Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Frodo]

With Ukraine on the verge of winning its war of independence from Russia on the battlefield, now is a good time to contemplate a post-war landscape:

It’s Time to Prepare for a Ukrainian Victory

[Person Man]

State TV starts to draw closer to reality. Negotiations or mobilisation?

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1569070513909022720
Also featuring criticism of the intelligence services. Aligns with Kadyrov claiming Putin must have been misinformed by someone. The fear of windows appears to be waning.

Would they even be able to mobilize in time?

[DINGO Joe]

Big Serge is now Twitter famous

https://mobile.twitter.com/russophileLs/status/1568992820161019907

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Big Serge is now Twitter famous

https://mobile.twitter.com/russophileLs/status/1568992820161019907

One small step for man, one giant leap for Sergkind.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Big Serge is now Twitter famous

https://mobile.twitter.com/russophileLs/status/1568992820161019907

Are we sure this is the same guy?

[Omega21]

State TV starts to draw closer to reality. Negotiations or mobilisation?

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1569070513909022720
Also featuring criticism of the intelligence services. Aligns with Kadyrov claiming Putin must have been misinformed by someone. The fear of windows appears to be waning.

Would they even be able to mobilize in time?

There would at least be a 4 month latency from the day of announcement.

At least a month to organize and for the first drafted men to start training, followed by at least 3 months of training.

Since many have already completed mandatory service, they do already at least know how to hold an AK and shoot, but thats obviously not enough on the UA battlefield.

[Torie]

Big Serge is now Twitter famous

https://mobile.twitter.com/russophileLs/status/1568992820161019907

Are we sure this is the same guy?

Nyet.

[Person Man]

Big Serge is now Twitter famous

https://mobile.twitter.com/russophileLs/status/1568992820161019907

Well, he said that then. Will he be this unconcerned in a week?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1568026439382929409?s=20&t=xY13g2o4pi6...

With how slow offensive progress has been for both sides since the initial Russian onslaught, it is quite incredible how much the map has changed in just twenty-four hours:

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1568389026884853762?s=20&t=l6BoT_O6AEE...

Update:

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1568755355592626176?s=20&t=AjY-WjXFMcX...

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1569115735900753921?s=20&t=K0PugVmP2UI...

[Storr]

Free T-80 tanks, to a good home:
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1568881357215997952?s=20&t=TA9EmSYT9yiph...

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1569083044480557056?s=20&t=x5pvXL6ZtiK8z...

[2952-0-0]

As if losing its status as a world superpower after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact wasn't enough, Russia is done as a Great Power too -its unmitigated failure in Ukraine has merely sealed the deal:

The Russian Army Is Losing A Battalion Every Day As Ukrainian Counterattacks Accelerate

China can’t also be happy about this. Both big world evils show their militaries are not on par with the US.

China might not be unhappy. If Russia is weakened enough, then Russia is minted as a Chinese client state.
A weakened Russia would be good for the world. But be careful what you wish for.

Oh, no, Xi Jinping must be the most nervous (about this war) person in the world outside Russia. He definitely feels terrified, terrified, terrified, about what has happened in Ukraine.

Putin had spent hundreds of billions of $, and over a decade, in rebuilding the Russian army, and he genuinely came to believe it was mighty enough to take Kyiv in three days. Now we know that the Russian military had been completely lying to him for so long. Given that's the case, if I was Xi Jinping, how would I know that my own military hasn't also been lying to me in a similar way? An army that is able to lie about its capabilities to the leader is also able to lie about its true political leanings. And if that's the case, how secure would I feel about my own power? Not at all. I wonder how much Xi Jinping's blood pressure has risen as a result of the Ukraine disaster.

[2952-0-0]

I wonder how Putin will enjoy his new role as a subordinate of Xi.

He won't. At this rate, the Russian army will cease to exist, and Russia as a centralized nation will fall apart into a collection of warring fiefdoms. Maybe Putin will still remain in the Kremlin, but as little more than a Grand Duke of Muscovy. All the foreign powers would be vultures picking apart the Russian carcass, and supporting one warlord over the other. Ironically, that would resemble Qing Dynasty China after its loss to Japan in 1895.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As if losing its status as a world superpower after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact wasn't enough, Russia is done as a Great Power too -its unmitigated failure in Ukraine has merely sealed the deal:

The Russian Army Is Losing A Battalion Every Day As Ukrainian Counterattacks Accelerate

China can’t also be happy about this. Both big world evils show their militaries are not on par with the US.

