Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Dereich]

Biden just said that preliminarily it looks like it "was unlikely to have been fired from Russia." That still leaves a lot of possibilities open, of course.

[Mopsus]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1592610774668939264?cxt=HHwWgMDQmfj...
“Perfidious Albion strikes again”

BREAKING: Anglo-Saxons reported to have extended their war beneath the waves to the heavens above

[Virginiá]

In other news, the lame duck Congress will likely pass another Ukraine funding bill to fund the next year's fight. The $37 billion dollar number will probably go up.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1592618497678385154

Probably will, but I wonder by how much. This is notably less than the number floating around when the idea of passing lame duck funding started to be considered (that number was in the 50s).

I would also note that this doesn't even match the first long-term aid package the US approved in May (40 billion), which also doesn't factor in the separate aid packages (the 13.6 emergency aid in March or the ~12 billion supplementary aid approved in September). I do wonder how this reflects on the type of military support the US is projecting it is able and willing to offer Ukraine in 2023. It's possible they believe the Ukrainian army needs less aid since it has been significantly built up and has become somewhat more well-rounded, but it could also mean the US is running out of systems it is able & willing to send. We do know this attrition is starting to reach into things like artillery shells.

Just trying to think through it and deduce whether this is enough money for what the US is able to do overall or whether it reflects growing limitations in our ability to support the war.

[Blue3]

Random Trivia:
Poland already has a popular folk song about Ukraine/love/war/loss that's been around for a long time (like at least the 1930s, probably 1800s/1700s) used often in nurseries, weddings, and bars.

It actually has a catchy rhythm, at least this version (while reminding me how hard it is to learn Polish)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzZ1qmXZBuY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhmEnOoubnU

Anyways, just goes to remind how often the borders have changed in this part of the world:

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1592746625461460992?s=20&t=MnqKLexDyr...

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Watch Russian apologists try and claim this is somehow a sign of Putin 'being right' about Ukraine or something, without a thought in the world that if their orcs weren't slaughtering innocent civilians by the thousands and turning an otherwise peaceful country into a war zone... There wouldn't be any missiles or active warfare going on in the region.

Even if Ukraine accidentally fired it, and it's a tragedy for any civilians to lose their lives, it's still ultimately Russia's fault. Make no mistake.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1592746625461460992?s=20&t=MnqKLexDyr...

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1592815783138459648

[CumbrianLefty]

Watch Russian apologists try and claim this is somehow a sign of Putin 'being right' about Ukraine or something, without a thought in the world that if their orcs weren't slaughtering innocent civilians by the thousands and turning an otherwise peaceful country into a war zone... There wouldn't be any missiles or active warfare going on in the region.

Even if Ukraine accidentally fired it, and it's a tragedy for any civilians to lose their lives, it's still ultimately Russia's fault. Make no mistake.

I don't think that many save the now familiar usual suspects will do that.

These things happen in wars. The only way to avoid them is not to fight them.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Class act from our commander in chief at de-escalation.
We don't need war with Russia...the only winner from such a war would be cockroaches, and China.

[jaichind]

Either way, it is an accident.  I am sure neither Russia nor Ukraine has the incentive to get Poland directly involved.  The best way to stop this is a concerted effort to push for a compromise peace between Russia and Ukraine where neither gets what they want and both have to give up something.

[CumbrianLefty]

Either way, it is an accident.  I am sure neither Russia nor Ukraine has the incentive to get Poland directly involved.  The best way to stop this is a concerted effort to push for a compromise peace between Russia and Ukraine where neither gets what they want and both have to give up something.

It was pretty obviously an accident even when most presumed that Russia was responsible.

[Woody]

No Article 4 procedure, thank god.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1592841472923283456

[Middle-aged Europe]

No Article 4 procedure, thank god.

LOL

[Torie]

Either way, it is an accident.  I am sure neither Russia nor Ukraine has the incentive to get Poland directly involved.  The best way to stop this is a concerted effort to push for a compromise peace between Russia and Ukraine where neither gets what they want and both have to give up something.

Just out of curiousity, what would be the terms of the deal that would move you to urge Ukraine to accept it?

