Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

The Ukrainian Urban Guerrilla formations in Kherson City appear to have claimed another pro-Russian Collaborator:

Ukrainian guerrilla fighters claimed on Friday to have killed a Kremlin-backed politician in the Russian-controlled southern region of Kherson, the latest in a series of attacks aimed at destabilizing the occupation authorities.

Dmitry Savluchenko, the head of the Department of Youth and Sports for the region, was blown up in his car, according to both Ukrainian and Russian officials, in what appeared to be part of a growing insurgent movement fueled by public anger over worsening economic, security and humanitarian conditions as Moscow pushes to Russify the region.

Ivan Fedorov, the exiled mayor of Melitopol who is an unofficial spokesman of Ukrainian resistance in his city, said at a news conference on Friday that rewards were being offered of up to $10,000 for the killing of the top proxy leader for Moscow in Melitopol.

“Our partisans start the hunting season,” Mr. Fedorov said.

and

The Ukrainian military’s Center for National Resistance said that with efforts to introduce Russian passports to the general public failing to draw a large number of takers, officials were forcing them on inmates at the Kherson Northern Correctional Colony.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/24/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Interestingly enough Urban Guerrilla warfare is traditionally tougher for insurgencies than Rural guerrilla warfare, since the inherent nature of cities make it much easier to control the population.

Naturally there are exceptions where a sustained urban guerrilla movement can exist, even within extremely repressive authoritarian societies (Think for example of the French and Italian Communists and Nationalist partisans during WW II in many cities), and also even against foreign soldiers from Democratic nations (Thinking of the IRA in Belfast and Free Derry vs the English Squaddies and Iraq War 2.0 with the US Invasion and occupation of Iraq).

Still traditionally rural guerrilla warfare has tended to be more sustainable for the insurgents, with various diffuse examples including the FMLN in El Salvador, US in Vietnam, Russia in Afghanistan, Mao in China, FARC in Columbia, etc....

In fact, it has not been uncommon for rural based guerrilla formations to effectively use their urban based guerrilla factions to support broader strategic goals, recognizing that in terms of military resources it might be a net gain for those with whom they are at war.

Think of the FMLN and their "Final Offensive" in San Salvador 1989, the Vietcong in Saigon and other cities in the South of Vietnam as part of the "Tet Offensive" of 1968, or even possibly the Battle of Algiers against French Occupation of Algeria.

At some point the longer that Russia continues to occupy major Ukrainian Cities, one must wonder at what point do we see what currently appear to be relatively small scale urban guerrilla actions turn into something much larger.

Traditional rule of thumb in guerrilla warfare goes something like if 10% of the population actively supports the insurgents (Material assistance, safe houses, recon and intel etc..) that should be a sustainable level of support for a VERY long time, despite the inevitable "burn rate" at the hands of repression of the "State"... (Using a Weber quote here).

In his lecture “Politics as a Vocation” (1918), the German sociologist Max Weber defines the state as a “human community that (successfully) claims the monopoly of the legitimate use of physical force within a given territory.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/state-monopoly-on-violence

Sure it is true that in some of these places much of the population remaining are older and incapable of physically fighting back against the occupying forces... it is also plausible that the existing population of some of these cities includes a higher % of Pro-Russian individuals, who themselves have continued to provide Russian Intelligence with steady streams of information.

Still, I suspect that regardless of the exact outcome of the more dramatic battles in Donbas that Russia will likely find it much harder to hold territory than to conquer it.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The Governor of Luhansk and various unofficial sources have implied Ukraine withdrew the last of its forces from Severodonetsk last night.

Additionally:

https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1540247955046912001
As always, treat the inevitable hype with caution. It’s likely that only 4 systems have arrived so far - they’re not likely to make much of a short-term difference (outside of maybe Snake Islans, if Ukraine is prepared to expend a fair number of GMLRS there).

The UK also announced the delivery of HIMARS to Ukraine at the same time as the US. The UK HIMARS should be delivered by the end of the month.

[rc18]

The Governor of Luhansk and various unofficial sources have implied Ukraine withdrew the last of its forces from Severodonetsk last night.

Additionally:

As always, treat the inevitable hype with caution. It’s likely that only 4 systems have arrived so far - they’re not likely to make much of a short-term difference (outside of maybe Snake Islans, if Ukraine is prepared to expend a fair number of GMLRS there).

The UK also announced the delivery of HIMARS to Ukraine at the same time as the US. The UK HIMARS should be delivered by the end of the month.

The UK's M270s are almost certainly already in Ukraine.