China might not be unhappy. If Russia is weakened enough, then Russia is minted as a Chinese client state.
A weakened Russia would be good for the world. But be careful what you wish for.

Oh, no, Xi Jinping must be the most nervous (about this war) person in the world outside Russia. He definitely feels terrified, terrified, terrified, about what has happened in Ukraine.

Putin had spent hundreds of billions of $, and over a decade, in rebuilding the Russian army, and he genuinely came to believe it was mighty enough to take Kyiv in three days. Now we know that the Russian military had been completely lying to him for so long. Given that's the case, if I was Xi Jinping, how would I know that my own military hasn't also been lying to me in a similar way? An army that is able to lie about its capabilities to the leader is also able to lie about its true political leanings. And if that's the case, how secure would I feel about my own power? Not at all. I wonder how much Xi Jinping's blood pressure has risen as a result of the Ukraine disaster.

Ok, you have a point regarding Xi Jinping's worries. It would be true that there would be domestic concerns to worry about.
Nonetheless, he would still likely be somewhat happy seeing Russia positioned to become a Chinese puppet/client/vassal/whatever you call it.

[Stranger in a strange land]

It seems Russia's retaliation has all of unoccupied Ukraine without power

That should just increase the Ukrainians’ resolve. If Russians are doing this to them now, imagine what they will be doing to them if they are able to overrun enough of their country. And if they are able to do that, imagine what they then will do.

I am 100% confident this is just a photoshop of the Earth at Night composite that NASA did like a decade ago.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_earth_at_night.jpg

Apologies if that is the case

Accepted if and only if you reveal the provenance of the fake image. And of course it's fake because it is at once too perfect and a very inefficient way to power a very large nation. It would be like Niagra Falls powering the entire east coast.

The map is too "perfect" to be real, as others have noted, also because it doesn't jibe with the reality that power grids don't adhere exactly to national borders, and they especially wouldn't in Ukraine, which was part of the USSR until 1991. Also note that we've had reports of outages in Belgorod, which is fully lit up on that map.

[Virginiá]

Regarding renewed pressure for tanks and other western weapon deliveries long held up for various reasons (seeing this a lot today on Twitter too), I'm tempted to say now that Ukraine doesn't need a quick infusion of western tanks right now, they could instead benefit more from NATO facilitating the transfer of Poland and Slovakia's MiGs to Ukrainian control ASAP, which is something both these countries have already offered before, provided they are compensated in some way (or traded F-16s, in PL's case). I believe Slovakia is already doing this, or at least discussing it, but anti-radiation missiles from the US have made close air support missions possible and relevant again for Ukraine, and the AFU has been organized enough to move air defense along with their offensive. NATO should find it in themselves to get over the idea of 'Russian escalation' at this point, because if Russia is able and willing to escalate, they are going to do so in the near future, given the collapse of the Northeastern front.

Russia is leaving so many heavy weapons and ammunition behind that Ukraine has that need temporarily met. What they aren't finding in previously-occupied territory is air fields full of fighter jets and helicopters. Delivery of the IRIS-T and NASAMS air defense systems DE/US promised would be optimal as fast as possible as well, since Russia is liable to continue long range strikes given their deteriorating situation on the battlefield.

[2952-0-0]

Ok, you have a point regarding Xi Jinping's worries. It would be true that there would be domestic concerns to worry about.
Nonetheless, he would still likely be somewhat happy seeing Russia positioned to become a Chinese puppet/client/vassal/whatever you call it.

For rulers of large, continent-sized landmasses - let them be China, Russia, the USA, or India, domestic considerations are always dominant, and will always override any foreign plans the leaders might have. And that holds true whether the nation is a democracy or a dictatorship. That's why, for instance, Joe Biden made the decision to throw Afghanistan to the Taliban and focus on passing his infrastructure bills.

Xi Jinping in such a scenario will have to thoroughly shake up the military leadership, and put any plans he might have about Taiwan on hold until he feels secure enough (which might be never). If he makes the wrong moves here, he will be deposed in a palace coup, and would be lucky to not be secretly executed. At best, China will become one of several vultures fighting over the Russian carcass, but such a Russia would serve primarily as a warning to the leadership in Beijing on how things can go wrong.

