Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[windjammer]

I fail to see why Ukraine should cede Crimea? They are expulsing the russians on their own already

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Next best thing to Ukraine joining NATO is to upgrade its post-war defenses and make them fully compatible with that of the alliance by the time it does officially become a member:

https://twitter.com/PoliticoRyan/status/1580321684967817216
I am sure this is exactly what Putin had in mind when he invaded the country....

That's what you get when you have Lloyd Austin instead of Christopher Miller running your military.

[Woody]

Woodbury says its all going swimmingly for them, though - who to believe?

Ukraine has lost around 10,000 soldiers and Russia has lost 63,000. That is just catastrophic for the Russians, it is a 6:1 kill ratio benefiting Ukraine.

Russians are still using outdated Soviet style horde attacks with massive losses. Ukraine does everything it can to keep their soldiers alive. When Ukraine runs into a fortified position, they surround it and wait for the Russians to retreat.

Imagine actually believing this.

[Hollywood]

Woodbury says its all going swimmingly for them, though - who to believe?

Ukraine has lost around 10,000 soldiers and Russia has lost 63,000. That is just catastrophic for the Russians, it is a 6:1 kill ratio benefiting Ukraine.

Russians are still using outdated Soviet style horde attacks with massive losses. Ukraine does everything it can to keep their soldiers alive. When Ukraine runs into a fortified position, they surround it and wait for the Russians to retreat.

Imagine actually believing this.

I know.  I busted out laughing when he said the "Soviet Style Horde attacks".  Is he talking about different war? Nazi Generals in WW2 propagated the myth of Russian Zombie Hordes going to battle without weapons.  They think the Russians fought every battle like 'Enemy at the Gates'?  The Germans didn't outnumbered the Soviets 2-1 until 1941.  The Germans also joked that all the Poles fought on Horseback, because they did it a couple times in the battle of Morska and the Skirmish of Krojanty.  It was merely a desperate attempt to slow the Germans down.   

Also, there's literally hundreds of videos from the Kherson Offensive.  I've seen some videos where miles of Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles are littered on the battle field after Russian airstrikes, missiles and artillery blanketed them within 'cauldrons of fire'.  Ukraine most definitely lost in excess of 10,000 men and more than a thousand vehicles in this one direction that the US claims the Russians are holding with 10,000 to 20,000 trained Soldiers. 
https://rumble.com/v1ncd4e-10.13.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1n0f80-10.09.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Surreal footage of a drone apparently shooting another drone down.

https://www.twitter.com/serhiyprytula/status/1580490706560626688
Drones with anti-air capabilities have existed for a while but this is the first public evidence of it being attempted and succeeding. That it’s being done with an old-school dogfighting gun attached to a commercial Chinese drone makes it even more remarkable.

The first attempt at this was made by an American Predator drone with a Stinger missile while enforcing the Saddam-era Iraqi no fly zone. The attacked Iraqi jet evaded the missile and scored one of the few air-to-air kills Iraq achieved against the US.

Edit: the footage isn’t that clear but one drone may have rammed another to down it rather than using a gun..

[CumbrianLefty]

If people want some amusement, they can search out Hollywood's posts at the start of this conflict.

[Woody]

Ivanhrad has fallen, Opytne might still be in the hands of UA

https://twitter.com/Guderian_Xaba/status/1580491013864697856
https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1580485391794130945
https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1580500176472395776

[Woody]

Woodbury says its all going swimmingly for them, though - who to believe?

It's a war, there is more than one front, no? Not everywhere is going to be same.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I fail to see why Ukraine should cede Crimea? They are expulsing the russians on their own already

Let’s assume - and this is still a huge assumption - that Ukraine can retake and hold all of its land. “Total victory.” What then?

Russia may well continue shelling and missile strikes (and such an armed conflict will likely prevent entry into anything like the EU or NATO). It’s even more unlikely to simply return the many kidnapped Ukrainians, who may (eventually) outnumber the pro-Ukrainian population currently in Crimea. The rationale would be something like this: ending the war/conceding the captured Ukrainians means accepting defeat and therefore potentially dethrones those in charge of Russia, so the war must be continued regardless of Russia’s interests.

