Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

One of the most interesting posts ever to me was the comment made by compucomp, presumably sincerely and without guile, that he was very open to the idea of adjusting his views as the PRC government adjusted its views. I remember way back when, when John Chancellor commented during the Nixon in China time, about the aspect of Chinese culture that it respects authority.

This is so foreign to the mindset in American culture, and presumably the Anglosphere in general, where authority is there to be challenged, and it is held in suspicion. I admit that I get a naughty little pleasure in violation malum prohibitum laws that I think are silly or inane.

Anyway, it is just a cultural difference that should be borne in mind when interacting with other posters. You are not going to chance a poster's mindset in general here. In my experience, getting on in life is more about trying to accommodate and navigate around the eccentricities as you see it of people, rather than to reform them into your image, or an image that you would prefer. Attempting the latter will generally lead to frustration and disappointment.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

One of the most interesting posts ever to me was the comment made by compucomp, presumably sincerely and without guile, that he was very open to the idea of adjusting his views as the PRC government adjusted its views. I remember way back when, when John Chancellor commented during the Nixon in China time, about the aspect of Chinese culture that it respects authority.

This is so foreign to the mindset in American culture, and presumably the Anglosphere in general, where authority is there to be challenged, and it is held in suspicion. I admit that I get a naughty little pleasure in violation malum prohibitum laws that I think are silly or inane.

Anyway, it is just a cultural difference that should be borne in mind when interacting with other posters. You are not going to chance a poster's mindset in general here. In my experience, getting on in life is more about trying to accommodate and navigate around the eccentricities as you see it of people, rather than to reform them into your image, or an image that you would prefer. Attempting the latter will generally lead to frustration and disappointment.

It's not the prevailing view (probably not in China, either), but partisans in America take the majority of their political cues from the leaders they've thrown their lot in with, and sometimes they do this consciously. The difference in China is that there is only one set of partisans.

It's just this taken to an extreme:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He must have had bad ratings or something.

They're saying that a server glitched out, which, um.

[Torie]

One of the most interesting posts ever to me was the comment made by compucomp, presumably sincerely and without guile, that he was very open to the idea of adjusting his views as the PRC government adjusted its views. I remember way back when, when John Chancellor commented during the Nixon in China time, about the aspect of Chinese culture that it respects authority.

This is so foreign to the mindset in American culture, and presumably the Anglosphere in general, where authority is there to be challenged, and it is held in suspicion. I admit that I get a naughty little pleasure in violation malum prohibitum laws that I think are silly or inane.

Anyway, it is just a cultural difference that should be borne in mind when interacting with other posters. You are not going to chance a poster's mindset in general here. In my experience, getting on in life is more about trying to accommodate and navigate around the eccentricities as you see it of people, rather than to reform them into your image, or an image that you would prefer. Attempting the latter will generally lead to frustration and disappointment.

It's not the prevailing view (probably not in China, either), but partisans in America take the majority of their political cues from the leaders they've thrown their lot in with, and sometimes they do this consciously. The difference in China is that there is only one set of partisans.

It's just this taken to an extreme:

Quite. The idea that if one would but spend one's time sitting at the feet of politicians as if they were Socrates or Aristotle, one would become wiser, is indeed utterly foreign to me. That assumes of course that wisdom is not co-extensive with honing the art of the spin, until one earns a doctorate therein.

[Torie]

Was there anything of interest in the speech or was it the same "we have to nazify Ukraine in order to denazify it" crapola as always?

Pure wind. The bit that got accidentally cut out by his own state broadcaster was a rambling anecdote about the invasi Special Military Operation beginning on the birthday of Fyodor Ushakhov (1745-1817) who is now the patron saint of the Russian Navy and the Russian Nuclear Bombers Fleet but, more importantly, was instrumental in the conquest of the Crimea and the founding of Sevastopol and various ports along the Black Sea coast, including Kherson.

You understand Russian? I must say that for a 70 year old, Putin appears quite fit and feisty.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In case anyone has wondered, Russia has paid his debt on schedule yesterday therefore avoiding sovereign default for the time being. It also means that they've started to deplete their limited dollar reserves though.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1504521729670008833



S&P has further downgraded Russia from CCC- to CC, outlook: negative.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1504736681953579018

[urutzizu]

Interestingly, something that Scholz said today managed to anger both Russia and Ukraine and make them agree (but not in a positive way). Scholz said "This war is Putin's war".

