Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Not a great day to be a collaborator:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1635718599632355335?s=20

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1635647050321723393?s=20

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

A Russian SU-27 apparently rammed the drone down to international waters. ngl that's pretty badass:

No, it was a pro-Russian group controlled SU-27

This equivocation and post is so dumb that it apparently brought compucomp out of retirement:

[It’s so Joever]

You wanna f**k with us? We will show this miserable country a type of winter that not even the Russians can survive.

I don’t endorse war. But the Kremlin does, so let’s give them what they want.

So we end the world over one drone? Sorry but I like living.

Technically just a lot of the world. Anyways it’s worth it out of spite. And we need to signal to the Kremlin hat we are more insane than they are.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

You wanna f**k with us? We will show this miserable country a type of winter that not even the Russians can survive.

I don’t endorse war. But the Kremlin does, so let’s give them what they want.

So we end the world over one drone? Sorry but I like living.

Technically just a lot of the world. Anyways it’s worth it out of spite. And we need to signal to the Kremlin hat we are more insane than they are.

Madman theory worked for Nixon because he really was unstable. Biden wouldn't get the same results.

[It’s so Joever]

You wanna f**k with us? We will show this miserable country a type of winter that not even the Russians can survive.

I don’t endorse war. But the Kremlin does, so let’s give them what they want.

So we end the world over one drone? Sorry but I like living.

Technically just a lot of the world. Anyways it’s worth it out of spite. And we need to signal to the Kremlin hat we are more insane than they are.

Madman theory worked for Nixon because he really was unstable. Biden wouldn't get the same results.

It’s worth a shot. Either way Russia needs to at least be given a strong signal. No wavering, this is also to show China and any other potential geopolitical rivals the awful country they are dealing with.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

You wanna f**k with us? We will show this miserable country a type of winter that not even the Russians can survive.

I don’t endorse war. But the Kremlin does, so let’s give them what they want.

So we end the world over one drone? Sorry but I like living.

Technically just a lot of the world. Anyways it’s worth it out of spite. And we need to signal to the Kremlin hat we are more insane than they are.

Madman theory worked for Nixon because he really was unstable. Biden wouldn't get the same results.

Biden has no appetite to do it w.r.t. Russia/Ukraine (and has repeatedly demonstrated this), but he achieved a lot of strategic ambiguity over China/Taiwan by frequently contradicting his team with statements more hawkish than theirs. "Madman theory" might not work for him but Oldman theory can, when he wants it to. Whether playing into the Sleepy Joe bit is a good idea is another matter.

[Woody]

DeepstateMAP updated it's lines now. Confirmation Zaliznyanske has fallen to Wagner/Russian Army, another settlement along the Sloviansk-Bakhmut road. If and when Min'kivka falls, they will be within 20 kilometers of both Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

https://deepstatemap.live/

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1635773110405451777

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1635666973546692608?s=20

[Woody]

Earlier had a post about the possibility if Pervomaiske fell due to Russians attacking Netailove.. or they bypassed to the north of the settlement from Vodyane. Pervomaiske still is controlled by the AFU it seems:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1635751419281113094?cxt=HHwWjIC88fnPrbMtA...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Madman theory never actually "worked". Nixon's Vietnam policy was an embarrassing failure and the indiscriminate bombings achieved nothing tangible except making the US' image even worse than it already was. Nixon's foreign policy successes came from his more cautious and pragmatic moves, not from his posturing as a warmonger.

Similarly, Putin has arguably been operating under a madman approach to his foreign policy (either on purpose or because he's actually lost his grip on reality, that will be for future historians to decide) and it's been a catastrophe for Russia's strategic position in the world. "Rational irrationality" has always been and remains a fantasy, and I'm glad the US has a president who doesn't believe this crap.

[Storr]

Google translate gives us "...draft law on civil partnerships for same-sex and opposite-sex couples...".

Assuming "civil partnerships" is the legal equivalent of civil unions, this would put Ukraine on the same level of same-sex relationship legal recognition as Italy, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Croatia, Montenegro, Greece, and Cyprus. Ukraine currently has no legal recognition of same sex relationships.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1635397469281611776?s=20

[Middle-aged Europe]

Google translate gives us "...draft law on civil partnerships for same-sex and opposite-sex couples...".

Assuming "civil partnerships" is the legal equivalent of civil unions, this would put Ukraine on the same level of same-sex relationship legal recognition as Italy, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Croatia, Montenegro, Greece, and Cyprus. Ukraine currently has no legal recognition of same sex relationships.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1635397469281611776?s=20

Thanks, Putin.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1635785263438868482

[jaichind]

https://tass.com/defense/1588735

"US drone violates boundaries of airspace regime established for special operation"

The Russian position is

"The drone flew with its transponders off, violating the boundaries of the temporary airspace regime established for the special military operation, communicated to all users of international airspace, and published in accordance with international standards."

