Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Dereich]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1619666237860229121?cxt=HHwWgsDRpZX3mvosAAA...

Happy Mid-February!

[Virginiá]

“A disastrous Russian assault on Vuhledar, viewed as an opening move in an expected spring offensive, has renewed doubts about Moscow’s ability to sustain a large-scale ground assault.”

'A Russian marine who fought in Vuhledar told the Russian media outlet 7x7, which is based in the Komi region of Russia, that those who survived the battle were considered deserters. The marine, whose identity the news outlet did not disclose, citing the need to protect his safety, said he was part of the third company of the 155th brigade. After the failed assault, he said, only eight soldiers from his company were left alive.

Fits pretty well with predictions that the huge surge in poorly trained mobiks would help stabilize defensive lines but would largely do nothing for Russian offensive capabilities, if not hurt it, due to poor tactics causing even more unsustainable losses.

The problem for Russia is that even its professional forces at the beginning of war lacked the level of competency they needed to succeed, yet had success anyway because of an undermanned and under-equipped Ukrainian military that was somewhat unprepared to defend against that kind of invasion. So one might say that even if Russia committed itself to training a new wave of mobiks for far longer, and far more comprehensively, it won't provide the results they need, in part because they already sent many of their trainers into the slaughter, but also because their training capabilities weren't exactly top-notch even at their peak.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Bumping, two weeks later. Bakhmut STILL hasn't fallen yet.

The Battle of Stalingrad lasted 5 months, the Battle of Verdun lasted 10 months. The Battle of Bakhmut has gone on for 6 months.

With all the wiped out Russian equipment and manpower destroyed in Bakhmut. Ukraine is going to launch a counteroffensive in the spring to liberate Melitopol and the land bridge to Crimea.

Quoting for posterity.

It is certainly a bold prediction. Let's see where things stand when the time comes.

It seems less likely than not, but at one point it was also considered a "bold" prediction to say that Ukraine would last longer than four days after the Russian invasion began.

Of course, there are things that change the ballgame. US intelligence assistance stopped Russia from taking Kiev and thus stopped Ukraine from losing early.
It seems we are reaching a point where now both sides have the relative strength needed to weather a long-term stalemate. As you noted, Ukraine taking the land bridge can still possibly happen.
If Ukraine's offensive is doing as well as the Ukrainian funeral business, it certainly can.
We just shouldn't assume that the side we support will win, or take what any side says uncritically. Exaggerating casualty counts and various equally truthful things have been a thing since time immemorial, and "fog of war" exists as a phrase for a very good reason.

[Woody]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1619666237860229121?cxt=HHwWgsDRpZX3mvosAAAA

Happy Mid-February!

This isn't an own man. If you watch my later posts I predicted that Bakhmut might fall around mid to late February. Possibly extended to next month if AFU does small counter-attacks to the south of Ivanivske (Which I successfully predicted would happen).

Either way you realize that there is no strategic point to hold Bakhmut anymore (Except losing Siversk) for the Ukrainians. At this point it's politics the only reason they keep reinforcing this cluster of a city. You don't look a map and think this is an adventageous position to hold:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor4/status/1626255805694758912

[Hindsight was 2020]

Apparently a couple of articles and rumblings from telegram from Russian intel sources that Ukraine has successfully conscripted the Ukrainian army to the size of 1.3 million and that Ukraine offensive might be towards Crimea which is under defended
https://mobile.twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1626246471820484609

[Dereich]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1619666237860229121?cxt=HHwWgsDRpZX3mvosAAAA

Happy Mid-February!

This isn't an own man. If you watch my later posts I predicted that Bakhmut might fall around mid to late February. Possibly extended to next month if AFU does small counter-attacks to the south of Ivanivske (Which I successfully predicted would happen).

Either way you realize that there is no strategic point to hold Bakhmut anymore (Except losing Siversk) for the Ukrainians. At this point it's politics the only reason they keep reinforcing this cluster of a city. You don't look a map and think this is an adventageous position to hold:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor4/status/1626255805694758912

You can be mad all you want that the Russian army consistently underperforms your publicly shared expectations, the fact remains that you continue to crowd this thread with your overly rosy predictions for Russian military success only to have to continually revise them without admitting that you have been wrong. 

