Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1639515935580225537
British intelligence is reporting that Russia has stalled its offensive operations in Bakmut and shifting focus elsewhere

[CumbrianLefty]

Were all those Woody posts really in vain?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Were all those Woody posts really in vain?

Yes

https://mobile.twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1639621558191927297

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1639655739261157376
Red Velvet in shambles

[lfromnj]

You can hear the speech on mute because she's Italian.

[Woody]

Were all those Woody posts really in vain?

Yes

https://mobile.twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1639621558191927297

Wow, I'm so owned.. let's hold a city that's surrounded by all sides and way past it's expiration date to own Woodbury. Are the guys that are currently fighting there, who are also advocating for withdrawal, also "butthurt" as you say in your own words?

[Hindsight was 2020]

And not to shock anyone but the draw down in Bakmut is also a signal of the end of Russia’s counteroffensive. Lost tens of thousands of men and thousands of equipment for practically no change of territory.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1639445348828557315

[Torie]

"Culminating" means ending? Who knew? I guess English is not ISW's first language.

Anyway, what both sides are putting out at the moment mostly seems to be disinformation. A case in point is the "leak" that U's counteroffensive is going to be centered in Bakhmut itself, sort of like that red dot "storm" on Jupiter that never seems to fade away.

I still don't see how a U offensive will work out well without air superiority myself. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

"Culminating" means ending? Who knew? I guess English is not ISW's first language.

Anyway, what both sides are putting out at the moment mostly seems to be disinformation. A case in point is the "leak" that U's counteroffensive is going to be centered in Bakhmut itself, sort of like that red dot "storm" on Jupiter that never seems to fade away.

I still don't see how a U offensive will work out well without air superiority myself. 

Was that even a leak? I thought that was just Prigozhin making a baseless statement in order to convince Putin to side with him over his power struggle with Shoigu

[Torie]

"Culminating" means ending? Who knew? I guess English is not ISW's first language.

Anyway, what both sides are putting out at the moment mostly seems to be disinformation. A case in point is the "leak" that U's counteroffensive is going to be centered in Bakhmut itself, sort of like that red dot "storm" on Jupiter that never seems to fade away.

I still don't see how a U offensive will work out well without air superiority myself. 

Was that even a leak? I thought that was just Prigozhin making a baseless statement in order to convince Putin to side with him over his power struggle with Shoigu

Here is the source. My instinct is that it is disinformation.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/23/europe/bakhmut-ukraine-counter-offensive-intl/index.html

[Hindsight was 2020]

"Culminating" means ending? Who knew? I guess English is not ISW's first language.

Anyway, what both sides are putting out at the moment mostly seems to be disinformation. A case in point is the "leak" that U's counteroffensive is going to be centered in Bakhmut itself, sort of like that red dot "storm" on Jupiter that never seems to fade away.

I still don't see how a U offensive will work out well without air superiority myself. 

Was that even a leak? I thought that was just Prigozhin making a baseless statement in order to convince Putin to side with him over his power struggle with Shoigu

Here is the source. My instinct is that it is disinformation.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/23/europe/bakhmut-ukraine-counter-offensive-intl/index.html

Ohhh okay I read that statement as they were going to do a localized counterattack in Bakmut more so than saying that Bakmut was going to be the center of the general counterattack. Because I can see a counterattack happening and Russia does have its flanks exposed and with all the drama with Wagner a good penetration could cause a route

[rc18]

"Culminating" means ending? Who knew? I guess English is not ISW's first language.

Culminating point is a specific concept in military strategy expounded by Carl von Clausewitz. It means that a force is no longer capable of successfully carrying out its operations; the threat from their strategy has peaked.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culminating_point

[Woody]

Your gold standard ISW from the end of December 2022..

"Culminated Russian forces could continue to carry out assaults but would be very unlikely to make operationally significant gains."

Two weeks later Soledar falls and Wagner advances north/crosses the Bakhmutivka, and throughout the next weeks take the majority of the city.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1608285680526036993

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-says-russia-to-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus-reports/

"Putin says Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, state media report"

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-says-russia-to-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus-reports/

"Putin says Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, state media report"

Put nukes in a country whose leader grip on power is shaky at best. 12D chest from Putin again

[UWS]

According to this video, Ukraine has already mobilized 60,000 troops for the spring counteroffensive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47B-wvyrB2A

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65075952

"No Ukraine offensive without more weapons – Zelensky"

I was confused about why Ukraine publicly told everyone, including the Russians, about their upcoming offensive.  At least this statement now makes more sense.  The goal here is to get more weapons.  It is not to say there is no offensive.  There very might well be one.  But the point of telling everyone about it is to put pressure on the collective West to send more weapons.

[pppolitics]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65075952

"No Ukraine offensive without more weapons – Zelensky"

I was confused about why Ukraine publicly told everyone, including the Russians, about their upcoming offensive.  At least this statement now makes more sense.  The goal here is to get more weapons.  It is not to say there is no offensive.  There very might well be one.  But the point of telling everyone about it is to put pressure on the collective West to send more weapons.

More likely, it's to send mixed signals to confuse the enemy.

