Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1502824843389059074?s=20&t=PSPLYy...

[NOVA Green]

Big if true, take with a large quantity of salt:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1502806708044849156?s=20&t=O9RGac...

Honestly would not be surprised at all if Belarus conscripts and even regular NCOs and even perhaps mid-ranking Military Officers are refusing to go and fight in Ukraine in "Russia's War".

It is not at all uncommon for even draftees to refuse to fight or "Go to War", even within Western Industrialized Democracies.

At the risk of dating myself somewhat, I still recall a story from a Vietnam War draftee back around '98-'00 telling me about his experiences in Vietnam and how he ended up in "The Brig" at Fort Leavenworth bcs he refused orders.

He described his prison sentence as essentially consisting of moving piles of rocks back and forth every day.

Despite his resistance to the War and whatever actions had caused his military disciplinary proceedings he was a long haul trucker so never really had a chance to talk too much about his military background, but considering his small 2-Bedroom apartment effectively became a massive "party house", where my ex-wife spent way too much time and was the oldest person to occasionally come by we did have some really good 1:1 talks over a couple beers and cigs in between the next time he had to jump in a rig.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Disciplinary_Barracks

[It’s so Joever]

The Russians appear to have withdrawn from Skadovsk. Not sure whether they just decided it wasn’t worth it or if they were pushed back, but I’m betting on the former.

[Badger]

Something my oldest friend texted to me.  Absolutely worth the 5 minutes read to explain why Russia's military is so bad

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502673952572854278?s=20&t=VKopazV0byqI-cLBHQoYCQ

 Quick preview. It talks about how talks about how the military leadership is kept intentionally castrated and, frankly, stupid by the Russian leadership so it cannot threaten said leadership or the state's security forces. It involves such symptoms as, I kid you not, the Russian mafia regularly shaking down Army bases, even ones where nukes are stationed, with the full tacit support port of the government, and even conscripts being forced into gay prostitution to make cash for hire ups.

[Person Man]

Something my oldest friend texted to me.  Absolutely worth the 5 minutes read to explain why Russia's military is so bad

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502673952572854278?s=20&t=VKopazV0byqI-cLBHQoYCQ

 Quick preview. It talks about how talks about how the military leadership is kept intentionally castrated and, frankly, stupid by the Russian leadership so it cannot threaten said leadership or the state's security forces. It involves such symptoms as, I kid you not, the Russian mafia regularly shaking down Army bases, even ones where nukes are stationed, with the full tacit support port of the government, government Kama and even conscripts being forced in the gay prostitution to make cash for hire ups.

This sounds more like a Florida Man thing than anything else.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/social_brains/status/1502091119651213313?s=20&t=HQhYhY2i...

[Storr]

Poland_invoking_NATO_article_5_meme.png

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502868126085570560?s=20&t=R7mVaon0k...

[Joe Republic]

(Hilarious if true…)

https://twitter.com/TOrynski/status/1502274459620855812

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1502879082987593733?s=20&t=GDgCu77As...

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1502879082987593733?s=20&t=GDgCu77As...

And the other 20 didn't vote, there were zero members in favour of joining with Russia.

[Torie]

Putin tried to create a homegrown tech industry. His failure could be key to a Russian defeat, experts say

Kamil Galeev, a Russian historian, journalist and former Wilson Center fellow argued on Twitter and in a recent interview with economist Brad DeLong that a central failure of Russia’s sanction-proofing strategy was its effort at fostering domestic technological innovation.

Following Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and the subsequent imposition of Western sanctions, Russian officials worked to inoculate their economy from such embargoes, first and foremost by a policy of “import substitution” or the fostering of domestic industry to produce products that avoid supply chains in the U.S. and Europe.

Galeev argues that the authoritarian nature of the Putin regime, which he and western diplomats say operates similarly to an organized crime syndicate, means it is unable to foster industries that require technical sophistication. He notes that President Putin cheered the decline in the value of the ruble following Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, because it made Russian oil cheaper on the global market and boosted ruble-denominated revenues.

What Putin appeared to ignore, Galeev said, was the damage this did to Russia’s domestic manufacturing base, which relies on imports of Western technology to produce the machines that both enable resource extraction and the construction of military equipment.

Though the Putin regime has pressured local governments and manufacturing firms to develop domestic technologies as substitutes, this “import substitution is 95% PR,” Galeev wrote.

Galeev’s theory is that a “mafia state” like Russia is unable to foster complex domestic manufacturing industries because such states select officials not for technical competence, but for the ability to inspire fear in opponents and for their loyalty to the leader.

The thing that is hard to believe is that somehow Putin's plotting to make Russia economically autarkic to wage a war the planet hates, missed a major Achilles heel that Russia was not in fact self sufficient in high tech hardware, and that in relatively short order its ability to wage a high tech war would grind to a halt. If true, no matter how great Putin's talent as an evil genius, and he does have talent, it does demonstrate how tough it is to do it all alone in your basement as it were. You are bound to miss something.