As for the actual strategic value of the city, I don't know enough to say you're right. It could be like Stalingrad in that regardless of whatever greater strategic value the city holds, the real importance of it is in how much the invader seems to care about taking it. Clearly the Russians will waste as many lives to capture the city as it takes, so if the Ukrainians think they benefit from keeping that battle ongoing I say more power to them.

[Mopsus]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1619666237860229121?cxt=HHwWgsDRpZX3mvosAAAA

Happy Mid-February!

This isn't an own man. If you watch my later posts I predicted that Bakhmut might fall around mid to late February. Possibly extended to next month if AFU does small counter-attacks to the south of Ivanivske (Which I successfully predicted would happen).

“This isn’t an own man. If you read my posts carefully you’ll notice that I predicted that this thing would happen, but I also successfully predicted that it might not happen, because I am a genius.”

[Hindsight was 2020]

From what I have been reading recently from pro-Ukrainian spheres the reason Ukraine is staying in Bakmut is they keep enjoying a 4-1 to even 6-1 (in some attacks) kill ratio against the Russian and feel the longer they stay the more they will bleed the Russians of manpower and resources that will hurt any Russian offensive this spring and help with Ukraine’s spring offensive

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/02/16/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates/11270950002/

Western experts say recent modest Russian gains have come at a high cost. The Russian death toll in Ukraine has reached 140,460 since the beginning of its full-scale invasion a year ago, the General Staff of Ukraine’s military estimated Thursday.

Ukrainian data shows more than 800 Russian soldiers a day died in February, a figure Britain's Ministry of Defense called "likely accurate."

[Storr]

Lukashenko says he's ready to provide his country's territory for another invasion of Ukraine this time together with the Russians, "but only if anyone, even one soldier, comes to our land from Ukraine to kill our people".

In a follow up question he was asked why he allowed Russia to invade Ukraine from Belarus last year, when there was no threat from Ukraine to his country. Lukashenko responded "You don't know the situation very well. The USA and western Europe pushed Ukraine into this war. Well they got the war they wanted!"

Luka offers to host negotiations in Minsk next week between Putin and Biden while the latter visits Poland. I'm not sure why Biden would be negotiating on behalf of Ukraine, but I've heard Minsk is nice this time of year.

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1626271384618913795?s=20

[AndyHogan14]

Apparently a couple of articles and rumblings from telegram from Russian intel sources that Ukraine has successfully conscripted the Ukrainian army to the size of 1.3 million and that Ukraine offensive might be towards Crimea which is under defended
https://mobile.twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1626246471820484609

I have long said that if Ukraine goes after pre-February 24 territory (if they cut the land bridge of course) it would be Crimea. If the Ukrainians are able to, at the very least, establish a "beach head" on the Crimean Peninsula, that would most likely lead to the downfall of Putin.

[Storr]

Apparently a couple of articles and rumblings from telegram from Russian intel sources that Ukraine has successfully conscripted the Ukrainian army to the size of 1.3 million and that Ukraine offensive might be towards Crimea which is under defended
https://mobile.twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1626246471820484609

I have long said that if Ukraine goes after pre-February 24 territory (if they cut the land bridge of course) it would be Crimea. If the Ukrainians are able to, at the very least, establish a "beach head" on the Crimean Peninsula, that would most likely lead to the downfall of Putin.

I agree, as much of the pre-Feb 24 occupied territory in the Donbass is densely populated areas (Donetsk, Luhansk, Makiivka, Horlivka, Alchevsk), which means retaking those areas would require difficult and costly urban combat.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1626293515373387776?s=20

[Woody]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1619666237860229121?cxt=HHwWgsDRpZX3mvosAAAA

Happy Mid-February!

This isn't an own man. If you watch my later posts I predicted that Bakhmut might fall around mid to late February. Possibly extended to next month if AFU does small counter-attacks to the south of Ivanivske (Which I successfully predicted would happen).

