Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[EastAnglianLefty]

But what I don't get is...

How did Prigozhin, with a ragtag group of cons, manage to do this to a group of well-trained, motivated & NATO-equipped professional soldiers?

Wagner has a lot of cannon fodder, but it also has a core of experienced mercenary forces who are at least as experienced as anybody the Ukrainians have under arms.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But what I don't get is...

How did Prigozhin, with a ragtag group of cons, manage to do this to a group of well-trained, motivated & NATO-equipped professional soldiers?

Very few wars are totally one sided, as you know perfectly well.

(plus what others have already posted)

'The failure of Operation Market Garden proves that there is still hope for Hitler'

[Vosem]

I also just saw a UA-posted video of them loading dozens of bodies into trucks in Bakhmut & Soledar, so this doesn't surprise me.

But what I don't get is...

How did Prigozhin, with a ragtag group of cons, manage to do this to a group of well-trained, motivated & NATO-equipped professional soldiers?

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1612951186981650434

I think this picture offers a hint as to why. Wagner are known to be masters of deception and tricks.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1612862290788847618

I do believe that Ukraine has made the mistake of overcommiting their forces in Bakhmut. The Svatove offensive has stalled as a result despite being more strategically significant than Bakhmut.

This is a straight war crime, right? And one of the most classic ones.

Article 23 of the 1907 Hague Convention IV – The Laws and Customs of War on Land provides that: "It is especially forbidden....(b) To kill or wound treacherously individuals belonging to the hostile nation or army....(f) To make improper use of a flag of truce, of the national flag, or of the military insignia and military uniform of the enemy, as well as the distinctive badges of the Geneva Convention".

Quote is from Wikipedia, but my understanding is that this is well-known, unless I'm missing something about how things went down in Soledar.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I also just saw a UA-posted video of them loading dozens of bodies into trucks in Bakhmut & Soledar, so this doesn't surprise me.

But what I don't get is...

How did Prigozhin, with a ragtag group of cons, manage to do this to a group of well-trained, motivated & NATO-equipped professional soldiers?

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1612951186981650434

I think this picture offers a hint as to why. Wagner are known to be masters of deception and tricks.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1612862290788847618
I do believe that Ukraine has made the mistake of overcommiting their forces in Bakhmut. The Svatove offensive has stalled as a result despite being more strategically significant than Bakhmut.

This is a straight war crime, right? And one of the most classic ones.

Article 23 of the 1907 Hague Convention IV – The Laws and Customs of War on Land provides that: "It is especially forbidden....(b) To kill or wound treacherously individuals belonging to the hostile nation or army....(f) To make improper use of a flag of truce, of the national flag, or of the military insignia and military uniform of the enemy, as well as the distinctive badges of the Geneva Convention".

Quote is from Wikipedia, but my understanding is that this is well-known, unless I'm missing something about how things went down in Soledar.

Probably, but one of the milder ones in any case. Wagner's Telegram has bragged (with video footage) about committing perfidy before.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1613225533172551701?s=20&t=mCMECs9W5...

"What did Surovikin do wrong? Nothing, really (in context - this is not about his morality...). Yes, there were all kinds of reversals, including the recent Makiivka strike, but there is a limit to what one new commander can do in 3 months 3/

But Putin doesn't necessarily understand this (remember: no military experience and a court full of sycophants) nor care. 4/

For Gerasimov (who were were being assured was out of favour and about to be sacked... or who was Putin's right hand man...) it is a kind of demotion, or at least the most poisoned of chalices. It's now on him, and I suspect Putin has unrealistic expectations again 5/

It has been pretty clear that there will be spring offensives - that's what the 150,000 mobiks not thrown into the fight are being held for. 150k fresh troops, however poor quality, will make a difference, but not, I suspect enough for Putin 6/

There may well be some advances, but nothing decisive (and the Ukrainians themselves will be looking to a spring offensive). In many ways, I don't think Moscow's strategy hinges anyway on battlefield victory - it's more about politics 7/

In other words, demonstrating to the West that Russia is in this for the long haul, and hoping that we will lose the will and unity to continue to support Kyiv. (I think Putin will be disappointed, but he *has* to believe this - it's his only real shot at some kind of victory) 8/

So what does this actually mean? (a) Confirmation, if we needed it, that there will be serious offensives coming, and that even Putin recognises that poor coordination has been an issue (though can even Gerasimov truly command Wagner + Kadyrovtsy?) 9/

