Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Former Swedish Prime Minister:

https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1540954364654886912?s=20&t=j0Kf3cVAgqWM...

Former President of Estonia:

https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1540994849406652417?s=20&t=j0Kf3cVAgq...

Well the Russians will claim that this is in response to

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-intensifies-strikes-against-russian-controlled-areas-11655643930

Even the WSJ admits that civilian areas are hit by Ukraine's artillery strikes on Donetsk

BTW, I totally get what Ukraine was, and is, trying to do.  They are doing something similar to the UK in the Battle of Britain in 1940 where they hit German civilian areas to provoke German bombing of UK civilian areas and draw them away from the UK airstrips.  In this case, I do not think it worked as the Russians have not moved any assets toward  Donetsk in response but totally legitimate for Ukraine to try.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pictures like this do not compute for me

1) Even if we accept the Russian accusations of Nazis are Russian propaganda, let's all agree that the Azov Battalion are socially and culturally conservative and that if they were in the USA at the minimum their views would be like Pat Buchanan

2) This does not help the Ukraine cause.  This is exactly how you lose public opinion in places like India.  The Indian social conservatives see this and say "I see what the score is, I am for Russia."  Those that are not social conservative would view this as Western hypocrisy due to 1) and say "I am not against Ukraine but if the hypocritical West is going to support Ukraine then I am for Russia"

3) A good part of PRC public opinion is aligned with PRC geopolitical interests so they are going to be pro-Russia no matter what but a large bloc of the rest will pretty much go through a decision tree process much like Indians as described in 2)

Azovstal is a factory named after the Sea of Azov, not the Azov Battalion.

Edit: it looks like one of the guys has an Azov Battalion patch, though.

[jaichind]

Azovstal is a factory named after the Sea of Azov, not the Azov Battalion.

One of the posters clearly has a picture of the symbol of the Azov Battalion before they, of course, changed it to avoid the charge of being Nazi.


And in case that is a one-off here is another one

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Azovstal is a factory named after the Sea of Azov, not the Azov Battalion.

One of the posters clearly has a picture of the symbol of the Azov Battalion before they, of course, changed it to avoid the charge of being Nazi.

I had noticed that and edited my post accordingly. It's odd seeing a rainbow flag next to that patch, to say the least.

[jaichind]

I had noticed that and edited my post accordingly. It's odd seeing a rainbow flag next to that patch, to say the least.

Obviously, it is absurd to judge an entire march on one or two posters. My point to this entire crowd is that they attempt to link the LGBT rights to the current "thing" which is Ukraine makes them look hypocritical and generally not helpful to either cause.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/russian-troops-kill-up-to-80-polish-fighters-in-ukraine-moscow/articleshow/92455028.cms

"Russian troops kill 'up to 80' Polish fighters in Ukraine: Moscow"

Russia MoD claims to have killed up to 80 Polish mercenaries as part of a missile strike.  My impression is that the Polish form the biggest contingent of mercenaries on the Ukraine side.

Could you please not use the term "mercenaries" about international volunteers, there is an international definition of what a mercenary is and paid foreign volunteers in a regular army aren't included (if they were the Gurkhas in the British army would also be mercenaries, which would be ridiculous).

That is fair feedback.  I do not know how these units are being paid but in the meantime, a more neutral terminology would make sense although I never viewed the word mercenary as negative.  Was is a business and there are professional warriors are getting a honest days work for pay. 

[windjammer]

Well,
Russia has already lost the war. Its economy is facing a huge depression and all the political capital Russia managed to build in Europe is now gone.
Oh and he has managed to turn Ukraine fully into the EU camp. Quite an accomplishment given 10 years ago they democratically elected Yanoukovitch!

