Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Badger]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-says-gas-payments-may-be-possible-under-russian-roubles-proposal-without-2022-04-22/

"EU sees way to pay for Russian gas without breaching sanctions"

It seems EU ok's Russia compromise of EU companies paying USD or EUR for Russian gas and Gazprombank immediately converting it to RUB.  This entire affair is a battle of technicalities.  In the end, the fact remains that Russia will continue to export gas and get paid for it while giving Putin some face-saving "victory".  In the meantime RUb surges to 76 which is early Jan 2022 levels.

Europe accepting to pay for Russian gas in roubles? Boris Johnson saying Russia could win the war? German intellectuals writing open letters suggesting Ukraine should surrender? But I thought Europe was united for Ukraine? lol

And people who called out the European hypocrisy (from both sides, from the ones asking them to do more to help and the people against the sanctions on Russia) were criticized for pointing the elephant on the room.

The economy vs national security debate is the key to understand the start of this new global order. Easy to push for intense structural de-globalization in rhetoric only but not really do it when you know you’re among the places which most rely on the economic benefits of said globalization and would be among the more affected places if a reversal trend were to start.

That explains the positions of places like Germany who want the war to end for a quick return for business as usual logic, one friendly to their wallets. That’s not going to happen and they will eventually have to be honest about what they care more about: Globalization or Ukraine.

Do you have anything to contribute to this thread beyond preening concern-trolling about muh European hypocrisy and argumentum ad populum fallacies to justify your country's disgusting "neutral" stance toward Russia's genocide? This is getting pathetic.

Have you anything to contribute to this thread beyond hectoring people for not having an opinion in line with your own?

Brazil, and Brazilians, have sovereignty, and clearly prize that. And there are concerns that are at play from a Brazilian POV, that should not be completely shoffed at.

And it's also true that what's being done re: sanctions are in fact deglobalizing the world. They make sense as a short-term tool to weaken Russia's hand, but they come at a terrible strategic cost in the long term if they continue indefinitely. If Russia gets used to sanctions (to some extent, they already are), then our bargaining chips will only diminish and our leverage over them will only weaken.

SWIFT, like many other things, can be regarded as an international institution on which we all rely; cutting Russia from it is not without downsides, as it only encourages the creation of autarkic spheres that rely on themselves, not on international institutions that we, in fact, have the strongest influence over. We could be harming the very international world order we are trying to save. It might be an impossible choice to avoid, but it's still a choice we are making.

And history tells us that the integration of economies, as we see in the modern age, does tend to result in higher standards of living on average. These higher standards of living, in fact, are important if we want a Europe that can afford to flex its muscles. More tax dollars from commerce means more money that can be spent on defense, in fact, implicitly, more money that can be spent defending against Russia should worse come to worse.

This war is about more than just Ukraine, and his conclusion is far from wrong in the gist of it. The de-globalization that is being promoted, indirectly, is not going to just harm Russia, it will hurt Europe too. Severing Russia from Europe in the commercial sphere is good for America, but it's probably not good for Europe. Fortunately, I doubt European leaders will let it go that far.

Many people still don’t realize times have changed and get shocked when they learn people in the global south are rational human beings with independent self-interests. Too much time believing they’re the only center of the world, so the existence and of an independent “other” angers because it sounds threatening.

The de-globalization trend clearly didn’t start because of Russia, but because of Chinese growth that wasn’t expected by US. They’ve been increasingly throwing in the trash the post-cold war liberal ideological stance in favor of a more nationalistic approach. The Russian war has only been good excuse to accelerate this process on their part.

I agree with the poster who responded when they said they likely expect a “controlled globalization” where they’re in the center but that’s not possible anymore in these days, unless they directly undermine the growth of countries they see as a threat/competition. South-South ties have expanded a lot thanks to the globalization of past decades and that’s not something that can be simply “reversed” as the US expects.

Even if this war has positive effect of pushing Europe closer to them in certain levels like they want, Europe is the continent most dependable of the goods of globalization and that’s why they’re are more resistant to accept this reversal. Europe would be more prejudiced than US and also more closed countries which have embraced less globalization over the years. People buying the warhawk trash propaganda attack Germany so easily but there’s a reason for their response to be more cautious.

