Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Coldstream]

Not sure where the argument of the Russian state collapsing a ala 1991 Soviet Union comes from. With the exception of Chechnya there’s virtually nowhere that has any practical autonomy or a private power base to launch independence from. And whilst there’s a non-zero chance if Putin gets deposed and his successor sues for peace that Chechnya might do a UDI - I can’t see anyone else who could/would follow suit.

[windjammer]

Chechen elite fighters have now returned from their vacation and are on the frontlines. Vows for another Mariupol, Lysychansk, Popasna, etc.. for Ukrainian fighters. And promises to cleanse and liberate all of Ukraine from "Nazism" and "Satanism"

https://twitter.com/siadevinci/status/1569207799468417026

Tik tok army!

[CumbrianLefty]

Not sure where the argument of the Russian state collapsing a ala 1991 Soviet Union comes from. With the exception of Chechnya there’s virtually nowhere that has any practical autonomy or a private power base to launch independence from. And whilst there’s a non-zero chance if Putin gets deposed and his successor sues for peace that Chechnya might do a UDI - I can’t see anyone else who could/would follow suit.

Yes, there was talk of this happening to Russia post-1991 but it never did.

(and never really looked like doing, more importantly)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Now that Ukraine has demonstrated its capability to, in theory, win the war it has stoked a new political debate in Germany to supply the country with further weapons systems, up to and including the Leopard 2 main battle tank. The downside is, as usual, that we are gonna debate this for the next couple of weeks and when a decision is finally reached it will take another three months or so until the first tanks actually reach Ukraine, owing in large parts to an inefficient military bureaucracy and a generally substandard defence minister.

Do Germans feel any sense of embarrassment about this? I have never understood very well my Teutonic cousins, and still don't.

Political pollsters usually don't ask what people's emotions are, but according to a Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll from September 9, 40% support expanding military aid to Ukraine, 30% support maintaining military aid at current levels, and 24% support reducing the military aid to Ukraine.

Judging from personal experience - for example a somewhat heated debate I had with a friend of mine a couple of weeks ago - it can be quite a polarizing issue. Which means both proponents and opponents of supporting Ukraine with weapons tend to feel strongly about it.

The point our Austrian forum member has made in this thread is also valid though... no M1A2 Abrams tanks have been supplied to Ukraine yet nor do plans exist to do so in the future. This in fact forms the basis of the Olaf Scholz doctrine only to supply Ukraine with weapons systems in conjunction and accordance with other leading NATO members. Which is why Germany has supplied Ukraine with only artillery and anti-aircraft tanks, at this point.

So far, the renewed debate within the German government on delivering main battle tanks to Ukraine seems to be conducted along the usual lines... FDP and Greens are in favour, SPD is more reluctant. Nothing particularly new at this end.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to the Russian puppet administration in Kharkiv, Ukrainian troops in the counteroffensive outnumber the Russian ones at a ratio of 8 to 1.

Link to article here:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1569250806150438913

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

According to the Russian puppet administration in Kharkiv, Ukrainian troops in the counteroffensive outnumber the Russian ones at a ratio of 8 to 1.

Link to article here:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1569250806150438913

Good lord.
I knew things were moving in an unfavorable direction for the Russians and I have long been rather bullish about them to some extent, but when Russian officials aren't able to sugarcoat the situation, that's telling as to how bad things are at the moment for them. How much ground can Ukraine gain? At what point does this jeopardize their hold over Kherson? There ought to be more discussion about what possibilities there are for how this helps Ukraine on other fronts.

[rc18]

According to the Russian puppet administration in Kharkiv, Ukrainian troops in the counteroffensive outnumber the Russian ones at a ratio of 8 to 1.

Link to article here:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1569250806150438913

Well, they're hardly going to claim they were sent packing by a force half the size of theirs now are they?

[Torie]

Chechen elite fighters have now returned from their vacation and are on the frontlines. Vows for another Mariupol, Lysychansk, Popasna, etc.. for Ukrainian fighters. And promises to cleanse and liberate all of Ukraine from "Nazism" and "Satanism"

https://twitter.com/siadevinci/status/1569207799468417026

Where did you guys go for vacation?

[Woody]

Moment the Kharkiv TEC-5 power plant blew up.

https://t.me/rybar/38664

[2952-0-0]

Not sure where the argument of the Russian state collapsing a ala 1991 Soviet Union comes from. With the exception of Chechnya there’s virtually nowhere that has any practical autonomy or a private power base to launch independence from. And whilst there’s a non-zero chance if Putin gets deposed and his successor sues for peace that Chechnya might do a UDI - I can’t see anyone else who could/would follow suit.

The Russian state likely won't suddenly collapse into ethnically-based nation states as in 1991, for reasons you mentioned. More likely is that the gradual weakening of Moscow's ability to control the regions - as well as its loss of credibility on the battlefield - will lead to regional leaders gradually asserting more power themselves out of necessity. And that will, over time, lead to a de facto breakup of the Russian Federation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzCoJXxb5xI&t

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1569260715420024835

[Logical]

According to the Russian puppet administration in Kharkiv, Ukrainian troops in the counteroffensive outnumber the Russian ones at a ratio of 8 to 1.

