Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yes, but depending on what is being imported, it is so easy to cheat via "transhipment."

The idea is to impoverish Russia relatively speaking so that it has less capacity to finance war.

An issue I would appreciate your thoughts on, is the correlation between a free and open society (that hews to the rule of law more or less) and the ability to be cutting edge in technology. China seems able to progress without doing very well on those metrics, unlike Russia. Will that eventually bite China in the butt down the road, or is the respect for authority and obedience in Chinese culture its antidote or offsetting factor to that?

I am not sure Russia's underperformance in this war is due to poor technology.  Russia's military technology is cutting edge.  What Russia lacked was the industrial power to produce a large number of smart weapons to support a precision weapons intensive war AND produce enough low technology armaments to support a manpower-intensive attrition war.  Russia tried the first style of war and just ran out of high-tech weapons and now has to switch to a low-tech war to try to win a war of attrition which they can win if they had the political will to mobilize a larger military force.  So far they do not seem to want to pay a political price for that.

A low-tech war of attrition, against an army backed by the United States with high-tech precision weaponry, is going to result in a lot of deaths.  I'm sure the Russian people will be happy to see their teenage sons conscripted to go get owned by 21st-century artillery in the Great Patriotic War (read: Putin personally wanting to conquer Ukraine and destroy its culture).

It’s quite likely that Ukraine will get more advanced equipment if the conflict drags on, but Western artillery that has actually been delivered so far is 2005 standard - probably not much better (if at all) than the bulk of modernised Russian artillery, although more than a match for the many pieces that haven’t been upgraded. Concerns about protecting ip/state secrets, along with cost concerns, will hinder Ukraine’s attempts to modernise its armed forces, and Russia may well be able to win a “low-tech” war of attrition in the Donbas.

[Torie]

If a  free and fair election were held in Crimea, what percentage of the mostly Russian residents (that is my recollection, as what this old addled brain recalls reading), would vote to be a part of Ukraine rather than Russia, assuming the violence were otherwise over because Russia was expelled from the balance of Ukraine due to getting its butt kicked? Would it matter as to whether or not Putin were still in power?

Anyone have any erudite thoughts?

[Oryxslayer]

If a  free and fair election were held in Crimea, what percentage of the mostly Russian residents (that is my recollection, as what this old addled brain recalls reading), would vote to be a part of Ukraine rather than Russia, assuming the violence were otherwise over because Russia was expelled from the balance of Ukraine due to getting its butt kicked? Would it matter as to whether or not Putin were still in power?

Anyone have any erudite thoughts?

When Ukraine voted for Independence, Crimea only voted 54-46 for independence. If said hypothetical referendum were held under the auspices of Russia or Ukriane, there would no doubt be peer pressure to vote one way. If it was truly without influence, one expects Russia would win that poll given the people they have encouraged to migrate in, as well as 8 years of economic ties which would be disrupted if voting the other way.

Unfortunately, such a poll is unlikely to happen. If we get to the point where Ukraine is driving down the peninsula, there will probably be expulsions of all the Russians who have moved into territory recognized to be Ukrainian - if they didn't flee first. Given the history of the region, this probably sweeps up many who always lived in Crimea, but now identify with Russia and run afoul of the returning government.

[Torie]

Yes, but depending on what is being imported, it is so easy to cheat via "transhipment."

The idea is to impoverish Russia relatively speaking so that it has less capacity to finance war.

An issue I would appreciate your thoughts on, is the correlation between a free and open society (that hews to the rule of law more or less) and the ability to be cutting edge in technology. China seems able to progress without doing very well on those metrics, unlike Russia. Will that eventually bite China in the butt down the road, or is the respect for authority and obedience in Chinese culture its antidote or offsetting factor to that?

I am not sure Russia's underperformance in this war is due to poor technology.  Russia's military technology is cutting edge.  What Russia lacked was the industrial power to produce a large number of smart weapons to support a precision weapons intensive war AND produce enough low technology armaments to support a manpower-intensive attrition war.  Russia tried the first style of war and just ran out of high-tech weapons and now has to switch to a low-tech war to try to win a war of attrition which they can win if they had the political will to mobilize a larger military force.  So far they do not seem to want to pay a political price for that.