(b) Gerasimov is hanging by a thread. I don't think this is intended to create a pretext to sack him as the war is too important and Putin can sack who he wants. But he needs some kind of win or a career ends in ignominy. This may well suggest some kinds of escalation 10/

Not the nuclear option, but more mobilisation or, arguably more militarily logical but politically dangerous, also deploying conscripts. They are better trained and equipped than most mobiks! 11/

(c) Putin doesn't understand/care about his officer corps. If you keep appointing, rotating, burning your (relative) stars, setting unrealistic expectations, arbitrarily demoting them, that's not going to win loyalty 12/

Here and now, I don't see that as a crucial issue, but as with the anger and demoralisation of the Rosgvardiya (because they feel they were used as cannonfodder), it's one of those issues which may bite Putin in a real crisis. 13/end

Oh, and obligatory PS: NO, THERE IS NO GERASIMOV DOCTRINE! "

[Storr]

The clip ends with: "The enemy's children can be re-educated, but the enemy himself must be eliminated."

A true bastion of traditional Christian values.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1613173989311913985?s=20&t=xKCjpzdW...

[Person Man]

The clip ends with: "The enemy's children can be re-educated, but the enemy himself must be eliminated."

A true bastion of traditional Christian values.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1613173989311913985?s=20&t=xKCjpzdW...

Wasn’t that the central part of the entire aryanization deal?

[jaichind]

As the war started Greek shippers came in to help Russia export oil.  Given that Greek shippers are dependent on the London shipping insurance market this level has gone done since the price cap.  On the other hand, various "unknown" ships seem to be picking up the slack to minimize the decline in Russian oil exports.  I suspect a lot of these "unknown" ships are really Greek ships doing these exports below the radar using non-London shipping insurance.

[Tintrlvr]

As the war started Greek shippers came in to help Russia export oil.  Given that Greek shippers are dependent on the London shipping insurance market this level has gone done since the price cap.  On the other hand, various "unknown" ships seem to be picking up the slack to minimize the decline in Russian oil exports.  I suspect a lot of these "unknown" ships are really Greek ships doing these exports below the radar using non-London shipping insurance.

There's been a big drop in Russia-based ships, too. Isn't it more likely that the "unknowns" are mostly Russians pretending they aren't Russian? Especially since the drop in Greek ships more or less exactly matches the overall volume declines.

[Torie]

Where are these closeted Russian ships getting their insurance, or are they going bare? These ships need to hit an iceberg or two methinks.

[lfromnj]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-claims-success-in-ukraines-soledar-its-first-advance-in-months-11673429457

“It’s not me, it’s King Leonidas who figured out that you should fight the enemy on the terrain that is advantageous to you,” said one Ukrainian commander in Bakhmut, referring to the ruler of Sparta who battled the Persian Empire at Thermopylae. “So far, the exchange rate of trading our lives for theirs favors the Russians. If this goes on like this, we could run out.”

Despite Ukraine being on the defensive it seems they are losing more soldiers than the Russians at Bakhmut

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1613514324097617924

[Virginiá]

Honestly, I think Germany's support for Ukraine is underrated - they have provided significant materiel of all types, many including less flashy equipment that is still critical for extensive military operations, but it is at the very least political malpractice how badly they have handled the public relations aspect of their support. They have stereotyped themselves as the "reluctant supporters" who spend more time arguing against aid, even when it's other countries just wishing to give their own German-made military equipment, than they do trying to work with others. They have done such a bad job setting an example on this issue that there should be serious questions about their ability to make tough decisions in a real war involving NATO.

It's just amazing how bad at this they have been, and because of that, they get a lot of crap they don't necessarily deserve, but this insistance that America must lead, not just other European countries, is a direct contradiction of prior statements that Germany (aka Scholz) simply doesn't want to go it alone, indicating other EU nations leading would free up support, when that was always a lie and it was all about the US. So either Germany wants this, or Biden does, in which case the US is being the impediment here. Either way, there is a good amount of dishonesty and bad policy going on and I would hope at some point the parties involved do some introspection about what kind of purpose this shoddy leadership serves in terms of positive foreign relations with other EU members.