Link to article here:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1569250806150438913

Well, they're hardly going to claim they were sent packing by a force half the size of theirs now are they?

You would think that Russians of all people understood the dangers of entrusting your flanks to poorly equipped and motivated troops from your puppet states. So much for making WWII their state religion.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Also, there are rumors of a third task force ready to strike towards Melitopol and try to make Kherson into a truly grand pocket. Might actually exist, might be deliberate rumors to try and spread the panic of the rout southwards.

The Wagner Group and Girkin spread these rumours publicly before the Ukrainians did. If it's a psyop, it's a psyop involving manouevres on the ground.

Girkin reminds me of Captain America in Generation Kill in that he flips out whenever the Ukrainians do anything, so it's quite possible he's created Joint Force Melitopol in his own mind and other sources are just picking up on him.

[Torie]

How many districts do the two cities have? I am looking for the denominator to 18.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/fo60501445/status/1569202562775281667?s=20&t=ctmMknWBoyI...

[2952-0-0]

How many districts do the two cities have? I am looking for the denominator to 18.

Both cities are divided into districts, and in turn sub-districts, though the names of these two levels are different.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Administrative_divisions_of_Moscow

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Administrative_divisions_of_Saint_Petersburg

It's notable that the first local council in St. Petersburg that accused Putin of treason is in the very heart of the city, that contains its most important historical attractions. The first local council in Moscow that called for Putin to step aside is in the city's southwest, the location of its most prestigious universities and research institutes.

This indicates that, so far, it's urban intellectuals and liberals who are spearheading the emerging anti-Putin movement.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/TarasBerezovets/status/1569315388391063554?s=20&t=ctmMkn...
 
The famous Sviatohirsk monastery is in the background:
https://twitter.com/papandopoolo/status/1569277595274838016?s=20&t=ctmMknWBo...

[Torie]

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If the negotiations were going anywhere, why would Operational Command "South" announce them? This strikes me as a psyop meant to demoralise Russian troops rather than a true statement.

[Torie]

My partner Dan was listening to this while lounging in the dungeon bed in the throne room with the dog this morning, and told me he found it fascinating. I asked him if it went back to the days of Catherine the Great or something. He said no, actually it went back to Athens. Those Athenians got around.  

Post-Colonial Ukraine: The Meanings of Resistance

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCART2T7Ei4&t=5s

[AZdude]

We've been seeing some really heartwarming videos of Ukrainian civilians welcoming Ukrainian soldiers who are liberating them.  Assuming the amazing success of the AFU continues, I would love to see what the civilian response would be if they recapture territory held by the LPR or DPR for the past 8 years.

As much as I want to see Ukraine victorious and returned to its 2014 borders, it would terrible if some sort of insurgency develops in Donbass or Crimea.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1569272344207564801

[Oryxslayer]

If the negotiations were going anywhere, why would Operational Command "South" announce them? This strikes me as a psyop meant to demoralise Russian troops rather than a true statement.

Wouldn't be surprised as well, but there is talk that the Kherson pocket ends via surrendered withdraw rather than death. which wouldn't be a bad thing even though many call for retribution, the example from history on my mind is Vicksburg - even though that is from the early days of industrial war. Central Command will almost always want pockets to fight to the last man and try to reunite with the main front, so surrender by local command in opposition to the political leaders hams overall morale. It hands over all the arms, which arguably is more important when you are on the wrong side of a war of attrition. It sends a bunch of people home with bad opinions of the enemy leadership. Most importantly, it prevents a long industrial siege of a urban city, saving civilians and preventing something I have already described as one of the horrors I would only wish on the worst countries from history.

[DINGO Joe]

We've been seeing some really heartwarming videos of Ukrainian civilians welcoming Ukrainian soldiers who are liberating them.  Assuming the amazing success of the AFU continues, I would love to see what the civilian response would be if they recapture territory held by the LPR or DPR for the past 8 years.

As much as I want to see Ukraine victorious and returned to its 2014 borders, it would terrible if some sort of insurgency develops in Donbass or Crimea.

Well Donbass and Luhansk have been almost entirely stripped of their male population for cannon fodder and it seems that Russians and collaborators are fleeing so I don't know who would make up any meaningful resistance. 

[Person Man]

We've been seeing some really heartwarming videos of Ukrainian civilians welcoming Ukrainian soldiers who are liberating them.  Assuming the amazing success of the AFU continues, I would love to see what the civilian response would be if they recapture territory held by the LPR or DPR for the past 8 years.

As much as I want to see Ukraine victorious and returned to its 2014 borders, it would terrible if some sort of insurgency develops in Donbass or Crimea.

Well Donbass and Luhansk have been almost entirely stripped of their male population for cannon fodder and it seems that Russians and collaborators are fleeing so I don't know who would make up any meaningful resistance. 

So the Russians solved those problems for the good guys.