Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

As with the initial Russian push on February 24, the situation is changing so rapidly on the ground that the advancing party would do well to stir panic with claims which may be false but hard to disprove until the dust settles.

I will believe the Lyman/Izyum pushes when I see them*, as they would require yet more simultaneous offensives on axes which had previously been static for a while. Until then, I will take a more conservative approach to avoid being burnt as I was in February when I (IIRC) posted about the imminent Russian landing in Odesa.

*There is evidence of an attack on Lyman, but whether it's a raid or an offensive seems unclear to me this early. I hope it's unclear to the Russians, too.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1568302739146375168?s=20&t=f1YhrGmiWNnkUQ...

Ukrainians driving north across the Siverskyi Donetsk River towards Lyman. This might be old footage from the Spring, but it was retweeted by Def Mon so I'll share it for now:

[Edit: Yep, it was an old video. Tweet snipped.]

[windjammer]

Every days it is getting worse and worse for the russians.


I don't expect this War to last for years if that trend continues

[Person Man]

Every days it is getting worse and worse for the russians.


I don't expect this War to last for years if that trend continues

What will Russians do if their effort collapses? That’s a big question. It shouldn’t be a deterrent, though.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1568267855870758917

Cut the city in half. Prevents any reinforcements (if any exist) and protects their flank as they encircle Izium.

Izium will be the new Cannae.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Baghdad Bob moment.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1568335379689869313
I'm still not sure how real these Izyum movements are, but this provides more weight to the reports, although they're still unconfirmed.

Remember all that talk of an "Izyum cauldron" in Russia's Donbas push?

Edit: same guy:

https://twitter.com/BVasylchenko/status/1568333811213033476

[Person Man]

Baghdad Bob moment.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1568335379689869313
I'm still not sure how real these Izyum movements are, but this provides more weight to the reports, although they're still unconfirmed.

Remember all that talk of an "Izyum cauldron" in Russia's Donbas push?

Edit: same guy:

https://twitter.com/BVasylchenko/status/1568333811213033476

So he’s running away after talking trash? I would be careful if I were him. Trump might try to grab him.

[Storr]

Baghdad Bob moment.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1568335379689869313
I'm still not sure how real these Izyum movements are, but this provides more weight to the reports, although they're still unconfirmed.

Remember all that talk of an "Izyum cauldron" in Russia's Donbas push?

Edit: same guy:

https://twitter.com/BVasylchenko/status/1568333811213033476

So he’s running away after talking trash? I would be careful if I were him. Trump might try to grab him.

Of course he had to take a few photos before leaving, as well. I guess the Russians didn't bother repainting Izyum's signs.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1568296592666693632?s=20&t=_ZPvdIN4_PJ...

[NOVA Green]

Thank you for not crediting me for an article which I had posted upthread.

I attempt to at least review other posters updates prior to posting on topics, but I'll give you a "hall pass" on this one, since you do provide quite a bit of decent content, especially involving the financial and the "Macro-Economics" involved and arguably from a really solid perspective there.

Oh, sorry about that.  I must have missed it.  My mistake.

We cool jaichind... honest mistake, especially in what has been a really active period on the thread, and tbf not the only time where posters of all persuasions on the thread have accidentally jumped in and posted articles, tweets, etc whom others have previously posted upthread.

Heck, probably been guilty of that myself a few times here and there on Atlas, where I accidentally stepped on another posters source citing, without directly replying to their OP linked to sources. 

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, NYT had an update to their story from earlier this morning regarding the Ukrainian Counter-Attacks on multiple fronts.

I assume most of the active posters on this thread might likely be aware, but there are many non-posters on the thread who are simply looking for updates...

I will attempt to avoid quoting or mentioning items posted elsewhere upthread.

The new offensive in the north appears to have caught the Russian forces off guard. On Friday, its Defense Ministry said on Telegram that it was moving troops to reinforce the Kharkiv region, without specifying their numbers or specific locations.

Yevgeny Poddubny, a Russian state TV reporter, posted a video of Russian transport helicopters that he said were transferring Russian troops to the Kupiansk and Izium areas, citing Russian defense officials.

While the Ukrainian gains in the north were capturing most of the attention Friday, the southern counteroffensive also made gains, with Ukraine’s Security Service releasing photos of what it said was the city of Vysokopillia, in the Kherson region. That claim could not be independently verified.

Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at C.N.A., a research institute in Arlington, Va., said the campaign in the south did not appear to be a diversion to draw Russian forces.