Ukraine is not going to stop be able to put a stop to that for many years, if at all, because it will be a very long time before they’re remotely capable of marching all the way to Moscow or Sakhalin. So: it faces a choice. Search for an off-ramp allowing a return of its people and an end to the bombings, or prioritise land over the people trapped in Russia and a potential end to the violence.

This is where the inevitable “But conceding land would encourage further violence!” comes in. I think that applies to territory taken since February 23, but Crimea was lost years ago without much in the way of violence (besides the threat of violence, of course). I’m not sure conceding it would provide the same perverse incentives for future national leaders considering invasions. There’s definitely still a risk, but that risk is probably worth taking depending on the off-ramp, especially when one considers that the alternative involves condemning many kidnapped people (including children) to a miserable lot in Siberia. It’s not an easy decision, but I were Ukrainian, I think I’d feel more loyalty to my people than the land.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1580222391296221186

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Woodbury says its all going swimmingly for them, though - who to believe?

It's a war, there is more than one front, no? Not everywhere is going to be same.

Of course, but these fronts aren’t isolated. Russia’s progress around Pisky and Bakhmut has been practically pyrrhic, especially compared to the recent Ukrainian advances (or their own in the Donbas up until the capture of Lysychansk). It isn’t clear that Wagner will be able to take the city and even if they do, the campaign will represent the pitfalls of using a PMC to do an army’s job. Until about a week ago, Wagner broadcast that they remained focused on Bakhmut and refused to reinforce the collapsing lines in Kharkiv and northern Donetsk/Luhansk. This was happening because they were getting paid to assault Bakhmut and the fortunes of the Russian army didn’t really matter to them beyond that. Their focus on the city may well have cost Russia a much large/more populated chunk of Ukraine.

It looks like the current Ukrainian offensives may be culminating and I must reiterate my expectation that the Russian mobilisation will have a significant impact over the next few months. Nevertheless, these are currently unknown quantities - and in the publicly known quantities, the situation looks pretty grim for Russia.

[Lord Halifax]

I fail to see why Ukraine should cede Crimea? They are expulsing the russians on their own already

Let’s assume - and this is still a huge assumption - that Ukraine can retake and hold all of its land. “Total victory.” What then?

Russia may well continue shelling and missile strikes (and such an armed conflict will likely prevent entry into anything like the EU or NATO). It’s even more unlikely to simply return the many kidnapped Ukrainians, who may (eventually) outnumber the pro-Ukrainian population currently in Crimea. The rationale would be something like this: ending the war/conceding the captured Ukrainians means accepting defeat and therefore potentially dethrones those in charge of Russia, so the war must be continued regardless of Russia’s interests.

Ukraine is not going to stop be able to put a stop to that for many years, if at all, because it will be a very long time before they’re remotely capable of marching all the way to Moscow or Sakhalin. So: it faces a choice. Search for an off-ramp allowing a return of its people and an end to the bombings, or prioritise land over the people trapped in Russia and a potential end to the violence.

This is where the inevitable “But conceding land would encourage further violence!” comes in. I think that applies to territory taken since February 23, but Crimea was lost years ago without much in the way of violence (besides the threat of violence, of course). I’m not sure conceding it would provide the same perverse incentives for future national leaders considering invasions. There’s definitely still a risk, but that risk is probably worth taking depending on the off-ramp, especially when one considers that the alternative involves condemning many kidnapped people (including children) to a miserable lot in Siberia. It’s not an easy decision, but I were Ukrainian, I think I’d feel more loyalty to my people than the land.

But if Russia keeps Crimea it'll always be able to attack the soft underbelly of Ukraine, and it'll get very valuable off-shore natural gas fields. 

Ukraine doesn't need to "march on Moscow" to stop the war, they'll need the ability to threaten Belgorod and Rostov and other neighboring Russian territories, and that's not completely unrealistic.