A low-tech war of attrition, against an army backed by the United States with high-tech precision weaponry, is going to result in a lot of deaths.  I'm sure the Russian people will be happy to see their teenage sons conscripted to go get owned by 21st-century artillery in the Great Patriotic War (read: Putin personally wanting to conquer Ukraine and destroy its culture).

It’s quite likely that Ukraine will get more advanced equipment if the conflict drags on, but Western artillery that has actually been delivered so far is 2005 standard - probably not much better (if at all) than the bulk of modernised Russian artillery, although more than a match for the many pieces that haven’t been upgraded. Concerns about protecting ip/state secrets, along with cost concerns, will hinder Ukraine’s attempts to modernise its armed forces, and Russia may well be able to win a “low-tech” war of attrition in the Donbas.

I wish to thank you at this time for your splendid contributions to this thread. Thank you for being at once you and here. Best.

[AndyHogan14]

If a  free and fair election were held in Crimea, what percentage of the mostly Russian residents (that is my recollection, as what this old addled brain recalls reading), would vote to be a part of Ukraine rather than Russia, assuming the violence were otherwise over because Russia was expelled from the balance of Ukraine due to getting its butt kicked? Would it matter as to whether or not Putin were still in power?

Anyone have any erudite thoughts?

I always felt that any free and fair referendum in Crimea would have been incredibly close. I cannot imagine that many ethnic Ukrainians (~25%) or Tatars (~10%) would vote to join Russia and that puts us at around 35% of the peninsula's population. Then, it comes down to the ethnic Russians (~61%) and others (~4%). I do not think that they would be as unified as the other two groups making a theoretical referendum really close. If one assumes that Ukrainians and Tatars vote ~98% in favor of staying with Ukraine, it would require somewhere around 22-23% of Russians to vote to remain with Ukraine as well. If the "others" vote for Ukraine at the same rate as the Ukrainians and Tatars (possible, but unlikely), then you would need only ~19-20% of the Russian population to vote to stay with Ukraine. Polling pre-2014 was all over the place though with one poll saying even ethnic Ukrainians would vote to join Russia (which seems hard to believe) which put Russian unification at around 64%. There was another, however, that showed just over a majority supporting the status quo (autonomy within Ukraine) which probably had breakdowns similar to what I worked out above.

Long story short, the ~96-97% that "voted" for union with Russia in 2014 is laughable. It is possible that a majority supported union with Russia, but certainly not that lopsided of a number.

snip

When Ukraine voted for Independence, Crimea only voted 54-46 for independence. If said hypothetical referendum were held under the auspices of Russia or Ukriane, there would no doubt be peer pressure to vote one way. If it was truly without influence, one expects Russia would win that poll given the people they have encouraged to migrate in, as well as 8 years of economic ties which would be disrupted if voting the other way.

Unfortunately, such a poll is unlikely to happen. If we get to the point where Ukraine is driving down the peninsula, there will probably be expulsions of all the Russians who have moved into territory recognized to be Ukrainian - if they didn't flee first. Given the history of the region, this probably sweeps up many who always lived in Crimea, but now identify with Russia and run afoul of the returning government.

If Ukraine were to somehow retake Crimea, the settlers post-2014 should be deported and any property that was confiscated from Ukrainians/Tatars that fled should be returned. I also think a loyalty oath should be required in the pre-February 24 territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea before voting/citizen rights are restored.

[NOVA Green]

Yet another breakthrough moment of Russian State TV...

Looks like maybe more cracks are starting to emerge among the Russian "elite" consensus regarding the War in Ukraine?

A retired Russian colonel told state media on Monday that the invasion of Ukraine is not going the way Russia is portraying it, and that the global isolation facing the country is more daunting than Russian leaders are letting on.

“After all, the main deficiency of our military-political position is that, in a way, we are in full geopolitical isolation, and that, however much we would hate to admit this, virtually the entire world is against us,” Mikhail Khodaryonok said, according to a video translated by the BBC’s Francis Scarr. “And it’s that situation that we need to get out of.”

When asked about the current state of the war, Khodaryonok, who has given frank assessments of the war on Russian airwaves in recent days, urged viewers to be cautious about any information put out by Russia on how Ukrainian forces “are allegedly on the verge of some kind of crisis in morale and so on.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/16/russia-ukraine-war-news-live-updates-putin/#link-3M57NDP4CZFZ5NPHHLL3NON3VE

[DINGO Joe]

Yet another breakthrough moment of Russian State TV...

