Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Ukraine and Moldova are a step closer to EU membership. This is great news, though both still have work to do, especially through fighting corruption and the rule of law.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1540039333117394948

https://twitter.com/terischultz/status/1540046466479185921

It's official:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_enlargement_of_the_European_Union#Association_Trio

The EU now has:

3 candidates negotiating:

Serbia - screening completed March 24, 2015
Montenegro - screening completed June 27, 2013
Turkey - screening completed Oct. 13, 2006 (effectively frozen, cause Erdogan)

4 candidates:

Albania - candidate status since June 24, 2014
North Macedonia - candidate status since Dec. 17, 2005 (Thank the now resolved name dispute with Greece and Bulgaria's still ongoing dispute over language and culture for the long wait. For comparison, Croatia achieved candidate status on June 18, 2004 and became an EU member on July 1, 2013)
Ukraine, and Moldova - candidate status since June 23, 2022

2 applicants:

Bosnia and Herzegovina - applied Feb. 15, 2016
Georgia - applied March 3, 2022

[NOVA Green]

So was going to post this the other day when there was a bit of chatter on this thread regarding Ukrainian partisan resistance in Kherson Oblast and in particular Kherson city itself.

It was an article I read in The Economist a few weeks back, about how the City of Melitopol actually appears to be an even bigger player in the role of Ukrainian "Urban Guerrilla / Partisan" formations than their comrades over in Kherson City.

Got to keep my quotes limited since it is all behind the paywall and all that, but honestly the digital subscriptions really aren't that pricey (Personally I have the digital + paper copy since it's easier to read while commuting on mass transit, etc...), so well worth the price of admission for any Atlas Forum member interested in International Politics, Economics, and Sociology, and for those who can't afford to purchase, a copy will be available in most public libraries within medium size cities within the US.

The russians took the strategic rail-hub city of Melitopol on the third day of the war, their route apparently greased by Ukrainian turncoats. Controlling the city, a crucial segment of Vladimir Putin’s land bridge to Crimea, has proven somewhat trickier. Every few days brings a surprising report: an armoured train destroyed and a grenade attack on a command post (May 18th); railway tracks and a radar station blown up (May 22nd); a pro-Ukrainian rally (May 29th); and a collaborator’s house hit by an explosion (May 30th). Ukraine claims its partisans have killed more than 100 Russian soldiers behind enemy lines in Melitopol. “Our people are doing everything to make sure the land burns under the feet of the occupiers,” says the town’s mayor, Ivan Fedorov, now safe in Ukrainian-controlled territory.

...

Ukraine’s underground resistance in occupied territories is co-ordinated by a unit of its armed forces called the Special Operations Forces (sso). The division was formed in 2015 after attempts at partisan activity failed disastrously in the early stages of the war in the Donbas. A former operative in the unit, who asked to remain anonymous, says the work is split into three parts: military action, support operations and psychological warfare. “Say the task is to stop the enemy from moving more reserves to Melitopol,” he explains. “The sso assigns special forces the task of blowing up a bridge, it asks partisans to damage the railway, and it gets psy-ops [psychological operations] to print leaflets to say we’re on the watch. So in the end, only half the troops dare to come.”

...

Vladimir Zhemchugov ran dozens of partisan operations for Ukraine in his native Luhansk in 2014-15, before he was maimed by a mine and captured. He says the current resistance mixes professional soldiers and volunteers “60-40, in that order”. Mr Zhemchugov, who now helps train volunteers, says Ukrainian authorities had laid down the basic structure for an insurgency in a few rushed months before the war. A network of secret arms dumps, safe houses and potential sympathisers now exists across the country; in some cases, criminal networks were co-opted. But the preparation was less thorough than it could have been. It was apparently undermined by officials who later switched to support Russia. “The security services and police proved to be our weakest link.”

....

Tons more where this came from in the article for anyone who want to purchase...

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/06/05/ukraines-partisans-are-hitting-russian-soldiers-behind-their-own-lines

Interestingly enough, just today Politico posted an article totally 100% non-paywall, but again doing limited quotes:

Zelenskyy wants to replace Ukraine’s top spy after security failures

Ivan Bakanov was tapped to revamp the controversial Security Service of Ukraine. But after a string of failures and the loss of Kherson, he’s fallen out of favor with the Ukrainian president.

