Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

BASED.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1636750487310716928

This needs to be more in focus and is probably more important than land in any peace deal, IMO.

[Sir Mohamed]

BASED.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1636750487310716928

This needs to be more in focus and is probably more important than land in any peace deal, IMO.

Yup, though Russia doesn't recognize the ICC anyway. Neither does the US and other powers.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

BASED.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1636750487310716928

This needs to be more in focus and is probably more important than land in any peace deal, IMO.

Yup, though Russia doesn't recognize the ICC anyway. Neither does the US and other powers.

To clarify - I don't mean the ICC, which will be going nowhere. I mean the mass kidnapping of children.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

French article from January about Lvova-Belova is horrifying

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230113-mother-russia-maria-lvova-belova-the-putin-ally-deporting-ukrainian-children

[Santander]

my favorite part of the story is that Russians (and those that simp for them) just love the AK, claim it's the best and there have been about 75 kabillion of them made, but Russia still has to import cheap Chinese M16 knockoffs less than a year into a war they started.

Do you really think the import of 1000 M16 clones (not even confirmed to be seeing combat action, and highly doubtful that they are) invalidates the AK? I'm pretty sure over its decades of service winning freedom for millions of people, it's proven its worth. Wars in 2023 are neither won nor lost by rifles, especially not a mere 1000.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1636804540518236187
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1636819015803781127
NATO intelligence is apparently reporting that Ukraine is still enjoying a 3:1 Kia in Bakmut

[President Johnson]

1,500 per day, if true, is a lot more than the US lost per day in May 1968, the worst month of 'Nam. Let that sink in.

[The Mikado]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Bumping, two weeks later. Bakhmut STILL hasn't fallen yet.

Bumping after a month. A lot of the "Bakhmut will fall any day now" confident posts from Jan/Feb look really ridiculous now.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Bumping, two weeks later. Bakhmut STILL hasn't fallen yet.

Bumping after a month. A lot of the "Bakhmut will fall any day now" confident posts from Jan/Feb look really ridiculous now.

The February posts in particular look ridiculous because the assumption was Ukraine would retreat when it was more sensible to do so (i.e. that a retreat would start in February at the latest). On the face of it (discounting an "anonymous NATO source" cited by the Guardian), it looks like they are paying a needlessly heavy price for failure to retreat earlier.

[BG-NY]

What’s the most realistic (as in likelihood of happening) path to this conflict ending with minimal future bloodshed?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What’s the most realistic (as in likelihood of happening) path to this conflict ending with minimal future bloodshed?

One in which Ukraine has a clear path to entering a supranational body (the EU and/or NATO). In the absence of alternative security guarantees which international powers seem unwilling to provide, entry to these bodies is likely to depend on a peace deal, not a mere ceasefire (unless Ukraine controls all that it claims at the time of the ceasefire). This almost certainly requires Vladimir Putin being replaced, given his historical preference for minimal ceasefires/frozen conflicts.

[BG-NY]

What’s the most realistic (as in likelihood of happening) path to this conflict ending with minimal future bloodshed?

One in which Ukraine has a clear path to entering a supranational body (the EU and/or NATO). In the absence of alternative security guarantees which international powers seem unwilling to provide, entry to these bodies is likely to depend on a peace deal, not a mere ceasefire (unless Ukraine controls all that it claims at the time of the ceasefire). This almost certainly requires Vladimir Putin being replaced, given his historical preference for minimal ceasefires/frozen conflicts.

Is Putin being replaced realistic? If not, what is the path to a ceasefire?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What’s the most realistic (as in likelihood of happening) path to this conflict ending with minimal future bloodshed?

One in which Ukraine has a clear path to entering a supranational body (the EU and/or NATO). In the absence of alternative security guarantees which international powers seem unwilling to provide, entry to these bodies is likely to depend on a peace deal, not a mere ceasefire (unless Ukraine controls all that it claims at the time of the ceasefire). This almost certainly requires Vladimir Putin being replaced, given his historical preference for minimal ceasefires/frozen conflicts.

Is Putin being replaced realistic?

No one should base their foreign policy on it happening anytime soon, but he's 70 and some of his actions seem to be informed by concern about domestic backlash to the war. It's certainly realistic that he could be replaced.

If not, what is the path to a ceasefire?

I don't know which is the best, but there's more than one. An unstable ceasefire/frozen conflict which doesn't lead to a lasting peace seems the most realistic scenario, unfortunately.

[HillGoose]

What’s the most realistic (as in likelihood of happening) path to this conflict ending with minimal future bloodshed?

NATO gets involved and destroys all russian military capabilities within minutes using PGS systems

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1636790150481969168

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What’s the most realistic (as in likelihood of happening) path to this conflict ending with minimal future bloodshed?

Korean style ceasefire

[jaichind]

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/economics/widodo-urges-indonesia-to-abandon-visa-mastercard-to-be-inde

"Widodo urges Indonesia to abandon Visa, MasterCard to be 'independent'"

Indonesia Prez pushing for decoupling from foreign payment networks like MasterCard and Visa in order to mitigate geopolitical risk for the Indonesian economy.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-17/top-oil-exporter-saudi-arabia-loads-up-on-russian-diesel

"Top Oil Exporter Saudi Arabia Loads Up on Russian Diesel"

Saudi Arabia’s imports of diesel from Russia have surged
At the same time, the kingdom is sending big amounts to Europe

Saudi Arabia getting into this recycling of Russian energy game which India is already very big in.  Competition between Saudi Arabia and India as energy middlemen will for sure reduce the Russian energy discount.    Malaysia is already in this game but its main role is to disguise Russian energy exports to PRC whereas India and Saudi Arabia is mostly targeting the EU as the destination.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This meme is funny but inaccurate.
I actually think America Good and I care about protecting American power and global stability through whatever means are necessary.
But you would know that by now if you actually read my posts earnestly, in a fair spirit of inquiry.
I'm happy enough that we have an administration that basically follows my school of thought, where loose cannons and mindless hawks aren't calling the shots. My school of thought is mostly winning in real life, which matters more than the feelings of people on a singular internet forum.
That you think that I think "America bad" shows how little you actually know about my attitudes, personally. You are just assuming I share the same set of ideas for how government ought to work as you. I don't. Please get that in your head.

