Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Russian propaganda channels continue to spew racist stereotypes against "Black People" from earlier today...

I'm not sure about the purpose of this racism: are they admitting that "black people" are smarter and tougher warriors than the glorious, invincible Russian army?

Not quite sure why Russia has increasingly become a "Black Intolerant" country, especially considering the legacy of the Soviet Union, where it was not uncommon at all for members from "Sister Socialist Countries", to be able to easily obtain things like work, residency, and educational visas not that long ago.

I believe this phenomenon of racism against Black folks actually goes back towards the final years of the Soviet Union.

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/688835?journalCode=jmh

Still it appears to have dramatically increased under the reign of V. Putin...

https://news.illinois.edu/view/6367/294642973

Basically, Russia has increasingly become a country where ethnic stereotypes and racism have exploded in the past couple decades, accentuated by the collapse of the Soviet Union, and migration of people from the former Soviet Republics, who are still effectively 2nd class citizens.

[Хahar 🤔]

Not quite sure why Russia has increasingly become a "Black Intolerant" country, especially considering the legacy of the Soviet Union, where it was not uncommon at all for members from "Sister Socialist Countries", to be able to easily obtain things like work, residency, and educational visas not that long ago.

I believe this phenomenon of racism against Black folks actually goes back towards the final years of the Soviet Union.

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/688835?journalCode=jmh

Life wasn't so great if you were an African student in the Soviet Union long before that:

What Happened When Black Students Marched on Red Square in 1963

[Woody]

https://t.me/lumsrc/3187

https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1586645465461919744
https://twitter.com/SprinterMonitor/status/1586645321379094529
https://twitter.com/SprinterMonitor/status/1586645328199131136

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1585560472807305217

[dead0man]

Shoigu announces completion of partial mobilization, goal of 300,000 has been reached.

218,000 are currently at training grounds and 82,000 are in Ukraine.

- the average age of those called up as part of partial mobilization is 35 years;

feel free to correct if my math is wrong, but does this mean that for every 18 year old drafted that there is also a 52 year old?  Or two 43.5 year old?  That is NOT good for Russia.


As a 49 year old, I can attest that I would not be a very good soldier.  And I've seen videos of Russian conscripts that look older and/or in worse shape than me.  If my country was being attacked I would certainly do my part, but if my country drafted me because they invaded another country (with a good reason or not) I would be far less eager to "do my part".  I can't imagine Russian dudes my age are that different.  Seems like they would, generally speaking, be far more trouble than they are worth.  But I suppose the "experts" in charge of Russia know way more than I do.

[jaichind]

Shoigu announces completion of partial mobilization, goal of 300,000 has been reached.

218,000 are currently at training grounds and 82,000 are in Ukraine.

- the average age of those called up as part of partial mobilization is 35 years;

feel free to correct if my math is wrong, but does this mean that for every 18 year old drafted that there is also a 52 year old?  Or two 43.5 year old?  That is NOT good for Russia.


As a 49 year old, I can attest that I would not be a very good soldier.  And I've seen videos of Russian conscripts that look older and/or in worse shape than me.  If my country was being attacked I would certainly do my part, but if my country drafted me because they invaded another country (with a good reason or not) I would be far less eager to "do my part".  I can't imagine Russian dudes my age are that different.  Seems like they would, generally speaking, be far more trouble than they are worth.  But I suppose the "experts" in charge of Russia know way more than I do.

My understanding is this mobilization is focused on those with military experience that had already served in the Russian military.  Being that is the case I would expect the age being mobilized to be in the late 20s and mid-30s range but very little in the low 20s.  The average age of 35 does seem high.   I would think this is due to the need to mobilize some with military leadership or technical experience.  I would also think another batch would be those with military experience but in the early 40s that can take on logistical or guard duties and free up more combat-ready people to be sent to the front.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1586628660399841280

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Russian propaganda channels continue to spew racist stereotypes against "Black People" from earlier today...

I'm not sure about the purpose of this racism: are they admitting that "black people" are smarter and tougher warriors than the glorious, invincible Russian army?

Not quite sure why Russia has increasingly become a "Black Intolerant" country, especially considering the legacy of the Soviet Union, where it was not uncommon at all for members from "Sister Socialist Countries", to be able to easily obtain things like work, residency, and educational visas not that long ago.