KYIV — You think you know someone, and then Russia invades your country and your childhood friend turned top intelligence official flubs it and some of his senior spies flee their posts, apparently helping the Kremlin’s forces avoid landmines and direct its attack aircraft to blast your cities.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy isn’t getting a lot of sleep these days, and the man he appointed to lead Ukraine’s domestic intelligence and security agency can’t be helping matters. Ivan Bakanov — his friend from way back who once ran his entertainment company and then his presidential campaign — is on thin ice in Kyiv.

....

Now some feel vindicated as criticisms of Bakanov reverberate in the halls of government and parliament. Many in Kyiv allege that he failed to respond to Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24 and properly command his behemoth department of over 30,000 agents.

....

The officials and the Western diplomat all said the concern is greater than just Bakanov — it’s also about the decisions of several senior agency personnel in the first hours and days of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that may have cost the country precious territory, including the strategic city of Kherson.

Gen. Serhiy Kryvoruchko, head of Kherson’s SBU directorate, ordered his officers to evacuate the city before Russian troops stormed it, against Zelenskyy’s orders, authorities allege. Meanwhile, Col. Ihor Sadokhin, his assistant and head of the local office’s Anti-Terrorist Center, is alleged by authorities to have tipped off Russian forces heading north from Crimea about the locations of Ukrainian mines and helped coordinate a flight path for the enemy’s aircraft while he fled in a convoy of SBU agents going west.

... 

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/23/zelenskyy-top-spy-security-failures-00041794

Thoughts Atlas Hive???

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It seems the battle in Luhansk is turning in Russia's favor.  It seems they will achieve victory here in the coming weeks.   I have to assume that after this they will target the rest of Donetsk which like Luhansk is heavily fortified.   Assuming they can win there I assume the targets after that would be: Kharkov, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk which they might to get to late in the Summer.  I think Russia at best and try to take 2 out of the 4 but it is unlikely they can take all 4.  My impression that within Russia itself there is a lot of pressure to take Odesa.  Assuming Russia can win the battle for Donetsk  it will be interesting to see what they focus on after that.

Taking Odessa would probably require taking Mykolaiv.

Doesn't jaichind know he should seek medical attention if he has an erection that lasts for more than four hours?

[Virginiá]

I was looking for a comprehensive list of weapons given to Ukraine so far, and it's hard to find one fully updated to this moment since aid keeps pouring in frequently, but this one is pretty good:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/15/infographic-what-weapons-has-ukraine-received-from-the-us-and-al

This looks even more detailed but hasn't been updated in over a month:

https://www.armyrecognition.com/ukraine_-_russia_invasion_conflict_war/full_list_of_us_european_weapons_and_military_equipment_delivered_to_ukraine.html

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Governor of Luhansk and various unofficial sources have implied Ukraine withdrew the last of its forces from Severodonetsk last night.

Additionally:

https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1540247955046912001
As always, treat the inevitable hype with caution. It’s likely that only 4 systems have arrived so far - they’re not likely to make much of a short-term difference (outside of maybe Snake Islans, if Ukraine is prepared to expend a fair number of GMLRS there).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I was looking for a comprehensive list of weapons given to Ukraine so far, and it's hard to find one fully updated to this moment since aid keeps pouring in frequently, but this one is pretty good:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/15/infographic-what-weapons-has-ukraine-received-from-the-us-and-al

This looks even more detailed but hasn't been updated in over a month:

https://www.armyrecognition.com/ukraine_-_russia_invasion_conflict_war/full_list_of_us_european_weapons_and_military_equipment_delivered_to_ukraine.html

Oryx’s list of heavy weapons transfers has some errors, but it isn’t bad, either.

The German government put out a report a few days ago which was pretty detailed regarding their transfers. All it failed to mention was the details of their first successful ring swap - 14 Leopard 2s and an armoured recovery vehicle exchanged for 20 T-72M1s sent to Ukraine. What surprised me most was that they had any MiG-29 parts to give despite selling the last of their airframes (even including non-functional ones) over 20 years ago, with the exception of a lone museum copy.

Some Ukrainian partners are much less transparent about what they give to Ukraine than Germany and the US. Fortunately, their flights to airports where aid (both humanitarian and military) is dropped off are tracked by this account.

[jaichind]

It seems the battle in Luhansk is turning in Russia's favor.  It seems they will achieve victory here in the coming weeks.   I have to assume that after this they will target the rest of Donetsk which like Luhansk is heavily fortified.   Assuming they can win there I assume the targets after that would be: Kharkov, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk which they might to get to late in the Summer.  I think Russia at best and try to take 2 out of the 4 but it is unlikely they can take all 4.  My impression that within Russia itself there is a lot of pressure to take Odesa.  Assuming Russia can win the battle for Donetsk  it will be interesting to see what they focus on after that.