[emailking]

Defiant Putin makes ‘working visit’ to occupied Mariupol, symbol of Ukrainian resistance

Vladimir Putin has made a “working visit” to Russian-occupied Mariupol, in an apparently defiant move reported just days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him.

Putin was flown into Mariupol by helicopter and toured districts around the city in a car, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.

It said the Russian leader had stopped to speak to residents in the city’s Nevsky neighborhood and claimed he was invited into a resident’s home. It did not make clear when the visit took place.

News of the visit comes after the ICC issued arrest warrants on Friday for Putin and Russian official Maria Lvova-Belova for an alleged scheme to deport Ukrainian children to Russia.

The visit is likely to be seen as particularly provocative to Ukrainians as Mariupol was long a symbol of resistance that has witnessed some of the most intense fighting since Russia launched its invasion last year.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/19/europe/putin-mariupol-visit-icc-intl-hnk/index.html

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This meme is funny but inaccurate.
I actually think America Good and I care about protecting American power and global stability through whatever means are necessary.
But you would know that by now if you actually read my posts earnestly, in a fair spirit of inquiry.
I'm happy enough that we have an administration that basically follows my school of thought, where loose cannons and mindless hawks aren't calling the shots. My school of thought is mostly winning in real life, which matters more than the feelings of people on a singular internet forum.
That you think that I think "America bad" shows how little you actually know about my attitudes, personally. You are just assuming I share the same set of ideas for how government ought to work as you. I don't. Please get that in your head.

I'm not referring to America, I'm referring to Russia/Ukraine.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This meme is funny but inaccurate.
I actually think America Good and I care about protecting American power and global stability through whatever means are necessary.
But you would know that by now if you actually read my posts earnestly, in a fair spirit of inquiry.
I'm happy enough that we have an administration that basically follows my school of thought, where loose cannons and mindless hawks aren't calling the shots. My school of thought is mostly winning in real life, which matters more than the feelings of people on a singular internet forum.
That you think that I think "America bad" shows how little you actually know about my attitudes, personally. You are just assuming I share the same set of ideas for how government ought to work as you. I don't. Please get that in your head.

I'm not referring to America, I'm referring to Russia/Ukraine.

Hmm. Still, inaccurate. Personally, I don't think I could call either Russia or Ukraine bad, looking at them. Russia is an important stabilizer and counterweight in most of the post-Soviet sphere overall (of course, not so in Ukraine). And a big chunk of Ukraine bad is often based off nonsensical talking points of it being "Nazi" or something. Ukraine's government is deeply dysfunctional in many areas and the country is a basketcase, but that does not make it bad.

That's nonsense. Neither Russia nor Ukraine are remotely Nazi states, regardless of what either side's propaganda claims, though they by now both share the revisionism of Nazi Germany (revisionism here meaning desire to revise existing borders). Ukraine wants effectively Russian Crimea (and I figure that if Ukraine gets it back - something I favor in the abstract - it might have to be put on a leash by outside actors in how it acts there), and Russia's qualifications for this defy a need for mere explanation.

Of course, Russia doesn't have to be "broadly bad" or orientalized (which it often is in the West) for one to justify punishing it for this invasion, and that is precisely my position. This sort of stuff is compartmentalized and in the "Ukraine compartment" Russia has shown it must be punished for sake of global stability (the post-Soviet sphere is not the globe overall), regardless of what it does more broadly. We can't let people have too many ideas.

In Ukraine and in Europe more generally, Russia is our clear opponent. In keeping the peace in places like Armenia vs Azerbaijan, on the other hand, or in acting in areas of common interest (such as getting an Iran nuclear deal), we can collaborate. I favor working with any and all countries as needed if that is a net good for US interests. Sadly, careful managerialism has been disrupted by the Trump administration and our credibility was hit as a result.

[Woody]

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:

https://twitter.com/GraphicW5/status/1637330417358446593
https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/status/1637365838314364929
https://twitter.com/GraphicW5/status/1637330909266427904
https://twitter.com/Marianna9110/status/1637366206163296256
https://twitter.com/its_maria012/status/1637360841380204545

[pppolitics]

Defiant Putin makes ‘working visit’ to occupied Mariupol, symbol of Ukrainian resistance

Vladimir Putin has made a “working visit” to Russian-occupied Mariupol, in an apparently defiant move reported just days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him.

Putin was flown into Mariupol by helicopter and toured districts around the city in a car, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.

It said the Russian leader had stopped to speak to residents in the city’s Nevsky neighborhood and claimed he was invited into a resident’s home. It did not make clear when the visit took place.

News of the visit comes after the ICC issued arrest warrants on Friday for Putin and Russian official Maria Lvova-Belova for an alleged scheme to deport Ukrainian children to Russia.

The visit is likely to be seen as particularly provocative to Ukrainians as Mariupol was long a symbol of resistance that has witnessed some of the most intense fighting since Russia launched its invasion last year.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/19/europe/putin-mariupol-visit-icc-intl-hnk/index.html

Putin doesn't talk to normal people.

Any 'encounter' that he has with the public is staged.