Either way you realize that there is no strategic point to hold Bakhmut anymore (Except losing Siversk) for the Ukrainians. At this point it's politics the only reason they keep reinforcing this cluster of a city. You don't look a map and think this is an adventageous position to hold:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor4/status/1626255805694758912

You can be mad all you want that the Russian army consistently underperforms your publicly shared expectations, the fact remains that you continue to crowd this thread with your overly rosy predictions for Russian military success only to have to continually revise them without admitting that you have been wrong.  

As for the actual strategic value of the city, I don't know enough to say you're right. It could be like Stalingrad in that regardless of whatever greater strategic value the city holds, the real importance of it is in how much the invader seems to care about taking it. Clearly the Russians will waste as many lives to capture the city as it takes, so if the Ukrainians think they benefit from keeping that battle ongoing I say more power to them.

I don't get why you're being hostile. Also, you don't have to lie, I haven't crowded this thread with predictions about anything (maybe a little of Kharkiv back in Sept.), except recently about Bakhmut (Which is an obvious call, it is going to fall that's a fact, in days or weeks is something we can discuss) - also Russians probably taking everything east of Zherebets river, that's a realistic expectation during these recent course of events.

My posting history is OSINT accounts/Geo locations, or Ukrainian Telegrams about the frontlines. Which is the most important part of the war. That's not me making predictions, it doesn't mean I am sucking Putin's cock or taking sides. It's just that reality is hinging on Russia's favor, that's something everyone has to acknowledge making forward.

Also, if you have to know, I have followed this ever since 2014. This conflict has more factors than just Russia vs Ukraine - whatever we disagree on, I think we all agree the course of action Putin went for in Feb. 24th was the wrong way. So that's why I believe Ukraine has the right to fight for emancipation.

[windjammer]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1619666237860229121?cxt=HHwWgsDRpZX3mvosAAAA

Happy Mid-February!

This isn't an own man. If you watch my later posts I predicted that Bakhmut might fall around mid to late February. Possibly extended to next month if AFU does small counter-attacks to the south of Ivanivske (Which I successfully predicted would happen).

Either way you realize that there is no strategic point to hold Bakhmut anymore (Except losing Siversk) for the Ukrainians. At this point it's politics the only reason they keep reinforcing this cluster of a city. You don't look a map and think this is an adventageous position to hold:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor4/status/1626255805694758912

You can be mad all you want that the Russian army consistently underperforms your publicly shared expectations, the fact remains that you continue to crowd this thread with your overly rosy predictions for Russian military success only to have to continually revise them without admitting that you have been wrong.  

As for the actual strategic value of the city, I don't know enough to say you're right. It could be like Stalingrad in that regardless of whatever greater strategic value the city holds, the real importance of it is in how much the invader seems to care about taking it. Clearly the Russians will waste as many lives to capture the city as it takes, so if the Ukrainians think they benefit from keeping that battle ongoing I say more power to them.

I don't get why you're being hostile. Also, you don't have to lie, I haven't crowded this thread with predictions about anything (maybe a little of Kharkiv back in Sept.), except recently about Bakhmut (Which is an obvious call, it is going to fall that's a fact, in days or weeks is something we can discuss) - also Russians probably taking everything east of Zherebets river, that's a realistic expectation during these recent course of events.

My posting history is OSINT accounts/Geo locations, or Ukrainian Telegrams about the frontlines. Which is the most important part of the war. That's not me making predictions, it doesn't mean I am sucking Putin's cock or taking sides. It's just that reality is hinging on Russia's favor, that's something everyone has to acknowledge making forward.

Also, if you have to know, I have followed this ever since 2014. This conflict has more factors than just Russia vs Ukraine - whatever we disagree on, I think we all agree the course of action Putin went for in Feb. 24th was the wrong way. So that's why I believe Ukraine has the right to fight for emancipation.

Oh come on,
Just be honest with yourself. You definitely want Russia to win.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1619666237860229121?cxt=HHwWgsDRpZX3mvosAAAA

Happy Mid-February!

This isn't an own man. If you watch my later posts I predicted that Bakhmut might fall around mid to late February. Possibly extended to next month if AFU does small counter-attacks to the south of Ivanivske (Which I successfully predicted would happen).