Taking Odessa would probably require taking Mykolaiv.

That is true and for sure this would not be easy.  For this to take place Russia has to finish off what they need to get done in Donetsk so we are talking about a few months from now.  Hopefully, a peace deal is worked out before it comes to a Russian attack on Odesa although it is clear there is a lot of domestic pressure in Russia not to stop until Odesa is captured.

[jaichind]

UK defense thinktank Royal United Services Institute came out with "The Return of Industrial Warfare"

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare

Some of the themes mimic some of my thoughts on the need to measure ammunition burn and production rates of both sides as a proxy for the sustainability of the war for both sides.  Now that the war is no longer a war of movement the role of "smart" weapons is now less important and the article quotes a Stalin point "quantity still has a quality of its own."   The key point is the industrial capacity to produce ammunition, even if "dumb", in mass is still critical and on that point, Russia's industrial base to produce such ammunition is still very significant and that does not even count the even bigger PRC mass industrial base that in theory can eventually be used to support Russia if needed.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It seems the battle in Luhansk is turning in Russia's favor.  It seems they will achieve victory here in the coming weeks.   I have to assume that after this they will target the rest of Donetsk which like Luhansk is heavily fortified.   Assuming they can win there I assume the targets after that would be: Kharkov, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk which they might to get to late in the Summer.  I think Russia at best and try to take 2 out of the 4 but it is unlikely they can take all 4.  My impression that within Russia itself there is a lot of pressure to take Odesa.  Assuming Russia can win the battle for Donetsk  it will be interesting to see what they focus on after that.

Taking Odessa would probably require taking Mykolaiv.

That is true and for sure this would not be easy.  For this to take place Russia has to finish off what they need to get done in Donetsk so we are talking about a few months from now.  Hopefully, a peace deal is worked out before it comes to a Russian attack on Odesa although it is clear there is a lot of domestic pressure in Russia not to stop until Odesa is captured.

There is on Russian social media, but we should be careful not to overestimate the strength of this sentiment in the general population.

Right now, capturing Odessa looks improbable in the short term (i.e. before an operational pause) and tricky in the medium term; if the public demand for it was huge, then Russian leadership would probably have felt safe calling for a general mobilisation, which is still the most reliable route to securing major Russian gains quickly.

I used to think mobilisation was a matter of time, but the Russian military has recently pursued recruitment steps which suggest otherwise, such as combat deployment of officers and units typically reserved for training. This would obviously hinder any overt full mobilisation effort and indicates the government isn’t planning to pursue it; it most likely considers the military benefits (such as greater ability to capture large cities) to be worth less than the political risk incurred at home.

[jaichind]

Russia MoD claims 2000 Ukrainian troops are trapped in the Gorskoe-Zolotoe pocket.  Ukrainian sources claim most of their forces got away.  I guess we will find out after the pocket is liquidated.

[Person Man]

It seems the battle in Luhansk is turning in Russia's favor.  It seems they will achieve victory here in the coming weeks.   I have to assume that after this they will target the rest of Donetsk which like Luhansk is heavily fortified.   Assuming they can win there I assume the targets after that would be: Kharkov, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk which they might to get to late in the Summer.  I think Russia at best and try to take 2 out of the 4 but it is unlikely they can take all 4.  My impression that within Russia itself there is a lot of pressure to take Odesa.  Assuming Russia can win the battle for Donetsk  it will be interesting to see what they focus on after that.

Taking Odessa would probably require taking Mykolaiv.

Doesn't jaichind know he should seek medical attention if he has an erection that lasts for more than four hours?

It’s called a priapism ^^.

[jaichind]

https://www.profil.at/ausland/militaerexperte-reisner-zum-ukraine-krieg-jetzt-herrscht-katerstimmung/402051637

Austrian Magazine Profile interviews military observer Col. Reisner.  He pretty much makes the same points I have

1) Luhansk  is gone for Ukraians
2) Donetsk is next but it will be the end of Summer before Russia takes that over
3) Russia is likely to go after Odesa after that although Ukraine will also try to retake Kherson
4) War of attrition by artillery dual means ammunition supplies are critical and Russia does seem to have the edge there.
5) Desertion on the Ukrainian side is becoming a problem

[bilaps]

But what about famous Kherson offensive?