Looks like maybe more cracks are starting to emerge among the Russian "elite" consensus regarding the War in Ukraine?

A retired Russian colonel told state media on Monday that the invasion of Ukraine is not going the way Russia is portraying it, and that the global isolation facing the country is more daunting than Russian leaders are letting on.

“After all, the main deficiency of our military-political position is that, in a way, we are in full geopolitical isolation, and that, however much we would hate to admit this, virtually the entire world is against us,” Mikhail Khodaryonok said, according to a video translated by the BBC’s Francis Scarr. “And it’s that situation that we need to get out of.”

When asked about the current state of the war, Khodaryonok, who has given frank assessments of the war on Russian airwaves in recent days, urged viewers to be cautious about any information put out by Russia on how Ukrainian forces “are allegedly on the verge of some kind of crisis in morale and so on.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/16/russia-ukraine-war-news-live-updates-putin/#link-3M57NDP4CZFZ5NPHHLL3NON3VE

Here's his segment with subtitles

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526293852704890882

He's the same guy who gave the reality segment a week ago.  Again, it's interesting that he gets to do this. 

[Virginiá]

Here's his segment with subtitles

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526293852704890882
He's the same guy who gave the reality segment a week ago.  Again, it's interesting that he gets to do this. 

Not without constantly being prodded by one of the hosts lol

Most of these people only really have one thing to say and anything else is met with resistance.

[BG-NY]

Regretably, Mariupol has fallen.

[AndyHogan14]

Regretably, Mariupol has fallen.

Indeed. But in the end, how much of Mariupol is really left to fall? The Russians razed the city to the ground in order to take it.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/HBlargh/status/1526287121295736832?s=20&t=_N9JXKXyxDFoB0...

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1526110267268075521?s=20&t=klll_ISxGu9...

The colors of Ukraine look good in Crimea.

[DINGO Joe]

Here's his segment with subtitles

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526293852704890882
He's the same guy who gave the reality segment a week ago.  Again, it's interesting that he gets to do this. 

Not without constantly being prodded by one of the hosts lol

Most of these people only really have one thing to say and anything else is met with resistance.

Well, Khodaryonok knows his sh*t (plus he's right) so it's easy for him to stay on point when "debating" these caricatures.

BTW, here's a link to an article he wrote 3 weeks before the invasion where he predicted spot on how things would go

Predictions of bloodthirsty political scientists--About enthusiastic hawks and hasty cuckoos

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/HBlargh/status/1526287121295736832?s=20&t=_N9JXKXyxDFoB0...

Well, this has been the most visual war in history, so you get to see that it's hard to make decisions when somebody is trying to blow you up (in this case the driver of the second BMP probably didn't realize the first hit a mine and was probably trying to get out of a zone of fire).  I've seen videos of Russian heat signatures run around in circles while a drone blows up the tank he was fortunately not occupying at the time.  I've seen an octocopter drop a grenade thru the sunroof of some hapless (probably mobilized) troops trying to flee.   Tanks who hit a mine and then backup and hit another.   And of course the endless parade of turret tosses where whatever crew inside is just turned to ash. 

It frequently does have a "blooper" reel feel to it and I've chuckled a time or two and made my own memes and jokes, but damn, how anybody not defending their country still gets inside one of these things at this point,,,,,,,

[CumbrianLefty]

Regretably, Mariupol has fallen.

Indeed. But in the end, how much of Mariupol is really left to fall? The Russians razed the city to the ground in order to take it.

And it still took about two months longer than they planned, and who knows how many Russian lives.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If Ukraine were to somehow retake Crimea, the settlers post-2014 should be deported and any property that was confiscated from Ukrainians/Tatars that fled should be returned. I also think a loyalty oath should be required in the pre-February 24 territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea before voting/citizen rights are restored.

This sounds quite plausible, but whether it's right is a trickier matter, as with all settler populations that have been in place for more than 5 minutes. Some people have been there for eight years - have they married Ukrainians? What about their children? Do local communities depend on them to provide certain goods or services ? Would their lives be in significant danger if they returned to Russia - if so, should they be considered refugees?

What about Russians who happened to be immigrants in Ukraine prior to 2014?

Mass deportations are likely. I hope they take account of individual situations to avoid the many personal tragedies that will result if due care is not taken. On some level, there is understandable concern about rewarding a perverse incentive to create colonial, demographic change, but it has to be balanced against the weight of uprooting lives which deserve dignity.