[Former President tack50]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/19/energy/germany-russia-gas-supplies-winter-intl/index.html

"Germany to fire up coal stations as Russia squeezes gas supply"

The Western Left faces many impossible trinities.  One of them with respect to energy policy is you can have a most 2 of the 3:

a) No Putin/MBS
b) No nuclear power
c) No local hydrocarbon energy

So the Western Left has to pick which one of the 3 to give up.

Well the "Western Left" has never been monolithically anti-nuclear power, and that is a trend I expect to see accelerate following recent events.

The issue is that given how long it takes to build and operate a nuclear power plant, it might just be too late for nuclear anyways. The moment to be pro-nuclear would have been in the mid 1980s, not now.

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.5%      +3.6%      +4.2%          +1.7%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.2%       +7.7%      +8.2%      +2.3%          +1.9%

Russia's economic prospects are getting stronger as expected 2022 CPI continues to fall and the expected fall in GDP is expected to be less than what was expected in April-May.   

In the collective West, the picture gets darker with expected GDP continuing to fall while expected CPI continues to surge.  PRC's growth picture is also getting worse not because of the war but due to repeating COVID-19 lockdowns.  The war is actually helping the PRC in terms of inflation as it is able to import Russian energy at a discount which counters growth in price levels.

The Russian June MoM CPI is expected to be negative so in terms of MoM figures, Russia is now entering into deflation while the inflationary surge continues in the rest of the collective west.

NYT article

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/25/world/russia-ukraine-war-news#countries-aligned-against-russia-face-growing-economic-pain-even-as-putin-proves-resilient-to-sanctions

"Countries aligned against Russia face growing economic pain, even as Putin proves resilient to sanctions."

Pretty much is a written version of my chart.  Namely

a) The momentum of the economic war between Russia and the collective West clearly is moving in favor of Russia with the blowback on the collective West getting worse and worse
b) Russia will take a bigger hit but those hits cannot be undone even if Russia ends the war.  The marginal economic hits going forward in the short and medium run will clearly hurt the collective West more
c) PRC is a winner of this Russia vs Collective West economic battle in terms of buying energy below market (so is India but not mentioned in the writeup)

[Velasco]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/19/energy/germany-russia-gas-supplies-winter-intl/index.html

"Germany to fire up coal stations as Russia squeezes gas supply"

The Western Left faces many impossible trinities.  One of them with respect to energy policy is you can have a most 2 of the 3:

a) No Putin/MBS
b) No nuclear power
c) No local hydrocarbon energy

So the Western Left has to pick which one of the 3 to give up.

Well the "Western Left" has never been monolithically anti-nuclear power, and that is a trend I expect to see accelerate following recent events.

Neither the so-called energy transtion, nor the disconnection of nuclear power olants, are policies exclusive of the Western Left. Remember that Angela Merkel reversed the decision to extend the liferime of Germany's nuclear plants, whiler her coreligionist Ursula Von der Leyen calls for a "joint European action  for more affordable, secure and" sustainable energy" -- she claims accelerating the transition to "clean energies" will make Europe less reliant in fossil fuel imports --. I'm somewhat sceptical about the EU Green Deal (particularly about the hydrogen), but that's another question.


The announcement made by Robert Halbeck is a serious step back. Anyone who has seen the last IPCC "Code Red" report knows that global heating is an enemy worse than Putin. We are running completely out of time

As ror the boomerang effect of the sanctions in Europe,  well... next autumn will be tough. I don't want to imagine about Africa and other continents

[jaichind]

https://www.unilad.co.uk/news/goat-of-kyiv-injures-40-russian-soldiers-after-triggering-boobytrap-20220624

"'Goat Of Kyiv' Injures 40 Russian Soldiers After Triggering Boobytrap"

This is pretty funny.  The goat of Kyiv should be given posthumous military honors by the Ukraine military.

[Omega21]

Bad news.

Seems UA units are trapped in Severodonetsk.

Account is pro Ru, but quoting UA sources, so seems legit.

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1540715613273788416?t=HZLApf8r_htgS8QZmhli...

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1540681327736938499?t=HZLApf8r_htgS8QZmhli...

[Woody]

Head of the Civil-military Administration, the mayor of Severodonetsk, and the Ukrainian military confirms that Severodonetsk and it's surroundings of Syrotyne, Borivske, Voronove has fallen to the enemy.. everything east of the river is most likely in Russian hands:

All eyes on Lysychansk now.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.5%      +3.6%      +4.2%          +1.7%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.2%       +7.7%      +8.2%      +2.3%          +1.9%

Russia's economic prospects are getting stronger as expected 2022 CPI continues to fall and the expected fall in GDP is expected to be less than what was expected in April-May.   