Either way you realize that there is no strategic point to hold Bakhmut anymore (Except losing Siversk) for the Ukrainians. At this point it's politics the only reason they keep reinforcing this cluster of a city. You don't look a map and think this is an adventageous position to hold:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor4/status/1626255805694758912

You can be mad all you want that the Russian army consistently underperforms your publicly shared expectations, the fact remains that you continue to crowd this thread with your overly rosy predictions for Russian military success only to have to continually revise them without admitting that you have been wrong.  

As for the actual strategic value of the city, I don't know enough to say you're right. It could be like Stalingrad in that regardless of whatever greater strategic value the city holds, the real importance of it is in how much the invader seems to care about taking it. Clearly the Russians will waste as many lives to capture the city as it takes, so if the Ukrainians think they benefit from keeping that battle ongoing I say more power to them.

I don't get why you're being hostile. Also, you don't have to lie, I haven't crowded this thread with predictions about anything (maybe a little of Kharkiv back in Sept.), except recently about Bakhmut (Which is an obvious call, it is going to fall that's a fact, in days or weeks is something we can discuss) - also Russians probably taking everything east of Zherebets river, that's a realistic expectation during these recent course of events.

My posting history is OSINT accounts/Geo locations, or Ukrainian Telegrams about the frontlines. Which is the most important part of the war. That's not me making predictions, it doesn't mean I am sucking Putin's cock or taking sides. It's just that reality is hinging on Russia's favor, that's something everyone has to acknowledge making forward.

Also, if you have to know, I have followed this ever since 2014. This conflict has more factors than just Russia vs Ukraine - whatever we disagree on, I think we all agree the course of action Putin went for in Feb. 24th was the wrong way. So that's why I believe Ukraine has the right to fight for emancipation.

Oh come on,
Just be honest with yourself. You definitely want Russia to win.

Maybe in the hysteria-driven mindset in which people see SirWoodbury, sure.
No, you cannot tell the side someone is on just because of the shibboleths they do and don't say. To assume such is arrogance, and such arrogance can definitely exist on a collective level.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1619666237860229121?cxt=HHwWgsDRpZX3mvosAAAA

Happy Mid-February!

This isn't an own man. If you watch my later posts I predicted that Bakhmut might fall around mid to late February. Possibly extended to next month if AFU does small counter-attacks to the south of Ivanivske (Which I successfully predicted would happen).

Either way you realize that there is no strategic point to hold Bakhmut anymore (Except losing Siversk) for the Ukrainians. At this point it's politics the only reason they keep reinforcing this cluster of a city. You don't look a map and think this is an adventageous position to hold:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor4/status/1626255805694758912

You can be mad all you want that the Russian army consistently underperforms your publicly shared expectations, the fact remains that you continue to crowd this thread with your overly rosy predictions for Russian military success only to have to continually revise them without admitting that you have been wrong.  

As for the actual strategic value of the city, I don't know enough to say you're right. It could be like Stalingrad in that regardless of whatever greater strategic value the city holds, the real importance of it is in how much the invader seems to care about taking it. Clearly the Russians will waste as many lives to capture the city as it takes, so if the Ukrainians think they benefit from keeping that battle ongoing I say more power to them.

I don't get why you're being hostile. Also, you don't have to lie, I haven't crowded this thread with predictions about anything (maybe a little of Kharkiv back in Sept.), except recently about Bakhmut (Which is an obvious call, it is going to fall that's a fact, in days or weeks is something we can discuss) - also Russians probably taking everything east of Zherebets river, that's a realistic expectation during these recent course of events.

My posting history is OSINT accounts/Geo locations, or Ukrainian Telegrams about the frontlines. Which is the most important part of the war. That's not me making predictions, it doesn't mean I am sucking Putin's cock or taking sides. It's just that reality is hinging on Russia's favor, that's something everyone has to acknowledge making forward.

Also, if you have to know, I have followed this ever since 2014. This conflict has more factors than just Russia vs Ukraine - whatever we disagree on, I think we all agree the course of action Putin went for in Feb. 24th was the wrong way. So that's why I believe Ukraine has the right to fight for emancipation.

Oh come on,
Just be honest with yourself. You definitely want Russia to win.