For global south specifically, even if some places are more adaptable to de-globalization effects (although everyone would suffer consequences), the important thing right now is to not compromise against globalization and multilateralism. That is the best way of showing globalization cannot be reversed or controlled by few countries according to whatever their self-interest of the moment is.

Explain to me how the invasion and annexation of a neutral country by an imperialist European power is in the rational self interest of the global south?

Because basically your argument amounts to ‘America is bad, therefore  Ukraine’

You forgot to ask how supporting a genocide by the invading country is somehow part of the quote Global South quote. But otherwise a great point

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't think Ukraine is behind the fires in Russia. I think it's some collection of oligarchs who are trying to make Putin crack.  Just pure conjecture.

If the end result of all this is to cause some sort of civil war in Russia.....well.

[Woody]

Russians trying to cut rail lines & supply lines from the west to Slovyansk.

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1518379638489296903?cxt=HHwWjsC5pZG...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russians trying to cut rail lines & supply lines from the west to Slovyansk.

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1518379638489296903?cxt=HHwWjsC5pZG...

The war's overall trajectory has not been good for Russia. They better hope for a knockout win in this (provided they are indeed doing this).
Ukraine's getting the weapons, and in time, conscription will give them the numbers. It's likely that the longer this war goes on, the harder it will be for Russia to be able to do offensives on Ukrainian soil altogether.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/russian-forces-hit-logistics-terminal-of-foreign-weapons-near-odessa-122042400074_1.html

"Russian forces hit logistics terminal of foreign weapons near Odessa"

Russia claims to have destroyed a logistics terminal in Odessa which had a bunch of foreign weapons in transit.  If true it does show a good amount of foreign weapons into Ukraine are seabound versus overland.

Glad to see Phil is so happy about this that he recommended your post.

It's amazing that this, of all possible ways you could read it, is how you read it.
Especially when I proceed to endorse the idea of considering convoys for ships carrying weapons for Ukraine and affirm the idea that sending Ukraine weapons is good for American national interests.
I needed a laugh. Low-hanging fruit, but still...
(I very much appreciate the role jaichind has had in giving us info in this thread. I make no apologies for recognizing that via the recommend button. Btw I believe in the perpetuation of America's top global status and a reasonably liberal internationalist world order using realist means and an ultra-analytical framework.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Following a New York Times interview in which he refused to either criticize Putin or his own role with regards to Russia, SPD co-chair Saskia Esken has called upon former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder to leave the party.

https://mobile.twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1518497932290723840

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1518523955920973826

[Middle-aged Europe]

Okay, whatever..


https://twitter.com/DispatchSun/status/1518582201507528704

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Following a New York Times interview in which he refused to either criticize Putin or his own role with regards to Russia, SPD co-chair Saskia Esken has called upon former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder to leave the party.

The most revealing thing about that interview was that he gave it at all - most people in his position would not be talking to the press at present. Mind you, most would have resigned from all their tainted board posts and yet...

It's pretty clear that if German law over this followed the British set of laws governing clubs and societies (which essentially, and in the best Victorian tradition, allow for self-governing free-for-alls so long as things like anti-discrimination legislation are followed) he'd certainly have been kicked out already.

[NOVA Green]

German fighting vehicles unable to be gifted to Ukraine, because Switzerland is not willing to reexport ammunition.

Germany has been unable to send Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine because Switzerland will not allow the reexport of ammunition used in the armored personnel carriers.

The Marder infantry fighting vehicle is made in Germany but uses Swiss ammunition.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/25/russia-ukraine-war-news-blinken-austin-live-updates/#link-VSNONBM2SZBFRLKBIVTHJOW6XI

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The most revealing thing about that interview was that he gave it at all - most people in his position would not be talking to the press at present. Mind you, most would have resigned from all their tainted board posts and yet...

And we should note that this point is not a hypothetical one: he is far from being the only senior European politician to have acquired questionable board memberships with the Russian petro-chemical combines after retirement. But the others have hastily dropped theirs and are keeping very quiet right now. I don't think the difference here is a moral one - these are hardly good or moral people - but more of a comment on quite how monstrously vain and arrogant Schröder is.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The most revealing thing about that interview was that he gave it at all - most people in his position would not be talking to the press at present. Mind you, most would have resigned from all their tainted board posts and yet...