[Lechasseur]

Next time Azerbaijan tries to annex southern Armenia, I guess the world can follow Armenia's example and "abstain". What point is there in kowtowing to Moscow now when they have seen that CSTO is meaningless? Even the Russia lovers of Serbia voted to condemn.

https://twitter.com/patriot_singles/status/1580295767977119744

Did it come to mind to you that Russia is probably exercizing pressure/threats against Armenia?

Like this is just victime blaming.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I fail to see why Ukraine should cede Crimea? They are expulsing the russians on their own already

Let’s assume - and this is still a huge assumption - that Ukraine can retake and hold all of its land. “Total victory.” What then?

Russia may well continue shelling and missile strikes (and such an armed conflict will likely prevent entry into anything like the EU or NATO). It’s even more unlikely to simply return the many kidnapped Ukrainians, who may (eventually) outnumber the pro-Ukrainian population currently in Crimea. The rationale would be something like this: ending the war/conceding the captured Ukrainians means accepting defeat and therefore potentially dethrones those in charge of Russia, so the war must be continued regardless of Russia’s interests.

Ukraine is not going to stop be able to put a stop to that for many years, if at all, because it will be a very long time before they’re remotely capable of marching all the way to Moscow or Sakhalin. So: it faces a choice. Search for an off-ramp allowing a return of its people and an end to the bombings, or prioritise land over the people trapped in Russia and a potential end to the violence.

This is where the inevitable “But conceding land would encourage further violence!” comes in. I think that applies to territory taken since February 23, but Crimea was lost years ago without much in the way of violence (besides the threat of violence, of course). I’m not sure conceding it would provide the same perverse incentives for future national leaders considering invasions. There’s definitely still a risk, but that risk is probably worth taking depending on the off-ramp, especially when one considers that the alternative involves condemning many kidnapped people (including children) to a miserable lot in Siberia. It’s not an easy decision, but I were Ukrainian, I think I’d feel more loyalty to my people than the land.

But if Russia keeps Crimea it'll always be able to attack the soft underbelly of Ukraine, and it'll get very valuable off-shore natural gas fields. 

Ukraine doesn't need to "march on Moscow" to stop the war, they'll need the ability to threaten Belgorod and Rostov and other neighboring Russian territories, and that's not completely unrealistic.

They’ll always be able to attack Ukraine. There is some debate about whether the attack from Crimea could have worked if the defence of the south had been properly strengthened - in any case, an underbelly can be strengthened.

Losing the cities/infrastructure/resources will be painful but gas should be a depreciating asset.

Threatening Belgorod and Rostov might not work in the long term - it isn’t working so far. Threatening them with invasion, even if it didn’t backfire, also might not work. If Putin thinks losing Belgorod and continuing the war is less likely to dethrone him than accepting defeat, he will cede Belgorod.

[Virginiá]

Russian fronts receiving orders to stop offensive ops temporarily due to extremely poor morale and desertion rates.

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1580413345341276161

Bakhmut may see a short reprieve from Russia's hordes in this case.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1580506595087486978

[Woody]

Ukraine has lost 3 jets the past 24 hours. Reportedly during the hunt for Iranian Shahed-drones. Two in Poltava and one in Vinnytsia.. according to UA officials, all of them crashed

https://t.me/spravdi/19041
https://t.me/chanel24/58065

https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1580530867822219266
https://twitter.com/ukrainewar24/status/1580468395916812288
https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1580265912493830145

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1580506595087486978

I remember that video. This was filmed years ago.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1580506595087486978

lmao literally was just coming here to post this

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/DemeryUK/status/1580266670194446338?s=20&t=vtpnOWmno7OOz...
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580242495492890624?s=20&t=vtpnOW...

Unfortunate predicament dealing with these types of threats.

Acc to Western Intelligence, the Iranian suicide drone is very cheap, which is not a surprise considering it's a flying Dorito powered by a lawnmower engine.

