Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

"Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow"

[jaichind]

https://nypost.com/2023/03/13/ron-desantis-helping-ukraine-not-a-vital-us-strategic-interest/

"Ron DeSantis says helping Ukraine fend off Russia not a vital US interest"

DeSantis's position on the war seems pretty similar to Trump

[Woody]

Zelensky was here in December awarding medals. Wagner has taken complete control over this industrial complex as of today. Also advanced in the south, towards Korsunskoho street. Soon cutting off the road to Ivanivske from the city. Again greatly complicating the AFU fighters deep in the city from withdrawing.

I think it's way past too late already for an orderly retreat. Some unfortunate Ukrainians are going to be left behind whatever happens next.

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1635563215114436613?cxt=HHwWioC8yYOF2LItA...

[Woody]

A little over 3km window from each pincer meeting one another. In comparison, Lysychansk was around 13km before the AFU fully withdrew from the city.

The map:

https://twitter.com/TWWTweeter/status/1635469360406962176

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/georgias-pm-calls-ukraines-zelenskiy-not-interfere-georgia-affairs-2023-03-13/

"Georgian PM tells Ukraine's Zelenskiy not to meddle in his country"

[Woody]

Washington Post - Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

DNIPROPETROVSK REGION, Ukraine — The quality of Ukraine’s military force, once considered a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyiv’s readiness to mount a much-anticipated spring offensive.

“The most valuable thing in war is combat experience,” said a battalion commander in the 46th Air Assault Brigade, who is being identified only by his call sign, Kupol, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol. “A soldier who has survived six months of combat and a soldier who came from a firing range are two different soldiers. It’s heaven and earth.”

“And there are only a few soldiers with combat experience,” Kupol added. “Unfortunately, they are all already dead or wounded.”

Kupol said he was speaking out in hopes of securing better training for Ukrainian forces from Washington and that he hopes Ukrainian troops being held back for a coming counteroffensive will have more success than the inexperienced soldiers now manning the front under his command.

“There’s always belief in a miracle,” he said. “Either it will be a massacre and corpses or it’s going to be a professional counteroffensive. There are two options. There will be a counteroffensive either way.”

“If you have more resources, you more actively attack,” the senior official said. “If you have fewer resources, you defend more. We’re going to defend. That’s why if you ask me personally, I don’t believe in a big counteroffensive for us. I’d like to believe in it, but I’m looking at the resources and asking, ‘With what?’ Maybe we’ll have some localized breakthroughs.”

Kupol, who consented to having his photograph taken and said he understood he could face personal blowback for giving a frank assessment, described going to battle with newly drafted soldiers who had never thrown a grenade, who readily abandoned their positions under fire and who lacked confidence in handling firearms.

His unit withdrew from Soledar in eastern Ukraine in the winter after being surrounded by Russian forces who later captured the city. Kupol recalled how hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers in units fighting alongside his battalion simply abandoned their positions, even as fighters for Russia’s Wagner mercenary group pressed ahead.

After a year of war, Kupol, a lieutenant colonel, said his battalion is unrecognizable. Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops.

“I get 100 new soldiers,” Kupol said. “They don’t give me any time to prepare them. They say, ‘Take them into the battle.’ They just drop everything and run. That’s it. Do you understand why? Because the soldier doesn’t shoot. I ask him why, and he says, ‘I’m afraid of the sound of the shot.’ And for some reason, he has never thrown a grenade.

[jaichind]

Other WPT article quotes

U.S. and European officials have estimated that as many as 120,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the start of Russia's invasion early last year, compared with about 200,000 on the Russian side, which has a much larger military and roughly triple the population from which to draw conscripts. Ukraine keeps its running casualty numbers secret, even from its staunchest Western supporters.

Meanwhile, a Russian offensive has been building since early January, according to Syrsky. Budanov, Ukraine's military intelligence chief, told The Post last month that Russia had more than 325,000 soldiers in Ukraine, and another 150,000 mobilized troops could soon join the fight. Ukrainian soldiers report being outnumbered and having less ammunition.

The 325K size Russia force in Ukraine is a surprise for me but I guess that means some of the mobilized men are now in Ukraine.  The question is what are they up to since they are not showing up in any of the combat. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Washington Post - Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

DNIPROPETROVSK REGION, Ukraine — The quality of Ukraine’s military force, once considered a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyiv’s readiness to mount a much-anticipated spring offensive.

“The most valuable thing in war is combat experience,” said a battalion commander in the 46th Air Assault Brigade, who is being identified only by his call sign, Kupol, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol. “A soldier who has survived six months of combat and a soldier who came from a firing range are two different soldiers. It’s heaven and earth.”

“And there are only a few soldiers with combat experience,” Kupol added. “Unfortunately, they are all already dead or wounded.”