I believe this phenomenon of racism against Black folks actually goes back towards the final years of the Soviet Union.

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/688835?journalCode=jmh

Still it appears to have dramatically increased under the reign of V. Putin...

https://news.illinois.edu/view/6367/294642973

Basically, Russia has increasingly become a country where ethnic stereotypes and racism have exploded in the past couple decades, accentuated by the collapse of the Soviet Union, and migration of people from the former Soviet Republics, who are still effectively 2nd class citizens.

All valid points, but bear in mind that the milbloggers probably have worse attitudes in this regard than the average Russian. Starshe Eddie is a hardcore imperialist who uses ethnic slurs in basically every other post and is so traumatised by the idea of Ukrainian resistance that he has to pretend they're struggling because of foreigners. Most of these guys on Telegram aren't actually fighting but spend all day fantasising about concentration camps and nukes; even the average Russian soldier is probably a lot better than this, let alone civilians.

The picture generally wasn't as bad, but there were echoes of this phenomenon during the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Remember that deranged pundit who argued that for every American shot during the withdrawal, an Afghan city should be nuked?

[jaichind]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11370335/Food-prices-UK-rocket-Putin-blocked-Black-Sea-grain-exports-Ukraine.html

"Food prices in UK could rocket even more after Putin blocked Black Sea grain exports from Ukraine: Hard-pressed Britons face paying even more for bread, pasta and wheat products"

[Person Man]

Russian propaganda channels continue to spew racist stereotypes against "Black People" from earlier today...

I'm not sure about the purpose of this racism: are they admitting that "black people" are smarter and tougher warriors than the glorious, invincible Russian army?

Not quite sure why Russia has increasingly become a "Black Intolerant" country, especially considering the legacy of the Soviet Union, where it was not uncommon at all for members from "Sister Socialist Countries", to be able to easily obtain things like work, residency, and educational visas not that long ago.

I believe this phenomenon of racism against Black folks actually goes back towards the final years of the Soviet Union.

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/688835?journalCode=jmh

Still it appears to have dramatically increased under the reign of V. Putin...

https://news.illinois.edu/view/6367/294642973

Basically, Russia has increasingly become a country where ethnic stereotypes and racism have exploded in the past couple decades, accentuated by the collapse of the Soviet Union, and migration of people from the former Soviet Republics, who are still effectively 2nd class citizens.

Fascists are racists. Why is this hard? Some people probably are too stupid to find Putin’s ass let alone kiss it.

[HillGoose]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11370335/Food-prices-UK-rocket-Putin-blocked-Black-Sea-grain-exports-Ukraine.html

"Food prices in UK could rocket even more after Putin blocked Black Sea grain exports from Ukraine: Hard-pressed Britons face paying even more for bread, pasta and wheat products"

sounds like it's time for NATO to step in and show the Demon Putin who's boss then

NATO military escorts for grain shipments now !

[jaichind]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11370335/Food-prices-UK-rocket-Putin-blocked-Black-Sea-grain-exports-Ukraine.html

"Food prices in UK could rocket even more after Putin blocked Black Sea grain exports from Ukraine: Hard-pressed Britons face paying even more for bread, pasta and wheat products"

sounds like it's time for NATO to step in and show the Demon Putin who's boss then

NATO military escorts for grain shipments now !

Montreux Convention of 1936 means that Turkey cannot allow Collective West military crafts into the Black Sea making such an ideal impossible to achieve.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11370335/Food-prices-UK-rocket-Putin-blocked-Black-Sea-grain-exports-Ukraine.html

"Food prices in UK could rocket even more after Putin blocked Black Sea grain exports from Ukraine: Hard-pressed Britons face paying even more for bread, pasta and wheat products"

sounds like it's time for NATO to step in and show the Demon Putin who's boss then

NATO military escorts for grain shipments now !

Montreux Convention of 1936 means that Turkey cannot allow Collective West military crafts into the Black Sea making such an ideal impossible to achieve.

The most that could be done is Turkey's navy going out of its way to guard the ships and forcing the Russians to either leave them unmolested or risk war with broader NATO.

[HillGoose]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11370335/Food-prices-UK-rocket-Putin-blocked-Black-Sea-grain-exports-Ukraine.html

"Food prices in UK could rocket even more after Putin blocked Black Sea grain exports from Ukraine: Hard-pressed Britons face paying even more for bread, pasta and wheat products"

sounds like it's time for NATO to step in and show the Demon Putin who's boss then

NATO military escorts for grain shipments now !