“These appear to be interrelated offensives,” he said on Twitter on Thursday. “Kherson likely intended as a more deliberate, sequenced advance. Kharkiv to take advantage of favorable conditions.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/09/world/europe/ukraine-russia-kharkiv.html

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile within Mother Russia itself looks like a group of lawmakers in St. Petersburg are calling for Mr. Putin to be removed from office and charged with treason.

This is right before upcoming elections, and these folxs definitely are doing a "profiles in courage" moment, considering the likely consequences in what has increasingly become a fascist authoritarian state ....

A group of district council members in St. Petersburg, President Vladimir Putin’s hometown, called for the Russian leader to be charged with treason and removed from office in a rare but brazen protest against the war in Ukraine.

The brave move by the Smolninsky District Council drew a predictably swift and unfriendly reaction. A day after the resolution against Putin was made public, a local police station told the lawmakers they were facing legal charges “due to actions aimed at discrediting the current Russian government.”

The district council’s statement came in the form of a request to the Russian parliament, the State Duma, and asserted that Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine on Feb. 24 led to a massive loss of life, turned countless Russian men into disabled veterans, hindered the national economy, and fast-tracked NATO’s eastward expansion.

A second municipal council in Moscow’s Lomonosovsky district followed suit and voted on a similar motion calling on Putin to resign. Outspoken criticism of Putin is rare, and while the two motions were little more than symbolic statements, they represented a remarkable public rebuke. They also served as evidence that public support for the war in Ukraine is not universal, and could be eroding as a recent survey of Russian public opinion found.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/09/lawmakers-putin-impeachment-censure-war/

Been trying to minimize insertion of music links on this thread, but reading this report reminded me of the classic UK band The Subhumans and their song "Subvert City" from way back in the '80s.

Pretty sure that Dick (lead singer) played within Russia as well as the other former Soviet Republics multiple times in either The Subhumans of Citizenfish.

[Storr]

BREAKING:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1568315070102265858?s=20&t=l6BoT_...

[NOVA Green]

While we are on the topic of the impact of Russia's 2nd invasion of Ukraine among the domestic Russian Population, The Wall Street Journal posted an exclusive story earlier today "live from Siberia", where Russian soldiers are disproportionally dying in Ukraine...

I know this was a topic previously discussed on this thread, where multiple posters were commenting on the disproportionate casualty levels among poorer and ethnic minority Russian Citizens, and I believe Storr was perhaps one who first brought to light while examining some of the casualty numbers.

(Apologies for not remembering other who had previously posted on this topic).

In the opening months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Vladislav Khovalyg, the head of Tuva, a region in remote southern Siberia, kept a running tally on social media of local men who had been killed fighting in the conflict, lauding their patriotism and heroism.

On March 5, he named Akhmet Maadyb and Sodunam Shalyk. Two days later, he posted news of the deaths of Adygzhy Kuular and Pavel Knyazev. Then on March 14 came Junior Sgt. Eduard Bilzen, Cpl. Adygzhy Mongush and Cpl. Romaz Oyun, all from the 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade, based in Tuva’s capital. More names followed in April and May.

Eventually, as the losses mounted, Mr. Khovalyg stopped listing them. Defense officials in Moscow haven’t offered any official count of the nation’s casualties since March. At that time, the toll stood at 1,351 killed in what Russia’s government terms a “special military operation.”

At least 92 men from Tuva have been killed since the invasion began in February, according to obituaries in local media, social media posts from relatives and statements from regional officials, a large figure given its total population of over 332,000.

Tuva ranks third from the bottom out of the nation’s 85 regions in overall socio-economic indicators that include poverty levels, unemployment and life expectancy, according to government data compiled by state news agency RIA Novosti and released in May.

High casualty numbers have been recorded in other depressed areas, such as Buryatia in eastern Siberia, the Republic of Altai in southern Siberia, North Ossetia in the North Caucasus and, further west, in Pskov region, according to information gathered from obituaries published in local publications, social media postings, statements from regional officials and municipal administration websites.

All of these are placed among the bottom 15 regions nationwide in terms of their social and economic development. And all, like Tuva, are located along Russia’s borders, often home to military bases.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-russias-poorest-regions-war-in-ukraine-exacts-heavy-toll-11662722109?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1

[Storr]

"The 237th Guards Airborne Assault Regiment of the Russian Federation ceased to exist due to the death or injury of all servicemen. A significant part of those who survived are in an extremely difficult condition."

https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1568286699805097986?s=20&t=5mcza0u...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1568351948138549251?s=20&t=5mcza0u...

