Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

Another Russian corporate CEO "falling out the window".

https://twitter.com/nazirafzal/status/1565246075455291394

[Omega21]

Another Russian corporate CEO "falling out the window".

https://twitter.com/nazirafzal/status/1565246075455291394

Enough is enough, we need to immediately lift sanctions on Russia.

We have plenty of safe, domestically produced EU windows ready for export.

Think of all the lives we could save!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Opinion on Russia sanctions in Germany (Infratest dimap for ARD-Deutschlandtrend, 08/29-31/08)





Opinion on Russia sanctions if they lead to energy shortages

Support 54%
Oppose 40%


Opinion on Russia sanctions if they lead to disadvantages for German companies

Support 53%
Oppose 41%


Opinion on Russia sanctions if they lead to rising energy prices and costs of living

Support 53%
Oppose 41%


They also asked for various measures to economically relieve the population. All measures proposed in the poll garnered a support of at least 64%. The most popular measure was "direct payments" to citizens with "small and medium income", with a approval of 81%.


Voting intention
CDU/CSU 27% (-1)
Greens 22% (-1)
SPD 17% (+/-0)
AfD 13% (+/-0)
FDP 8% (+1)
Left 5% (+1)

[jaichind]

And there's another aspect to consider: Public opinion. I don't think I have seen any polling data from this week, but mid-August 71% were in favour of continuing to support Ukraine "despite high energy costs".

 

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/baerbock-public-opinion-wont-make-germany-lift-sanctions

"Baerbock: Public opinion won't make Germany lift sanctions."

Speaking at the Forum 2000 conference in Prague, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock assured Ukraine that Berlin would not lift sanctions even if protests against rising energy prices heat up. "We support you and will support you as long as it takes, no matter what the German electorate thinks," Baerbock said.

It seems Baerbock is saying that even German public opinion does not matter either

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1565030257987620869

Yeah, this map seems more realistic (though showing a very favorable scenario for Ukraine):

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1565278935922909184?s=20&t=RPCaqIFDeU...

[Hollywood]

The most important news of the day was supposed to involve the IAEA mission in Zaporizhzhia, but theUkrainian decided to pull off a military action as the Inspectors were approaching the location.  Sixty Ukrainian Soldiers took helicopters over the Dnipro, landed on rooftops and streets, and then attempted to take control.  The Inspector was delayed until after the Russians mopped up the area.  I’m honestly baffled by this performance.  

The IAEA Chief confirmed that the action took place.   The Russians claim that the IAEA were stopped at the border checkpoint, and told by the Ukrainians that the Russians had fired on their own positions.  https://rumble.com/v1i7pqq-iaea-mission-heads-to-russian-held-nuclear-plant.html

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1564936368593281024?s=20&t=RPCaqIFD...

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1565367468335550469

[Logical]

I'm begging people here not to draw sweeping conclusions from ONE (1) video on the internet.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1565367468335550469

I haven't seen two of the videos Julian shared images from on twitter, but here's the video the image on the left is from:

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1565384027795853318?s=20&t=LRPlHOdOZe...

[Woody]

I'm begging people here not to draw sweeping conclusions from ONE (1) video on the internet.

I agree. Just posted this to show how Julian likes to always post bulls"t for headlines.

[President Johnson]

And there's another aspect to consider: Public opinion. I don't think I have seen any polling data from this week, but mid-August 71% were in favour of continuing to support Ukraine "despite high energy costs".

 

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/baerbock-public-opinion-wont-make-germany-lift-sanctions

"Baerbock: Public opinion won't make Germany lift sanctions."

Speaking at the Forum 2000 conference in Prague, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock assured Ukraine that Berlin would not lift sanctions even if protests against rising energy prices heat up. "We support you and will support you as long as it takes, no matter what the German electorate thinks," Baerbock said.

It seems Baerbock is saying that even German public opinion does not matter either

It's an unpopular opinion, but I agree with her. We need to stay course and make sure Putin his not successful with his stupid war. If the German public is angery over energy prices, direct your anger at him and not at anyone else. Because the man in the Kremlin is responsible for this.

I really do regard this as a good vs. evil question, and sometimes it's necessary to take a stand and make unpopular decisions.

[rc18]

The most important news of the day was supposed to involve the IAEA mission in Zaporizhzhia, but theUkrainian decided to pull off a military action as the Inspectors were approaching the location.  Sixty Ukrainian Soldiers took helicopters over the Dnipro, landed on rooftops and streets, and then attempted to take control.  The Inspector was delayed until after the Russians mopped up the area.  I’m honestly baffled by this performance.  

The IAEA Chief confirmed that the action took place.   The Russians claim that the IAEA were stopped at the border checkpoint, and told by the Ukrainians that the Russians had fired on their own positions.  https://rumble.com/v1i7pqq-iaea-mission-heads-to-russian-held-nuclear-plant.html

If you are going to try and spread Russian propaganda it is probably wise to stay on-message.