[Torie]

https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-says-russia-to-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus-reports/

"Putin says Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, state media report"

If Putin can put tactical nukes in Belarus, why can't the US put tactical nukes in Ukraine? What's good for the goose is good for the gander. Putin's move seems ill advised from even his own sociopathic mindset. It kind of reeks of desperation actually.

Hey Biden, exploit this to expedite Ukraine achieving air superiority if you get the drift.

[CanadianDemocrat]

Were all those Woody posts really in vain?

It has now been 8.5 months since Russia took a major city in July.

[The Mikado]

https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-says-russia-to-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus-reports/

"Putin says Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, state media report"

Put nukes in a country whose leader grip on power is shaky at best. 12D chest from Putin again

In all fairness to Putin (something I don't say a lot), Russia would have sole possessions of the nuclear codes that make the things useable. Something most people don't mention in the historical point about Ukraine and Kazakhstan giving up the nukes they inherited from the Soviets in the 1990s is that those nukes were useless to them because the Kremlin were the only ones with the launch codes.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-says-russia-to-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus-reports/

"Putin says Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, state media report"

Couldn't they already station nukes in Kaliningrad if they wanted? So this is really just pointless posturing and is likely to simply stir up Belarusian partisans more than anything and probably even just regular citizens who would prefer to not be a nuclear target.

[Lord Halifax]

https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-says-russia-to-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus-reports/

"Putin says Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, state media report"

Put nukes in a country whose leader grip on power is shaky at best. 12D chest from Putin again

In all fairness to Putin (something I don't say a lot), Russia would have sole possessions of the nuclear codes that make the things useable. Something most people don't mention in the historical point about Ukraine and Kazakhstan giving up the nukes they inherited from the Soviets in the 1990s is that those nukes were useless to them because the Kremlin were the only ones with the launch codes.

Ukraine might have been able to take control of some of them, but not the most useful ones (the ones that could have hit targets in European Russia), and it was too expensive.

Ukraine’s Monolit produced critical pieces of hardware for command and control of Soviet ICBMs, including devices that blocked unauthorized access, and could attempt to adapt existing systems to establish control over the SS-24s. The question seems to have been not whether Ukraine would be capable to acquire launch control but rather how long it would take and how much it would cost. Bruce Blair, an expert in US and Soviet nuclear command and control systems, concludes that the easiest route would have been for Ukraine to rebuild an independent guidance system and blocking devices for the SS-24s produced by Pivdenmash.

The ranges of the SS-24s, however, were not suitable for the purposes of credibly deterring Russia: their shortest range was 2,700 kilometers and thus could not hold at risk targets in the European part of Russia. The older SS-19s would have been more suitable for the purpose - they had been tested for ranges of about 1,000 kilometers, roughly the distance between Khmelnitsky in Ukraine, where 90 of them deployed, to Moscow. While the SS-19 guidance systems were built in Ukraine, the missiles themselves were not and their service life was due to run out in 1998. Moreover, the highly toxic liquid propellant used in them made them expensive and dangerous to handle.

"Interpreting the Bomb: Ownership and Deterrence in Ukraine’s Nuclear Discourse" by Polina Sinovets and Mariana Budjeryn. NPIHP Working Paper #12 December 2017

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

"Culminating" means ending? Who knew? I guess English is not ISW's first language.

Anyway, what both sides are putting out at the moment mostly seems to be disinformation. A case in point is the "leak" that U's counteroffensive is going to be centered in Bakhmut itself, sort of like that red dot "storm" on Jupiter that never seems to fade away.

I still don't see how a U offensive will work out well without air superiority myself. 

I would guess they're using it in the same sense as Clausewitz (stuff I wouldn't have known 13 months ago):

On the offensive, the culminating point marks the time when the attacking force can no longer continue its advance, because of supply problems, the opposing force, or the need for rest.[2] The task of the attacker is to complete its objectives before the culminating point is reached. The task of the defender on the other hand, is to bring the attacking force to its culminating point before its objectives are completed.[3]

The concept of a culminating point (Kulminationspunkt) was formulated by the Prussian general and military theorist Carl von Clausewitz in his book On War published in 1832 (Book 7, Chapter 5).

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-says-russia-to-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus-reports/

"Putin says Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, state media report"

Put nukes in a country whose leader grip on power is shaky at best. 12D chest from Putin again

In all fairness to Putin (something I don't say a lot), Russia would have sole possessions of the nuclear codes that make the things useable. Something most people don't mention in the historical point about Ukraine and Kazakhstan giving up the nukes they inherited from the Soviets in the 1990s is that those nukes were useless to them because the Kremlin were the only ones with the launch codes.

Unless, then and now, the Soviets/Russians did :

Remember all those cold war movies where nuclear missile crews are frantically dialing in the secret codes sent by the White House to launch nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles? Well, for two decades, all the Minuteman nuclear missiles in the US used the same eight-digit numeric passcode to enable their warheads: 00000000.

That fact, originally revealed in a column in 2004 by then-president of the Center for Defense Information Dr. Bruce G. Blair, a former US Air Force officer who manned Minuteman silos, was also mentioned in a paper by Steven M. Bellovin, a computer science professor at Columbia University who teaches security architecture. Both of these sources were cited this week in an article on the site Today I Found Out written by  Karl Smallwood, as well as in an article in the UK's Daily Mail.