Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1518851658700234753

The German "Gepard" tanks intended for export to Ukraine face the same problem as the "Marder": Their ammunition is produced in Switzerland and Switzerland refuses to play ball.

https://twitter.com/juliacreinhart/status/1519030514853814279


This launched a search for an alternate source of ammunation, including Brazil which still uses the "Gepard" in their own army.

https://twitter.com/VStancik/status/1519006306505564160

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1518916591299309569?t=I0SOJQmY-onYzMEHL7UWz...
The second best army in the world hasn't been able to defeat the gay neo-Nazi Satanists in Maruipol.

That’s because they’re producing deadly Western vaccines in the biolabs.

[It’s so Joever]

What if this gay accusation and the cutting of oil to Poland is actually a mega big brain 4-D chess move to get the Polish right wing to support Russia?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Speaking of which...


https://twitter.com/RFERL/status/1519035590238294016

[2952-0-0]

Understand that in Russian Nationalist discourse, ‘Nazi’ means ‘not Russian, Western influenced’

So gay Nazis, Jewish Nazis, etc. makes perfect sense to them. A Nazi is a westerner whose out to get Russia in their minds,

How Putin views western leaders:

[It’s so Joever]

Maybe the Russians have planned an invasion from Transnistria to push towards Odessa.

[Lief 🗽]

What if this gay accusation and the cutting of oil to Poland is actually a mega big brain 4-D chess move to get the Polish right wing to support Russia?

Nah Poland is one of the more based countries in the world, because both its right and left hate Russia.

[AndyHogan14]

Maybe the Russians have planned an invasion from Transnistria to push towards Odessa.

How many troops do the Russians have in Transnistria? I cannot imagine that they have enough of a force to realistically take Odesa AND, if they empty Transnistria, that invites Moldova to retake the region.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Maybe the Russians have planned an invasion from Transnistria to push towards Odessa.

How many troops do the Russians have in Transnistria? I cannot imagine that they have enough of a force to realistically take Odesa AND, if they empty Transnistria, that invites Moldova to retake the region.

Wikipedia says 1,500 troops, although that number may a bit outdated.

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operational_Group_of_Russian_Forces)

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Maybe the Russians have planned an invasion from Transnistria to push towards Odessa.

Do they have more than a nominal troop deployment in Transnistria?
And even if they do, how are they supposed to equip and support an invasion force, what with all that Ukraine in the way?
Not that something being monumentally stupid will stop the Russian military from doing it, but I wouldn’t worry much.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1519083153046097921

[Middle-aged Europe]

With regards to Russia's gas embargo on Poland and Bulgaria... aside from the fact that Poland's gas ressources are pretty full at the moment, Bulgaria is a country which uses only an almost negligable amount of Russia gas. So it seems like Putin deliberately targeted the countries who could "handle" such an embargo the best, which makes it an almost symbolic move or a form a "very serious" threat, depending how want to look at it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

With regards to Russia's gas embargo on Poland and Bulgaria... aside from the fact that Poland's gas ressources are pretty full at the moment, Bulgaria is a country which uses only an almost negligable amount of Russia gas. So it seems like Putin deliberately targeted the countries who could "handle" such an embargo the best, which makes it an almost symbolic move or a form a "very serious" threat, depending how want to look at it.

Is it worth the revenue lost? Like, even if Poland and Bulgaria are a small percentage of Russian gas exports, with all the other sanctions in place, Russia can't exactly afford to reduce its cash flows.

[AndyHogan14]

Maybe the Russians have planned an invasion from Transnistria to push towards Odessa.

How many troops do the Russians have in Transnistria? I cannot imagine that they have enough of a force to realistically take Odesa AND, if they empty Transnistria, that invites Moldova to retake the region.

Wikipedia says 1,500 troops, although that number may a bit outdated.

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operational_Group_of_Russian_Forces)

If it is 1,500 Russians and let's say that Transnistria has 5,500 active troops (also from Wikipedia), I would assume that the territorial defense in the Odesa Oblast could take care of 7,000 troops (with no real support) in short order. Then, once they are routed, Moldova could just waltz in and retake the east bank of the Dniester.

[GALeftist]

Yeah, I don't think Transnistria is likely to be a boon to the Russian military for a number of reasons. Not sure what their goal is here.

[Logical]

Read this thread if you want to know the actual state of the OGRF.
https://twitter.com/Nikopol5/status/1518693294389313536

[NOVA Green]

Hate to be a booster for the US Armaments Industry and the War Machine, but looks like Stinger Mfg manufacturing lines are not only completely shut down, but there are such limited supplies of even the "Critical Inventory" and "Critical Spares" of materials in inventory from Raytheon to even be able to manufacture more than a handful of additional Stingers, which haven't been purchased by the DoD in the past (18) years.

Had an Uncle who used to work for the Defense Sector in San Diego, and then later on moved back to New England in the Southern New England States, who although was anti-militarist was a major consultant on military technologies from an engineering perspective.

Unfortunately he died way too young after his retirement and plus was a bit older than my Aunt and was not able to attend his celebration of life, despite the fact it got delayed for 9 months bcs of COVID.