Maybe in the hysteria-driven mindset in which people see SirWoodbury, sure.
No, you cannot tell the side someone is on just because of the shibboleths they do and don't say. To assume such is arrogance, and such arrogance can definitely exist on a collective level.

I mean when he gets upset when people say Ukraine is winning and making threads in USGD complaining about the aid we are sending Ukraine it does raise suspicions. Not to mention his heads Russia wins and tails Ukraine loses way of judging the war (ie his attitude of Bakmut for Russia vs Kherson for Ukraine)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1619666237860229121?cxt=HHwWgsDRpZX3mvosAAAA

Happy Mid-February!

This isn't an own man. If you watch my later posts I predicted that Bakhmut might fall around mid to late February. Possibly extended to next month if AFU does small counter-attacks to the south of Ivanivske (Which I successfully predicted would happen).

Either way you realize that there is no strategic point to hold Bakhmut anymore (Except losing Siversk) for the Ukrainians. At this point it's politics the only reason they keep reinforcing this cluster of a city. You don't look a map and think this is an adventageous position to hold:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor4/status/1626255805694758912

You can be mad all you want that the Russian army consistently underperforms your publicly shared expectations, the fact remains that you continue to crowd this thread with your overly rosy predictions for Russian military success only to have to continually revise them without admitting that you have been wrong.  

As for the actual strategic value of the city, I don't know enough to say you're right. It could be like Stalingrad in that regardless of whatever greater strategic value the city holds, the real importance of it is in how much the invader seems to care about taking it. Clearly the Russians will waste as many lives to capture the city as it takes, so if the Ukrainians think they benefit from keeping that battle ongoing I say more power to them.

I don't get why you're being hostile. Also, you don't have to lie, I haven't crowded this thread with predictions about anything (maybe a little of Kharkiv back in Sept.), except recently about Bakhmut (Which is an obvious call, it is going to fall that's a fact, in days or weeks is something we can discuss) - also Russians probably taking everything east of Zherebets river, that's a realistic expectation during these recent course of events.

My posting history is OSINT accounts/Geo locations, or Ukrainian Telegrams about the frontlines. Which is the most important part of the war. That's not me making predictions, it doesn't mean I am sucking Putin's cock or taking sides. It's just that reality is hinging on Russia's favor, that's something everyone has to acknowledge making forward.

Also, if you have to know, I have followed this ever since 2014. This conflict has more factors than just Russia vs Ukraine - whatever we disagree on, I think we all agree the course of action Putin went for in Feb. 24th was the wrong way. So that's why I believe Ukraine has the right to fight for emancipation.

Oh come on,
Just be honest with yourself. You definitely want Russia to win.

Maybe in the hysteria-driven mindset in which people see SirWoodbury, sure.
No, you cannot tell the side someone is on just because of the shibboleths they do and don't say. To assume such is arrogance, and such arrogance can definitely exist on a collective level.

I mean when he gets upset when people say Ukraine is winning and making threads in USGD complaining about the aid we are sending Ukraine it does raise suspicions. Not to mention his heads Russia wins and tails Ukraine loses way of judging the war (ie his attitude of Bakmut for Russia vs Kherson for Ukraine)

You can't just conflate those who are actually pro-Russia and those who think we are giving Ukraine too much aid...especially when it, undeniably, comes at the American taxpayer's dime, especially when said person has known fiscally conservative sympathies. And if thinking someone is (relatively or absolutely) strong means you support them, then Reagan's 1984 presidential campaign should have been investigated for KGB ties - who knows, maybe he's actually a Soviet agent trying to convince America to overspend on defense?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1619666237860229121?cxt=HHwWgsDRpZX3mvosAAAA

Happy Mid-February!

This isn't an own man. If you watch my later posts I predicted that Bakhmut might fall around mid to late February. Possibly extended to next month if AFU does small counter-attacks to the south of Ivanivske (Which I successfully predicted would happen).

