Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

LiveUAMap shows that Krasnohorivka is under Russian control and that fighting has reached the main road into Avdiivka.  If Ukraine cannot hold its position in  Stepove there might be an operational encirclement here as well.


Ukraine's press releases also mention that fighting has reached Stepove although they have beaten back the Russians there.
https://ukranews.com/en/news/921148-enemy-attacks-maryanka-12-times-on-march-15-general-staff

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1635725244852838400?cxt=HHwWgIC9mbPcobMtAAAA

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636256856795488258
The past 2 weeks Russia has been losing on average 1k a day not to mention the spike in tank and artillery losses.

[Woody]

LiveUAMap shows that Krasnohorivka is under Russian control and that fighting has reached the main road into Avdiivka.  If Ukraine cannot hold its position in  Stepove there might be an operational encirclement here as well.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrVWjvMXgAIJ8M4?format=jpg&name=small

Ukraine's press releases also mention that fighting has reached Stepove although they have beaten back the Russians there.
https://ukranews.com/en/news/921148-enemy-attacks-maryanka-12-times-on-march-15-general-staff

LiveUAMap is such a wonky and sloppy mess of a map. Very disappointing in comparison to the Syrian one.
Anyway, here is a better one (Vesele is marked as AFU, but it's actually Russian):
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1636269235180535809

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636256856795488258
The past 2 weeks Russia has been losing on average 1k a day not to mention the spike in tank and artillery losses.

In case you didn't know, those are cope numbers.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636291190109663233
https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636314620322250753
Ukraine seems to be overhyping how vaunted the T-90M is (for obvious propaganda/moral reasons) but even still Russia losing its best tanks because they incorrectly deploy them could be a key factor when Ukraine launches its counter offensive

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636256856795488258
The past 2 weeks Russia has been losing on average 1k a day not to mention the spike in tank and artillery losses.

In case you didn't know, those are cope numbers.

Even if you cut them in half (which, IMHO, based on visually confirmed losses, the intensity of the fighting, and studies of claimed vs confirmed losses from past wars, probably gets us close to the real figure), this is still devastating and unsustainable in the long term.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636291190109663233
https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636314620322250753
Ukraine seems to be overhyping how vaunted the T-90M is (for obvious propaganda/moral reasons) but even still Russia losing its best tanks because they incorrectly deploy them could be a key factor when Ukraine launches its counter offensive

It's worth noting that none of the T-90Ms I've seen near the frontline have had their most advertised feature, the Arena active protection system, equipped. This has, allegedly, been in service for years, so its absence is a mystery.

Perhaps they don't want to allow it to be seen to fail; perhaps it didn't really leave testing as claimed. The most likely explanation, to me, is that it was simply too expensive to install on a meaningful number of tanks, considering corruption, parts shortages, sanctions etc. If Russia changes that, this tank could be a different beast.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636256856795488258
The past 2 weeks Russia has been losing on average 1k a day not to mention the spike in tank and artillery losses.

In case you didn't know, those are cope numbers.

Even if you cut them in half (which, IMHO, based on visually confirmed losses, the intensity of the fighting, and studies of claimed vs confirmed losses from past wars, probably gets us close to the real figure), this is still devastating and unsustainable in the long term.

Thankfully I put the bootlicker on ignore so I didn’t see his response but unfortunately got to see it through you but to claim Ukraine is making up causality is kinda ironic as they’re estimates are conservative compared to western intelligence assessments of Russian causalities which they had at 200k back in January

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, that Russia is enduring major casualties in this conflict isn't exactly an outlandish claim.

Though the fact also remains they can afford to take significantly more losses than Ukraine.

[lfromnj]

FYI the main reason why Germany maintained superior casualty ratios well into 1944 was because the Soviets really struggled with artillery production

[Woody]

Update from previous post: Ukrainian commander of the 46th Airmobile Brigade was demoted after he talked to Washington Post about how grim the situation really is. Ukrainian war journalist, Yuri Butusov, even defended him for this. The now former commander "Kupol" handed a resignation letter after being demoted.

Please Zelensky stans, defend this:


https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/16/7393733/

Anatolii "Kupol" Kozel, was demoted from the post of combat battalion commander of the 46th Airmobile Brigade to deputy commander of the training centre battalion after a controversial interview with The Washington Post.

Source: sources of Ukrainska Pravda in the 46th brigade

Details: As sources of UP noted, the decision to demote Kupol was made by the commander of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Major General Maksym Myrhorodskyi.