To give a little history tidbit, the CCP was shaken to the core as it watched the Soviet Union collapse in two years. The CCP then used the chaos of Yeltsin's Russia as a domestic propaganda tool: "if the CCP fails, China will become as chaotic as Russia". A second collapse of Russia will cause a lot of emotions to be felt in China, but "yippee! Now we can have Russia's vast resources to ourselves!" will be the very last one to be felt.

[Devout Centrist]

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

All time classic post

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ok, you have a point regarding Xi Jinping's worries. It would be true that there would be domestic concerns to worry about.
Nonetheless, he would still likely be somewhat happy seeing Russia positioned to become a Chinese puppet/client/vassal/whatever you call it.

For rulers of large, continent-sized landmasses - let them be China, Russia, the USA, or India, domestic considerations are always dominant, and will always override any foreign plans the leaders might have. And that holds true whether the nation is a democracy or a dictatorship. That's why, for instance, Joe Biden made the decision to throw Afghanistan to the Taliban and focus on passing his infrastructure bills.

Xi Jinping in such a scenario will have to thoroughly shake up the military leadership, and put any plans he might have about Taiwan on hold until he feels secure enough (which might be never). If he makes the wrong moves here, he will be deposed in a palace coup, and would be lucky to not be secretly executed. At best, China will become one of several vultures fighting over the Russian carcass, but such a Russia would serve primarily as a warning to the leadership in Beijing on how things can go wrong.

To give a little history tidbit, the CCP was shaken to the core as it watched the Soviet Union collapse in two years. The CCP then used the chaos of Yeltsin's Russia as a domestic propaganda tool: "if the CCP fails, China will become as chaotic as Russia". A second collapse of Russia will cause a lot of emotions to be felt in China, but "yippee! Now we can have Russia's vast resources to ourselves!" will be the very last one to be felt.

It seems that there is an optimal zone here for Xi.
Russia weakened is good, Russia weakened too much is not as useful for China.
There's a sweet spot where Russia does poorly enough that it has to submit to China, but not so poorly that its internal stability is not ever threatened.

[Storr]

It appears that the subject rail line is about to be cut, with Ukraine's forces already 20 miles east of the Oskol River. From the NYT:


7 minutes ago

Carly Olson
Ukraine’s military said in its evening update that Russian troops “hastily” withdrew from the town of Svatove in the Luhansk region. The claim — which could not be independently verified — came after the military governor of the Luhansk region, Serhiy Haidai, described “intense” combat and said the Ukrainian military appeared poised to seize the town.



It appears to me that "the plan" now is to try to retain the land bridge to Crimea, and declare victory. Good luck with that.

More from Haidai.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1569157423558004736?s=20&t=KS_EA4sFvr...

[Oryxslayer]

Ok, you have a point regarding Xi Jinping's worries. It would be true that there would be domestic concerns to worry about.
Nonetheless, he would still likely be somewhat happy seeing Russia positioned to become a Chinese puppet/client/vassal/whatever you call it.

For rulers of large, continent-sized landmasses - let them be China, Russia, the USA, or India, domestic considerations are always dominant, and will always override any foreign plans the leaders might have. And that holds true whether the nation is a democracy or a dictatorship. That's why, for instance, Joe Biden made the decision to throw Afghanistan to the Taliban and focus on passing his infrastructure bills.

Xi Jinping in such a scenario will have to thoroughly shake up the military leadership, and put any plans he might have about Taiwan on hold until he feels secure enough (which might be never). If he makes the wrong moves here, he will be deposed in a palace coup, and would be lucky to not be secretly executed. At best, China will become one of several vultures fighting over the Russian carcass, but such a Russia would serve primarily as a warning to the leadership in Beijing on how things can go wrong.

To give a little history tidbit, the CCP was shaken to the core as it watched the Soviet Union collapse in two years. The CCP then used the chaos of Yeltsin's Russia as a domestic propaganda tool: "if the CCP fails, China will become as chaotic as Russia". A second collapse of Russia will cause a lot of emotions to be felt in China, but "yippee! Now we can have Russia's vast resources to ourselves!" will be the very last one to be felt.