In the collective West, the picture gets darker with expected GDP continuing to fall while expected CPI continues to surge.  PRC's growth picture is also getting worse not because of the war but due to repeating COVID-19 lockdowns.  The war is actually helping the PRC in terms of inflation as it is able to import Russian energy at a discount which counters growth in price levels.

The Russian June MoM CPI is expected to be negative so in terms of MoM figures, Russia is now entering into deflation while the inflationary surge continues in the rest of the collective west.

UK looks set to go into economic meltdown.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1540802559304007680?s=20&t=AM0sWydSC...

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1540802564752429058?s=20&t=AM0sWydSC...

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.5%      +3.6%      +4.2%          +1.7%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.2%       +7.7%      +8.2%      +2.3%          +1.9%

Russia's economic prospects are getting stronger as expected 2022 CPI continues to fall and the expected fall in GDP is expected to be less than what was expected in April-May.   

In the collective West, the picture gets darker with expected GDP continuing to fall while expected CPI continues to surge.  PRC's growth picture is also getting worse not because of the war but due to repeating COVID-19 lockdowns.  The war is actually helping the PRC in terms of inflation as it is able to import Russian energy at a discount which counters growth in price levels.

The Russian June MoM CPI is expected to be negative so in terms of MoM figures, Russia is now entering into deflation while the inflationary surge continues in the rest of the collective west.

UK looks set to go into economic meltdown.

I agree that is why I think the UK numbers seem too optimistic.  On the other hand that is what the average investment bank research reports say for now so I have to publish as is.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.5%      +3.6%      +4.2%          +1.7%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.2%       +7.7%      +8.2%      +2.3%          +1.9%

Russia's economic prospects are getting stronger as expected 2022 CPI continues to fall and the expected fall in GDP is expected to be less than what was expected in April-May.   

In the collective West, the picture gets darker with expected GDP continuing to fall while expected CPI continues to surge.  PRC's growth picture is also getting worse not because of the war but due to repeating COVID-19 lockdowns.  The war is actually helping the PRC in terms of inflation as it is able to import Russian energy at a discount which counters growth in price levels.

The Russian June MoM CPI is expected to be negative so in terms of MoM figures, Russia is now entering into deflation while the inflationary surge continues in the rest of the collective west.

UK looks set to go into economic meltdown.

I agree that is why I think the UK numbers seem too optimistic.  On the other hand that is what the average investment bank research reports say for now so I have to publish as is.

Yes, I have a wealthy English friend living in Australia, and he told me last week that the UK are not in good shape.

The monthly English national debt interest bill alone is billions of dollars.

https://news.sky.com/story/government-forced-to-make-record-interest-payment-on-public-debt-12639029

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1540802559304007680?s=20&t=AM0sWydSC...

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1540802564752429058?s=20&t=AM0sWydSC...

The Patriot looks like the Subaru Baja a little bit. I thought that they couldn’t have homosexual propaganda.

[The Dowager Mod]

Exactly, people need to chill.
https://twitter.com/Angry_Staffer/status/1540840552190689280

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Exactly, people need to chill.
https://twitter.com/Angry_Staffer/status/1540840552190689280

It is broadly true that attrition of forces matters more than small territorial changes at this point, but attrition is not a one-way street (and it is difficult to know, at this point and without government information, what Ukraine and Russia lost in the battle of Severodonetsk). Additionally, the short-term exhaustion of Russian offensive capabilities would not necessarily imply it was unable to defend captured territory.

[jaichind]

It is broadly true that attrition of forces matters more than small territorial changes at this point, but attrition is not a one-way street (and it is difficult to know, at this point and without government information, what Ukraine and Russia lost in the battle of Severodonetsk). Additionally, the short-term exhaustion of Russian offensive capabilities would not necessarily imply it was unable to defend captured territory.

What is critical is to know is the attrition of highly trained Ukrainian troops.  Assuming the ammo situation does not become disastrous for Ukraine in the coming months the numerical advantage of Ukraine will make it hard for Russia to gain ground some number of months from now (perhaps toward the end of 2022?).  In the meantime, Russia will gain ground and then go over to the defensive to burn up Ukraine's manpower and resources.  In that situation having a good number of highly trained troops will be critical for Ukraine to sustain offensive actions since having a numerical advantage is its own value on the defense but will count for a lot less when Ukraine needs to go on the offensive.  This is why I am confused at the apparent Ukraine's strategy of throwing its best-trained troops to reinforce its Severodonetsk area.  Knowing what was the burn rate for ammo and training men for Ukraine during this battle would give us a better sense of if it was worth it for Ukraine.