[Hindsight was 2020]

So jaichind has gone from spamming the board articles that give a inaccurate view of the Russian economy to give the impression that the sanctions aren’t hurting them to just flat out repeating their talking points about Ukraine being Nazis. Cool stuff

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/all-that-glitters-wont-be-sold-g7-bans-russian-gold/

"All that glitters won’t be sold: G7 bans Russian gold"

Amm... Gold is much easier than oil to smuggle and resell, especially with recasting.   Just like the EU really helped India with their Russia oil ban which really just allowed Indian oil refiners to make a middleman markup to recycle Russian oil to the EU this move is another bonanza for India.  India is a massive gold importer in world markets and it will become very easy for India to eat up all Russian gold exports and resell them to G7 states at a middleman markup.

This entire sanctions war is turning into a "let's give free money to India" scheme

[DavidB.]

So jaichind has gone from spamming the board articles that give a inaccurate view of the Russian economy to give the impression that the sanctions aren’t hurting them to just flat out repeating their talking points about Ukraine being Nazis. Cool stuff

That's not what he's saying. What he's saying is that it's weird to see LGBT flags connected to the Ukraine issue, particularly when thinking about the ideology of the Azov Batallion, and that many people outside the West will find the connection of LGBT and pro-Ukraine to be so off-putting that it will make them more inclined to take Russia's side.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/russian-troops-kill-up-to-80-polish-fighters-in-ukraine-moscow/articleshow/92455028.cms

"Russian troops kill 'up to 80' Polish fighters in Ukraine: Moscow"

Russia MoD claims to have killed up to 80 Polish mercenaries as part of a missile strike.  My impression is that the Polish form the biggest contingent of mercenaries on the Ukraine side.

Could you please not use the term "mercenaries" about international volunteers, there is an international definition of what a mercenary is and paid foreign volunteers in a regular army aren't included (if they were the Gurkhas in the British army would also be mercenaries, which would be ridiculous).

That is fair feedback.  I do not know how these units are being paid but in the meantime, a more neutral terminology would make sense although I never viewed the word mercenary as negative.  Was is a business and there are professional warriors are getting a honest days work for pay. 

I don't see it as a pejorative either. I think it's fair that both sides in this war have mercenaries fighting on their side, and this does not constitute a moral judgement, merely a recognition of fact.

[Red Velvet]

So jaichind has gone from spamming the board articles that give a inaccurate view of the Russian economy to give the impression that the sanctions aren’t hurting them to just flat out repeating their talking points about Ukraine being Nazis. Cool stuff

That's not what he's saying. What he's saying is that it's weird to see LGBT flags connected to the Ukraine issue, particularly when thinking about the ideology of the Azov Batallion, and that many people outside the West will find the connection of LGBT and pro-Ukraine to be so off-putting that it will make them more inclined to take Russia's side.

But Ukraine is supposed to be a liberal paradise!!! They invented it that way.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So jaichind has gone from spamming the board articles that give a inaccurate view of the Russian economy to give the impression that the sanctions aren’t hurting them to just flat out repeating their talking points about Ukraine being Nazis. Cool stuff

That's not what he's saying. What he's saying is that it's weird to see LGBT flags connected to the Ukraine issue, particularly when thinking about the ideology of the Azov Batallion, and that many people outside the West will find the connection of LGBT and pro-Ukraine to be so off-putting that it will make them more inclined to take Russia's side.

But Ukraine is supposed to be a liberal paradise!!! They invented it that way.

Ukraine should avoid being cast in this light and let the images of damaged apartments stand for themselves. It's highly unproductive, and the Russians know how to make a mountain out of a molehill.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The new analysis here is even worse than the armchair general behaviour which assumed fog of war wasn't real. The photo is weird, but Ukraine probably shouldn't worry about a relatively low-profile social media post put about by random pro-Ukrainian civvies.

"Posting cringe will decide Ukraine's international support," just doesn't make much sense when you think about it for more than five minutes. Governments aren't going to act like the NYT's idea of rust belt diner voters.

[jaichind]

The new analysis here is even worse than the armchair general behaviour which assumed fog of war wasn't real. The photo is weird, but Ukraine probably shouldn't worry about a relatively low-profile social media post put about by random pro-Ukrainian civvies.

