Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

If the goal is to actively cut the supply line, I still think a Zaporizhzhia->Vasylivka->Melitpol offensive would be better. Even then taking Melitopol would be extremely difficult and could result in a humiliating withdrawal.

(Or just do a #bigbrain move and do a landing from Nikopol to Enerhodar across the Dnieper, totally)

It’s heartening to see that Atlas is in the presence of a genius of military tactics.

Be fair. The Russian generals aren't Vladimir Putin isn't doing much better.

Corrected for greater accuracy

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1507291138759303171

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1507297590387392519?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

[Torie]

I thought I saw this 400,000 figures yesterday, but then could not find it, but it is back as to the matter of the movement of Ukrainians into Russia. The number and whether the movement is voluntary or involuntary, or both, and if involuntary, what the Russian intent is, is clouded by the fog of war.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/russia/599686-over-400000-ukrainians-taken-to-russia-against-their-will?utm_source=thehill&utm_medium=widgets&utm_campaign=es_recommended_content

BBC has excellent maps of the state of the battle in Ukraine, including zoom in insets.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

[Person Man]

I thought I saw this 400,000 figures yesterday, but then could not find it, but it is back as to the matter of the movement of Ukrainians into Russia. The number and whether the movement is voluntary or involuntary, or both, and if involuntary, what the Russian intent is, is clouded by the fog of war.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/russia/599686-over-400000-ukrainians-taken-to-russia-against-their-will?utm_source=thehill&utm_medium=widgets&utm_campaign=es_recommended_content

BBC has excellent maps of the state of the battle in Ukraine, including zoom in insets.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

Hoped this isn’t the start of a genocide.

[afleitch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1507333553448800309

Unexpected Terf Island crossover event

[CumbrianLefty]

His brain really has rotted away, hasn't it?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1507333553448800309
Unexpected Terf Island crossover event

“Mr President, we need reinforcements.”

“You’re on your own. I need every troop in Russia to fight political correctness.”

“But we’re pinned at Irpin and Bucha!”

“You weren’t born that way, and you don’t have a right to reinforcements. Stop being woke.”

[Zinneke]

The way he goes from Hiroshima to JK Rowling jfc what timeline is this

[Torie]

What was  the occasion of Vladimir "the Renaissance Man" Putin's tour de horizon of military history, cancel culture, and the nexus of culture and gender?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1507193029064593409

[Storr]

Only 2 days off.
Note his condition is now reported to be ill in the hospital, he had covid recently.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1507282196838731777?s=20&t=ptFKsPJ...

[CumbrianLefty]

Is his death now officially confirmed? An hour or two ago people were still disputing it.

[Storr]

Based. The article says only the Colonel's legs were injured, unfortunately.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1507288589280894998?s=20&t=pLV5Ra3A...

[Storr]

Is his death now officially confirmed? An hour or two ago people were still disputing it.

Unclear.

translation of RIA post: " Ministry of Health: Zhirinovsky's condition is assessed as stable, doctors continue to provide all possible medical assistance in this situation"

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1507283376138600455?s=20&t=YPikkTA...

[Badger]

I thought I saw this 400,000 figures yesterday, but then could not find it, but it is back as to the matter of the movement of Ukrainians into Russia. The number and whether the movement is voluntary or involuntary, or both, and if involuntary, what the Russian intent is, is clouded by the fog of war.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/russia/599686-over-400000-ukrainians-taken-to-russia-against-their-will?utm_source=thehill&utm_medium=widgets&utm_campaign=es_recommended_content

BBC has excellent maps of the state of the battle in Ukraine, including zoom in insets.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

 This mass ethnic cleansing is the most under reported aspect of this war

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

RU MoD apparently states that the demilitarisation of Ukraine is already achieved and that though they do not rule out storming other cities once their primary goals are achieved, their main objective is now to fully secure the Donbas: https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/03/25/7334499/

Russian forces have continued to make gains there over the last few days, and taking all of Donetsk/Luhansk might allow them an off-ramp to abandon the rest of the war and seek a ceasefire (in the short-to-medium term, at least).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

_{(If you get the reference, you get the reference. I'm not going to explain).}

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I thought I saw this 400,000 figures yesterday, but then could not find it, but it is back as to the matter of the movement of Ukrainians into Russia. The number and whether the movement is voluntary or involuntary, or both, and if involuntary, what the Russian intent is, is clouded by the fog of war.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/russia/599686-over-400000-ukrainians-taken-to-russia-against-their-will?utm_source=thehill&utm_medium=widgets&utm_campaign=es_recommended_content

BBC has excellent maps of the state of the battle in Ukraine, including zoom in insets.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

 This mass ethnic cleansing is the most under reported aspect of this war

The scale isn’t clear and might never be.

[Torie]

_{(If you get the reference, you get the reference. I'm not going to explain).}

Al won't, but inasmuch as  the Oracle of Delphi never impressed me, I will thanks to the internets (a tool that can help make more level the playing field with amazing efficiency when used properly)  enlightening me. Not everyone is a specialist in these things. Just how apt the analogy actually proves to be is a work in progress.


https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/ramses-ii

[Sir Mohamed]

Looks like Russia wants to primarily focus on Donbas now. Pretty much admission that they failed with their larger objective.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1507378193661145097

[afleitch]

Post deleted. Compucomp do not derail this thread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is his death now officially confirmed? An hour or two ago people were still disputing it.

Unclear.

translation of RIA post: " Ministry of Health: Zhirinovsky's condition is assessed as stable, doctors continue to provide all possible medical assistance in this situation"

Being dead is a pretty stable condition.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Protests in Poland blocking retail chains that have not pulled out of Russia.

[Torie]

Germany extracting itself from using Russian sourced fossil fuel is moving much faster than anticipated.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/25/world/ukraine-russia-war#germany-russia-gas

And then there is this:

“Russia signaled on Friday that it may be reducing its war aims. The Defense Ministry said that the goals of the “first stage of the operation” had been “mainly accomplished,” with Ukraine’s combat power “significantly reduced.” Maj. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi said that Russia would now focus on defeating Ukrainian forces in the eastern Donbas region. While Russia “does not exclude” that its forces will storm major Ukrainian cities such as Kyiv, he said that taking them over was not a primary objective.”

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/25/world/ukraine-russia-war

Storming major cities as a sideshow that is not a primary objective is a discordant thought to get my mind around. I am not optimistic about any of this until it becomes clear that the real quid pro quo will be Russia accepting that Ukraine’s military will be strengthened to the point that another Russian invasion will just not be feasible for it. That is where the rubber meets the road it seems to me.

I wonder how well Russia will do economically if the West really does not purchasing Russian natural resources, and if firms deem it too risky from a business standpoint to invest to do business with Russia.  Can it make its living selling to China?

And I wonder to the extent its happening that Putin is dialing back his objectives, whether the
rapid German withdrawal from its embrace with Russia economically had anything to do with Putin's tack back, assuming there really is one.