And we should note that this point is not a hypothetical one: he is far from being the only senior European politician to have acquired questionable board memberships with the Russian petro-chemical combines after retirement. But the others have hastily dropped theirs and are keeping very quiet right now. I don't think the difference here is a moral one - these are hardly good or moral people - but more of a comment on quite how monstrously vain and arrogant Schröder is.

Quite true. I recall his legendary TV appearance on election night in 2005 when he repeatedly and stubbornly insisted - although under the likely influence of alcohol - that he won the election and that his SPD would refuse to even talk with the CDU about forming a governing coalition with Merkel at the top. A day later this position was quickly shelved by the SPD and Schröder grudgingly admitted that his appearance hadn't been "optimal". Had almost something Trumpian if you think about it. Why is it that "Trumpian" personalities happen to like Vladimir Putin so often?

[Sir Mohamed]

Following a New York Times interview in which he refused to either criticize Putin or his own role with regards to Russia, SPD co-chair Saskia Esken has called upon former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder to leave the party.

https://mobile.twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1518497932290723840

How would Germany behave if this dude was still in power? Or would he be removed/forced to resign?

[Middle-aged Europe]

That's probably the first mainstream media opinion piece I saw, albeit by a rather conservative journalist, that advocates for Germany to obtain nuclear weapons of its own in the wake of the Ukrainian invasion:

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/aufruestung-wie-ich-die-bombe-lieben-lernte-kolumne-a-260f8dca-4eb6-4fd2-ab16-1325b1ed8ba1

It's unlikely to become a majority opinion anytime soon, but still, keep in mind that only three months ago he probably would have been laughed out of the magazine's editorial office right away for even floating that.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Following a New York Times interview in which he refused to either criticize Putin or his own role with regards to Russia, SPD co-chair Saskia Esken has called upon former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder to leave the party.

https://mobile.twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1518497932290723840

How would Germany behave if this dude was still in power? Or would he be removed/forced to resign?

Haha, good question... if he had insisted on continuing on his course, I'd say the coalition would have already broken apart or he would have been forced to resign by his party in order to save the governing coalition.

Alternatively, he probably would have tried to adjust his position a bit in order to keep his job, but only up to the point it was really necessary for him. Keep in mind that Schröder is also quite the opportunist and political survivor.

That would have been amounted to walking a rather fine line though, and I'm not entirely sure whether this strategy would have been ultimately successful for him in the current climate.

[Badger]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/russian-forces-hit-logistics-terminal-of-foreign-weapons-near-odessa-122042400074_1.html

"Russian forces hit logistics terminal of foreign weapons near Odessa"

Russia claims to have destroyed a logistics terminal in Odessa which had a bunch of foreign weapons in transit.  If true it does show a good amount of foreign weapons into Ukraine are seabound versus overland.

Glad to see Phil is so happy about this that he recommended your post.

It's amazing that this, of all possible ways you could read it, is how you read it.
Especially when I proceed to endorse the idea of considering convoys for ships carrying weapons for Ukraine and affirm the idea that sending Ukraine weapons is good for American national interests.
I needed a laugh. Low-hanging fruit, but still...
(I very much appreciate the role jaichind has had in giving us info in this thread. I make no apologies for recognizing that via the recommend button. Btw I believe in the perpetuation of America's top global status and a reasonably liberal internationalist world order using realist means and an ultra-analytical framework.)

Those certainly are a lot of words which completely fail to explain the equivalent of a like about Ukraine potentially having lost a lot of desperately needed foreign military aid.

And I agree that jaichind's perspective is helpful in understanding other moral eunuchs around the world who will coldly gauge the ramifications of imperialistic genocide in the hope of increasing their portfolio's value by half a percent.

[Badger]

German fighting vehicles unable to be gifted to Ukraine, because Switzerland is not willing to reexport ammunition.

Germany has been unable to send Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine because Switzerland will not allow the reexport of ammunition used in the armored personnel carriers.

The Marder infantry fighting vehicle is made in Germany but uses Swiss ammunition.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/25/russia-ukraine-war-news-blinken-austin-live-updates/#link-VSNONBM2SZBFRLKBIVTHJOW6XI

God dammit Switzerland, what the frick is your problem?? You sell armaments to Saudi Arabia and damn near anyone else in the world wanting them, but you won't help out the Ukraine now?!?

[Yeahsayyeah]

Swiss Germans are the German right wing on steroids. What do you expect?