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Google translate gives us "...draft law on civil partnerships for same-sex and opposite-sex couples...".

Assuming "civil partnerships" is the legal equivalent of civil unions, this would put Ukraine on the same level of same-sex relationship legal recognition as Italy, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Croatia, Montenegro, Greece, and Cyprus. Ukraine currently has no legal recognition of same sex relationships.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1635397469281611776?s=20

If there's one thing that should foster Ukrainian sympathy for a bill like this and a change in how they view LGBTQ+ people it's the numerous Queer Ukrainians who have taken up arms themselves or even with their partners in the defense of their homeland, families and friends.

God speed towards a better future, Ukraine! Russia is not the future but the dying breath of an autocratic, repressive past.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1635666973546692608?s=20

To be fair, time and age are a social construct in Russia. That's why Bakhmut has been "falling any day now" for the past couple months.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1635666973546692608?s=20

To be fair, time and age are a social construct in Russia. That's why Bakhmut has been "falling any day now" for the past couple months.

Lol.
That's a wonderful joke.

[CanadianDemocrat]

You wanna f**k with us? We will show this miserable country a type of winter that not even the Russians can survive.

I don’t endorse war. But the Kremlin does, so let’s give them what they want.

So we end the world over one drone? Sorry but I like living.

Imagine thinking that the US getting more directly involved would lead to the end of the world. The Muscovites would retreat and then bitch and complain about the evil west (like the cowards that they are).

Due to the genocidal war crimes Russia has committed, the West should not just protest but should send long range missiles,  200-300 F-16 fighter jets and 200-300 Leopard 2 tanks. That is the only way to stop the Russian genocidal aggression against Ukraine. Putin is a thug who only understands strength.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1635785263438868482

I guess we shall see soon enough if this is mere bluffing.

[Woody]

Zaliznianske taken. Southwest (urban) Bakhmut is collapsing a bit, small pocket is developing there, on it's three sides. Half of Korsunskogo street is physically inaccessible to use for the Ivanivske route.

If the intersection to the north (Chajkovsogo St. only a few hundred meters from Wagner positions) falls, supplying the rest of the city/withdrawal will be even more considerably hard than it already is, if not impossible. So if Zelensky's words about defending and still keeping Bakhmut are true, they're really going to have to do a large counter attack against both pincers soon.

For the record this the most insane and suicidal thing I have ever seen the AFU command do, and they have been really smart for the most part up to this point.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1635912901927075841?cxt=HHwWgoC8rb...

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1635666544964280321
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1635670217819844609
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1635676249094860810
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1635668027894104065

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1635666544964280321
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1635670217819844609
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1635676249094860810
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1635668027894104065

I wonder, when the history books are written about this war in the coming decades, what will be called the biggest mistakes by UA and RU high command, respectively.
We can't guess with complete confidence, but it might be fun to speculate.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1635293968396349440

Kyiv hopes for a breakthrough as Western weapons pour in, but the battle over Bakhmut might sap its reserves

Bled by the monthslong defense of the eastern city of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian military is training tens of thousands of fresh troops, including in camps operated abroad by the U.S. and European allies, for three new army corps expected to take part in the spring advances.

Kyiv is also receiving a large influx of Western-made heavy weapons, including Leopard 2 tanks, Bradley and Stryker fighting vehicles and Paladin and Archer self-propelled howitzers, replenishing the equipment it lost over a year that saw the most intense fighting in Europe since World War II. It is the first time Ukraine is deploying such Western-made tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to the battlefield.

Ukraine is feeling growing pressure to show results on the battlefield, as Russia girds for a long war and President Vladimir Putin bets that Western willingness to provide military and financial support to Kyiv won’t endure.

While Ukrainian leaders seek to expel Russia by force from all the territories it occupies, they also understand that the success—or failure—of the coming offensive will determine Kyiv’s hand in any negotiations that may be eventually imposed by Ukraine’s Western partners. “To be strong in any talks, Ukraine must be strong on the battlefield. That’s the way to just peace,” Mr. Zelensky said last month. “Let’s de-occupy the maximum of what we can.”

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1635970991674343425

[Woody]

The Khromove - Bakhmut road is so dangerous and compromised that even RPGs are in range. Disabled a Ukrainian BTR-4E:

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1635954383979462657
https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1635964519129251840