I also think a loyalty oath should be required in the pre-February 24 territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea before voting/citizen rights are restored.

You underestimate how many people wouldn't make an oath in any given country. Failure to swear an oath would not indicate loyalty to the Russian Federation or any of the "Republics", and nor should supporters of these bodies be disenfranchised.

One of the reasons the Crimean annexation was tolerated by the international community was because there was widespread sentiment that Crimea might have fancied it - which, in turn, existed because Ukraine had not allowed a referendum in Crimea. Ukraine must engage with its dissident population (which already exists) democratically to preserve the long-term stability of the state.

[Woody]

There is still the question if Russia will even let some of the surrendered Azov fighters leave/be exchanged. Already calls from some in the Russian side for detaining them indefinitely, or outright execution:

However, Russia's TASS news agency quoted the speaker of the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, as calling the Ukrainian fighters "Nazi criminals" that should not be exchanged.

Another lawmaker, Leonid Slutsky, said that although Russia had a moratorium on the death penalty, it should "think carefully" about capital punishment for the Azov fighters.

Source: https://www.rferl.org/a/azovstal-evacuate-mariupol-ukraine/31854197.html

[Sir Mohamed]

There is still the question if Russia will even let some of the surrendered Azov fighters leave/be exchanged. Already calls from some in the Russian side for detaining them indefinitely, or outright execution:

However, Russia's TASS news agency quoted the speaker of the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, as calling the Ukrainian fighters "Nazi criminals" that should not be exchanged.

Another lawmaker, Leonid Slutsky, said that although Russia had a moratorium on the death penalty, it should "think carefully" about capital punishment for the Azov fighters.

Source: https://www.rferl.org/a/azovstal-evacuate-mariupol-ukraine/31854197.html

You would expect them to have a desire for prisoner exchanges? At least that's what has been done numerous times since the war begun.

[Woody]

There is still the question if Russia will even let some of the surrendered Azov fighters leave/be exchanged. Already calls from some in the Russian side for detaining them indefinitely, or outright execution:

However, Russia's TASS news agency quoted the speaker of the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, as calling the Ukrainian fighters "Nazi criminals" that should not be exchanged.

Another lawmaker, Leonid Slutsky, said that although Russia had a moratorium on the death penalty, it should "think carefully" about capital punishment for the Azov fighters.

Source: https://www.rferl.org/a/azovstal-evacuate-mariupol-ukraine/31854197.html

You would expect them to have a desire for prisoner exchanges? At least that's what has been done numerous times since the war begun.

I am leaning towards it. But this is Russia we are talking about.

[AndyHogan14]

snip

This sounds quite plausible, but whether it's right is a trickier matter, as with all settler populations that have been in place for more than 5 minutes. Some people have been there for eight years - have they married Ukrainians? What about their children? Do local communities depend on them to provide certain goods or services ? Would their lives be in significant danger if they returned to Russia - if so, should they be considered refugees?

What about Russians who happened to be immigrants in Ukraine prior to 2014?

Mass deportations are likely. I hope they take account of individual situations to avoid the many personal tragedies that will result if due care is not taken. On some level, there is understandable concern about rewarding a perverse incentive to create colonial, demographic change, but it has to be balanced against the weight of uprooting lives which deserve dignity.

snip

You underestimate how many people wouldn't make an oath in any given country. Failure to swear an oath would not indicate loyalty to the Russian Federation or any of the "Republics", and nor should supporters of these bodies be disenfranchised.

One of the reasons the Crimean annexation was tolerated by the international community was because there was widespread sentiment that Crimea might have fancied it - which, in turn, existed because Ukraine had not allowed a referendum in Crimea. Ukraine must engage with its dissident population (which already exists) democratically to preserve the long-term stability of the state.

For those that have married into a family that rightfully has Ukrainian citizenship, then Ukrainian immigration law should kick in. I am sure there is some sort of process in their immigration system for when a citizen marries a non-citizen. The same goes for children. For most of the settler colonial population, I have no sympathy towards them and, quite frankly, karma is a bitch. They knew before moving to Crimea that they were moving into an area that was legally part of another state (or, at least, that most of the world recognized the region as part of another state).