[NOVA Green]

Granted I tend to take Russian public opinion polls with some obviously large shakers of salt, but still...

Limited quotes and link to WaPo (paywall summary at top), and link to the actual, much more detailed article from Carnegie Endowment study below that (free).

Russian public support for the war against Ukraine, while sky-high, is less solid than statistics generally suggest, according to an analysis by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and has fallen in recent months with some supporters saying they are ambivalent, anxious, shocked or fearful about the ongoing military campaign.

About 20 percent of respondents said they did not support the war, up from 14 percent in March, the analysis found. About 75 percent said they supported the war, compared with 81 percent in March.

“Opinions are becoming polarized. Over time, polarized opinions are becoming radicalized. All of that points to growing conflict within Russian society,” Kolesnikov and Volkov wrote, pointing to sharp differences between the 47 percent who definitely supported the war in June — described in Russia as a “special military operation” — and the 28 percent who mostly supported it.

Even among those who said they supported the war, many were ambivalent. The 28 percent who mostly supported the war were more likely to express anxiety, fear or horror about it, according to Kolesnikov and Volkov.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/russia-war-ukraine-public-opinion/


https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/07/my-country-right-or-wrong-russian-public-opinion-on-ukraine-pub-87803

BUMP... especially within the context of Russian lawmakers in St. Pete and Moscow alleging that Mr. Putin is guilty of "treason".

[AndyHogan14]

Starting to see talk that the liberation of Izium is imminent which would be a huge blow to the Muscovites in the east and may allow the Ukrainians to liberate parts of the Donbas. Also, Ponomarenko is talking about a move against Melitopol:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1568346170035945472?s=20&t=aVz60RXd...

If Ukraine can sustain this momentum, and in the coming days make a successful move in the direction of Melitopol...wow, just wow.

[walleye26]

While this is awesome, what is crazy for me is how fast this is happening. I expected this counterattack to last like 2 months. It’s been like 2 weeks and they are taking over huge tracks of territory.

[Mehmentum]

Ukraine had a plan and they executed it.  Telegraph an attack in Kherson, draw Russian units in, pin them down and trap them there.  Exploit the weakened lines elsewhere and break through in a surprise attack.

The fact that Ukraine has been successfully pulling off 2 offensives simultaneously is absolutely to their credit.  The army is incredibly competent- experienced, well equipped and supplied, motivated, and well led.  The fact that Russia was duped by their ploy, didn't consider that Ukraine's loud noises about a limited offensive in Kherson could be hiding something else, and didn't put sufficient reserves elsewhere in the front is a complete, embarrassing failure.

[Storr]

My dude looks very nervous. I wonder why that could possibly be?

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1568374505357320193?s=20&t=m4tU0wkG...

[Hindsight was 2020]

The amazing part is Kherson isn’t is a dupe on Ukraine’s part, it’s two legitimate counterattacks using different style of methodical and logistics heavy in Kherson based around attack bridges and pinning Russians down while Kharkiv is a blitz

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1568026439382929409?s=20&t=xY13g2o4pi6...

With how slow offensive progress has been for both sides since the initial Russian onslaught, it is quite incredible how much the map has changed in just twenty-four hours:

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1568389026884853762?s=20&t=l6BoT_O6AEE...

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Hello

https://mobile.twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1567974442856513536

If Bilaps weren't banned, he would have left by now. The Putin bots have run out of disinformation.

[The Dowager Mod]

Hello

https://mobile.twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1567974442856513536

"Always have a good escape plan"---Martin Bormann (probably)

[Oryxslayer]

While this is awesome, what is crazy for me is how fast this is happening. I expected this counterattack to last like 2 months. It’s been like 2 weeks and they are taking over huge tracks of territory.

I mean the quality of the soldiers behind the lines doing occupation, garrison, and police work is always suspect when compared to those with experience at the front, what's just showing is that the gap between those two groups is far wider than expected. Which throws a lot of Cold Water on the idea that Russia can order a mobilization and recover some dignity. If the 'soldiers' will act like this and probably be underequipped then the threat is not to Ukraine but to Putin's regime. Russia's soldiers are not coming from the "Great Russian" heartland regions for a reason, and a mobilization of them for little military gain likely reaps too much political dissatisfaction to make this move feasible.