Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[windjammer]

So,
What IS going to happen next?

Could Meliotopol fall in the coming months?

[Hindsight was 2020]

So,
What IS going to happen next?

Could Meliotopol fall in the coming months?

It’s a tricky thing because Meliotopol is the logical next step as taking it splits Russian controlled territory in half which is all but checkmate for the war as the Donbas and Crimea will essentially be two isolated pockets with no way for Russia to supply them (all be it if Svatove is recaptured and the Crimea bridge are blown as well). However, because it is so obvious then Russia will likely dig in hard to that area and make any offensive very costly and difficult

[Frodo]

With all this talk about Ukraine making Melitopol the key target of its next offensive, how do we know that it isn't another feint drawing scarce Russian resources to defend that city at the expense of other areas?  Last time, Ukraine led the Russians to believe that Kherson was going to be the main target, before it became apparent that their main objective was to clear Kharkiv oblast of Russian troops.  Perhaps something similar is happening, and the main assault could be aimed at Mariupol instead?

This statement is false, right? Think about that. It’s actually a good strategy.

No, it's not.  The Russians now fully expect Ukraine to attack towards Melitopol and have prepared accordingly, in all likelihood; so why not let them draw all their forces and reserves to defend that city, while preparing for a thrust towards Mariupol instead?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1606631012104028162?s=20&t=lPXVRSov...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/reshetz/status/1596535482443530240?s=20&t=8RLUUCGNbsxiHq...

[Torie]

Mirror, mirror on the wall, which historical leader does Putin resemble most of all?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-russia-ukraine-war-advisers-11671815184

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/reshetz/status/1596535482443530240?s=20&t=8RLUUCGNbsxiHq...

Much is made of Kyiv and Kharkiv holding strong during the early days of the war, and rightfully so: they ensured that the Ukrainian state as such would survive, functionally guaranteeing a Russian strategic defeat regardless of how the rest of the war went. However, Mykolaiv holding strong was also a crucial turning point. Until then, Russia had been able to run rampant across the South of the country, and there was a real possibility that they could come to overtake the entire coastline. Without Mykolaiv, that became impossible. Odessa was perhaps the biggest prize Putin could realistically hope for after the first week of the war, but now even it is out of reach. Ukraine continues to be a maritime country and is now even able to export grain against Russia's wishes. This is fundamental to its future as a sovereign country, and it has Mykolaiv's heroic defenders to thank for.

[jaichind]

It seems the Ukrainian MoD put out this tweet below but then took it down right away.

https://twitter.com/KilkorpsFiddler/status/1605386017715806209

The ROC and HK protest flags clearly are the main problems here.  By not taking it down they are giving to the PRC the opening for an argument of: "Well if you are not going to adhere to the One China policy you claimed then nothing stops us from recognizing Russian annexations of various Ukrainian territories."  Clearly, Ukraine's MoD thought it over and took the tweet down.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1606982873445457921
Merry Christmas Putin lol

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1606949140377772034?s=20&t=eUzVOs...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1606924803004407808?s=20&t=eUzVOs...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1606924803004407808?s=20&t=eUzVOs...

Meanwhile, in the Russian World: the beatings will continue until morale improves.

[Edited to include tweet with a translation of the video]
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1607085505291898882?s=20&t=lYS8pKzC...

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1606924803004407808?s=20&t=eUzVOs...

Meanwhile, in the Russian World: the beatings will continue until morale improves.

Edited to include tweet with a translation of the video:
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1607085505291898882?s=20&t=lYS8pKzC...

That candlelight Christmas dinner image is stunningly moving and beautiful. Thank you for putting it up.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1606924803004407808?s=20&t=eUzVOs...

This struck me as weird as Ukraine's Orthodox Christmas is always Jan 7th.  Then I read.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-religion-orthodox-church-c8b84fad9dfe93554b2d28b08ec21ada

"Some Ukrainians move up Christmas to part ways with Russia"

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1607134405751083010?s=20&t=OP8WtmY3DT_A...

[Hindsight was 2020]

Rumblings on social media that Ukraine has entered Kreminna 👀

[Storr]

Odd messaging from Dima. I assume "security guarantees" mean halting the expansion of NATO. If anything, this war has made Ukraine into a de facto NATO member with all of the equipment and technology provided by countries in the alliance. It's almost like Russia is out of options militarily and has to return to prewar messaging.