Montreux Convention of 1936 means that Turkey cannot allow Collective West military crafts into the Black Sea making such an ideal impossible to achieve.

ya the Budapest Memorandum was a thing too and look what happened there.

in 1991 Saddam wasn't supposed to shoot at American planes after the ceasefire agreement and he continued to do so every day afterwards for 10+ years

it seems like when the Axis of Evil just decides not to obey their agreements no one cares !

but when the good side could actually advance the cause of global democracy there are always these obstacles, smh.

[Hollywood]

The most important news of the day appears to be the surprisingly significant Russian advances in the Vuhledar Direction.    The Russians have taken all the high positions along the road from Vuhledar to Marinka, and the Ukrainian defense in Southern Donetsk is at risk of being cut-off from supplies.   
https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2022/10/30/20221030115428-49c32f1b.jpg

[NOVA Green]

A little more on the alleged Ukrainian assault on multiple Russian warships...

https://twitter.com/JohnB_Schneider/status/1586389446793912321?s=20&t=p2bQ7N...

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1586354919992279041?s=20&t=p2bQ7NddxCBXE...

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1586718038988136451?s=20&t=p2bQ7Nddx...

https://twitter.com/navalnewscom/status/1586671909688729600?s=20&t=p2bQ7Nddx...

Here is a link to an article on The War Zone (Non-Paywall)

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have since released incredible footage purportedly from aboard several unmanned surface vessels used in the attack. The video shows the purported attack run on a guided missile frigate and Russian forces engaging the USVs with machine-gun fire.


The USVs appear to be of the same design as the mystery drone boat found near Sevastopol in September.

The low-light footage clearly shows a Project 11356R Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate — one of Russia's most modern and powerful warships — underway, as well as Sevastopol harbor. There are reports that the Admiral Makarov, reportedly the Black Sea Fleet's new flagship after the Project 1164 Slava-class cruiser Moskva sank in April, was damaged in the attack. At this time, The War Zone cannot independently confirm reports about damage to the Admiral Makarov, though the low-light footage from the USV appears to show it getting very close to the missile frigate before cutting to other video of the harbor and an explosion on CCTV.

Another video released appears to corroborate separate footage that showed a Russian Mi-8'Hip' helicopter engaging a target off the coast. The USV is moving pretty quickly through the waves and heavy machine-gun fire, at one point only barely missing a small harbor patrol boat before a distant CCTV camera shows its likely demise out at sea.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-unleashes-mass-kamikaze-drone-boat-attack-on-russias-black-sea-fleet-headquarters

[NOVA Green]

Russian public opinion appears to be swinging behind starting peace talks with Ukraine:

The Kremlin might have other ideas...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1586785691706724353?s=20&t=p2bQ7NddxCBXE5...

[NOVA Green]

Here is a really good thread using geo-location from the multiple video sources available on the attacks on Russian Naval vessels in the Sevastopol Port area...

I believe there are still some debates among the gurus as to if the Admiral Makarov was the frigate in question...

Still regardless of the conclusions, it is really worth checking this thread out.

I'll just post a link to one of the twitter posts on the thread, and then I believe you will need to navigate to the main page to see all of the (31) back to back posts from the thread author...

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1586460379697348608?s=20&t=p2bQ7Nddx...

[Frodo]

A little more on the alleged Ukrainian assault on multiple Russian warships...

https://twitter.com/JohnB_Schneider/status/1586389446793912321?s=20&t=p2bQ7N...
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1586354919992279041?s=20&t=p2bQ7NddxCBXE...
https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1586718038988136451?s=20&t=p2bQ7Nddx...
https://twitter.com/navalnewscom/status/1586671909688729600?s=20&t=p2bQ7Nddx...
Here is a link to an article on The War Zone (Non-Paywall)

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have since released incredible footage purportedly from aboard several unmanned surface vessels used in the attack. The video shows the purported attack run on a guided missile frigate and Russian forces engaging the USVs with machine-gun fire.


The USVs appear to be of the same design as the mystery drone boat found near Sevastopol in September.