Either way you realize that there is no strategic point to hold Bakhmut anymore (Except losing Siversk) for the Ukrainians. At this point it's politics the only reason they keep reinforcing this cluster of a city. You don't look a map and think this is an adventageous position to hold:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor4/status/1626255805694758912

You can be mad all you want that the Russian army consistently underperforms your publicly shared expectations, the fact remains that you continue to crowd this thread with your overly rosy predictions for Russian military success only to have to continually revise them without admitting that you have been wrong.  

As for the actual strategic value of the city, I don't know enough to say you're right. It could be like Stalingrad in that regardless of whatever greater strategic value the city holds, the real importance of it is in how much the invader seems to care about taking it. Clearly the Russians will waste as many lives to capture the city as it takes, so if the Ukrainians think they benefit from keeping that battle ongoing I say more power to them.

I don't get why you're being hostile. Also, you don't have to lie, I haven't crowded this thread with predictions about anything (maybe a little of Kharkiv back in Sept.), except recently about Bakhmut (Which is an obvious call, it is going to fall that's a fact, in days or weeks is something we can discuss) - also Russians probably taking everything east of Zherebets river, that's a realistic expectation during these recent course of events.

My posting history is OSINT accounts/Geo locations, or Ukrainian Telegrams about the frontlines. Which is the most important part of the war. That's not me making predictions, it doesn't mean I am sucking Putin's cock or taking sides. It's just that reality is hinging on Russia's favor, that's something everyone has to acknowledge making forward.

Also, if you have to know, I have followed this ever since 2014. This conflict has more factors than just Russia vs Ukraine - whatever we disagree on, I think we all agree the course of action Putin went for in Feb. 24th was the wrong way. So that's why I believe Ukraine has the right to fight for emancipation.

Oh come on,
Just be honest with yourself. You definitely want Russia to win.

Maybe in the hysteria-driven mindset in which people see SirWoodbury, sure.
No, you cannot tell the side someone is on just because of the shibboleths they do and don't say. To assume such is arrogance, and such arrogance can definitely exist on a collective level.

I mean when he gets upset when people say Ukraine is winning and making threads in USGD complaining about the aid we are sending Ukraine it does raise suspicions. Not to mention his heads Russia wins and tails Ukraine loses way of judging the war (ie his attitude of Bakmut for Russia vs Kherson for Ukraine)

You can't just conflate those who are actually pro-Russia and those who think we are giving Ukraine too much aid...especially when it, undeniably, comes at the American taxpayer's dime, especially when said person has known fiscally conservative sympathies. And if thinking someone is (relatively or absolutely) strong means you support them, then Reagan's 1984 presidential campaign should have been investigated for KGB ties - who knows, maybe he's actually a Soviet agent trying to convince America to overspend on defense?

But again his compliant about aid is only a part of the picture the more general way he raises suspicion is stuff like hyping any Russian progress in Bakmut but downplaying Ukraine progress in Kherson or Kharkiv. Also quite frankly if you go all the way to the start of the thread and what he was posting it paints a picture of a person hoping Ukraine fall so they can lay the blame on Biden and own the libs

[Woody]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1619666237860229121?cxt=HHwWgsDRpZX3mvosAAAA

Happy Mid-February!

This isn't an own man. If you watch my later posts I predicted that Bakhmut might fall around mid to late February. Possibly extended to next month if AFU does small counter-attacks to the south of Ivanivske (Which I successfully predicted would happen).

Either way you realize that there is no strategic point to hold Bakhmut anymore (Except losing Siversk) for the Ukrainians. At this point it's politics the only reason they keep reinforcing this cluster of a city. You don't look a map and think this is an adventageous position to hold:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor4/status/1626255805694758912

You can be mad all you want that the Russian army consistently underperforms your publicly shared expectations, the fact remains that you continue to crowd this thread with your overly rosy predictions for Russian military success only to have to continually revise them without admitting that you have been wrong.  

As for the actual strategic value of the city, I don't know enough to say you're right. It could be like Stalingrad in that regardless of whatever greater strategic value the city holds, the real importance of it is in how much the invader seems to care about taking it. Clearly the Russians will waste as many lives to capture the city as it takes, so if the Ukrainians think they benefit from keeping that battle ongoing I say more power to them.