Perhaps in my naivete, if Putin's reign of terror comes to a bad end for him, I think it quite possible that it will be a game changer for Russia. Never again. Rule by thug must never happen again The culture will finally internalize deep down that there just has to be checks and balances of power and transparency, even in the post industrial information age, to avoid descending into hell.

One other thing seems apparent to me. Putin's "press" has become so bad now, that the West will never be able to do any business with him and Russia while he controls it. It will be a total freeze out, and the West's push to cut itself off from Russia energy will continue to be a top priority to effect as rapidly as is reasonably possible despite the high cost.

I don't see how Putin can last in such an environment, but then it is a mistake to underestimate him, so I don't know.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Russia starting to get its military functioning together with several Ukrainian cities surrounded including the capital, Kiev.

The troops waiting on the Western side of the city have started to encircle the city to the South  after troops arrived on the Eastern front.

Kiev is likely to become encircled with no air support.

"The cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mariupol remain surrounded and are under heavy Russian bombardment.".

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/12/russia-ukraine-war-military-dispatch-march-12-2022

Russia will have 5 cities surrounded and cut off shortly.



You just get the feeling that more Russian casualties will only serve to bring out deadlier weapons.

Zelensky is talking a big game, but he has one major tactical problem - no one is coming to help him.

If Russians cut all supply lines and destroy Western arms shipments, they will be completely isolated.

[urutzizu]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-13/putin-s-war-on-ukraine-will-destroy-russia-too-l0p8651t

This Article makes for quite a read. Comes as Russian central bank extends trading shutdown on the Moscow Exchange for another week. On track to becoming a months long shutdown.



Overall it's pretty mindblowing the kind of measures that Russia has had to take against the sanctions. According to just what I can keep track of, Russia has:

- more than doubled its key interest rate to 20%
- imposed capital controls
- banned exports of more than 200 products to 48 countries. Including telecoms, medical, vehicle, agricultural, and electrical equipment.
- plans seizure of assets owned by western companies that want to leave
- effectively stolen foreign leased planes
- legalized patent theft from "unfriendly countries"
- effectively defaulted, by conditioning payments to foreign creditors on sanctions lifting

The effect this will have on basically any foreign investment (incl. Chinese!) in the future is obvious.

And this against Sanctions which, at least in terms of financial sanctions, have not even remotely reached the outer rim of what would be possible. With SWIFT the exclusions so far are quite mild (7 Russian banks and 3 Belarusian are delisted, but not all and not the key ones: Sberbank or Gazprombank). Unlike Iran sanctions, west has completely held off from secondary sanctions. So far the sanctions have been limited to sanctioning specific entities, but no international sanctions against entities that transact with these sanctioned entities. Of course full delisting from SWIFT and secondary sanctions would make EU paying for Russian energy in the short term much more difficult. But that is temporary, and Russia is playing a very risky game against time at this point.

[Person Man]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-13/putin-s-war-on-ukraine-will-destroy-russia-too-l0p8651t

This Article makes for quite a read. Comes as Russian central bank extends trading shutdown on the Moscow Exchange for another week. On track to becoming a months long shutdown.



Overall it's pretty mindblowing the kind of measures that Russia has had to take against the sanctions. According to just what I can keep track of, Russia has:

- more than doubled its key interest rate to 20%
- imposed capital controls
- banned exports of more than 200 products to 48 countries. Including telecoms, medical, vehicle, agricultural, and electrical equipment.
- plans seizure of assets owned by western companies that want to leave
- effectively stolen foreign leased planes
- legalized patent theft from "unfriendly countries"
- effectively defaulted, by conditioning payments to foreign creditors on sanctions lifting

The effect this will have on basically any foreign investment (incl. Chinese!) in the future is obvious.

And this against Sanctions which, at least in terms of financial sanctions, have not even remotely reached the outer rim of what would be possible. With SWIFT the exclusions so far are quite mild (7 Russian banks and 3 Belarusian are delisted, but not all and not the key ones: Sberbank or Gazprombank). Unlike Iran sanctions, west has completely held off from secondary sanctions. So far the sanctions have been limited to sanctioning specific entities, but no international sanctions against entities that transact with these sanctioned entities. Of course full delisting from SWIFT and secondary sanctions would make EU paying for Russian energy in the short term much more difficult. But that is temporary, and Russia is playing a very risky game against time at this point.

So basically Russia is the next North Korea at this rate.

[Torie]

OK, before hopping in a car to explore the universe, and after having listened to two guests on Fox News Sunday,  Senator Risch and deputy sec of state Sherman, both highly articulate, here are my thoughts, based on what they said and how my brain processed the info dump to form my own opinion:

1. No fly with planes is not the thing.

2. What is the thing, is giving Ukraine bigger missiles to create their own no fly zone than what they have. Risch gave a seminar on what missiles are not too big and not too small, but just right for Ukraine's needs as Goldilocks missiles.