In response Zelensky's Chief Foreign Policy Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak criticized Chancellor Olaf Scholz for "defending the Russian people". According to him Scholz just wanted to justify his indecisiveness. "A distinction is spreading in Europe between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian people. But that is wrong: according to surveys, a majority of the Russian population supports the war and the killing of Ukrainians." Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also criticized Scholz's remarks, stating that also the Russian people bear responsibility for the war. While in Russia, Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov also criticized Scholz's remarks for trying to divide the President from the Russian people.
 
It seems that the one thing both sides agree, if for different reasons, on is that this war is not a war between the governments, but a total war by the Russian nation against Ukrainian nation. Whilst the people who disagree with this are westerners, either because they are naive and don't want to believe it, or because they are looking for a politically correct excuse not to "punish the Russian people" with the harshest possible sanction for the irredentist and genocidal views that the vast majority, yes, not all, but most of them share.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Interestingly, something that Scholz said today managed to anger both Russia and Ukraine and make them agree (but not in a positive way). Scholz said "This war is Putin's war".

In response Zelensky's Chief Foreign Policy Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak criticized Chancellor Olaf Scholz for "defending the Russian people". According to him Scholz just wanted to justify his indecisiveness. "A distinction is spreading in Europe between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian people. But that is wrong: according to surveys, a majority of the Russian population supports the war and the killing of Ukrainians." Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also criticized Scholz's remarks, stating that also the Russian people bear responsibility for the war. While in Russia, Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov also criticized Scholz's remarks for trying to divide the President from the Russian people.
 
It seems that the one thing both sides agree, if for different reasons, on is that this war is not a war between the governments, but a total war by the Russian nation against Ukrainian nation. Whilst the people who disagree with this are westerners, either because they are naive and don't want to believe it, or because they are looking for a politically correct excuse not to "punish the Russian people" with the harshest possible sanction for the irredentist and genocidal views that the vast majority, yes, not all, but most of them share.

Well, strategically speaking it is sound to try to drive a wedge between the Russian people and their president and providing the former with a way out by getting rid of the latter (not that this will necessarily work, but still..). Blaming the Russian people would actually confirm Putin's propaganda and therefore hurting Russian dissidents' cause.

Also, publicly blaming the Russian people would only help bolster anti-Russian sentiments, like the recent arson attack against the Lomonosov School in Berlin. We need to do everything to deescalate on this end, to keep the dumb people in check.

[Cassius]

Western observers (and the Ukrainian government) have been trying very hard to make this into a clash of systems and ideologies. It’s not; it really is ‘two tribes go to war’.

[It’s so Joever]

Western observers (and the Ukrainian government) have been trying very hard to make this into a clash of systems and ideologies. It’s not; it really is ‘two tribes go to war’.

Perhaps, but one tribe is going to engage in less suppression of the other tribe than the other.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Evidence that Russia is probably drawing from its own supply of Tochka missiles rather than using those of Belarus (which are still in active use):

https://www.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1504846855347257361
Tochkas are effective and were only retired by Russia at the end of 2020, so they should be usable with minimal maintenance. Still, Ukrainians should be pleased to see them popping up more - it’s an indicator that Russia is running out of their more advanced Iskander missiles.

[afleitch]

Western observers (and the Ukrainian government) have been trying very hard to make this into a clash of systems and ideologies. It’s not; it really is ‘two tribes go to war’.

If you look at both nations and see no difference between them in terms of 'systems and ideologies' then I have a bridge to sell you.

[Insula Dei]

Massive pro-war rally in the Luzhniki football stadium. Expect Putin to deliver a blood and soil speech.

Bit of a fiasco. People (esp. state employees) were bussed in as per the old Soviet traditions and a number left as soon as their tickets were stamped, and the TV feed for Putin's speech rather bizarrely cut off shortly before the conclusion.

Gonna take a break from lurking here to point out that my understanding of the logic of putinism is that it has always been about manifacturing acceptance rather than drumming up enthusiasm. From that point of view the continued ability to rely on loyalist segments of the cultural and media establishment to get up on stage and sing a medley of peace anthems in front of a banner proclaiming a 'World without Nazism' seems to be the key message, no?