Defense giant Raytheon Technologies is struggling to reinvigorate an important missile supply chain that was wound down after the Cold War, complicating U.S. efforts to support the Ukrainian military in the face of persistent Russian attack.

The company is finding it hard to scale up production of Stinger antiaircraft missiles because the U.S. military ― whose choice of weapons can single-handedly shape global markets for military hardware ― stopped purchasing new Stingers almost two decades ago, chief executive Greg Hayes said in a call with investors Tuesday

“We have a very limited stock of material for Stinger production,” Hayes said. “We’re actively trying to resource some of the material, but unfortunately the [U.S. Department of Defense] has not bought a Stinger in about 18 years, and some of the components are no longer commercially available.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/26/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-5SHGR6S3DVD6RL4NUFNGRJZ4CM

[AndyHogan14]

Another "accidental" fire? The Muscovites should know not to smoke near ammunition/oil/etc.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1519148785972264963?s=20&t=1GWV83...

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Seems like Russia is trying out its blackmailing powers on one of the "weaker" NATO/EU members. When are those dumb assholes gonna learn that choosing escalation simply means that things are gonna escalate (for them too).


https://mobile.twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1519014631930580992

Well, seems like Bulgaria is on the menu too...


https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1519035732211417090


Kind of obvious that they're apparently trying not to mess with Germany, Italy, or France (bigger receivers of Russian gas than either Poland or Bulgaria) at this point, even though their present course of escalation might just as well make a general gas embargo more likely.

Also a bit dumb to lash out at Bulgaria of all places, considering it's still one of the most pro-Russian countries in the EU after Hungary.

Bulgaria in the Warsaw Pact era was always the most Soviet friendly regime. Bulgaria and Russians are both Slavs and Bulgaria even wanted to join the USSR back in the 1970s. There was no big protests or rebellions against the Bulgarian communist government.

[Blue3]

If Russia moves against Moldova now, it will be more of a change in strategy for the Ukraine war than greed for Moldova itself. It will mean that Putin will focus more on holding eastern and coastal Ukraine, choking it off. And that means Russia will focus more on just holding those areas and then just do sporadic bombing and incursions into Kyiv and the rest of Ukraine for years to maybe over a decade… until western arms shipments to Ukraine finally dry up, western sanctions against Russia finally end, and then a decade-battered Ukraine with no access to the sea is finally completely annexed by a more war-hardened Russian military. This could very well go until 2035. Moldova probably means a more dangerous and competent long-term strategy. It’s a relatively poor, small, landlocked country by itself.

[DINGO Joe]

Another "accidental" fire? The Muscovites should know not to smoke near ammunition/oil/etc.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1519148785972264963?s=20&t=1GWV83...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1519146076011433986

This one seems highly likely Ukrainian.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

If Russia moves against Moldova now, it will be more of a change in strategy for the Ukraine war than greed for Moldova itself. It will mean that Putin will focus more on holding eastern and coastal Ukraine, choking it off. And that means Russia will focus more on just holding those areas and then just do sporadic bombing and incursions into Kyiv and the rest of Ukraine for years to maybe over a decade… until western arms shipments to Ukraine finally dry up, western sanctions against Russia finally end, and then a decade-battered Ukraine with no access to the sea is finally completely annexed by a more war-hardened Russian military. This could very well go until 2035. Moldova probably means a more dangerous and competent long-term strategy. It’s a relatively poor, small, landlocked country by itself.

Again, how are they getting to Moldova? It really doesn’t look like they are making any progress West/north of Kherson and they simply don’t have the resources to take Odessa.
Transnistria has a token Russian force and a couple thousand local fighters. And it’s land locked and I hardly think either Moldova or Ukraine is just going to let the Russian move supplies there.

[Hindsight was 2020]

If Russia moves against Moldova now, it will be more of a change in strategy for the Ukraine war than greed for Moldova itself. It will mean that Putin will focus more on holding eastern and coastal Ukraine, choking it off. And that means Russia will focus more on just holding those areas and then just do sporadic bombing and incursions into Kyiv and the rest of Ukraine for years to maybe over a decade… until western arms shipments to Ukraine finally dry up, western sanctions against Russia finally end, and then a decade-battered Ukraine with no access to the sea is finally completely annexed by a more war-hardened Russian military. This could very well go until 2035. Moldova probably means a more dangerous and competent long-term strategy. It’s a relatively poor, small, landlocked country by itself.

Again, how are they getting to Moldova? It really doesn’t look like they are making any progress West/north of Kherson and they simply don’t have the resources to take Odessa.
Transnistria has a token Russian force and a couple thousand local fighters. And it’s land locked and I hardly think either Moldova or Ukraine is just going to let the Russian move supplies there.

Also I know that Moldova is a small nation and military but it still is a mountains area with 60k in reserves so if Russia goes to war with them too that it will be some quick cakewalk. And that’s not mentioning the elephant in the room that Romania might directly intervene militarily as well

[Good Habit]

Also I know that Moldova is a small nation and military but it still is a mountains area

?Mountains? in Moldova - did you ever look at a map?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also I know that Moldova is a small nation and military but it still is a mountains area

?Mountains? in Moldova - did you ever look at a map?

Moldova has as many mountains of earth as it does mountains of wealth.