This is a good tweet circulating about how predictable German stances on weapons are, and exactly why the people making these terrible decisions need a good, long look in the mirror to decide if they are being smart about this. If they are going to cave eventually anyway, why sour foreign relations and make yourself look weak and incompetent?

https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/1613515864166334464

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1613593237595521024?cxt=HHwWgIDUrYOg0eQsAAAA

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1613559019443978240

[Middle-aged Europe]

This is a good tweet circulating about how predictable German stances on weapons are, and exactly why the people making these terrible decisions need a good, long look in the mirror to decide if they are being smart about this. If they are going to cave eventually anyway, why sour foreign relations and make yourself look weak and incompetent?

https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/1613515864166334464

The German government is currently made up of three distinct political parties who vary in their degree of military support for Ukraine.

Robert Habeck's statement that I had quoted above should maybe translated as "I'm personally in favour of sending our Leopards to Ukraine, but since Olaf Scholz is against it and I'm his deputy I'm not going to say that aloud and instead I publicly support not blocking Polish Leopard shipments to Ukraine".

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1613633676264280084

[Storr]

While the West is debating whether or not to send Leopard 2 tanks to it, Ukraine is still capturing more Russian tanks:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1613325613795770371?s=20&t=a_AvURuHza9g...

[Storr]

More delusional grandeur coming out of Russia:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1613624319065657354?s=20&t=a_AvURu...

Meanwhile, in reality:

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1613528492905271296?s=20&t=a_AvURuH...

[Hollywood]

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1613559019443978240

Ukraine cannot afford to lose Paraskoviivka, because it will give Russia fire control over the crossroads between E40/M03 and the 513.   This gives Russia access to the Northern Road into Bakhmut, and cuts off troops defending the line West of Soledar/Bakhmutski River (Blahodatne, Krasnopolivka).  It’s basically open field behind the AFU.  In the heart of winter, Ukraine cannot maintain this line given the lack of fortifications, supply routes, and cover.   The Russians will be able to roll up their line from south to north, and put pressure on Siversk.  The Russians also be able to advance on Berkhiivka (NW of Bakhmut), and use that town to take fire control over 2 of the last 3 roads out of Bakhmut). If Parakoviivka, then Klishchiivka must be held at all costs to prevent the Russians from taking H-32.  The Russians will also have a relatively clear path to Kramatorsk along the M03, as there are only fields and small towns along the way, as opposed to fortifications, barriers, trenches, and urban development.  The fight for Bakhmut could be the most pivotal battle of the entire conflict given the amount of manpower that’s being invested by Ukraine. 

Frankly,  I'm worried about Ukraine. I don't think they can afford to lose the amount of soldiers Zelensky is risking in Bakhmut, and they pulling more and more brigades from other areas to reinforce their casualties, particularly after Soledar.  Meanwhile, the Russians seem to finally have enough manpower to continuously assault the AFU in multiple directions, as opposed to the artillery-reliant stop-and-go advances that allowed Ukraine plenty of time to reorganize, redeploy, and reinforce their troops. 

Update in Paraskoviivka/Krasna Hora https://twitter.com/busnitized/status/1613643869010239494/photo/1

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1613619957031440384?s=20&t=a_AvURuH...

[jaichind]

The Russian strategy in the  Donbass is interesting.  Historically, in the Russian Civil War as well as the Germany-USSR war SE Ukraine changed hands multiple hands between the Reds and Whites in one and the Germans and Soviets in the other.  In all cases the attacking party always avoided doing a frontal attack in the Donbass due to the heavy urban nature of the area which makes it favor the defense.  In all cases all sides tried to go around the  Donbass with encirclement attempts.  This time around Russia is trying to pound their way through the Donbass at a very slow pace.  I assume this is a combination of Russia not feeling confident at its ability to pull off an encirclement given the satellite intelligence that the Collective West can provide Ukraine as well as Russia deciding that it has the time to turn the Donbass into a meat grinder to try to inflict Ukraine causalities even if it means that the battle will take a long time.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1613611531903565860
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1613611535061876765
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1613611538438590464
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1613616132052684802

[jaichind]

https://sports.yahoo.com/ukraine-needs-thousands-western-tanks-164300856.html

"Ukraine needs ‘thousands of Western tanks’ to change course of war, says Ambassador Prystaiko"

Now Ukraine needs thousands of tanks?

[jaichind]

With all this talk about tanks for Ukraine I wonder if the German Green party will keep their 2021 election promise



Perhaps they can now say that Ukraine is not a war zone but a "Special military operation zone"