I don't get why you're being hostile. Also, you don't have to lie, I haven't crowded this thread with predictions about anything (maybe a little of Kharkiv back in Sept.), except recently about Bakhmut (Which is an obvious call, it is going to fall that's a fact, in days or weeks is something we can discuss) - also Russians probably taking everything east of Zherebets river, that's a realistic expectation during these recent course of events.

My posting history is OSINT accounts/Geo locations, or Ukrainian Telegrams about the frontlines. Which is the most important part of the war. That's not me making predictions, it doesn't mean I am sucking Putin's cock or taking sides. It's just that reality is hinging on Russia's favor, that's something everyone has to acknowledge making forward.

Also, if you have to know, I have followed this ever since 2014. This conflict has more factors than just Russia vs Ukraine - whatever we disagree on, I think we all agree the course of action Putin went for in Feb. 24th was the wrong way. So that's why I believe Ukraine has the right to fight for emancipation.

Oh come on,
Just be honest with yourself. You definitely want Russia to win.

Maybe in the hysteria-driven mindset in which people see SirWoodbury, sure.
No, you cannot tell the side someone is on just because of the shibboleths they do and don't say. To assume such is arrogance, and such arrogance can definitely exist on a collective level.

I mean when he gets upset when people say Ukraine is winning and making threads in USGD complaining about the aid we are sending Ukraine it does raise suspicions. Not to mention his heads Russia wins and tails Ukraine loses way of judging the war (ie his attitude of Bakmut for Russia vs Kherson for Ukraine)

I don't get upset. It's just that you're being weird, this isn't a Hoi4 match.

The way you describe what Ukraine should and shouldn't do is straight up weird, man. "Ukraine should just go south after rushing Leopard 2, move towards Melitopol/Mariupol, encircle Crimea, etc.." like you're describing a paradox game or it's that simple (Or, you know, something obvious that has been going through the mind of several thousand military leaders/warbloggers on both sides?).. it's just armchair analysis.

[BG-NY]

Well, what would be considered a “win” for either side at this point?

[Woody]

Also, if you can't see the difference between Kherson and Bakhmut, I don't know what to tell you.

Kherson was a battle where Ukraine's assault forces consisted of mechanized brigades of it's conventional army got heavily destroyed (things like BMPs and tanks which is going to win this war) and where the Russian Army withdrew surprisingly intact behind the Dniepro.

Bakhmut is a battle where both sides isn't using much or if any of mechanized equipment. Rather mortars, artillery and assault infantry where the attacker is generally just consisting of cannon fodder convicts from prison colonies. A city so ruined and attritional to hold, that unlike Russia, hasn't decided to withdraw yet - and is still sending brigades from other active fronts like Kreminna to hold.

[Comrade Funk]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1619666237860229121?cxt=HHwWgsDRpZX3mvosAAAA

Happy Mid-February!

This isn't an own man. If you watch my later posts I predicted that Bakhmut might fall around mid to late February. Possibly extended to next month if AFU does small counter-attacks to the south of Ivanivske (Which I successfully predicted would happen).

Either way you realize that there is no strategic point to hold Bakhmut anymore (Except losing Siversk) for the Ukrainians. At this point it's politics the only reason they keep reinforcing this cluster of a city. You don't look a map and think this is an adventageous position to hold:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor4/status/1626255805694758912

You can be mad all you want that the Russian army consistently underperforms your publicly shared expectations, the fact remains that you continue to crowd this thread with your overly rosy predictions for Russian military success only to have to continually revise them without admitting that you have been wrong. 

As for the actual strategic value of the city, I don't know enough to say you're right. It could be like Stalingrad in that regardless of whatever greater strategic value the city holds, the real importance of it is in how much the invader seems to care about taking it. Clearly the Russians will waste as many lives to capture the city as it takes, so if the Ukrainians think they benefit from keeping that battle ongoing I say more power to them.

I don't get why you're being hostile. Also, you don't have to lie, I haven't crowded this thread with predictions about anything (maybe a little of Kharkiv back in Sept.), except recently about Bakhmut (Which is an obvious call, it is going to fall that's a fact, in days or weeks is something we can discuss) - also Russians probably taking everything east of Zherebets river, that's a realistic expectation during these recent course of events.

