Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Zinneke]

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-disinformation-africa-europe-sergey-lavrov/

Here you have a classic example of EU fecklessness; making a half-dead Borrell (who endorses the locking up of Catalans) the High Representative and voice of EU foreign policy rather than a fresh, hard hitting communicator was a crucial mistake.

[jaichind]

iMF commentary on Russia in latest report.

 "Russia's economy is estimated to have contracted during the second quarter by less than previously projected, with crude oil and non-energy exports holding up better than expected,"

"domestic demand is also showing some resilience thanks to containment of the effect of the sanctions."

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1551930662323724288

It took them a long time but they managed to take it. Bakhmut could be in danger after fall of Pokrovskoe as well

[Storr]

"Today, at the Odesa Military Academy, they said goodbye to the commander of the 28[th Separate Mechanized Brigade] named after the Knights of the Winter Campaign, Colonel Vitaly Gulyaev and lieutenant colonels Oleksandr Dainek, Valentin Sergienko and Vitaly Bondarev.
RIP gentlemen officers."

https://twitter.com/R_Kulyk/status/1551897403451637760?s=20&t=A7dmIejHUGIz8_...

[Storr]

Ukraine has been clearly targeting bridges in the Kherson area over the past few days.
[tweet snip]

https://twitter.com/bhginee/status/1550829704869027841?s=20&t=MTinDJkYrJJV-5...

The Russians have already mostly completed a pontoon bridge alongside the M-14 highway bridge across the Inhulets River at Darivka, Kherson Oblast, which was targeted by Ukrainian strikes a few days ago.

[tweet snip]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1551584131556966400?s=20&t=wx9vxvLTphBFSW...

Aaaaaand it's gone. Presumably because images of the pontoon bridge were being shared all over the internet or the damaged highway bridge was repaired enough to handle military traffic.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1551877665438810112?s=20&t=H2ChoHXfml-iEK...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1551877675563769856?s=20&t=H2ChoHXfml-iEK...

[Storr]

A reminder HIMARS is still active:

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1551712965522505728?s=20&t=H2ChoHXfm...

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1551824049885544450?s=20&t=W3-kaIAru_...

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1551943271441747969?s=20&t=83zt1yhCV...

[Middle-aged Europe]

This week Germany has successfully delivered the first five Gepard anti-aircraft tanks, three M270 rocket launchers and three additional Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers (bringing the total number of Panzerhaubitze to ten now) to the Ukrainian military.

(German language source: https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/lambrecht-mehrfachraketenwerfer-101.html)

In other news, the so-called "ring swap" where Germany supposedly delivers modern battle tanks to Eastern European NATO partners and in turn these countries are donating their Russian-produced tanks to Ukraine is turning out to be a major bust. No such ring swap has taken place so far and it is somewhat doubtful that it ever will. One main problem seems to be that the tanks that Germany intended to provide are either too old, too few or are taking too long to deliver, leading to reluctance in Eastern Europe to donate their own Russian-made tanks any time soon. In turn, this led to tenewed calls from mostly the ranks of the CDU and the FDP to directly send German-made Leopards to Ukraine now.

[Woody]

PMC Wagner in Vuhlehirska PP. Estimation of what the frontline looks like:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1551948480226238465?cxt=HHwWgoC9mfK60IkrAAAA

UA forces might still be holding out in northern Novoluhanske.

[Woody]

Chechen Kadyrovite forces wear uniforms with the words "To Kiev" written on their backs:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1551943324772229120

[Middle-aged Europe]

In other news, the so-called "ring swap" where Germany supposedly delivers modern battle tanks to Eastern European NATO partners and in turn these countries are donating their Russian-produced tanks to Ukraine is turning out to be a major bust. No such ring swap has taken place so far and it is somewhat doubtful that it ever will. One main problem seems to be that the tanks that Germany intended to provide are either too old, too few or are taking too long to deliver, leading to reluctance in Eastern Europe to donate their own Russian-made tanks any time soon. In turn, this led to tenewed calls from mostly the ranks of the CDU and the FDP to directly send German-made Leopards to Ukraine now.

Well, and the Greens too:


https://twitter.com/BR24/status/1551151938292654080


https://twitter.com/EESFonBelarus/status/1551575051765440513


As usual, the SPD is the most hesitant.

[Storr]

I won't speculate and side with the rumors of the Antonovsky bridge being destroyed, but it (or something close to it, there is a nearby railway bridge) is definitely being attacked:
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1552032561546797057?s=20&t=wTL4GY...

In the video below, anti-air/air defense missiles can be seen launching:

https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1552034557347733507?s=20&t=jXSXhVocntv39...