[jaichind]

Either way, it is an accident.  I am sure neither Russia nor Ukraine has the incentive to get Poland directly involved.  The best way to stop this is a concerted effort to push for a compromise peace between Russia and Ukraine where neither gets what they want and both have to give up something.

Just out of curiousity, what would be the terms of the deal that would move you to urge Ukraine to accept it?

Ukraine should be given 2 options

a) Areas under Russia's control are accepted as part of Russia AND Russia accepts Ukraine will enter NATO with condition that no NATO troops can enter Ukraine unless Russia invades (again) but such a future invasion would trigger an act of war from NATO.

OR

b) Areas under Russia's control re-join Ukraine as autonomous regions as part of a Ukraine confederation. The New Ukraine confederation has Constitutional changes to ensure that it is neutral and cannot enter any alliances.  Russia + NATO guarantees Ukraine confederation borders with a rule that ANY foreign troops on Ukraine will mean an act of war EVEN if Ukraine asked for it.

I do not think Russia will accept either but I will insist Russia accept one of the two as part of the compromise peace.

The idea is Russia can have territory concessions but not get Ukraine neutrality or Russia can get Ukrain neutrality but then cannot get any territories.

[jaichind]

Russia's Q3 GDP came in at -4.0% versus the expected -4.7%.  Russia's 2022  GDP numbers by Quarter YoY are
Q1:   3.5%
Q2:  -4.1%
Q3:  -4.0%

It seems absolute output on a QoQ basis has stabilized so it is reasonable to expect Q4 YoY to be -4.0% to -5.0% since we do have to take into account the impact of mobilization.   That should add up to a total 2022 GDP change to be around -2.5% to -3.0%.  This is much lower than the -8% to -10% when the war started and the collective West all-out sanctions started.

[Torie]

Either way, it is an accident.  I am sure neither Russia nor Ukraine has the incentive to get Poland directly involved.  The best way to stop this is a concerted effort to push for a compromise peace between Russia and Ukraine where neither gets what they want and both have to give up something.

Just out of curiousity, what would be the terms of the deal that would move you to urge Ukraine to accept it?

Ukraine should be given 2 options

a) Areas under Russia's control are accepted as part of Russia AND Russia accepts Ukraine will enter NATO with condition that no NATO troops can enter Ukraine unless Russia invades (again) but such a future invasion would trigger an act of war from NATO.

OR

b) Areas under Russia's control re-join Ukraine as autonomous regions as part of a Ukraine confederation. The New Ukraine confederation has Constitutional changes to ensure that it is neutral and cannot enter any alliances.  Russia + NATO guarantees Ukraine confederation borders with a rule that ANY foreign troops on Ukraine will mean an act of war EVEN if Ukraine asked for it.

I do not think Russia will accept either but I will insist Russia accept one of the two as part of the compromise peace.

The idea is Russia can have territory concessions but not get Ukraine neutrality or Russia can get Ukrain neutrality but then cannot get any territories.

What about Crimea? You approach has some logic, but Russia getting to keep any additional territory is a non starter. The only deal that will fly is giving Russia Crimea in the end in exchange for Ukraine having defense guarantees. One other option is a a land swap of some sort where Russia gives up the Donbas for a land bridge to Crimea, but I doubt Ukraine will go for that except under duress.

[emailking]

Austin says they see no evidence that contradicts the President of Poland's assessment that it was a likely a Ukrainian anti air missile that struck Poland.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Ukraine is winning the war.  Why should they give up anything?

Ukraine can join NATO if it damn well pleases.  Why should Russia get a say in the foreign affairs of Ukraine?  NATO is a purely defensive alliance and poses no aggressive threat to Russia.  It is not a reasonable ask for Ukraine to create a constitutional amendment saying they will only ever join alliances that Russia allows them to join.

All the Russian-conquered territories are part of Ukraine.  Donbas is part of Ukraine.  Crimea is part of Ukraine.  Russia took all these territories by illegal military force, committed ethnic cleansing and population transfers on a massive scale, and held phony referendums to try and justify their annexation.  None of this deserves to be given an ounce of credibility by the international community.  Ukraine has the absolute right to re-conquer and re-annex all of those territories under the doctrine of self-defense.

