

The statistics about manpower are only of the few that really matter in a war.
However the numbers don't agree with the battlefield, so someone is making them up.

If it was correct then why is Russia losing instead ?

Simple answer, they're not. Ukraine has had waves of mobilization, and yet they're still barely holding the line (witch cracks here and there) after Russia started with one wave of mobilization.

[oldtimer]

Anti-tank gun introduced in 1961:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1641697283510091776?s=20

Frankly I wouldn't be surprised with BT-7 from the 1930's making a comeback.

Since tanks last so little in action before getting blown up, everyone needs the fastest cheapest thing available that can be mass produced, and doesn't trigger anti-tank mines from it's weight.

[oldtimer]

UN data on Ukrainian demographics for 2021 and 2023

Looks like the 20-35 age group have seen a steep decline.  For the males, it is battle deaths and immigration (although the immigration part must be limited due to Ukraine laws against able-bodied men from leaving) and for females, it must be all immigration.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsfKVRSXoAAxkP5?format=jpg&name=small

What was that one poster here wrote: "jairchild posts some meaningless statistic" ?

How do they get that number if no one is counting ?

And if those numbers where true the Ukrainian army would have already collapsed from lack of manpower, instead of being on the verge of victory.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine

Wikipedia has a similar chart for 2023 population pyramid

The statistics about manpower are only of the few that really matter in a war.
However the numbers don't agree with the battlefield, so someone is making them up.

If it was correct then why is Russia losing instead ?

Simple answer, they're not. Ukraine has had waves of mobilization, and yet they're still barely holding the line (witch cracks here and there) after Russia started with one wave of mobilization.

I speak frequent bullcr@p (pardon my expression), so allow me to translate your official P.R. statement:

It's complex, but they are. Russia had a mobilization, and yet Russia is still barely holding the line (which cracks here and there) after Ukraine started to mobilize.

[jaichind]

The statistics about manpower are only of the few that really matter in a war.
However the numbers don't agree with the battlefield, so someone is making them up.

If it was correct then why is Russia losing instead ?

Or as you would put it "russia is winning, just in the other direction" ?

I did not mean to infer anything about winning or losing other than  "It seems Ukraine either has a lot of manpower losses on the battlefield or have a lot of leakage in young men leaving the country"

Given the scale of fighting (several hundred K on both sides) while the Ukraine population pyramid does not look good given men in the 30s and 40s are able also able to fight on the front I do not foresee these numbers implying that Ukraine is running out of men or losing the war.

[Cassius]

https://mobile.twitter.com/wgdunlop/status/1641145262209892614
https://mobile.twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1641211884194897920

bawhat?  But General Woody has been suggesting Ukraine leave for months and obviously he knows more than DoD intelligence.

Given the poor track record of US intelligence (right up to and including massive failures in both Afghanistan and Ukraine within the last two years) down the decades he probably does.

What failure would that be in Ukraine?

US Intelligence said exactly what was going to happen happened, but Euros weren’t listening because lol Iraq.

The one where they overestimated the strength of the Russian invasion force and predicted that Ukraine would collapse quickly (and if you don’t believe me you can search “US intelligence failure Ukraine” and read more about it). I wouldn’t consider the fact that they correctly predicted that there would be a Russian invasion to obviate the fact that they seemed to lack understanding of Russian strategy, the quality of the invasion force and, most bizarrely, the strength of Ukrainian resistance (given that the US has, you know, been cooperating closely with the Ukrainian military for years). That seems more relevant for assessing their competence in analysing the state of the Russian forces now than the fact that they successfully predicted that an invasion force would… invade.

It’s a good meme, but “proper army” or no, taking a large, dense, defended urban area isn’t something that can realistically be done in three days. The only way you’d get that scenario is by assuming one side would collapse (which was apparently the view of most US intelligence sources on the Ukrainian military).

[Hindsight was 2020]

We’re entering April, Bakmut still hasn’t fallen, most on the ground assessments is it actually won’t fall after all, Russia has made practically no changes to the line since last year yet Woodbury says Ukraine is “barley holding the line”? 🙄

[Virginiá]

All but 500 million of this package is USAI funding, so those weapons will come from industry and thus will arrive on the battlefield down the road. This continues the trend of increased USAI funding to keep Ukraine supplied long-term, and possibly also suggesting the US is nearing the limits of what it can give from its own stocks with some types of weapons (a couple notable systems being Javelin and Stinger missiles)

https://mobile.twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1641898530041200640

[The Dowager Mod]

I'm no military expert, but it seems to me if you are pulling 40 year old tanks out of storage you are not winning.

[jaichind]

I'm no military expert, but it seems to me if you are pulling 40 year old tanks out of storage you are not winning.

Would not that logic also apply to sending Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine ?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I'm no military expert, but it seems to me if you are pulling 40 year old tanks out of storage you are not winning.

Would not that logic also apply to sending Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine ?

It might if Germany (or whoever else was sending some Leopard 1's) were at at war with Russia.

So, if Germany were at war with Russia, and all their Leopard 2's had been destroyed and they were forced to rely on pulling out old Leopard 1's, yes, that would be a sign that Germany might be losing.

But that's not what's happening here, is it?