In response to such a move, Kupol wrote a resignation letter.

Previous post about the interview:

Washington Post - Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

DNIPROPETROVSK REGION, Ukraine — The quality of Ukraine’s military force, once considered a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyiv’s readiness to mount a much-anticipated spring offensive.

“The most valuable thing in war is combat experience,” said a battalion commander in the 46th Air Assault Brigade, who is being identified only by his call sign, Kupol, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol. “A soldier who has survived six months of combat and a soldier who came from a firing range are two different soldiers. It’s heaven and earth.”

“And there are only a few soldiers with combat experience,” Kupol added. “Unfortunately, they are all already dead or wounded.”

Kupol said he was speaking out in hopes of securing better training for Ukrainian forces from Washington and that he hopes Ukrainian troops being held back for a coming counteroffensive will have more success than the inexperienced soldiers now manning the front under his command.

“There’s always belief in a miracle,” he said. “Either it will be a massacre and corpses or it’s going to be a professional counteroffensive. There are two options. There will be a counteroffensive either way.”

“If you have more resources, you more actively attack,” the senior official said. “If you have fewer resources, you defend more. We’re going to defend. That’s why if you ask me personally, I don’t believe in a big counteroffensive for us. I’d like to believe in it, but I’m looking at the resources and asking, ‘With what?’ Maybe we’ll have some localized breakthroughs.”

Kupol, who consented to having his photograph taken and said he understood he could face personal blowback for giving a frank assessment, described going to battle with newly drafted soldiers who had never thrown a grenade, who readily abandoned their positions under fire and who lacked confidence in handling firearms.

His unit withdrew from Soledar in eastern Ukraine in the winter after being surrounded by Russian forces who later captured the city. Kupol recalled how hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers in units fighting alongside his battalion simply abandoned their positions, even as fighters for Russia’s Wagner mercenary group pressed ahead.

After a year of war, Kupol, a lieutenant colonel, said his battalion is unrecognizable. Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops.

“I get 100 new soldiers,” Kupol said. “They don’t give me any time to prepare them. They say, ‘Take them into the battle.’ They just drop everything and run. That’s it. Do you understand why? Because the soldier doesn’t shoot. I ask him why, and he says, ‘I’m afraid of the sound of the shot.’ And for some reason, he has never thrown a grenade.

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64955537

"Bakhmut: Russian casualties mount but tactics evolve"

When I ask about Wagner's convict army, he pauses to think and says, "I'll be honest. It's genius. Cruel, immoral, but effective tactics. It worked out. And it's still working in Bakhmut."

[Mopsus]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636256856795488258
The past 2 weeks Russia has been losing on average 1k a day not to mention the spike in tank and artillery losses.

In case you didn't know, those are cope numbers.

Even if you cut them in half (which, IMHO, based on visually confirmed losses, the intensity of the fighting, and studies of claimed vs confirmed losses from past wars, probably gets us close to the real figure), this is still devastating and unsustainable in the long term.

Perhaps, but based on the best estimates, the Russians will finally encircle Bakhmut just fifteen short years from now, having lost more men than the US has lost in all of its armed conflicts combined, and how foolish will The West look then.

[Logical]

Poland will be sending 4 jets immediately and the rest as soon as they are ready. This is in addition to the 10 Migs Slovakia plans to send. https://twitter.com/AP/status/1636349281643757568

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yes, that Russia is enduring major casualties in this conflict isn't exactly an outlandish claim.

Though the fact also remains they can afford to take significantly more losses than Ukraine.

I’m not really sure if that’s true though. Russia can’t give the war the same total war effort that Ukraine can for various political and military reasons. On top of that a big issue these causalities can cause is that these mobilizations have been deliberately targeting people from poor regions in the Caucuses, Siberia, etc… The reasons for that is Putin doesn’t want to be drafting people who live in Moscow or St Petersburg or any other major cities or urban areas as these areas have more political and economic resources to organize protests against the regime and the war. They keep losing men like this and he’ll have to cross a dangerous personal red line and take drafting people from these places

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1636400010186178564

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636256856795488258
The past 2 weeks Russia has been losing on average 1k a day not to mention the spike in tank and artillery losses.

In case you didn't know, those are cope numbers.

Even if you cut them in half (which, IMHO, based on visually confirmed losses, the intensity of the fighting, and studies of claimed vs confirmed losses from past wars, probably gets us close to the real figure), this is still devastating and unsustainable in the long term.