The Russians claimed paratroopers crossed over 3 km of water in boats.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/sep/01/russia-ukraine-war-no-quick-wins-in-kherson-zelenskiy-adviser-says-nuclear-inspectors-due-at-zaporizhzhia-plant-live?filterKeyEvents=false

The Russian defence ministry has issued additional details of what it claims is an attempt by Ukrainian forces to sabotage or recapture the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) in southern Ukraine which Russian forces have been occupying since March.

Without offering any evidence, the ministry said:

"At 6.20am Moscow time, on the coast of the Kakhovka Reservoir, 3km northeast of the ZNPP, the Kyiv regime landed two sabotage groups of the armed forces of Ukraine with a total number of up to 60 people on seven high-speed motor boats. The saboteurs were blocked by units of the Russian guard, which were guarding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, and units of the Russian armed forces approached them to reinforce them. Currently, the destruction of the sabotage group of the armed forces of Ukraine with the involvement of army aviation helicopters is underway.

At about 7am Moscow time, units of the Russian armed forces thwarted an attempt to land a tactical assault force of the armed forces of Ukraine on two self-propelled barges that left Nikopol a few kilometres from the ZNPP. As a result of the fire damage of the Russian armed forces, two self-propelled barges were sunk."

The claims have not been independently verified. An earlier statement by the ministry gave the time of the attack as 6am.

It was obviously ridiculous,

https://twitter.com/RolandOliphant/status/1565251999754592256

And no, the IAEA Chief didn't confirm anything of the like.

[Storr]

Meanwhile in Minsk:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1565271830532952070?s=20&t=4gfQKi7W...

[Torie]

I was wondering how granularly the US was involved in planning with Ukraine how and where and with what on a continuous basis. This squib from CNN gives a clue, and does not surprise me.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/31/politics/ukraine-us-wargames-counteroffensive/index.html

[Storr]

The most important news of the day was supposed to involve the IAEA mission in Zaporizhzhia, but theUkrainian decided to pull off a military action as the Inspectors were approaching the location.  Sixty Ukrainian Soldiers took helicopters over the Dnipro, landed on rooftops and streets, and then attempted to take control.  The Inspector was delayed until after the Russians mopped up the area.  I’m honestly baffled by this performance.  

The IAEA Chief confirmed that the action took place.   The Russians claim that the IAEA were stopped at the border checkpoint, and told by the Ukrainians that the Russians had fired on their own positions.  https://rumble.com/v1i7pqq-iaea-mission-heads-to-russian-held-nuclear-plant.html

If you are going to try and spread Russian propaganda it is probably wise to stay on message.

The Russians claimed paratroopers crossed over 3 km of water in boats.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/sep/01/russia-ukraine-war-no-quick-wins-in-kherson-zelenskiy-adviser-says-nuclear-inspectors-due-at-zaporizhzhia-plant-live?filterKeyEvents=false

The Russian defence ministry has issued additional details of what it claims is an attempt by Ukrainian forces to sabotage or recapture the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) in southern Ukraine which Russian forces have been occupying since March.

Without offering any evidence, the ministry said:

"At 6.20am Moscow time, on the coast of the Kakhovka Reservoir, 3km northeast of the ZNPP, the Kyiv regime landed two sabotage groups of the armed forces of Ukraine with a total number of up to 60 people on seven high-speed motor boats. The saboteurs were blocked by units of the Russian guard, which were guarding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, and units of the Russian armed forces approached them to reinforce them. Currently, the destruction of the sabotage group of the armed forces of Ukraine with the involvement of army aviation helicopters is underway.

At about 7am Moscow time, units of the Russian armed forces thwarted an attempt to land a tactical assault force of the armed forces of Ukraine on two self-propelled barges that left Nikopol a few kilometres from the ZNPP. As a result of the fire damage of the Russian armed forces, two self-propelled barges were sunk."

The claims have not been independently verified. An earlier statement by the ministry gave the time of the attack as 6am.

It was obviously ridiculous,

https://twitter.com/RolandOliphant/status/1565251999754592256

And no, the IAEA Chief didn't confirm anything of the like.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1565420613883379715?s=20&t=4gfQKi7W...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The most important news of the day was supposed to involve the IAEA mission in Zaporizhzhia, but theUkrainian decided to pull off a military action as the Inspectors were approaching the location.  Sixty Ukrainian Soldiers took helicopters over the Dnipro, landed on rooftops and streets, and then attempted to take control.  The Inspector was delayed until after the Russians mopped up the area.  I’m honestly baffled by this performance.  

The IAEA Chief confirmed that the action took place.   The Russians claim that the IAEA were stopped at the border checkpoint, and told by the Ukrainians that the Russians had fired on their own positions.  https://rumble.com/v1i7pqq-iaea-mission-heads-to-russian-held-nuclear-plant.html

If you are going to try and spread Russian propaganda it is probably wise to stay on message.

The Russians claimed paratroopers crossed over 3 km of water in boats.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/sep/01/russia-ukraine-war-no-quick-wins-in-kherson-zelenskiy-adviser-says-nuclear-inspectors-due-at-zaporizhzhia-plant-live?filterKeyEvents=false

The Russian defence ministry has issued additional details of what it claims is an attempt by Ukrainian forces to sabotage or recapture the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) in southern Ukraine which Russian forces have been occupying since March.