A country that feels that its winning on the battlefield, especially in a war it started, doesn't usually talk about "security guarantees" anyway.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1607144212360794113?s=20&t=lYS8pKzCN0r...

[Frodo]

Odd messaging from Dima. I assume "security guarantees" mean halting the expansion of NATO. If anything, this war has made Ukraine into a de facto NATO member with all of the equipment and technology provided by countries in the alliance. It's almost like Russia is out of options militarily and has to return to prewar messaging.

A country that feels that its winning on the battlefield, especially in a war it started, doesn't usually talk about "security guarantees" anyway.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1607144212360794113?s=20&t=lYS8pKzCN0r...

If so, that request should be immediately rejected out of hand.  Russia forfeit whatever right they ever had over the future of NATO when they invaded Ukraine unprovoked.  They no longer have a say over the future of the countries on their periphery, at least in eastern Europe which will soon be off-limits to them entirely.   

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Odd messaging from Dima. I assume "security guarantees" mean halting the expansion of NATO. If anything, this war has made Ukraine into a de facto NATO member with all of the equipment and technology provided by countries in the alliance. It's almost like Russia is out of options militarily and has to return to prewar messaging.

A country that feels that its winning on the battlefield, especially in a war it started, doesn't usually talk about "security guarantees" anyway.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1607144212360794113?s=20&t=lYS8pKzCN0r...

If so, that request should be immediately rejected out of hand.  Russia forfeit whatever right they ever had over the future of NATO when they invaded Ukraine unprovoked.  They no longer have a say over the future of the countries on their periphery, at least in eastern Europe which will soon be off-limits to them entirely.   

I'm not so sure it should be rejected out of hand, but that is well how it could end up in my view. Depends on how weakened Russia is. A Ukraine at war with Russia is not good, but Russia controlling Ukraine is also not good. Ukraine as a NATO member would be amazing, but I dunno how feasible that actually is. This might not be the end of Russian irrendetism in Ukraine, there might be Round 3. Only God knows...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

"Liberators" give a nice "gift" to Ukrainian "military facilities"

How Jaichind, Woodbury & co can support this man is beyond me

https://twitter.com/am_misfit/status/1606824112248475648

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/g_morkert/status/1607081233909178368

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/g_morkert/status/1607081233909178368

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=534732.0

[Frodo]

I only hope he stays alive long enough to witness the final ultimate defeat of his invasion of Ukraine as Russian forces are driven out of the country:

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1607345753382436864

[Torie]

I only hope he stays alive long enough to witness the final ultimate defeat of his invasion of Ukraine as Russian forces are driven out of the country:

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1607345753382436864

An article from the tabloid Post means it's already problematical right out of the box. Then we read that this dude says he has pancreatic cancer and early stage Parkinson's. If he has the former the odds are high he would already be dead, and if he has the latter he could be good to go for another 5 to 10 years before dementia sets in. Parkinson's took about 15 years to kill my mother at age 90. So suggesting Putin is in his final year does not add up even if there is some truth in the diagnosis, which is a big if.

[Frodo]

I only hope he stays alive long enough to witness the final ultimate defeat of his invasion of Ukraine as Russian forces are driven out of the country:

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1607345753382436864

An article from the tabloid Post means it's already problematical right out of the box. Then we read that this dude says he has pancreatic cancer and early stage Parkinson's. If he has the former the odds are high he would already be dead,

If pancreatic cancer is left untreated, or if it is diagnosed too late, then yes.  Otherwise, he stands a good chance of surviving for a time.  And the article does mention quite prominently that he has access to western medicines and treatments.  

and if he has the latter he could be good to go for another 5 to 10 years before dementia sets in. Parkinson's took about 15 years to kill my mother at age 90. So suggesting Putin is in his final year does not add up given if their is some truth in the diagnosis, which is a big if.

We don't know for sure how long he has had Parkinson's, which typically afflicts people over the age of sixty, although it is not unheard of for it to kill people who are much younger.  
--------------------

I don't see why it is so out of left field to suggest he has either one of these ailments, given he is a dictator who has to worry every second of every day that he might 'fall out of a window', making the job of being President of the United States sound like a cakewalk by comparison.  At least the latter doesn't have to worry about his closest aides and associates plotting to kill him.