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.6%        +3.2%       +1.8%      +4.2%      +3.3%          +1.5%
Dec         -3.3%        +3.2%       +1.9%      +4.3%      +3.0%          +1.4%
Jan          -3.0%        +3.3%       +2.1%      +4.2%     +3.0%           +1.3%
Feb          -2.1%        +3.4%       +2.1%      +4.1%     +3.0%          +1.1%
Mar          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%

* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.7%      +4.9%        +1.3%
Dec          -2.7%       -0.1%         +0.3%       -1.0%      +4.8%        +1.3%
Jan           -2.9%        0.0%         +0.5%       -0.9%      +5.1%        +1.3%
Feb          -2.5%       +0.4%        +0.8%       -0.7%      +5.2%        +1.2%
Mar          -1.7%       +0.5%        +1.0%       -0.5%      +5.3%        +1.1%
 
2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.3%
Dec       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.1%          +2.4%
Jan        +13.8%       +8.4%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Feb       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Mar       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%

CPI for 2022 mostly locked in.  2022 GDP UK and Eurozone adjusted upward while 2022 GDP Japan got adjusted downward.  For 2023 Russia went up a lot and is converging toward the IMF projection of actual economic growth.  USA Eurozone UK and PRC 2023 GDP prospects went up while Japan went down.

Once you take into account that 2021 UK GDP growth got marked down by 0.6% and 2021 Russia GDP growth got marked up 0.9% one can then construct a total cumulative 2022-2023 GDP loss based on current consensus/result vs 2022 Feb consensus as a percentage of 2021 GDP

(change from Feb 2023 calculation)
Russia      -7.7% (+0.7%)
Eurozone  -2.6% (+0.2%)
USA         -3.2% (+0.2%)
UK           -3.4% (+0.4%)
PRC          -2.1% (+0.1%)
Japan       -2.4% (-0.2%)

The most recent banking issues in US and Eurozone might mean these numbers might be too positive for them but if that were the case we will see these averages change over the coming months.  The Russia economic story relative to what was expected continue to brighten even as the same is taking place to a smaller extent in the collective West as well.

[jaichind]

I'm no military expert, but it seems to me if you are pulling 40 year old tanks out of storage you are not winning.

Would not that logic also apply to sending Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine ?

It might if Germany (or whoever else was sending some Leopard 1's) were at at war with Russia.

So, if Germany were at war with Russia, and all their Leopard 2's had been destroyed and they were forced to rely on pulling out old Leopard 1's, yes, that would be a sign that Germany might be losing.

But that's not what's happening here, is it?

I would argue that it is even worse.  At least Russia is using old tanks that fit with their tank doctrine  and consistent with their logical/repair/spare parts system.  Ukraine is taking old tanks that do not even fit with their tank doctrine. The latter, just looking at this specific case, seems more desperate.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The leopard 1 is still an active tank so I don’t know how that’s an equivalent of the dinosaurs that we’re seeing Russia bring out of retirement

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I would argue that it is even worse.  At least Russia is using old tanks that fit with their tank doctrine  and consistent with their logical/repair/spare parts system.  Ukraine is taking old tanks that do not even fit with their tank doctrine. The latter, just looking at this specific case, seems more desperate.

That's a pretty uninformed take.

First of all, Leopard 1s are a heck of a lot better than T-55s (or frankly, even the last remnants of relatively more modern stuff that Russia still has left), and some properly used Leopard 1's can and will wipe the floor with hot ex-Soviet garbage, as you will see in the coming months.

Fortunately for you, you are only a Putinist keyboard commando, not a Russian soldier in a trench, so you won't be the one finding out the hard way.

Secondly, the reason why Ukraine has been given Leopard 1's and 2s is not because there is any shortage of other more modern tanks that could be given, but rather it is because it was thought to be better for Ukraine to get Leopard tanks rather than just giving Ukraine a bunch of M-1 Abrams. There are some good technical reasons for that, most importantly that the Abrams uses a jet engine which is very different from the diesel engines which the Leopard uses, which is much more similar to the diesel engines Ukraine's current ex-Soviet tanks use, and with which Ukrainian mechanics are familiar. And in addition to using a jet engine, the Abrams requires prodigious amounts of fuel.

Additionally, the plan earlier on was to give Ukraine Leopards so that European countries could give Ukraine some tanks rather than having the USA provide 100% of the tanks, while USA would have provided other non-tank AFVs that better fit the requirements of Ukrainian logistics (Bradleys, Strykers, etc).

However, at this point Ukraine is also getting M-1 Abrams, because this was politically necessary to get Scholz to feel comfortable with allowing Leopards to be sent. And even if European countries totally 100% run out of Leopards to give, I can promise you that there is no way we are going to run out of M-1 Abrams that can be given to Ukraine.

Here is a video showing you what we have sitting there idly at the Sierra Army Depot, most of which could be patched up and shipped off to Ukraine if actually needed:

If you spend the 1 minute watching that video, it should be abundantly clear that Ukraine is not going to run out of AFVs even if this war lasts decades.

The US military did not lose a single M-1 Abrams tank to enemy fire in the 1991 gulf war. NOT A SINGLE ONE!!! This is despite those all being models which are now 30 years old, while Russia is currently using equivalent models to what the Iraqi's were using in 1991.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_73_Easting
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Medina_Ridge
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Norfolk

So I think Ukraine will fare just fine if we simply give them even comparatively small numbers of M-1s from our absurdly massive stockpile. And if we were to give them a larger quantity from that stockpile, well... let's leave that to the imagination. If you disagree, I hope you enjoy being wrong (it does seem like you do), because you are going to be proven very wrong indeed.

And tbh, if we really wanted we could probably not even bother sending any more M-1s than the ones already announced, and just send old M-60s instead, and those would also obliterate anything that Russia could throw against them with comparatively low losses.