The low-light footage clearly shows a Project 11356R Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate — one of Russia's most modern and powerful warships — underway, as well as Sevastopol harbor. There are reports that the Admiral Makarov, reportedly the Black Sea Fleet's new flagship after the Project 1164 Slava-class cruiser Moskva sank in April, was damaged in the attack. At this time, The War Zone cannot independently confirm reports about damage to the Admiral Makarov, though the low-light footage from the USV appears to show it getting very close to the missile frigate before cutting to other video of the harbor and an explosion on CCTV.

Another video released appears to corroborate separate footage that showed a Russian Mi-8'Hip' helicopter engaging a target off the coast. The USV is moving pretty quickly through the waves and heavy machine-gun fire, at one point only barely missing a small harbor patrol boat before a distant CCTV camera shows its likely demise out at sea.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-unleashes-mass-kamikaze-drone-boat-attack-on-russias-black-sea-fleet-headquarters

Given they are already at war, the Kremlin can hardly compare this attack to the Japanese assault on Pearl Harbor or Darwin, Australia (a few months later) though I don't doubt they will do so regardless. 

[HillGoose]

The most important news of the day appears to be the surprisingly significant Russian advances in the Vuhledar Direction.    The Russians have taken all the high positions along the road from Vuhledar to Marinka, and the Ukrainian defense in Southern Donetsk is at risk of being cut-off from supplies.   
https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2022/10/30/20221030115428-49c32f1b.jpg

russian website lmao

also if u love the damn reds so much y are u even on the internet? the ruskies didn't invent the internet, America did!

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, additional reports (date unconfirmed) regarding the discontent among Russian Mobiks...

(You will need to click the translate to English on Chrome unless you read Russian).

I will bleep out the eff bombs...

The mobilized 423rd Yampolsky regiment , stationed in Naro-Fominsk near Moscow, recorded a video message about how they were thrown to the front line without training, in fact without weapons and without provisions. The video appeared on the telegram channel "Moscow against mobilization" on October 26. When, where exactly and by whom it was filmed is unknown. In the frame of the forest and about seven mobilized.



“The 423rd Yampolsky Regiment, 4th Guards Tank Division Kantemirovskaya,” the cameraman begins.

“We’re standing on the front, damn it, all our support,” a man with reddish stubble in khaki clothes throws up his hands. “No ammo, no grenades, no food, no f**king water.

Next, the camera pans to the men squatting near the makeshift hut. One of them says that they had to walk 12 kilometers for water. A bearded young man in camouflage clothing and a balaclava appears in the frame, but with an open face.

“Yes, commander of the 5th motorized rifle company of the Yampolsky Guards Regiment,” he introduces himself, then waves his hand to the side. - Here's the front. Without training, without anything sent here. We were fu**ed everywhere. From the Kantemirovskaya division they constantly fu**ed up. There is no training or provision. The people arrived in their uniforms. We bought everything with our own money, the checks remained. They lived in damp tents, in the rain, on the street. And so on until the very end. We came here, here is our provision, this is what we ourselves were able to <inaudible>. We walked <inaudible>, five kilometers there, five kilometers back. The tasks are unclear, the direction of the enemy forces is unclear, there is no communication. The shelling is endless.

https://zona.media/chronicle/249#50768

[jaichind]

Bloomberg:  "UK Winter Is More Likely to Be Colder Than Normal"

There is a 25% chance the season will be cold, 60% chance of it being near average and 15% it will be mild, according to the Met Office’s three-month outlook. “The likelihood of a colder three-month period overall is slightly greater than normal,” according to the outlook.

[windjammer]

Bloomberg:  "UK Winter Is More Likely to Be Colder Than Normal"

There is a 25% chance the season will be cold, 60% chance of it being near average and 15% it will be mild, according to the Met Office’s three-month outlook. “The likelihood of a colder three-month period overall is slightly greater than normal,” according to the outlook.

Is it only for the UK?

[jaichind]

Bloomberg:  "UK Winter Is More Likely to Be Colder Than Normal"

There is a 25% chance the season will be cold, 60% chance of it being near average and 15% it will be mild, according to the Met Office’s three-month outlook. “The likelihood of a colder three-month period overall is slightly greater than normal,” according to the outlook.

Is it only for the UK?

Yes but I have to assume it would be similar for Northern Europe. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

Seems unlikely for Germany though considering that we've recently undergone a possibly climate change-induced "October summer", with temperatures of almost 25 degrees Celsius on some days. Any form of snow would probably a true miracle.