Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[rc18]

The drones are evolving, this one has about 10 anti-tank grenades. It's effectively a mini-bomber...

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1556143213764919296

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Sweden has agreed to send 120 military advisors to support Ukraine with training 🇸🇪 ❤️ 🇺🇦

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sweden has agreed to send 120 military advisors to support Ukraine with training 🇸🇪 ❤️ 🇺🇦

Sweden has thrown out decades of neutrality. They may as well go all the way, to make it so that Russia is as weak as possible.

[jaichind]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-military-aid-weapons-front-lines/

"Why military aid to Ukraine doesn't always get to the front lines: "Like 30% of it reaches its final destination"

CBS reports say only 30% of military aid reaches the front lines.  I cannot be sure this is true but this report is another sign that some in the MSM are breaking ranks and starting to question the all-out aid to Ukraine narrative.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-military-aid-weapons-front-lines/

"Why military aid to Ukraine doesn't always get to the front lines: "Like 30% of it reaches its final destination"

CBS reports say only 30% of military aid reaches the front lines.  I cannot be sure this is true but this report is another sign that some in the MSM are breaking ranks and starting to question the all-out aid to Ukraine narrative.

The CBS report refers to 30-40% of non-lethal military aid (e.g. night vision) supplied by the claimant’s NGO, within the timescale of February-April (in which the frontlines were, at points, a lot more fluid; Ukraine’s largest cities were often cut off from their most reliable supply lines).

The claimant’s organisation has put out an explanation which reads like a damage control statement:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BlueYellowUKR/status/1555987500459593730
Logistics probably was and still is the largest factor in supplies not reaching their intended destinations quickly. This is also true for Russia, an even more corrupt state, although Ukraine faced especially acute problems in Mariupol (I’d imagine very little aid sent in that direction arrived after Russia encircled it).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Sweden has agreed to send 120 military advisors to support Ukraine with training 🇸🇪 ❤️ 🇺🇦

To the UK, not Ukraine.

[NOVA Green]

Very solid read from the WP, regarding Russian Intelligence Agents in Germany, the 2019 murder of a Russian dissident in Berlin, etc....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/05/berlin-khangoshvili-krasikov-russia-killing/

[jaichind]

Looks like in the spring under collective West pressure the PRC held back some exports to Russia while still ramping up below-market energy imports from Russia.  By the summer the facade came off and the PRC export to Russia went back to normal again

[jaichind]

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/turkey-to-pay-in-rubles-for-russian-gas-as-demand-increases/news

"Turkey to pay in rubles for Russian gas as demand increases"

Putin-Erdoğan summit revealed a deal to increase Russian gas exports to Turkey which will partially be paid in RUB.

[Torie]

The more I read about the PRC, the less I like it. I hope that the West has a plan to gradually decouple its economies from that of the PRC. A bonus from that will be the mitigation of trade secret and patent theft. The entanglement was less than I thought actually which was a relief. The PRC can export its stuff to Russia and Hungary and Turkey and North Korea and Somalia.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1556607935199027201

[jaichind]

The more I read about the PRC, the less I like it. I hope that the West has a plan to gradually decouple its economies from that of the PRC. A bonus from that will be the mitigation of trade secret and patent theft. The entanglement was less than I thought actually which was a relief. The PRC can export its stuff to Russia and Hungary and Turkey and North Korea and Somalia.

Well if that were to take place it will be a heavy hit on collective West as well as PRC. But as the chart below shows it will not b fatal for PRC.



The PRC-Global South economic integration has been a significant trend over the last decade.  To be fair the chart excludes Japan but if there is one thing one can count on it is that Japan will do what is best for Japan.  Any cutting of trade with PRC is for sure the Japanese business community is not interested in.

[Torie]

The more I read about the PRC, the less I like it. I hope that the West has a plan to gradually decouple its economies from that of the PRC. A bonus from that will be the mitigation of trade secret and patent theft. The entanglement was less than I thought actually which was a relief. The PRC can export its stuff to Russia and Hungary and Turkey and North Korea and Somalia.

Well if that were to take place it will be a heavy hit on collective West as well as PRC. But as the chart below shows it will not b fatal for PRC.



The PRC-Global South economic integration has been a significant trend over the last decade.  To be fair the chart excludes Japan but if there is one thing one can count on it is that Japan will do what is best for Japan.  Any cutting of trade with PRC is for sure the Japanese business community is not interested in.