HIMARS will help Ukraine no doubt. They will help in killing Russians in which place will come some new Russians. It won't change trajectory of a war. Ukraine had SMERCH systems on the begining of the war, they have Tochkas still..

[jaichind]

https://multipolarista.com/2022/06/22/africa-zelensky-call-neutrality-ukraine/

"Only 4 of 55 African leaders attend Zelensky call, showing neutrality on Ukraine and Russia"

France and Germany pressured African Union leaders for months to join a brief Zoom call with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky. 51 of 55 African heads of state (93%) boycotted the meeting, showing clear neutrality over the Western proxy war with Russia.

It seems African countries are not blaming Russia for the current food export impasse or at least not openly.

In the short term, openly opposing Russia (beyond, perhaps, criticism) risks putting countries in need of grain to the back of a queue. Ukraine can no longer supply it in the short term and Russia has a bigger - but still insufficient - harvest thanks to what it's stolen. There will be a shortage and the AU is not cohesive enough to form a united front, so famine will inevitably be more acute in some countries than others depending on who buys first. There will be no buyers' cartel in Africa, let alone globally.

In the long term, trying to wage war on Europe by bringing famine to countries which relied on Ukrainian grain probably isn't going to do much for Russia in these countries. Ukrainian ports aren't likely to remain closed indefinitely and a deliberately induced famine this year may lead to better planning/sourcing/planting elsewhere in future years.

Reminds me of Machiavelli "It is better to be feared than to be loved"

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://multipolarista.com/2022/06/22/africa-zelensky-call-neutrality-ukraine/

"Only 4 of 55 African leaders attend Zelensky call, showing neutrality on Ukraine and Russia"

France and Germany pressured African Union leaders for months to join a brief Zoom call with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky. 51 of 55 African heads of state (93%) boycotted the meeting, showing clear neutrality over the Western proxy war with Russia.

It seems African countries are not blaming Russia for the current food export impasse or at least not openly.

In the short term, openly opposing Russia (beyond, perhaps, criticism) risks putting countries in need of grain to the back of a queue. Ukraine can no longer supply it in the short term and Russia has a bigger - but still insufficient - harvest thanks to what it's stolen. There will be a shortage and the AU is not cohesive enough to form a united front, so famine will inevitably be more acute in some countries than others depending on who buys first. There will be no buyers' cartel in Africa, let alone globally.

In the long term, trying to wage war on Europe by bringing famine to countries which relied on Ukrainian grain probably isn't going to do much for Russia in these countries. Ukrainian ports aren't likely to remain closed indefinitely and a deliberately induced famine this year may lead to better planning/sourcing/planting elsewhere in future years.

Reminds me of Machiavelli "It is better to be feared than to be loved"

Perhaps, but - as with the European sanctions and with Russia's weaponisation of gas - making oneself an unreliable supplier incentivises divestment (which is not to say it will be affordable at the right scale).

Russian ties to African countries are somewhat dependent on political goodwill which was easy enough for the USSR to accumulate. The bar for being an ally is low for countries that have suffered some combination of European colonialism and American/Chinese robber barons - but gloating about starvation seems likely to put Russia under it.

Whether the move makes sense really depends on whether the short/medium term gain is greater than the long term risk of loss - personally, I don't expect much will be gained from this, because I don't believe starving Africa to punish Europe and America will work.

[Lord Halifax]

But what about famous Kherson offensive?

HIMARS will help Ukraine no doubt. They will help in killing Russians in which place will come some new Russians. It won't change trajectory of a war. Ukraine had SMERCH systems on the beginning of the war, they have Tochkas still..

Nah, Russia is no longer a country with a nearly infinite supply of young men and mass mobilization is too politically dangerous anyway.

[The Dowager Mod]

Yup.
https://twitter.com/Angry_Staffer/status/1540328333862477824

[CumbrianLefty]

But what about famous Kherson offensive?

HIMARS will help Ukraine no doubt. They will help in killing Russians in which place will come some new Russians. It won't change trajectory of a war. Ukraine had SMERCH systems on the beginning of the war, they have Tochkas still..

Nah, Russia is no longer a country with a nearly infinite supply of young men and mass mobilization is too politically dangerous anyway.

Really, the number of people who think this is still the 1940s is pretty astonishing.

[Hindsight was 2020]

But what about famous Kherson offensive?