Thankfully I put the bootlicker on ignore so I didn’t see his response but unfortunately got to see it through you but to claim Ukraine is making up causality is kinda ironic as they’re estimates are conservative compared to western intelligence assessments of Russian causalities which they had at 200k back in January

I've been operating under the impression that "liquidated" meant "killed in action", because if it means "casualties", then if anything it's probably an undercount, and I doubt they'd do that.

[Damocles]

A Ukrainian counteroffensive would likely involve an advance along the Orikhiv-Huliaipole-Velyka Novosilka-Vuhledar-Olenivka line.

Ukrainian armored and mechanized infantry units would advance southwards towards Melitopol, coordinating with local partisan units to dislodge Russian garrisons from the city. With Melitopol liberated and key road connections cut off from the Russians, some Ukrainian units would be tasked to establish a defense perimeter in Melitopol itself, while others would be directed eastwards, towards Berdiansk.

Ukrainian artillery would then bring up HIMARS 227mm, GLSDB, and other artillery systems along the northern shore of the Sea of Azov. These units would be tasked with constantly attacking the Kerch Strait Bridge, exhausting Russian air defense batteries' missiles, and preventing Russian logistical services from resupplying the garrisons in Crimea.

Other Ukrainian units would attempt to cross the Dnipro and take the strategic town of Nova Kakhova, with the principal objective of retaking the northern terminus of the North Crimean Canal. Engineering units would be present to rebuild the dams and water control structures, and deny the Russian garrisons in Crimea any adequate water supplies.

By this point, the better part of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts would be liberated, Russian garrisons in Crimea would be cut off from efficient reinforcement or resupply from the Russian mainland, and Ukrainian anti-air and anti-ship missiles could be brought up to deny the use of the air and water to Russian logistics.

Crimea itself could be placed under siege, and subjected to constant artillery bombardment coming from the Ukrainian side of the Syvash. Principal objectives would be to destroy weapons, ammunition, and refueling depots, hit the maintenance workshops for Russian truck convoys, and water purification and delivery infrastructure. Simultaneously, Ukraine could launch reconnaissance-by-force attacks, to test Russian forces' response capabilities and force them to waste ammunition on comparatively small numbers of infantry.

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1636393686308380674

[Hindsight was 2020]

Snip.

That seems to be the plan but the one thing I’m wondering is that similar to Kherson last year this offensive has been telegraphed so openly for Russia to prepare if Ukraine is actually planning to launch an offensive where Russia is weak like the Svatove-Kreminna line

[Antonio the Sixth]

Politico, citing US officials, says Ukraine has suffered ~100,000 KIA:

‘Ukraine doesn’t have any time to waste’: U.S. races to prepare Kyiv for spring offensive

Russia has spent months pummeling the country with missiles, seeking not only to cause destruction but also deplete Ukraine’s air defense stocks. Ukrainian soldiers have described acute shortages of basic ammunition, including mortar rounds and artillery shells. And upwards of 100,000 Ukrainian forces have died in the year-long war, U.S. officials estimate, including the most experienced soldiers.

I am skeptical of this figure, though I suppose maybe it makes sense if, while specific battles like Bakhmut and Vuledhar have been costly for Russia, Russia's superiority in stockpiles of artillery munitions has allowed them to inflict more favorable casualty ratios on the "quieter" parts of the front.

If that's true, it would mean the US estimates more Ukrainian casualties that Russian ones (I believe their figure for Russian death is around 60k?). This simply doesn't match the effective combat power we see on the ground, especially if you factor in Russia's advantage in equipment.

We really, badly need some neutral estimates of losses on both sides.

[jaichind]

https://flipboard.com/topic/ammunition/u-s-reaches-deep-into-its-global-ammunition-stockpiles-to-help-ukraine/a-peh9WEd8TM62NHZameJMJg%3Aa%3A248213600-d2647591da%2Fwsj.com

"U.S. Reaches Deep Into Its Global Ammunition Stockpiles to Help Ukraine"

kraine’s insatiable demand for artillery has for months outpaced Western forecasts, setting off a global hunt for more ammunition and forcing the U.S. to raid its stocks abroad to help Kyiv prepare for its counteroffensive later in the spring.

[Woody]

WOW. Even Andrew has stopped simping for Zelensky, gloves off:

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1636397877420343297?cxt=HHwWgoC-reLM07...
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1636398633191976962

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/ekat_kittycat/status/1636387110331748352?cxt=HHwWgMDQpYXazrU...
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1636391529878286341?cxt=HHwWisDTvaXb0LUtAA...