Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/russian-forces-hit-logistics-terminal-of-foreign-weapons-near-odessa-122042400074_1.html

"Russian forces hit logistics terminal of foreign weapons near Odessa"

Russia claims to have destroyed a logistics terminal in Odessa which had a bunch of foreign weapons in transit.  If true it does show a good amount of foreign weapons into Ukraine are seabound versus overland.

Big L for Ukraine if its capability to fight is impacted by Russian actions like this (assuming this is true, of course).

That could be the next escalation: shipping convoys.

Interesting idea. Not necessarily a bad one either.
It's, after all, in the American national interest if weapons are obtained by Ukraine.

The Russian Navy has effectively blockaded shipping in and out of Ukraine, so I doubt much war material is coming in via the Black Sea. The Ukrainians aren't able to do much about it since in 2014 they lost 3/4 of their Navy when the main Ukrainian naval base in Sevastopol was taken over. Dozens of officers, several ship captains, and even two commanders of the Ukrainian Navy Sergei Yeliseyev (a Russian born in Moscow) and Denis Berezovsky (who was commander for one day) defected to Russia.

Yeah, I don't know what they're all talking about.  The same ships have been parked at the Port of Odessa since the beginning of the war.  Everything is rail and road at this point.

The blockade is a distant maritime one. It (probably?) doesn’t apply to all of Ukraine’s maritime border with Romania, and there are places (official ports or otherwise) where ships can dock in Ukraine. A Spanish ship with aid for Ukraine was recently dispatched - perhaps it docked in another country, but there should remain a route to Ukraine.

There have actually been some limited Ukrainian naval movements observed via OSINT since the war began, albeit within the limits of Russia’s blockade. That could change with the deployment of anti-ship missiles (a number of Ukrainian ships carried these before they were all confiscated in Crimea, and could do so again).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It seems unlikely given how badly they are outmatched, but hopefully the remnants of the Ukrainian Navy and Sea Guard snuck a salvage team in after the Moskva sank. The Russians abandoning ship probably left some spare parts for valuable systems like the S-300 behind.

Relevant to this is the point that “Ukraine does not have submarines”, a misinterpretation of their lack of attack/torpedo-armed submarines. Their special forces (not part of the navy) may still have a small number of old midget/diving submarines; if they’re operational or can be restored to service, these could get to a ship that’s only 50m underwater.

[DINGO Joe]

Regarding the commercial movement of goods I found a couple of recent articles that suggest nothing is moving via sea in Odessa and instead there are efforts to to create land rail and rail/river (Danube) supply chains with obvious bottlenecks. 

https://theloadstar.com/struggling-ukrainian-shippers-could-find-a-way-out-for-their-cargo-via-bulgaria/

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/21/1094119446/russia-is-strangling-one-of-ukraines-most-important-ports


Given that the rail and road lines in Western Ukraine are functioning, though probably overburdened, I just don't see why an entity would be trying to smuggle in supplies along the coast or up the Dniester.  Though if you run across something, I'd be interest to hear about it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, not so much common sense, because based on some of the common rhetoric here you would think every person with a different reaction was an anti-western contrarian lol

When in fact, there are German intelectuals and German government itself being hesitant to throw themselves into that kind of push. If it’s actually a “diverse of opinions” topic instead of the one acceptable position only even inside Europe like you say then that just points how non-realistic it is to expect outside places to have a different reaction, to say the least.

I think you’re mixing up two different ideas here. The first idea is that various different opinions EXIST on a specific issue. The second is that all of these opinions are equally „acceptable“ or possess equal merit. Merely proving that the first one is true doesn’t make the second one automatically true as well.

And I think most users in this thread are aware of the factuality of first idea, while they would probably disagree with the assumption the second one makes. Pointing out the existence of open letters of pacifist activists from Germany will probably change neither the former nor the latter. But this is why I probably declared the letter „irrelevant“ in the very beginning of this discussion.