[Astatine]

Swiss Germans are the German right wing on steroids. What do you expect?

Gaddafi was a wise man.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1518625162362507264
Grain of salt but big if true as this means the Izium offensive is now exposed on its side

[Stranger in a strange land]

The most revealing thing about that interview was that he gave it at all - most people in his position would not be talking to the press at present. Mind you, most would have resigned from all their tainted board posts and yet...

And we should note that this point is not a hypothetical one: he is far from being the only senior European politician to have acquired questionable board memberships with the Russian petro-chemical combines after retirement. But the others have hastily dropped theirs and are keeping very quiet right now. I don't think the difference here is a moral one - these are hardly good or moral people - but more of a comment on quite how monstrously vain and arrogant Schröder is.

Quite true. I recall his legendary TV appearance on election night in 2005 when he repeatedly and stubbornly insisted - although under the likely influence of alcohol - that he won the election and that his SPD would refuse to even talk with the CDU about forming a governing coalition with Merkel at the top. A day later this position was quickly shelved by the SPD and Schröder grudgingly admitted that his appearance hadn't been "optimal". Had almost something Trumpian if you think about it. Why is it that "Trumpian" personalities happen to like Vladimir Putin so often?

Putin is very, very good at manipulating narcissists, and something (I haven't quite been able to pinpoint what) causes them to EAT UP the KGB tough guy persona.

[President Johnson]

Following a New York Times interview in which he refused to either criticize Putin or his own role with regards to Russia, SPD co-chair Saskia Esken has called upon former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder to leave the party.

https://mobile.twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1518497932290723840

Schröder needs to be thrown out of the party right now, or just leave it (and Consuela Schwesig needs to resign). I'm kinda embarrassed to be in the same party as him now, and I'm evening saying this as someone approving his chancellorship. Obviously the guy has totally lost any moral compass, and not just since yesterday. Doesn't he have enough of a pension from taxpayer money and other sources of revenue, or why does he continue to serve in Russian corporate boards to cash in more money?

Seems like he just doesn't care the slightest bit about his public image. Just like the German motto: Ist der Ruf erst ruiniert, lebt's sich ganz ungeniert!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/russian-forces-hit-logistics-terminal-of-foreign-weapons-near-odessa-122042400074_1.html

"Russian forces hit logistics terminal of foreign weapons near Odessa"

Russia claims to have destroyed a logistics terminal in Odessa which had a bunch of foreign weapons in transit.  If true it does show a good amount of foreign weapons into Ukraine are seabound versus overland.

Glad to see Phil is so happy about this that he recommended your post.

It's amazing that this, of all possible ways you could read it, is how you read it.
Especially when I proceed to endorse the idea of considering convoys for ships carrying weapons for Ukraine and affirm the idea that sending Ukraine weapons is good for American national interests.
I needed a laugh. Low-hanging fruit, but still...
(I very much appreciate the role jaichind has had in giving us info in this thread. I make no apologies for recognizing that via the recommend button. Btw I believe in the perpetuation of America's top global status and a reasonably liberal internationalist world order using realist means and an ultra-analytical framework.)

Those certainly are a lot of words which completely fail to explain the equivalent of a like about Ukraine potentially having lost a lot of desperately needed foreign military aid.

And I agree that jaichind's perspective is helpful in understanding other moral eunuchs around the world who will coldly gauge the ramifications of imperialistic genocide in the hope of increasing their portfolio's value by half a percent.

What if I told you I had nothing invested in the stock market?
I'm quasi-analyst, not an investor.
Also, I could part the Red Sea to prove I favor Ukraine getting weapons, and you still wouldn't believe it.
It'd be very funny if it wasn't pathetic. But whatever.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Rheinmetall has formally asked the German government for permission to export 88 Leopard 1 main battle tanks to Ukraine.

https://mobile.twitter.com/m_trinkwalder/status/1518632240619692032

Potential down sides:

- Only 22 of the tanks could be delivered within the next six to eight weeks, the rest would follow until the end of 2023.
- There's (almost) no ammunition included in the Rheinmetall offer. It's an older type of ammunition that is no longer used by NATO and fresh batches would need to be produced from scratch first.

[Storr]

I don't think fighter planes are supposed to do that.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1518562372071436289?s=20&t=-REs53z1JcJ...