The rockets being used to shoot them down are much costlier and in shorter supply.

I do however assume that in some time UA will innovate & develop other, more cost effective methods to deal with it.

Kamikaze drones in general are cheap, but the Shahed-136 is likely a fair bit more expensive than your average loitering munition because it can travel hundreds of kilometres and packs a moderate payload. It's effectively a bargain bin cruise missile, and Iran may be charging a markup price for Russia to buy them.

What they are being intercepted with is not the exorbitantly priced Patriot missile*, but most likely an air-to-air missile from Ukraine's domestic stock (including Soviet and Polish-donated missiles). Given the Russian air force's reluctance to wage an air superiority campaign for the last few months, there can't be that many other uses for such munitions. Most Russian jets which have been shot down seemed to have been downed by ground-based AA rather than Ukraine's rather limited number of planes.

*But this is where your post is arguably most relevant. Calls for long-range, ground-based AD to fight poorly used Russian missiles ignore how expensive this kind of support would be - within the limited aid budgets set aside for Ukraine, there are more cost-effective expenditures than Patriot missiles.

This was bound to happen.

Chasing lawnmowers with jets is not worth it...

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1580552518446493698

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1580552532061196289

[Storr]

Korkino is has a population of only 34,000 people. Notably it's the hometown of one of the very few Russian athletes to publicly speak out against Putin, New York Rangers NHL player Artemi Panarin.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1580466203562102784?s=20&t=W9RGUte8...


The comments (I'm surprised they left the comments section open) are not great for Putin:

This one got more than 50 upvotes: "And this is only one meager military enlistment office[,] officially confirmed. And how many are already unconfirmed or missing - by 5 should be multiplied or by 10?
How long?!
And most importantly - for what?!"

Edit: This comment got 107 upvotes: "How did they die on their own, if they still have to undergo training for a month before being sent there?"

At some point (after 773 comments had been made...now it says there are only 771. I guess some of them are being deleted) the comments section was closed.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1580561782493827073
But seriously guys Bakmut is gonna fall any day

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Sven7966/status/1580556724288729088?s=20&t=0RRvNrXFrAqDp...

[Red Velvet]

Woodbury says its all going swimmingly for them, though - who to believe?

Ukraine has lost around 10,000 soldiers and Russia has lost 63,000. That is just catastrophic for the Russians, it is a 6:1 kill ratio benefiting Ukraine.

Russians are still using outdated Soviet style horde attacks with massive losses. Ukraine does everything it can to keep their soldiers alive. When Ukraine runs into a fortified position, they surround it and wait for the Russians to retreat.

Imagine actually believing this.

People will believe what they want to believe, it’s pointless. Even if they know they’re wrong, they will say it’s to keep optimism or something

Not counting civilian deaths, Ukrainian forces death estimates vary from:

10k - estimated by Ukrainian government
61k - estimated by Russian government

Russian forces deaths are:

63k - estimated by Ukraine government
20k - estimated by US government
6k - estimated by Russian government

In a war, naturally both sides will overestimate the opponents loss and underestimate their own, so the truth probably lies somewhere in-between.

For instance, the US number (referent to up to August) is probably more realistic for the Russian estimate for example.

Same goes for Ukraine death estimates but no true neutral third party is keeping track of it. But it’s totally between 10k and 61k. And that doesn’t count the civilian losses.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Russian fronts receiving orders to stop offensive ops temporarily due to extremely poor morale and desertion rates.

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1580413345341276161
Bakhmut may see a short reprieve from Russia's hordes in this case.

Yeah, this makes me somewhat more sympathetic to the Russian conscripts. It isn't like choosing not to fight was an option, so refusing orders is about the best thing any individual Russian soldier can do right now if they recognize the futility and immoral nature of their cause.

Ukraine needs to keep treating conscripts with humanitarian care to encourage more to defect; and publicize a general amnesty for anyone who defects. It's vastly clear at this point that the majority of Russian soldiers are being whipped to fight by their ring leader, Putin, and we need to offer them a better path.