Which evidences it’s not a ideological thing. When you have these leftist types + the economic neoliberal types basically signaling towards the same thing, it naturally points to a specific political culture established over the years that is not related to these left/right abstractions

First of all, I don’t really know which „economic neoliberal types“, who are supposedly advocating the „surrender“ of Ukraine in a similar manner this left-wing activist letter does, you are referring to here. A recent statement of German business leaders indicated that they’re working under the assumption that a normalization of economic relations with Russia will only occur after Vladimir Putin either has left or has been removed from office – and nothing else. This invalidates the assumption your premise is based on here, and therefore it isn’t really an evidence for anything.

But let’s assume, just for the sake of the argument, that there were theoretically speaking such „economic neoliberals“ making such demands. There could any number  of reasons why they would hold such positions in concurrence with pacifist activists outside of a „specific political culture“ that is based on „economic neoliberalism“. The real world is a little bit more complex than just being subject to one singular explanation.

As a general concept it seems a bit hard to grasp for you, but not everyone in the world is primarily acting according to what YOU would consider in their „national economic interest“. Some do. Some don‘t. Others do to some extent, but other factors and priorites play into it as well  - priorities that may supersede the „national economic interest“. And yet others do act in their „national economic interest“, but their definition of what that term entails may differ from YOUR definition. Like I said, the real world is a little bit more complex than just being subject to one singular explanation, and even if it would it surely wouldn’t be YOUR one singular explanation.

That being said, oldschool left-wing pacifist activists from Germany who are advocating a stop of arms shipments and promoting a cease-fire are of course calling for such things because they are, well, pacifists. To assume otherwise would either be insinuating that they are dishonest about their motives or that they are in fact UNAWARE of their own true motives. And again, even if they were unconscious of their own motives YOU probably wouldn’t be the one person who figures out these motives from wherever you are sitting in Brazil – without even talking to them or something.

Moving towards something doesn’t mean the shift happens instantly. That’s exactly why Germany is being criticized by both Eastern Europeans and western Warhawks saying their ideological leadership over the Merkel era put the continent in danger.

I agree there’s pressure to move to a more nationalist POV with the de-globalization push as I said, but I don’t expect the political elite to fall in line automatically.

Well, German citizens are criticizing their government in the very same manner Eastern Europeans or „Western warhawks“ do or at least they’re holding such viewpoints. Not all of them, but about a half maybe. And they of course criticize their fellow citizens for not agreeing with them. And some political parties in my country criticize other political parties in a similar manner for similar reasons. It’s not just Germany as a monolithic unit against other countries as a monolithic countries. Like I said above, the real world is a little a bit more complex than that.

That second paragraph of yours about a „nationalist POV“ and „de-globalization“ hasn’t anything to do with Ukraine though, and neither is there „pressure“ to move towards it.

[Storr]

Very embarrassing if Russian air defense let missiles or helicopters come 120km inside Russian territory and strike an important target.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1518379227476803585?s=20&t=-T1HInegVJ_...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1518381399392374784?s=20&t=-T1HInegVJ_...

[NOVA Green]

Very embarrassing if Russian air defense let missiles or helicopters come 120km inside Russian territory and strike an important target.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1518379227476803585?s=20&t=-T1HInegVJ_...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1518381399392374784?s=20&t=-T1HInegVJ_...

IDK WTF is going on, but if not sabotage or target missile strikes, quite possibly a drone strike with new "defensive hardware"

[Person Man]

Very embarrassing if Russian air defense let missiles or helicopters come 120km inside Russian territory and strike an important target.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1518379227476803585?s=20&t=-T1HInegVJ_...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1518381399392374784?s=20&t=-T1HInegVJ_...

IDK WTF is going on, but if not sabotage or target missile strikes, quite possibly a drone strike with new "defensive hardware"

LETS F***ING GO!

[NOVA Green]

Wouldn't be surprised if Russian Troopers are not listening to Metallica's "One", which was written as a heavy metal anthem in the post-Vietnam and potential Nuclear War Era...

Pretty sure "Ear Buds" and "Wi-Fi" generally works even in much the Russian Occupied parts of Ukraine.