It seems that there is an optimal zone here for Xi.
Russia weakened is good, Russia weakened too much is not as useful for China.
There's a sweet spot where Russia does poorly enough that it has to submit to China, but not so poorly that its internal stability is not ever threatened.

Can I just also add that we are talking about Xi as if it will be Xi in charge of the CCP this time next year. After everything that has happened over the past months in China thanks to Xi's prioritization of his own position, it would not be a big reach to see the CCP get someone new on top who therefore has the political capital to blame past faults on Xi - including various parts of the Russian policy if deemed necessary.

[2952-0-0]

It seems that there is an optimal zone here for Xi.
Russia weakened is good, Russia weakened too much is not as useful for China.
There's a sweet spot where Russia does poorly enough that it has to submit to China, but not so poorly that its internal stability is not ever threatened.

This assumes that somehow Beijing is so powerful that it could decide facts on the ground in Moscow - an incredibly arrogant assumption. If Russia collapses into a failed state, it will do so regardless of the desires of any external actor.

The war in Ukraine is already a disaster for Russia, and we're now witnessing the collapse of the Russian army in real time. More than that, we're witnessing the death rattle of the image we've had of a glorious and fearless Russia. This is already raising doubts in Xi's head about whether he has been lied to by his own army - and all that implies. It has also made a mockery of CCP propaganda that western democracies are too weak to confront autocracies. China's elite are also shocked by the speed and scale to which the western powers snatched away the luxuries previously enjoyed by the Russian elite. Note that, I'm referring to the past and present - events that have already happened and are happening. The Ukraine disaster won't by itself cause a crisis within the CCP, but it will certainly raise the sense of unease and tension that has been building up in the CCP halls of power. The last thing anyone will think of, is somehow micromanaging Russia's internal politics - which historically has had a 100% failure rate for foreign powers.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems that there is an optimal zone here for Xi.
Russia weakened is good, Russia weakened too much is not as useful for China.
There's a sweet spot where Russia does poorly enough that it has to submit to China, but not so poorly that its internal stability is not ever threatened.

This assumes that somehow Beijing is so powerful that it could decide facts on the ground in Moscow - an incredibly arrogant assumption. If Russia collapses into a failed state, it will do so regardless of the desires of any external actor.

The war in Ukraine is already a disaster for Russia, and we're now witnessing the collapse of the Russian army in real time. More than that, we're witnessing the death rattle of the image we've had of a glorious and fearless Russia. This is already raising doubts in Xi's head about whether he has been lied to by his own army - and all that implies. It has also made a mockery of CCP propaganda that western democracies are too weak to confront autocracies. China's elite are also shocked by the speed and scale to which the western powers snatched away the luxuries previously enjoyed by the Russian elite. Note that, I'm referring to the past and present - events that have already happened and are happening. The Ukraine disaster won't by itself cause a crisis within the CCP, but it will certainly raise the sense of unease and tension that has been building up in the CCP halls of power. The last thing anyone will think of, is somehow micromanaging Russia's internal politics - which historically has had a 100% failure rate for foreign powers.

My calculation is that if Moscow is in a weak enough position that terms can be dictated to them, they are also more vulnerable to Chinese pressure. And this might force the Russians to cut their losses.

[Woody]

Chechen elite fighters have now returned from their vacation and are on the frontlines. Vows for another Mariupol, Lysychansk, Popasna, etc.. for Ukrainian fighters. And promises to cleanse and liberate all of Ukraine from "Nazism" and "Satanism"

https://twitter.com/siadevinci/status/1569207799468417026

[rc18]

Chechen elite fighters have now returned from their vacation and are on the frontlines. Vows for another Mariupol, Lysychansk, Popasna, etc.. for Ukrainian fighters. And promises to cleanse and liberate all of Ukraine from "Nazism" and "Satanism"

https://twitter.com/siadevinci/status/1569207799468417026

I'm just glad no street furniture was harmed in the making of this video.

[Coldstream]

Chechen elite fighters have now returned from their vacation and are on the frontlines. Vows for another Mariupol, Lysychansk, Popasna, etc.. for Ukrainian fighters. And promises to cleanse and liberate all of Ukraine from "Nazism" and "Satanism"

https://twitter.com/siadevinci/status/1569207799468417026

Imagine the Ukrainians terror that the Ramsay Bolton cosplayer who’s spent the war praying at petrol stations is after them.