Just to be clear, the intent would be to free oneself as much as practicable from potential PRC coercion, which it is clear the increasingly totalitarian state will not hesitate to use to achieve its execrable goals. Bringing down the PRC economy might be a delightful bonus conceivably, but hardly an expectation. Heck, the PRC is large enough to function reasonably well without much foreign trade at all I would think other than Russian fossil fuels.

Japan of course will do what is in its best interest. Japan has made clear in recent days what it thinks of team Xi. There is apparently zero love lost.

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220805/p2g/00m/0in/037000c

I did get a naughty pleasure I must admit observing Putin being reduced to Xi's lapdog.

Trading with autocracies can be a risky scheme, particularly lean and hungry ones intoxicated by their increasing powers to coerce.

Any more questions, or have we reached closure on this one?

[2952-0-0]

The more I read about the PRC, the less I like it. I hope that the West has a plan to gradually decouple its economies from that of the PRC. A bonus from that will be the mitigation of trade secret and patent theft. The entanglement was less than I thought actually which was a relief. The PRC can export its stuff to Russia and Hungary and Turkey and North Korea and Somalia.

Well if that were to take place it will be a heavy hit on collective West as well as PRC. But as the chart below shows it will not b fatal for PRC.



The PRC-Global South economic integration has been a significant trend over the last decade.  To be fair the chart excludes Japan but if there is one thing one can count on it is that Japan will do what is best for Japan.  Any cutting of trade with PRC is for sure the Japanese business community is not interested in.

Here's a simple question: what will happen to China's industrial and technology sectors without imports of high-tech components, which are only available in western-aligned countries? Its economy simply cannot go back to being the exporter of plastic toys and blue jeans.

[Hollywood]

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1556607935199027201

All those issues are side-effects of war and occupation. To quote Tywin Lannister from Game of Thrones, "I'm sure if spies snuck into our own encampment, they'd report growing discontent amongst the Southern Lords.  This is War.  No one's content."  Let me demonstrate by providing videos that Twitter, Google, and YouTube censor from their platforms to keep the simpletons uninformed.  

This is a video from June 12 of Ukrainian Soldiers surrendering weapons to their commander after refusing to fight. https://rumble.com/v1bubcr-07.12.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

This is another Brigade refusing to fight in May. https://rumble.com/v162aqx-ukraine-armed-forces-brigade-refuse-to-follow-order.html

This is a video of Ukrainian Soldier calling out Zelensky for pulling back the guns so he can shoot some propaganda. https://rumble.com/v175zmz-ukraine-war-surrendered-afu-fighter-told-how-they-were-forced-to-participat.html

There's dozens of videos that were shot by Ukrainian and Russian Cameramen, and many videos by the former armed force or individuals can be independently verified by anyone that's willing to seek the information.  

There's people chronicling the events in Ukraine, and I'm able to see the extent of Russian advancements, as well as some of the casualties after some battles.  I am positive that the situation for Ukrainian Soldiers on the Eastern Front is exponentially worse than it is for the Russians defending Cherson  The media keeps insisting there will be some large offensive by the Ukrainians towards Cherson, but both sides know it's impossible given the collapse of the Ukrainian fortified lines near Bakmut and Aviidivka.  And they'v already tried a major offensive on Cherson multiple times, and it's essentially a large kill zone for the Russian Artillery.  They would suffer devastating casualties in a win or lose scenario.  

[jaichind]

Trading with autocracies can be a risky scheme, particularly lean and hungry ones intoxicated by their increasing powers to coerce.

Any more questions, or have we reached closure on this one?

Sounds good.  Just to be clear, decoupling does minimize the power to coerce (at a significant cost to the coercer should it choose to exercise that power of course) but does not remove, just to get back to the topic at hand, the ability of, say  Russia, to wage the attritional war indefinitely. A set of policies to try to achieve that would be far costlier than a policy to decouple.  Decoupling is defensive while a set of policies to ensure an economy cannot sustain a long attritional war is offensive and far more costly.  As it is it seems the war can go on indefinitely for Russia where it will use mass artillery and time to gain ground slowly but minimize military losses.

[Torie]

Trading with autocracies can be a risky scheme, particularly lean and hungry ones intoxicated by their increasing powers to coerce.

Any more questions, or have we reached closure on this one?

Sounds good.  Just to be clear, decoupling does minimize the power to coerce (at a significant cost to the coercer should it choose to exercise that power of course) but does not remove, just to get back to the topic at hand, the ability of, say  Russia, to wage the attritional war indefinitely. A set of policies to try to achieve that would be far costlier than a policy to decouple.  Decoupling is defensive while a set of policies to ensure an economy cannot sustain a long attritional war is offensive and far more costly.  As it is it seems the war can go on indefinitely for Russia where it will use mass artillery and time to gain ground slowly but minimize military losses.