'Yes, everything will be a bit worse than it was a month ago, but the optics are still acceptable.'

It is fascinating in this light to just read the sheer 'copium' Western sanctions have induced in the Kremlin-alligned media. Komsomolskaya Pravda has literally been running articles of the form 'Triumphs and problems of Kim Jong Un: under total isolation from the West North Korea still shoots missiles into space and develops ski resorts' or 'Goodbye to McDonalds - on the other side of the street this restaurant takes you back to the golden days of the Soviet Union: don't expect soft couches or atmospheric lighting here.' The point seems in some way to be to redefine what is acceptable. (Of course, those people - the urban middle classes - which had been used to think of the future in terms other than slow decline are leaving or have already done so - but in the new reality they were possibly more bother than they were worth anyway.)

[Cassius]

Western observers (and the Ukrainian government) have been trying very hard to make this into a clash of systems and ideologies. It’s not; it really is ‘two tribes go to war’.

If you look at both nations and see no difference between them in terms of 'systems and ideologies' then I have a bridge to sell you.

I mean, the principle ‘ideology’ of every Ukrainian government for the last thirty years has been ‘gib money pls’ (Poroshenko’s coddling of nationalism and Zelensky’s dressing himself up as a defender of liberal democracy notwithstanding). The only reason that there has been no authoritarian consolidation in Ukraine (as occurred in most other post-Soviet states) is because the country is too variegated and ultimately it suits big business interests for there not to be one dominant figure to whom they owe subservience (in this sense Ukraine is in fact more oligarch dominated than Russia is commonly assumed to be). The current Ukrainian government simultaneously appeals to the liberal west for arms and arms Ukrainian Neo-Nazis (they may be small in numbers but this is verifiably true). Zelensky and the Ukrainian elite aren’t fighting for democracy and liberalism, they’re fighting because they don’t like the Russians and don’t want the Russians muscling in on the pie in Ukraine (and now of course they’re fighting for their lives, which they’re obviously entitled to do).

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/JerryDunleavy/status/1504857504886538245

[Person Man]

One of the most interesting posts ever to me was the comment made by compucomp, presumably sincerely and without guile, that he was very open to the idea of adjusting his views as the PRC government adjusted its views. I remember way back when, when John Chancellor commented during the Nixon in China time, about the aspect of Chinese culture that it respects authority.

This is so foreign to the mindset in American culture, and presumably the Anglosphere in general, where authority is there to be challenged, and it is held in suspicion. I admit that I get a naughty little pleasure in violation malum prohibitum laws that I think are silly or inane.

Anyway, it is just a cultural difference that should be borne in mind when interacting with other posters. You are not going to chance a poster's mindset in general here. In my experience, getting on in life is more about trying to accommodate and navigate around the eccentricities as you see it of people, rather than to reform them into your image, or an image that you would prefer. Attempting the latter will generally lead to frustration and disappointment.

It's not the prevailing view (probably not in China, either), but partisans in America take the majority of their political cues from the leaders they've thrown their lot in with, and sometimes they do this consciously. The difference in China is that there is only one set of partisans.

It's just this taken to an extreme:

Quite. The idea that if one would but spend one's time sitting at the feet of politicians as if they were Socrates or Aristotle, one would become wiser, is indeed utterly foreign to me. That assumes of course that wisdom is not co-extensive with honing the art of the spin, until one earns a doctorate therein.

Either that, or you can learn from what they do wrong, too.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Interestingly, something that Scholz said today managed to anger both Russia and Ukraine and make them agree (but not in a positive way). Scholz said "This war is Putin's war".

In response Zelensky's Chief Foreign Policy Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak criticized Chancellor Olaf Scholz for "defending the Russian people". According to him Scholz just wanted to justify his indecisiveness. "A distinction is spreading in Europe between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian people. But that is wrong: according to surveys, a majority of the Russian population supports the war and the killing of Ukrainians." Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also criticized Scholz's remarks, stating that also the Russian people bear responsibility for the war. While in Russia, Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov also criticized Scholz's remarks for trying to divide the President from the Russian people.
 