My posting history is OSINT accounts/Geo locations, or Ukrainian Telegrams about the frontlines. Which is the most important part of the war. That's not me making predictions, it doesn't mean I am sucking Putin's cock or taking sides. It's just that reality is hinging on Russia's favor, that's something everyone has to acknowledge making forward.

Also, if you have to know, I have followed this ever since 2014. This conflict has more factors than just Russia vs Ukraine - whatever we disagree on, I think we all agree the course of action Putin went for in Feb. 24th was the wrong way. So that's why I believe Ukraine has the right to fight for emancipation.

Oh come on,
Just be honest with yourself. You definitely want Russia to win.

Maybe in the hysteria-driven mindset in which people see SirWoodbury, sure.
No, you cannot tell the side someone is on just because of the shibboleths they do and don't say. To assume such is arrogance, and such arrogance can definitely exist on a collective level.

I mean when he gets upset when people say Ukraine is winning and making threads in USGD complaining about the aid we are sending Ukraine it does raise suspicions. Not to mention his heads Russia wins and tails Ukraine loses way of judging the war (ie his attitude of Bakmut for Russia vs Kherson for Ukraine)

You can't just conflate those who are actually pro-Russia and those who think we are giving Ukraine too much aid...especially when it, undeniably, comes at the American taxpayer's dime, especially when said person has known fiscally conservative sympathies. And if thinking someone is (relatively or absolutely) strong means you support them, then Reagan's 1984 presidential campaign should have been investigated for KGB ties - who knows, maybe he's actually a Soviet agent trying to convince America to overspend on defense?

Oh please. There's at least two years plus of evidence from previous posts

[Hindsight was 2020]

Also, if you can't see the difference between Kherson and Bakhmut, I don't know what to tell you.

Kherson was a battle where Ukraine's assault forces consisted of mechanized brigades of it's conventional army got heavily destroyed (things like BMPs and tanks which is going to win this war) and where the Russian Army withdrew surprisingly intact behind the Dniepro.

Bakhmut is a battle where both sides isn't using much or if any of mechanized equipment. Rather mortars, artillery and assault infantry where the attacker is generally just consisting of cannon fodder convicts from prison colonies. A city so ruined and attritional to hold, that unlike Russia, hasn't decided to withdraw yet - and is still sending brigades from other active fronts like Kreminna to hold.

First off we have no idea what Ukraine lost in Kherson and the evidence of them losing a ton of mechanized brigades is based off a NYT report from the first weeks of the campaign and the loses they described doesn’t match with the type of progress Ukraine made. Second, even Virginia point out that the narrative you like to push that Russia is just sending a bunch of social undesirables to their deaths in Bakmut is not true. Wagner is all but out of the picture now, the 500+ troops Russia is losing per day are the poor citizens they conscripted and grabbed off the streets that make of the bulk of the army now

[John Dule]

Maybe in the hysteria-driven mindset in which people see SirWoodbury, sure.
No, you cannot tell the side someone is on just because of the shibboleths they do and don't say. To assume such is arrogance, and such arrogance can definitely exist on a collective level.

A smoothbrained take so dense only a centrist could've made it. To say that you can never infer someone's beliefs based on their statements and actions is the kind of statement one can only endorse if they are in the ideological clutches of both-sidesism.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Maybe in the hysteria-driven mindset in which people see SirWoodbury, sure.
No, you cannot tell the side someone is on just because of the shibboleths they do and don't say. To assume such is arrogance, and such arrogance can definitely exist on a collective level.

A smoothbrained take so dense only a centrist could've made it. To say that you can never infer someone's beliefs based on their statements and actions is the kind of statement one can only endorse if they are in the ideological clutches of both-sidesism.

I never said "you can never infer someone's beliefs". I said "you can't necessarily tell someone's beliefs based purely off shibboleths". Woodbury has said, multiple times, he is supportive of Ukraine, so it would be quite unfair to him if I didn't take that into account either.
Please, either use the full scope of your mental facilities, or keep your mouth shut. Instead of valid argumentation, you just said stuff that is neither here nor there.
P.S. I would rather die as a moderate than permanently become an extremist.