[windjammer]

Chechen Kadyrovite forces wear uniforms with the words "To Kiev" written on their backs:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1551943324772229120

Hahahahahahaha no one takes them seriously. They don't even engage in the battle (something the russians are least doing) and prefer to be in safe russia controlled zone to post tiktok videos hahahahahahaha.

[bilaps]

Using Himars on bridges is so stupid.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1552047088891985922?s=20&t=xxaQhnakPdpERn...

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1552047088891985922?s=20&t=xxaQhnakPdpERn...

If the bridge has indeed been destroyed, then the Russians may have to retreat from Kherson as a "gesture of goodwill" sooner rather than later. Yes, there is another crossing at Nova Kakhovka and a rail crossing in Kherson, but using either will cause supply issues. Trains on the rail bridge are an easy target and Nova Kakhovka is 50 miles away, giving the Ukrainians 50 miles of opportunity to hit the supplies.

[Storr]

It's not a shocking or earth shattering claim, but Igor Girkin (FSB operative, self admitted POW executioner, and former "Defense Minister" of the Donetsk People's Republic) predicts there will be a Ukrainian offensive in Kherson oblast "soon". Bolding for emphasis and brackets for clarification, by me:

https://wartranslated.com/igor-girkin-frontline-situation-26-july-2022/
 
"Kherson Front:

After unsuccessful attacks on our positions to the southeast and south of Kryvyi Rih, the AFU continues to build up forces on the entire front of the Right Bank [western side of the Dnieper] bridgehead of the AFU. Currently, fierce artillery shelling of our troops’ forward and rear positions and attempts at aerial attacks are taking place daily. AFU attacks ammunition depots, air defense positions, and transport and supply facilities. Our troops are actively responding, seeking to disrupt the concentration of enemy strike groups.


I expect an enemy offensive soon in the direction (conditional line) of Kryvyi Rih – Beryslav – with access to the dam near Novaya Kakhovka; in the direction directly to Kherson from the northwest and northeast directions. The enemy may attempt to dissect our bridgehead [Russian controlled territory on the western side of the Dnieper River] by crossing the Ingulets River in the center of our positions."

Yep, lol:

"General points: The AFU continues to increase rocket fire on rear transport hubs, air defense positions, and artillery in the near rear of Russian forces in the Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, paying particular attention to critical bridges on the Dnipro (there are two in total) in the hope of disabling them."
 

[The Dowager Mod]

Of course only the dog was the only one brave enough to try and help.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1552012564485267456

[Blue3]

Question: is there any way sanctions could actually get tougher against Russia?

[Badger]

Using Himars on bridges is so stupid.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1552047088891985922?s=20&t=xxaQhnakPdpERn...

Ha-Ha!

[bilaps]

Of course only the dog was the only one brave enough to try and help.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1552012564485267456

Ukraine now publishing their own war crimes.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Using Himars on bridges is so stupid.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1552047088891985922?s=20&t=xxaQhnakPdpERn...

Ha-Ha!

The Putin bots have been getting nervous. This is the first daylight evidence of the damage the HIMARS did to the Antonovsky Bridge. Russian vehicles will not be able to cross for a long time.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1552198330779852801

[bilaps]

Only way Ukrainian attacks on bridges using HIMARS make sense is if they would have unlimited amount of rockets and launchers which is known not to be true. But hey, they are losing ground still in the east, they don't have success south, they just lost entire command structure of the 28th mechanized brigade so they have to show us something. Outside of Zelensky taking pictures with Vogue while peole are dying

[jaichind]

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-zelenskyy-pursue-war-crimes-charges-leaders-jpmorgan-citi-hsbc-2022-7

"Ukraine will pursue war-crimes charges against leaders of JPMorgan Chase, Citi, and HSBC over Russia financing, Zelenskyy's economic advisor says"

Pretty soon we need a list of people who are not on a war crimes list

[Person Man]

Question: is there any way sanctions could actually get tougher against Russia?

Secondary sanctions. We could literally throw back the developing world into poverty if they help Putin and bring our jobs home.

[jaichind]

Question: is there any way sanctions could actually get tougher against Russia?

Secondary sanctions. We could literally throw back the developing world into poverty if they help Putin and bring our jobs home.

That sounds like would take a long time to recreate productive capacity in the collective West with the massive capital formation which ironic would need to be imported from economies that are meant to get secondary sanctions.

It seems the answer to the question is to pay: namely the collective West should just go and pay 30% above market prices for all non-Russian energy and food producers and then sell the same energy and food on the market at a 30% discount and increase the discount if Russia cuts their prices on the world market.  The economic cost of this would be massive and I would love to see the collective west leadership try to sell this to their voters but if they are willing to pay it would crush Russia.