It seems that the one thing both sides agree, if for different reasons, on is that this war is not a war between the governments, but a total war by the Russian nation against Ukrainian nation. Whilst the people who disagree with this are westerners, either because they are naive and don't want to believe it, or because they are looking for a politically correct excuse not to "punish the Russian people" with the harshest possible sanction for the irredentist and genocidal views that the vast majority, yes, not all, but most of them share.

The other thing is that this hasn't really been Zelensky's own framing, but differences of opinion within a government on how much blame to assign to enemy civilians is far from unusual in wars of this scale.

[It’s so Joever]

Western observers (and the Ukrainian government) have been trying very hard to make this into a clash of systems and ideologies. It’s not; it really is ‘two tribes go to war’.

If you look at both nations and see no difference between them in terms of 'systems and ideologies' then I have a bridge to sell you.

Honestly as much as I support Ukraine, I would caution against this statement. Ukraine's governments post Soviet union have been notoriously corrupt and Ukraine is largely an oligarchy much like Russia. While yes there are elections that are more fair...its really just a bunch of empty promises every cycle. That is part of the reason Ukraine is literally the second lowest country in GDP per capita in all of Europe (first if one is are a pathetic Serb nationalist who can't accept that Kosovo is sovereign)
While I do think Ukraine could well have a much better future due to increased investment from the West and greater national unity if they do somehow survive the invasion (they won't in the short term but that is a different story) there still are serious corruption problems that need to be addressed. I believe Zelenskyy actually was much more committed to this than his predecessors, but I can't tell you the success of those efforts. Regardless, Ukraine will need to see true economic liberalization and a reduction of oligarch power if they want to thrive post war.

I also do think Ukraine should allow Russian to be a second official language. By not doing it, they just enforce the idea one can't be a Russophone and a patriotic Ukrainian, and that has only further incentivized separatism. This should be done especially after the many brave Russophone Ukrainians who are fighting against the invaders in Mariupol and Kharkiv.

Of course i am no expert on Ukrainian politics and I could be just speaking out of my a**.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Western observers (and the Ukrainian government) have been trying very hard to make this into a clash of systems and ideologies. It’s not; it really is ‘two tribes go to war’.

If you look at both nations and see no difference between them in terms of 'systems and ideologies' then I have a bridge to sell you.

Honestly as much as I support Ukraine, I would caution against this statement. Ukraine's governments post Soviet union have been notoriously corrupt and Ukraine is largely an oligarchy much like Russia. While yes there are elections that are more fair...its really just a bunch of empty promises every cycle. That is part of the reason Ukraine is literally the second lowest country in GDP per capita in all of Europe (first if one is are a pathetic Serb nationalist who can't accept that Kosovo is sovereign)
While I do think Ukraine could well have a much better future due to increased investment from the West and greater national unity if they do somehow survive the invasion (they won't in the short term but that is a different story) there still are serious corruption problems that need to be addressed. I believe Zelenskyy actually was much more committed to this than his predecessors, but I can't tell you the success of those efforts. Regardless, Ukraine will need to see true economic liberalization and a reduction of oligarch power if they want to thrive post war.

I also do think Ukraine should allow Russian to be a second official language. By not doing it, they just enforce the idea one can't be a Russophone and a patriotic Ukrainian, and that has only further incentivized separatism. This should be done especially after the many brave Russophone Ukrainians who are fighting against the invaders in Mariupol and Kharkiv.

Of course i am no expert on Ukrainian politics and I could be just speaking out of my a**.

A corrupt, oligarchic democracy is still a different and better system from an autocracy in which, especially, independent media doesn't exist. (Imagine getting bombarded with Newsmax-tier propaganda from literally every remotely mainstream news source for decades for context on why the majority of Russians still support the war.) Ukraine is also, as I've said before, actively speedrunning adoption of a more civic and liberal nationalism as this invasion continues.

[It’s so Joever]

Western observers (and the Ukrainian government) have been trying very hard to make this into a clash of systems and ideologies. It’s not; it really is ‘two tribes go to war’.

If you look at both nations and see no difference between them in terms of 'systems and ideologies' then I have a bridge to sell you.