"Posting cringe will decide Ukraine's international support," just doesn't make much sense when you think about it for more than five minutes. Governments aren't going to act like the NYT's idea of rust belt diner voters.

You could very well be right of course but then you have stuff like this and that UK PM Twitter account has 5.9 M followers.  Seems this one is not a low-profile media post.  Again this picture does not explicitly link the Ukraine cause with the LGBT cause but showing up at the same time certainly does not help the Ukraine cause with the vast socially conservative developing world.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Dvornikov's apparently been replaced by Zhidko as overall commander of Russian operations in Ukraine. There were rumours of the former's dismissal in late May.

[Hindsight was 2020]

First off the Azoz isn’t the Ukrainian government and Zelensky hasn’t govern prior to the war as some type of raging homophobe so to say that gay rights and supporting Ukraine can’t coexist is ridiculous and second to act like people flying the two at a rally will somehow hurt Ukraine internationally is equally absurd

[Yeahsayyeah]

And if you know the status of gay rights in Russia, then Ukraine can't really be worse.

[KaiserDave]

Why do people talk about Azov like it is relevant or representative of any large section of Ukrainian society? It is an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The European section of the International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association (ILGA) ranked Ukraine 39th out of 49 European countries in terms of LGBTQ rights... better than Bulgaria (40), Romania (41), Poland (44), Belarus (45), and - obivously - Russia (46).

https://rainbow-europe.org/country-ranking

[Storr]

Shockingly, the Russians targeting civilian apartment buildings with missiles only encouraged Ukraine's allies to provide it with more modern NATO-standard surface to air missile defense systems.

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1541187115010105344?s=20&t=9UVI0Hoxi...

[2952-0-0]

You could very well be right of course but then you have stuff like this and that UK PM Twitter account has 5.9 M followers.  Seems this one is not a low-profile media post.  Again this picture does not explicitly link the Ukraine cause with the LGBT cause but showing up at the same time certainly does not help the Ukraine cause with the vast socially conservative developing world.

And who in the developing world actually cares at all, let alone in a way that could affect policy? The number of Indians or Nigerians who think "I was supporting Ukraine's right to exist, but I saw pictures of rainbow flags, so now I don't anymore, and I will tell my government to actively support Putin" can be counted on one hand.

People can hold the two opinions "I don't like buttsex" and "Putin is scary" at the same time, you know.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Shockingly, the Russians targeting civilian apartment buildings with missiles only encouraged Ukraine's allies to provide it with a modern NATO-standard surface to air missile defense system.

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1541187115010105344?s=20&t=9UVI0Hoxi...

It might not do much more about that than Ukraine’s Buks, unless it’s the newest of the three NASAMS variants. However, it’d still matter in this case by increasing AD capacity (particularly as Ukraine burns through its inventory of surface-to-air missiles). Kuleba is right to identify that is quantity which matters here, and I’m a bit skeptical this will scale up quickly.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Now these are some real badasses.

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1541115619705331713
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1541129491342295049
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1541129494987161600

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why do people talk about Azov like it is relevant or representative of any large section of Ukrainian society? It is an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

You could very well be right of course but then you have stuff like this and that UK PM Twitter account has 5.9 M followers.  Seems this one is not a low-profile media post.  Again this picture does not explicitly link the Ukraine cause with the LGBT cause but showing up at the same time certainly does not help the Ukraine cause with the vast socially conservative developing world.

And who in the developing world actually cares at all, let alone in a way that could affect policy? The number of Indians or Nigerians who think "I was supporting Ukraine's right to exist, but I saw pictures of rainbow flags, so now I don't anymore, and I will tell my government to actively support Putin" can be counted on one hand.

People can hold the two opinions "I don't like buttsex" and "Putin is scary" at the same time, you know.

As with all jaichind posfs attempting to explain or forecast broad public opinion movements, we have to keep in mind that he thinks everybody whose net worth is lower than his is a subhuman epsilon with the intelligence, capacity for compassion, and understanding of proportion and perspective that that implies.