Kupol said he was speaking out in hopes of securing better training for Ukrainian forces from Washington and that he hopes Ukrainian troops being held back for a coming counteroffensive will have more success than the inexperienced soldiers now manning the front under his command.

“There’s always belief in a miracle,” he said. “Either it will be a massacre and corpses or it’s going to be a professional counteroffensive. There are two options. There will be a counteroffensive either way.”

“If you have more resources, you more actively attack,” the senior official said. “If you have fewer resources, you defend more. We’re going to defend. That’s why if you ask me personally, I don’t believe in a big counteroffensive for us. I’d like to believe in it, but I’m looking at the resources and asking, ‘With what?’ Maybe we’ll have some localized breakthroughs.”

Kupol, who consented to having his photograph taken and said he understood he could face personal blowback for giving a frank assessment, described going to battle with newly drafted soldiers who had never thrown a grenade, who readily abandoned their positions under fire and who lacked confidence in handling firearms.

His unit withdrew from Soledar in eastern Ukraine in the winter after being surrounded by Russian forces who later captured the city. Kupol recalled how hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers in units fighting alongside his battalion simply abandoned their positions, even as fighters for Russia’s Wagner mercenary group pressed ahead.

After a year of war, Kupol, a lieutenant colonel, said his battalion is unrecognizable. Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops.

“I get 100 new soldiers,” Kupol said. “They don’t give me any time to prepare them. They say, ‘Take them into the battle.’ They just drop everything and run. That’s it. Do you understand why? Because the soldier doesn’t shoot. I ask him why, and he says, ‘I’m afraid of the sound of the shot.’ And for some reason, he has never thrown a grenade.

Makes sense churn would hit both Russia and Ukraine hard as they both lose their most seasoned men. On the flipside, a battle like this is the quickest and easiest way to get experienced and seasoned...if you can make it.

[Torie]

Stories like the one above make me depressed that the US did not give Ukraine more effective weapons in greater quantities sooner. The preference for not wanting to seem too provocative and perhaps to keep the twin weak sisters, Germany and France, in sync, in exchange for a much higher Ukrainian body count, is  not the choice that I would have made.

[CumbrianLefty]

EVERY POST IN THIS THREAD:

Woodbury: posts tweets that show Ukraine is in a bad state
Jaichind: posts some random economic figures that mean nothing
RedVelvet: mentions how one of the random economic figures means the """GLOBAL SOUTH""" is turning on the West
TimTurner: post tweet about something nice the Russians did or does a 'both sides bad' equivocation

This thread has just turned into a circle jerk between these four clowns who get off on the scene in The Man In The High Castle where they blow up the Statue of Liberty.

Hollywood will be upset you forgot to mention them, they try hard enough after all

[Antonio the Sixth]

EVERY POST IN THIS THREAD:

Woodbury: posts tweets that show Ukraine is in a bad state
Jaichind: posts some random economic figures that mean nothing
RedVelvet: mentions how one of the random economic figures means the """GLOBAL SOUTH""" is turning on the West
TimTurner: post tweet about something nice the Russians did or does a 'both sides bad' equivocation

This thread has just turned into a circle jerk between these four clowns who get off on the scene in The Man In The High Castle where they blow up the Statue of Liberty.

would you prefer a one sided pro ukraine narrative? whether you agree with those posters or not they provide an idealogical counterpoint that is quite present in the world but underrepresented in the english speaking internet

If by “ideological counterpoint” you mean “tiresome, repetitive, and uninteresting nonsense” then sure

The idea that any perspective that dissents from the consensus is inherently valuable to public discourse is one of the most idiotic and perverse legacies of liberalism. It's easily contradicted by everyday experience, and especially nowadays when the internet makes everyone's hot takes easily accessible to everyone else and we can plainly see that most of them are worthless crap. Thanks John Stuart Mill, I guess!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

EVERY POST IN THIS THREAD:

Woodbury: posts tweets that show Ukraine is in a bad state
Jaichind: posts some random economic figures that mean nothing
RedVelvet: mentions how one of the random economic figures means the """GLOBAL SOUTH""" is turning on the West
TimTurner: post tweet about something nice the Russians did or does a 'both sides bad' equivocation

This thread has just turned into a circle jerk between these four clowns who get off on the scene in The Man In The High Castle where they blow up the Statue of Liberty.

would you prefer a one sided pro ukraine narrative? whether you agree with those posters or not they provide an idealogical counterpoint that is quite present in the world but underrepresented in the english speaking internet

If by “ideological counterpoint” you mean “tiresome, repetitive, and uninteresting nonsense” then sure

The idea that any perspective that dissents from the consensus is inherently valuable to public discourse is one of the most idiotic and perverse legacies of liberalism. It's easily contradicted by everyday experience, and especially nowadays when the internet makes everyone's hot takes easily accessible to everyone else and we can plainly see that most of them are worthless crap. Thanks John Stuart Mill, I guess!