Honestly as much as I support Ukraine, I would caution against this statement. Ukraine's governments post Soviet union have been notoriously corrupt and Ukraine is largely an oligarchy much like Russia. While yes there are elections that are more fair...its really just a bunch of empty promises every cycle. That is part of the reason Ukraine is literally the second lowest country in GDP per capita in all of Europe (first if one is are a pathetic Serb nationalist who can't accept that Kosovo is sovereign)
While I do think Ukraine could well have a much better future due to increased investment from the West and greater national unity if they do somehow survive the invasion (they won't in the short term but that is a different story) there still are serious corruption problems that need to be addressed. I believe Zelenskyy actually was much more committed to this than his predecessors, but I can't tell you the success of those efforts. Regardless, Ukraine will need to see true economic liberalization and a reduction of oligarch power if they want to thrive post war.

I also do think Ukraine should allow Russian to be a second official language. By not doing it, they just enforce the idea one can't be a Russophone and a patriotic Ukrainian, and that has only further incentivized separatism. This should be done especially after the many brave Russophone Ukrainians who are fighting against the invaders in Mariupol and Kharkiv.

Of course i am no expert on Ukrainian politics and I could be just speaking out of my a**.

A corrupt, oligarchic democracy is still a different and better system from an autocracy in which, especially, independent media doesn't exist. (Imagine getting bombarded with Newsmax-tier propaganda from literally every remotely mainstream news source for decades for context on why the majority of Russians still support the war.) Ukraine is also, as I've said before, actively speedrunning adoption of a more civic and liberal nationalism as this invasion continues.

Oh I don't at all disagree, and that's a huge reason why I am such a strong proponent of Ukraine in this conflict and am urging for the West to do more (along with geopolitical alignments and the fact that Russia likely will at this point do a genocide if they do control Ukraine)

[Logical]

Western observers (and the Ukrainian government) have been trying very hard to make this into a clash of systems and ideologies. It’s not; it really is ‘two tribes go to war’.

If you look at both nations and see no difference between them in terms of 'systems and ideologies' then I have a bridge to sell you.

Honestly as much as I support Ukraine, I would caution against this statement. Ukraine's governments post Soviet union have been notoriously corrupt and Ukraine is largely an oligarchy much like Russia. While yes there are elections that are more fair...its really just a bunch of empty promises every cycle. That is part of the reason Ukraine is literally the second lowest country in GDP per capita in all of Europe (first if one is are a pathetic Serb nationalist who can't accept that Kosovo is sovereign)

Not that different from the US then...
Besides, this war has pulled the mask off from Putin's Russia. Even your token opposition and critics have been forced to flee for their safety. It no longer pretends to be a democratic state, it has fully embraced despotic authoritarianism complete with its own fascist imagery.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think comments like that are particularly significant. Temperatures get quite high during wars, especially very large and very nasty ones like this. That's just the way it goes. Getting involved in that side of things would be an error from a Western perspective, which is why even re-heated Cold War rhetoric is something to be extremely wary of.

[Lord Halifax]

Western observers (and the Ukrainian government) have been trying very hard to make this into a clash of systems and ideologies. It’s not; it really is ‘two tribes go to war’.

well, bigger tribe attacks smaller tribe it had promised not to attack in international agreement (after smaller tribe voluntarily gave up its most dangerous weapons), claiming smaller tribe has no right to exist and is really just a part of their tribe.

the main problem with the "tribal" argument is that it leads to a "both sides are as bad as each other (so we shouldn't pick sides)" logic, but even if Ukraine was a fascist dictatorship or an Islamic theocracy Russia would still have had no right to attack it, and it's necessary to prevent Russia from gaining any advantages from its invasion to prevent other great powers from embarking on wars of aggression/conquest.

I agree Ukraine is more oligarch dominated than Russia, but it's easier to democratize an oligarchy with slightly dysfunctional democratic institutions and competitive elections (which is arguably what both the US and Ukraine are), than an authoritarian state with "democratic window dressing" like Russia.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's also a little tricky given that the usual ethnic and linguistic tensions that have bedevilled Ukrainian politics have (for the while) melted away in the face of invasion. I'm sure there are a lot of people who do feel that way, of course, but see above.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1504892608660840450

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1504892944867856385