HIMARS will help Ukraine no doubt. They will help in killing Russians in which place will come some new Russians. It won't change trajectory of a war. Ukraine had SMERCH systems on the beginning of the war, they have Tochkas still..

Nah, Russia is no longer a country with a nearly infinite supply of young men and mass mobilization is too politically dangerous anyway.

Really, the number of people who think this is still the 1940s is pretty astonishing.

Seriously 1940 Russia had Ukraine, all the Baltic states and Caucasus, Kazakhstan, etc apart of it with all their manpower and resources apart of it

[Virginiá]

Seriously 1940 Russia had Ukraine, all the Baltic states and Caucasus, Kazakhstan, etc apart of it with all their manpower and resources apart of it

They were also highly motivated in what was a collective fight for their lives as Nazi Germany was determined to exterminate most of the Slavic people and enslave the rest. I can't think of a more ideal situation for a country to mobilize every person who can fight without backlash.

[Virginiá]

But what about famous Kherson offensive?

HIMARS will help Ukraine no doubt. They will help in killing Russians in which place will come some new Russians. It won't change trajectory of a war. Ukraine had SMERCH systems on the begining of the war, they have Tochkas still..

A major issue with Ukraine's old Soviet weapons is ammunition. Aside from the fact that this level of warfare is going to exhaust even a well-armed country's stocks quickly (absent new production, which Ukraine can't really do), in the years before the invasion, several major Ukrainian ammunition storage facilities were catastrophically sabotaged (example), ostensibly by Russia or its supporters. These destroyed stocks most definitely included rockets. And if you believe other reports to be true, Russia has also been on a buying spree of artillery and other Soviet ammunition before the war as well, leaving Ukraine unable to replenish its stocks fully.

The limited number of MLRS systems given so far is probably both a reflection of the smaller/higher value of them, and also that the Ukrainians needed to be trained on them first. What they were given now really isn't enough but if allied countries start donating as many MLRS systems as they did M109 self-propelled howitzers, then yeah, it might, actually.

[jaichind]

Yup.
https://twitter.com/Angry_Staffer/status/1540328333862477824

I assume this will also mean pulling out of Lysychansk.  If so I agree this is a smart move by the Ukraine armed forces to avoid the danger of encirclement.  One follow-up question would be what sort of defensive line they plan to fall back to.  One advantage the Ukraine armed forces in had in the Luhansk and Donetsk front is that they have 8 years to fortify the front and put in units that had many years of training, especially with small arms.  Now they have to give up these fortified positions which is necessary to avoid encirclement it would be useful to learn what sort defensive fortifications the Ukraine armed forces were able to build up for their second line of defense they will have to retreat to.

[Person Man]

Yup.
https://twitter.com/Angry_Staffer/status/1540328333862477824

I assume this will also mean pulling out of Lysychansk.  If so I agree this is a smart move by the Ukraine armed forces to avoid the danger of encirclement.  One follow-up question would be what sort of defensive line they plan to fall back to.  One advantage the Ukraine armed forces in had in the Luhansk and Donetsk front is that they have 8 years to fortify the front and put in units that had many years of training, especially with small arms.  Now they have to give up these fortified positions which is necessary to avoid encirclement it would be useful to learn what sort defensive fortifications the Ukraine armed forces were able to build up for their second line of defense they will have to retreat to.

The urgency of the situation is heavily dependent on how many bodies they have been able to produce.

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.5%      +3.6%      +4.2%          +1.7%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.2%       +7.7%      +8.2%      +2.3%          +1.9%

Russia's economic prospects are getting stronger as expected 2022 CPI continues to fall and the expected fall in GDP is expected to be less than what was expected in April-May.   

In the collective West, the picture gets darker with expected GDP continuing to fall while expected CPI continues to surge.  PRC's growth picture is also getting worse not because of the war but due to repeating COVID-19 lockdowns.  The war is actually helping the PRC in terms of inflation as it is able to import Russian energy at a discount which counters growth in price levels.

The Russian June MoM CPI is expected to be negative so in terms of MoM figures, Russia is now entering into deflation while the inflationary surge continues in the rest of the collective west.

[jaichind]

If Ukrainian forces do pull out of  Lysychansk the next logical defensive lines should be Seversk-Bakhmut but more likely Sloviansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhovka-Konstantinovka in Northern  Donetsk should be a stronger line of defense to wear down the Russian forces.  If Ukrainian forces did their homework then this line will be hard to outflank and the Russians will have to use weeks of mass artillery to wear down this new line before they can push through this new line.