It's inherently valuable to public discourse if the general will is connected enough to reality to be able to tell when bad ideas have been refuted, which is not the case in the Western world right now.

[Woody]

$32 million drone.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1635682044318457856?cxt=HHwWgICxkeaJjrMtA...
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1635685523162267648
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1635681468730028040
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1635681096028368904

[Woody]

A Russian SU-27 apparently rammed the drone down to international waters. ngl that's pretty badass:

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1635684832297594889?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...
https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1635685121876434944

[It’s so Joever]

You wanna f**k with us? We will show this miserable country a type of winter that not even the Russians can survive.

I don’t endorse war. But the Kremlin does, so let’s give them what they want.

[Horus]

You wanna f**k with us? We will show this miserable country a type of winter that not even the Russians can survive.

I don’t endorse war. But the Kremlin does, so let’s give them what they want.

So we end the world over one drone? Sorry but I like living.

[AndyHogan14]

You wanna f**k with us? We will show this miserable country a type of winter that not even the Russians can survive.

I don’t endorse war. But the Kremlin does, so let’s give them what they want.

So we end the world over one drone? Sorry but I like living.

Imagine thinking that the US getting more directly involved would lead to the end of the world. The Muscovites would retreat and then bitch and complain about the evil west (like the cowards that they are).

[Horus]

You wanna f**k with us? We will show this miserable country a type of winter that not even the Russians can survive.

I don’t endorse war. But the Kremlin does, so let’s give them what they want.

So we end the world over one drone? Sorry but I like living.

Imagine thinking that the US getting more directly involved would lead to the end of the world. The Muscovites would retreat and then bitch and complain about the evil west (like the cowards that they are).

I mean there's a pretty big gap between "getting more directly involved" and "let's show this miserable country a nuclear winter."

Either way direct conflict with Russia would be absolutely moronic. Thankfully with Biden at the helm it will never happen.

[Logical]

There will be lots of awful hot takes on the internet but what the USA always does in cases of provocation is to show up with overwhelming force. Expect a squadron of F-22s or F-35s to fly around the Black Sea soon.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If - if - the collision itself was deliberate rather than an accidental ending of an attempt to follow/troll the drone, it's probably not a scalable attack, assuming it's a Russian govt.-backed initiative rather than two pilots going beyond the call.

I haven't heard of a jet designed to ram things; it probably isn't wise to risk expensive planes and their in-demand pilots against drones which aren't Ukrainian. The US statement claims at least one of the planes was almost lost, and it seems plausible they were at least somewhat damaged in the collision.

The drone itself has been shot down before by state and non-state actors and its technology, if recovered by Russia, is not particularly secret (it's already been busted open by Iran and others). Nobody died, fortunately.

The incident is definitely worth posting about, but I'm not sure it's as significant as the initial story made it out to be.

[jaichind]

There will be lots of awful hot takes on the internet but what the USA always does in cases of provocation is to show up with overwhelming force. Expect a squadron of F-22s or F-35s to fly around the Black Sea soon.

Is that true.  After the 2001 Hainan Island incident both the PRC and USA reduced surveillance in the area to de-escalate.  Eventually by 2011 both went up to what it was before 2001.

[Woody]

Shocking if true: Pervomaiske to Avdiivka/Donetsk City's west might have fallen. (I am a little skeptical of this tbh)

This settlement was totally under my radar. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Netailove was assaulted, which either means Russia bypassed Pervomaiske from Vodyane.. or it fell. I think we're starting to see small cracks here and there on the front, but by no means a collapse of the Ukrainian lines or cause of panic.

Andrew has very good sources with guys on the ground there:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1635665991102234626?cxt=HHwWhIC...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Uh, no, we probably shouldn't be threatening nuclear war for a drone. Get f**king real for a second.

Now, if this convinced the US to set up a no-fly-zone (even a limited one) that would be great, but I doubt Biden would even be willing to go as far. Tbh we still don't know if it was deliberate (what does Russia actually gain from this?) so it's probably better to wait and gather more information. And even if it's deliberate, TAU is right that this isn't worth panicking about. If Russia starts downing US drones as a policy, now we'll need some kind of response, but what response is up to Biden.

[Virginiá]

Stories like the one above make me depressed that the US did not give Ukraine more effective weapons in greater quantities sooner. The preference for not wanting to seem too provocative and perhaps to keep the twin weak sisters, Germany and France, in sync, in exchange for a much higher Ukrainian body count, is  not the choice that I would have made.

Honestly I think they should have last fall, and I've seen some theories that US officials feel like they missed an opportunity for Ukraine to make more progress back then, but to go back even earlier, I can understand why things played out the way they did. NATO/US simply didn't know how the war would play out and how much support they were able or willing to give. A lot of countries have gone way outside their comfort zones on this, so it's not surprising it took time to build up to it. Obviously I wish it all happened much sooner, but that isn't taking into consideration the political realities at play.