Without offering any evidence, the ministry said:

"At 6.20am Moscow time, on the coast of the Kakhovka Reservoir, 3km northeast of the ZNPP, the Kyiv regime landed two sabotage groups of the armed forces of Ukraine with a total number of up to 60 people on seven high-speed motor boats. The saboteurs were blocked by units of the Russian guard, which were guarding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, and units of the Russian armed forces approached them to reinforce them. Currently, the destruction of the sabotage group of the armed forces of Ukraine with the involvement of army aviation helicopters is underway.

At about 7am Moscow time, units of the Russian armed forces thwarted an attempt to land a tactical assault force of the armed forces of Ukraine on two self-propelled barges that left Nikopol a few kilometres from the ZNPP. As a result of the fire damage of the Russian armed forces, two self-propelled barges were sunk."

The claims have not been independently verified. An earlier statement by the ministry gave the time of the attack as 6am.

It was obviously ridiculous,

https://twitter.com/RolandOliphant/status/1565251999754592256
And no, the IAEA Chief didn't confirm anything of the like.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1565420613883379715?s=20&t=4gfQKi7W...

Romanov, who runs one of the more widely known Russian telegram channels (of "if a civilian sees something wrong, make sure they don't talk" fame) has released photos of an empty barge that has been shot up.

An empty barge allegedly used in a stealth raid isn't credible evidence, but it's "evidence" in the way 3 copies of the Sims 3 was.

[Torie]

I doubt the amphibious suicidal assault was part of the US-Ukraine war gaming, wherein the US brass advice was less is more. It just doesn't "pencil" at all. Ukraine has been determined but cautious and prudent in its defense thus far. This would be an utterly discordant note.

Just the opinion of a guy who know nothing about war, and whose hands are totally virgin when it comes to holding a gun, sword, or anything more lethal than a kitchen knife. Guns just make too much noise.

[jaichind]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-31

Military forces that must conduct offensive operations without the numerical advantages normally required for success in such operations often rely on misdirections and feints to draw the defender away from the sectors of the line on which breakthrough and exploitation efforts will focus.

ISW is now making the argument that the current Ukraine counteroffensive is a feint to draw attention to the real counteroffensive to come.

[NOVA Green]

So The Washington Post published an article from areas near the frontlines in Kherson, and although the Ukrainian Military is currently not allowing reporters to "embed" because of "safety concerns", the four Washington Post journalists did have a chance to chat with some locals in the region.

The 32-year-old resident of Kamyane, a village surrounded by Russian forces, said the pitch of artillery volleys from both directions has ramped up. He and his neighbors have watched Ukrainian attack helicopters buzz the treetops on their way south. On Wednesday evening, Ukrainian military vehicles plied the dirt lane in the region’s northwest corner where he and his wife, Taisia, were driving on their way to buy food.

The lane is one of the routes that lets them avoid areas controlled by the Russian invaders, who now occupy nearly all of this 11,000-square-mile strategically vital region, including its capital, the Black Sea port city of Kherson.

The lane skirts forests and pastures and leads to a makeshift bridge of gravel and pipes across the Inhulets River, which divides Kherson from Ukrainian-controlled regions to the north and west. In recent days, Kherson residents have used the crossing to flee the fighting, most of them heading to the nearby city of Kryvyi Rih.

“They cross every day,” said Oleksander Pokusayev, who lives in the adjacent village of Shestirnya, just inside free Ukraine. He had ridden his Soviet-era Voskhod motorcycle to the Kherson side of the bridge, where he frequently fishes. “I saw two minibuses full of people earlier today,” he said.

The information vacuum has left Kherson residents in and out of the territory scrambling to find out more. In Kryvyi Rih, where the city government has set up 89 shelters to house more than 35,000 evacuees from Kherson, people who fled the fighting scroll through Telegram channels and chat groups to find out what is happening at home.

Svetlana Kulybanych, 60, and her family are living in a Kryvyi Rih orphanage that has been converted into a shelter. She regularly phones one of the few friends who has remained in their home city of Nova Kakhovka, 25 miles from the city of Kherson.

Something big is definitely happening, the friend reported Wednesday.

“She said the Ukrainians are shelling in the city and they have destroyed a lot of depots and places where the Russians stored their equipment,” Kulybanych said. “Now the Russians are hiding between the buildings.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/01/ukraine-russia-kherson-military-offensive/

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1565452438118727682

[Storr]

Video that's claimed to show a captured Russian position in the South:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1565520887885037569?s=20&t=Yo8zbr...

More Russian ammo burning:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1565495973442310144?s=20&t=Yo8zbr...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/shashj/status/1565654212637343745
Interesting thread on this person theory of what Ukraine is doing in Kherson

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/x1skv/status/1565664173618520065?s=20&t=WPpaJ-WoiYZ0imAF...

[Storr]

Nice:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1565593643896946688?s=20&t=3onhHcw...