As far as the loyalty oath is concerned, I think that it absolutely must happen. You cannot just pretend that the last eight years did not happen. Those that are legally residing in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea (pre-2014 residents) should have their rights respected if they refuse to swear loyalty though and should be given permanent residency if they do not. With that said, those that served in Russian administration of Crimea or the LPR/DPR governments (high-level administrators, not low-level civil servants) should be stripped of any chance of Ukrainian citizenship and should only be eligible for permanent residency once they have served their time in prison.

[Mopsus]

There is still the question if Russia will even let some of the surrendered Azov fighters leave/be exchanged. Already calls from some in the Russian side for detaining them indefinitely, or outright execution:

However, Russia's TASS news agency quoted the speaker of the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, as calling the Ukrainian fighters "Nazi criminals" that should not be exchanged.

Another lawmaker, Leonid Slutsky, said that although Russia had a moratorium on the death penalty, it should "think carefully" about capital punishment for the Azov fighters.

Source: https://www.rferl.org/a/azovstal-evacuate-mariupol-ukraine/31854197.html

You would expect them to have a desire for prisoner exchanges? At least that's what has been done numerous times since the war begun.

Not that it’ll necessarily come to this, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Russians were more than happy to let every POW in Ukrainian hands remain there indefinitely as long as they get their revenge on the “Azov Nazis” who absolutely embarrassed them for 82 days.

[Badger]

There is still the question if Russia will even let some of the surrendered Azov fighters leave/be exchanged. Already calls from some in the Russian side for detaining them indefinitely, or outright execution:

However, Russia's TASS news agency quoted the speaker of the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, as calling the Ukrainian fighters "Nazi criminals" that should not be exchanged.

Another lawmaker, Leonid Slutsky, said that although Russia had a moratorium on the death penalty, it should "think carefully" about capital punishment for the Azov fighters.

Source: https://www.rferl.org/a/azovstal-evacuate-mariupol-ukraine/31854197.html

You would expect them to have a desire for prisoner exchanges? At least that's what has been done numerous times since the war begun.

Not that it’ll necessarily come to this, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Russians were more than happy to let every POW in Ukrainian hands remain there indefinitely as long as they get their revenge on the “Azov Nazis” who absolutely embarrassed them for 82 days.

Ugh. Depressingly accurate assessment. This is particularly true considering how utterly callous the Russian government has been about its troops, both in terms of sending them on basically poorly trained human wave assaults and trying to recover their bodies once they fallen in combat. Following a glorious Russian tradition going back literally half a millennia.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The Grauniad and a couple other sources are saying there are still people in Azovstal for whom extraction efforts are ongoing. This is probably tinhattery, but I wouldn't be shocked if Zelensky just let Russia have Azov in particular and is still trying to get everyone else to Ukraine-held territory.

[Woody]

Welp, didn't take long. Russian ambassador now claims that the evacuation of the plant was an "unconditional surrender" (No guarantees to the surrendering party):

And Russian deputy ambassador to the United Nations Dmitry Polyansky said there had been no deal, tweeting: "I didn’t know English has so many ways to express a single message: the #Azovnazis have unconditionally surrendered."

Lawmaker Leonid Slutsky, one of Russia's negotiators in talks with Ukraine, called the evacuated combatants "animals in human form" and said they should receive the death penalty. read more

"They do not deserve to live after the monstrous crimes against humanity that they have committed and that are committed continuously against our prisoners," he said

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-backed-separatists-say-256-ukrainian-fighters-surrendered-azovstal-2022-05-17/

Edit: The State Duma is now considering banning the exchange of "Nazi criminals", and the Supreme Court of RU on 26 May will consider recognizing Azov as a terrorist organization.

Deputies of the State Duma supported the proposal of the chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defence, Andrey Kartapolov, to consider on Wednesday a draft resolution on "preventing the exchange of Nazi criminals

...and Russia is doing everything possible to bring them to justice.

He asked the Duma Committee on Defence to prepare a resolution that would reflect the proposal on the impossibility of exchanging prisoners from the Azov Regiment.

Source: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/17/7346780/

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Grauniad and a couple other sources are saying there are still people in Azovstal for whom extraction efforts are ongoing. This is probably tinhattery, but I wouldn't be shocked if Zelensky just let Russia have Azov in particular and is still trying to get everyone else to Ukraine-held territory.

I suspect the defenders are too popular for this policy to be risked, sensible as it would be.