3. That is particularly important for west Ukraine to protect its skies, the entry point for ordinance from NATO.

4. It is critical that Putin not be allowed to occupy all of Ukraine.  Why?

5. Because with there being some Ukraine real estate not occupied by Putin's special thug forces sent in after an area is occupied, Ukraine's status cannot be "normalized" over time. And that I think will hasten Putin's demise.

6. Putin's demise is the only way to end this now. Agreements involving him are worthless.
Keeping some of Ukraine free is a key part of making that happen sooner than otherwise. He cannot be allowed now to save face.

[compucomp]

Poland_invoking_NATO_article_5_meme.png

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502868126085570560?s=20&t=R7mVaon0k...

So it turned out to be the right decision for the US and other NATO countries to tread lightly in supplying Ukraine, lest they be hit in attacks like this and then be forced to join the war. The people on this forum who have been strongly advocating otherwise are now revealed to be warmongers. What a contrast between now and 20 years ago when these same people were likely to be strongly opposing the war in Iraq.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some unusually optimistic chatter about possible breakthroughs at the diplomatic end today. As always, only believe it when you see it, but worth noting all the same.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Poland_invoking_NATO_article_5_meme.png

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502868126085570560?s=20&t=R7mVaon0k...

So it turned out to be the right decision for the US and other NATO countries to tread lightly in supplying Ukraine, lest they be hit in attacks like this and then be forced to join the war. The people on this forum who have been strongly advocating otherwise are now revealed to be warmongers. What a contrast between now and 20 years ago when these same people were likely to be strongly opposing the war in Iraq.

Poland did not and almost certainly will not become involved in a war as a result of Russia striking Western Ukraine, and Russia must strike Western Ukraine if it is to take it. Attacks on Western Ukrainian military bases could only be avoided if Ukrainians won in the east or the country surrendered after the fall of the east. They become increasingly likely as Russia marches west and Ukraine runs out of air defences.

Providing only light/hand-held armaments to Ukraine did not prevent Russian strikes on Western Ukraine (quite predictably - military imports are not the only reason to strike that area). If anything, this indicates appeasement (avoiding provision of heavy weapons to discourage strikes on Western Ukraine) doesn’t work.

[lfromnj]

Russia starting to get its military functioning together with several Ukrainian cities surrounded including the capital, Kiev.

The troops waiting on the Western side of the city have started to encircle the city to the South  after troops arrived on the Eastern front.

Kiev is likely to become encircled with no air support.

"The cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mariupol remain surrounded and are under heavy Russian bombardment.".

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/12/russia-ukraine-war-military-dispatch-march-12-2022

Russia will have 5 cities surrounded and cut off shortly.



You just get the feeling that more Russian casualties will only serve to bring out deadlier weapons.

Zelensky is talking a big game, but he has one major tactical problem - no one is coming to help him.

If Russians cut all supply lines and destroy Western arms shipments, they will be completely isolated.

Uts pretty embarrassing  3 weeks in Russia hasn't even taken the 2 eastern separatist provinces.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1502907401896345600

[ugabug]

Doesn't appear he has a lot of confidence in the Russian attack on Kyiv.

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1502828806150754306

Also hopefully a truce is on the horizon.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1503005194090688514

[Middle-aged Europe]

Also hopefully a truce is on the horizon.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1503005194090688514

Let's hope this is true and Putin finally bowed to internal concerns that Russia can't possibly win the war before its economy defaults.

Maybe they'll get that neutrality pledge from Zelenskij, but nothing else really.

[brucejoel99]

Of course full delisting from SWIFT and secondary sanctions would make EU paying for Russian energy in the short term much more difficult. But that is temporary, and Russia is playing a very risky game against time at this point.

Keep in mind that Russia's gamble remains exactly what it was when they invaded 2-&-a-1/2 weeks ago: that they can secure victory in Ukraine before the West is willing to sacrifice its own economic security. Intentions aside, Putin knows that higher gas prices will kill Biden, & that Scholz's new government in Germany is skittish trying to project their own power on the world stage while still having to fill Merkel's shoes. Basically, Russia picked the right time, but the wrong(est?) strategy.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502888394699022340?s=20&t=b3Cf4mG3b...

[Person Man]

Of course full delisting from SWIFT and secondary sanctions would make EU paying for Russian energy in the short term much more difficult. But that is temporary, and Russia is playing a very risky game against time at this point.

Keep in mind that Russia's gamble remains exactly what it was when they invaded 2-&-a-1/2 weeks ago: that they can secure victory in Ukraine before the West is willing to sacrifice its own economic security. Intentions aside, Putin knows that higher gas prices will kill Biden, & that Scholz's new government in Germany is skittish trying to project their own power on the world stage while still having to fill Merkel's shoes. Basically, Russia picked the right time, but the wrong(est?) strategy.

Wouldn’t be the first time someone fumbled the ball in field goal range.