It is ridiculous for Russia to make any sort of demands from their current position of weakness but especially for them do demand spoils of war from a war that they have lost.  If Russia wants to end the war, then complete withdrawal and surrender of all illegally-occupied territory and a guarantee of Ukrainian sovereignty are the bare minimal baseline.  What Russia should be negotiating is whether or not sanctions get lifted and whether or not their leaders and soldiers are granted immunity from war crimes, not whether or not they get to keep the territory they stole.

And even if Russia does keep Crimea in the end, it's utterly ridiculous to suggest that Ukraine should completely cut itself off from the Sea of Azov, as well as major port cities such as Meriupol, Melitopol and Berdyansk, by granting Russia a contiguous land-link between Crimea and Russia. 

[Enduro]

Ukraine is winning the war.  Why should they give up anything?

Ukraine can join NATO if it damn well pleases.  Why should Russia get a say in the foreign affairs of Ukraine?  NATO is a purely defensive alliance and poses no aggressive threat to Russia.  It is not a reasonable ask for Ukraine to create a constitutional amendment saying they will only ever join alliances that Russia allows them to join.

All the Russian-conquered territories are part of Ukraine.  Donbas is part of Ukraine.  Crimea is part of Ukraine.  Russia took all these territories by illegal military force, committed ethnic cleansing and population transfers on a massive scale, and held phony referendums to try and justify their annexation.  None of this deserves to be given an ounce of credibility by the international community.  Ukraine has the absolute right to re-conquer and re-annex all of those territories under the doctrine of self-defense.

It is ridiculous for Russia to make any sort of demands from their current position of weakness but especially for them do demand spoils of war from a war that they have lost.  If Russia wants to end the war, then complete withdrawal and surrender of all illegally-occupied territory and a guarantee of Ukrainian sovereignty are the bare minimal baseline.  What Russia should be negotiating is whether or not sanctions get lifted and whether or not their leaders and soldiers are granted immunity from war crimes, not whether or not they get to keep the territory they stole.

And even if Russia does keep Crimea in the end, it's utterly ridiculous to suggest that Ukraine should completely cut itself off from the Sea of Azov, as well as major port cities such as Meriupol, Melitopol and Berdyansk, by granting Russia a contiguous land-link between Crimea and Russia. 

I completely agree; Russia isn't in a position to negotiate, and they lose more of it with each day that they pursue a losing war.

[jaichind]

Ukraine should be given 2 options

a) Areas under Russia's control are accepted as part of Russia AND Russia accepts Ukraine will enter NATO with condition that no NATO troops can enter Ukraine unless Russia invades (again) but such a future invasion would trigger an act of war from NATO.

OR

b) Areas under Russia's control re-join Ukraine as autonomous regions as part of a Ukraine confederation. The New Ukraine confederation has Constitutional changes to ensure that it is neutral and cannot enter any alliances.  Russia + NATO guarantees Ukraine confederation borders with a rule that ANY foreign troops on Ukraine will mean an act of war EVEN if Ukraine asked for it.

I do not think Russia will accept either but I will insist Russia accept one of the two as part of the compromise peace.

The idea is Russia can have territory concessions but not get Ukraine neutrality or Russia can get Ukrain neutrality but then cannot get any territories.

What about Crimea? You approach has some logic, but Russia getting to keep any additional territory is a non starter. The only deal that will fly is giving Russia Crimea in the end in exchange for Ukraine having defense guarantees. One other option is a a land swap of some sort where Russia gives up the Donbas for a land bridge to Crimea, but I doubt Ukraine will go for that except under duress.

Crimea is gone.  Even USA privately seems to indicate that any peace deal would mean Russia keeps Ukraine.  One face-saving possibility for Ukraine would be some sort of free trade setup between Ukraine and a Russia controlled Crimea.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine is winning the war.  Why should they give up anything?

Ukraine can join NATO if it damn well pleases.  Why should Russia get a say in the foreign affairs of Ukraine?  NATO is a purely defensive alliance and poses no aggressive threat to Russia.  It is not a reasonable ask for Ukraine to create a constitutional amendment saying they will only ever join alliances that Russia allows them to join.