My inexpert lay person guess, is that more and more longer distance accurate weapons will be coming Ukraine's way, with Ukraine trained to use them, the better to blow up Russian ordinance so it loses the ability to wage war. I think the West wants this war to end this year, and not go on indefinitely, and Russia is going to be punished, and then punished them some more, to make it happen.

[Virginiá]

Billion-dollar aid package with most of it devoted merely to replenishing ammo stocks for existing weapons is a testament to how materiel-hungry war is, especially given that they just had a 550 million aid package a week ago or so and basically all of it was just artillery and HIMARS ammunition.

https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1556684181270298624

On the topic of aid, I'm curious at what point another aid package will be needed from Congress. If I understand it correctly, some of the money allocated sunsets in September, if it hasn't been spent yet anyway. Most of it doesn't, but then again, much of that aid package wasn't direct military aid either.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Sweden has agreed to send 120 military advisors to support Ukraine with training 🇸🇪 ❤️ 🇺🇦

To the UK, not Ukraine.

I stand corrected! They are going to the UK to train Ukrainians there. Thank you

[DavidB.]

Billion-dollar aid package with most of it devoted merely to replenishing ammo stocks for existing weapons is a testament to how materiel-hungry war is, especially given that they just had a 550 million aid package a week ago or so and basically all of it was just artillery and HIMARS ammunition.

https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1556684181270298624

Very sad that this is needed but very good that the Biden admin is doing it. Credit where it's due.

[jaichind]

From NYT.  I do not think the way this request is worded is wise and most likely be counterproductive

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From NYT.  I do not think the way this request is worded is wise and most likely be counterproductive

Hopefully the US does not waste its resources trying to oblige the Third World into obeying its will.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Billion-dollar aid package with most of it devoted merely to replenishing ammo stocks for existing weapons is a testament to how materiel-hungry war is, especially given that they just had a 550 million aid package a week ago or so and basically all of it was just artillery and HIMARS ammunition.

https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1556684181270298624
On the topic of aid, I'm curious at what point another aid package will be needed from Congress. If I understand it correctly, some of the money allocated sunsets in September, if it hasn't been spent yet anyway. Most of it doesn't, but then again, much of that aid package wasn't direct military aid either.

Modern war burns ammo at an inhuman rate. Like well above the amount that can be produced. We are going to have to send Ukraine both increasingly more packages and eventually transition them to NATO kit while Russia burns it’s increasingly dubious Cold War stockpiles.

[Virginiá]

Modern war burns ammo at an inhuman rate. Like well above the amount that can be produced. We are going to have to send Ukraine both increasingly more packages and eventually transition them to NATO kit while Russia burns it’s increasingly dubious Cold War stockpiles.

Their artillery capability is already reliant on NATO howitzers, with a limited supply of 152mm shells for their older Soviet guns. This was a big reason why they got a shipment of 155mm L119 light howitzers a month ago and have been ordering Krabs / PzH 2000s. Unfortunately, they are still in a bind because the roughly ~200 - 250+ 155mm howitzers they have received are not enough to cover the massive front lines, let alone build up reserves for a proper counterattack. The end result is less strike capability and more wear and tear on existing guns, which need replacement barrels and other parts much more often since they are basically being maxed out. Hopefully NATO is discussing more howitzers for Ukraine at some point.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Modern war burns ammo at an inhuman rate. Like well above the amount that can be produced. We are going to have to send Ukraine both increasingly more packages and eventually transition them to NATO kit while Russia burns it’s increasingly dubious Cold War stockpiles.

Their artillery capability is already reliant on NATO howitzers, with a limited supply of 152mm shells for their older Soviet guns. This was a big reason why they got a shipment of 155mm L119 light howitzers a month ago and have been ordering Krabs / PzH 2000s. Unfortunately, they are still in a bind because the roughly ~200 - 250+ 155mm howitzers they have received are not enough to cover the massive front lines, let alone build up reserves for a proper counterattack. The end result is less strike capability and more wear and tear on existing guns, which need replacement barrels and other parts much more often since they are basically being maxed out. Hopefully NATO is discussing more howitzers for Ukraine at some point.

After the 2014 Crimea invasion, Russia started a stealth campaign to deny Ukraine the ability to purchase Soviet 152mm shells. Russia sent in FSB agents to kill the CEOs of companies that were supplying Ukraine with the shells.

The NATO 155mm howitzers sent should be doubled to 400-500 to give Ukraine a chance to win.