Last time I checked Russia has only banned hip-hop and various forms of folk music and NOT Heavy Metal.

Not all young Russians have easy exists.

Not all Russian Soldiers and Conscripts chose this war.

Still, as Russian Military casualties mount to a point in just a few short months, despite the repression and oppression, where Afghanistan is starting to look like "child's play".

The convoys of the injured from the war keep coming back home to their various communities.

The Russian young people honestly don't understand why their parents and grandparents don't understand what is actually going on.

Still, just like when I lived in East Germany & Poland shortly after the changes, musical forms are still popular, despite the fact that certain genres are much less popular than they used to be.

[The Dowager Mod]

Aint no party like a Gvozdika party! 
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1518399473428443138

[Virginiá]

I can hear those eardrums begging for mercy^^

[pppolitics]

What is the chance that Putin declares full mobilization?

[DINGO Joe]

What is the chance that Putin declares full mobilization?

WTF is he going to mobilize?

[Logical]

Excellent meltdown on Russian propaganda channels. Almost as good as the day the Moskva sank. The usual idiots are begging Putin to call it a war.

[The Dowager Mod]

Those of us who grew up during the height of the cold war used to have bad dreams just like this.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1518420462816346113

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1516454620335415300
This might of been a false flag. Look at the time stamps

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1518435488927035393

[Logical]

https://mobile.twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1516454620335415300
This might of been a false flag. Look at the time stamps

An oil depot and an ammunition storage site was hit. These are critical infrastructure for the Russian AF and legitimate military targets. A false flag attack would target apartment blocks, schools or hospitals for propaganda value.

[Yoda]

Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin are going to Kyiv to meet with Zelenskiy

Anyone want to take bets on whether Putin tries to have them killed?

I've done my fair share of rolling my eyes at posters who claim that literally any direct action taken against Russian forces will start WWIII, but this would literally start WWIII.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1516454620335415300
This might of been a false flag. Look at the time stamps

An oil depot and an ammunition storage site was hit. These are critical infrastructure for the Russian AF and legitimate military targets. A false flag attack would target apartment blocks, schools or hospitals for propaganda value.

Those are good points but the possibility can’t be diminished after everything we have seen that the Kremlin would be legitimately be stupid enough to false flag actual military targets over something more practical

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Now_in_Ukraine/status/1518455997420945410
https://mobile.twitter.com/Now_in_Ukraine/status/1518456161325961219

[Yoda]

I can hear those eardrums begging for mercy^^

My first thought was "why aren't they wearing ear protection"

[Yoda]

https://mobile.twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1516454620335415300
This might of been a false flag. Look at the time stamps

An oil depot and an ammunition storage site was hit. These are critical infrastructure for the Russian AF and legitimate military targets. A false flag attack would target apartment blocks, schools or hospitals for propaganda value.

Those are good points but the possibility can’t be diminished after everything we have seen that the Kremlin would be legitimately be stupid enough to false flag actual military targets over something more practical

I suppose you're right that it's still a possibility. We know Russia has the oil to spare, but do they have the ammunition to literally burn? I guess they could have moved it elsewhere. There's almost nothing I would put past Putin but this does seem very counter productive for almost no "gain" in the propaganda war. No one's going to shed a tear over this target.

[Logical]

I'm almost certain now the attacks on Bryansk were carried out by a Ukrainian black ops team.
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1518480280100782080

[DINGO Joe]

I don't think Ukraine is behind the fires in Russia. I think it's some collection of oligarchs who are trying to make Putin crack.  Just pure conjecture.

[Badger]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/russian-forces-hit-logistics-terminal-of-foreign-weapons-near-odessa-122042400074_1.html

"Russian forces hit logistics terminal of foreign weapons near Odessa"

Russia claims to have destroyed a logistics terminal in Odessa which had a bunch of foreign weapons in transit.  If true it does show a good amount of foreign weapons into Ukraine are seabound versus overland.

Glad to see Phil is so happy about this that he recommended your post.