All the Russian-conquered territories are part of Ukraine.  Donbas is part of Ukraine.  Crimea is part of Ukraine.  Russia took all these territories by illegal military force, committed ethnic cleansing and population transfers on a massive scale, and held phony referendums to try and justify their annexation.  None of this deserves to be given an ounce of credibility by the international community.  Ukraine has the absolute right to re-conquer and re-annex all of those territories under the doctrine of self-defense.

It is ridiculous for Russia to make any sort of demands from their current position of weakness but especially for them do demand spoils of war from a war that they have lost.  If Russia wants to end the war, then complete withdrawal and surrender of all illegally-occupied territory and a guarantee of Ukrainian sovereignty are the bare minimal baseline.  What Russia should be negotiating is whether or not sanctions get lifted and whether or not their leaders and soldiers are granted immunity from war crimes, not whether or not they get to keep the territory they stole.

And even if Russia does keep Crimea in the end, it's utterly ridiculous to suggest that Ukraine should completely cut itself off from the Sea of Azov, as well as major port cities such as Meriupol, Melitopol and Berdyansk, by granting Russia a contiguous land-link between Crimea and Russia. 

This. Crimea is the only place Russia holds that Ukraine would have a difficult time retaking. Why should Russia get a inch of soil to territory that Ukraine is likely to retake by next summer?

[AndyHogan14]

Ukraine is winning the war.  Why should they give up anything?

Ukraine can join NATO if it damn well pleases.  Why should Russia get a say in the foreign affairs of Ukraine?  NATO is a purely defensive alliance and poses no aggressive threat to Russia.  It is not a reasonable ask for Ukraine to create a constitutional amendment saying they will only ever join alliances that Russia allows them to join.

All the Russian-conquered territories are part of Ukraine.  Donbas is part of Ukraine.  Crimea is part of Ukraine.  Russia took all these territories by illegal military force, committed ethnic cleansing and population transfers on a massive scale, and held phony referendums to try and justify their annexation.  None of this deserves to be given an ounce of credibility by the international community.  Ukraine has the absolute right to re-conquer and re-annex all of those territories under the doctrine of self-defense.

It is ridiculous for Russia to make any sort of demands from their current position of weakness but especially for them do demand spoils of war from a war that they have lost.  If Russia wants to end the war, then complete withdrawal and surrender of all illegally-occupied territory and a guarantee of Ukrainian sovereignty are the bare minimal baseline.  What Russia should be negotiating is whether or not sanctions get lifted and whether or not their leaders and soldiers are granted immunity from war crimes, not whether or not they get to keep the territory they stole.

And even if Russia does keep Crimea in the end, it's utterly ridiculous to suggest that Ukraine should completely cut itself off from the Sea of Azov, as well as major port cities such as Meriupol, Melitopol and Berdyansk, by granting Russia a contiguous land-link between Crimea and Russia.  

This. Crimea is the only place Russia holds that Ukraine would have a difficult time retaking. Why should Russia get a inch of soil to territory that Ukraine is likely to retake by next summer?

To be honest, I think Ukraine may try to retake Crimea before some of the pre-February 24 parts of the Donbas. From what I understand, Ukrainian leadership sees Crimea as the lynchpin to the whole Russian operation and if they can retake Crimea, the whole house of cards will come tumbling down. Putin would "fall" out of a window and the chaos that ensues would allow Ukraine to retake the eastern territories.

Edit: And to be perfectly honest, retaking Crimea is **far** more important to Ukraine's national security than Donetsk and Luhansk.

[oldtimer]

Russia's Q3 GDP came in at -4.0% versus the expected -4.7%.  Russia's 2022  GDP numbers by Quarter YoY are
Q1:   3.5%
Q2:  -4.1%
Q3:  -4.0%

It seems absolute output on a QoQ basis has stabilized so it is reasonable to expect Q4 YoY to be -4.0% to -5.0% since we do have to take into account the impact of mobilization.   That should add up to a total 2022 GDP change to be around -2.5% to -3.0%.  This is much lower than the -8% to -10% when the war started and the collective West all-out sanctions started.

Dude, Russia is in a Great War and their industrial production still keeps going down.

Any real government would have mobilized it's industry to aid it's war efforts.

Like in 1916 there is no functional russian government that can implement decisions, but few have realized that the Tsar has no authority left.