[bilaps]

Exactly, people need to chill.
https://twitter.com/Angry_Staffer/status/1540840552190689280

Lol, what a nonsense. You can spin it as you like, it's not going to change the outcome.

Every town or city Russia takes they say "yeah but they averted Russian troops". Averted from where? Like Russians didn't want to take Mariupol or Severodonetsk. I mean it would be funny take if it isn't so stupid.

[jaichind]

Exactly, people need to chill.

Lol, what a nonsense. You can spin it as you like, it's not going to change the outcome.

Every town or city Russia takes they say "yeah but they averted Russian troops". Averted from where? Like Russians didn't want to take Mariupol or Severodonetsk. I mean it would be funny take if it isn't so stupid.

I would not call it nonsense.  Most of that stuff is just repeating what sites like ISW say.  But one should view ISW as what it is which is a pro-Ukraine propaganda outlet which one should take what they say with a grain of salt just like plenty of stuff out there that I would label as pro-Russia propaganda.  I would not any of them nonsense but would label them as giving insight on what the intentions of both sides are which is useful.  What is not clear is whether what is taking place matches what their (both sides) intentions might be.  The fog of war makes it hard to tell what is taking place.  In the meantime, propaganda venues like ISW and other pro-Russia sources do tell us what they intend to happened.

[bilaps]

Exactly, people need to chill.

Lol, what a nonsense. You can spin it as you like, it's not going to change the outcome.

Every town or city Russia takes they say "yeah but they averted Russian troops". Averted from where? Like Russians didn't want to take Mariupol or Severodonetsk. I mean it would be funny take if it isn't so stupid.

I would not call it nonsense.  Most of that stuff is just repeating what sites like ISW say.  But one should view ISW as what it is which is a pro-Ukraine propaganda outlet which one should take what they say with a grain of salt just like plenty of stuff out there that I would label as pro-Russia propaganda.  I would not any of them nonsense but would label them as giving insight on what the intentions of both sides are which is useful.  What is not clear is whether what is taking place matches what their (both sides) intentions might be.  The fog of war makes it hard to tell what is taking place.  In the meantime, propaganda venues like ISW and other pro-Russia sources do tell us what they intend to happened.

I disagree. If you call attack on SD diverting resources from other fronts and so blatantly claim that Russians are not be able to hold it without any shred od evidence it may be propaganda but it's a textbook nonsense. When Lysychansk falls, Severodonetsk will be as far from the frontline as Mariupol.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/russian-troops-kill-up-to-80-polish-fighters-in-ukraine-moscow/articleshow/92455028.cms

"Russian troops kill 'up to 80' Polish fighters in Ukraine: Moscow"

Russia MoD claims to have killed up to 80 Polish mercenaries as part of a missile strike.  My impression is that the Polish form the biggest contingent of mercenaries on the Ukraine side.

[Lord Halifax]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/russian-troops-kill-up-to-80-polish-fighters-in-ukraine-moscow/articleshow/92455028.cms

"Russian troops kill 'up to 80' Polish fighters in Ukraine: Moscow"

Russia MoD claims to have killed up to 80 Polish mercenaries as part of a missile strike.  My impression is that the Polish form the biggest contingent of mercenaries on the Ukraine side.

Could you please not use the term "mercenaries" about international volunteers, there is an international definition of what a mercenary is and paid foreign volunteers in a regular army aren't included (if they were the Gurkhas in the British army would also be mercenaries, which would be ridiculous).

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Sandbagger_01/status/1540700523258683392
Contrary to what some certain pro-Russia poster here wants to push the battle of Severdonetsk went about how Ukraine wanted it to by force Russia to exhaust it’s firepower and then successfully withdraw to better defensive position

[Storr]

Former Swedish Prime Minister:

https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1540954364654886912?s=20&t=j0Kf3cVAgqWM...

Former President of Estonia:

https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1540994849406652417?s=20&t=j0Kf3cVAgq...

[jaichind]

Pictures like this do not compute for me

1) Even if we accept the Russian accusations of Nazis are Russian propaganda, let's all agree that the Azov Battalion are socially and culturally conservative and that if they were in the USA at the minimum their views would be like Pat Buchanan

2) This does not help the Ukraine cause.  This is exactly how you lose public opinion in places like India.  The Indian social conservatives see this and say "I see what the score is, I am for Russia."  Those that are not social conservative would view this as Western hypocrisy due to 1) and say "I am not against Ukraine but if the hypocritical West is going to support Ukraine then I am for Russia"

3) A good part of PRC public opinion is aligned with PRC geopolitical interests so they are going to be pro-Russia no matter what but a large bloc of the rest will pretty much go through a decision tree process much like Indians as described in 2)