Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[It’s so Joever]

most accurate russian bombardment

Quick stats lesson for Atlas:

[Vosem]

In another indicator that the Russian government has not made clear what its actual goals are in this war, a Kremlin-aligned newspaper published an article speculating about what the goals of the conflict might be. I translated it, because it's a short and deranged piece which gives you an idea of the flavor of Russian state media right now. Mods, take down if inappropriate.

The specific newspaper this is from is Komsomolskaya Pravda, which has a very high circulation in Russia and is avowedly pro-Kremlin but is also sort of known for publishing conspiracy theories, or just weird speculation about events. It isn't likely that their source is actually someone within the Kremlin. However, the tone is generally consistent with pro-war news reports, and the confusion regarding ~~what the goal of the war is~~ is telling.

Title: Three possible scenarios of the future set-up of Ukraine after the Russian special operation

The scenarios are:

1. Optimistic plan: Ukraine remains at her former size, with the exceptions of the DNR and LNR in their administrative boundaries

At first glance this looks attractive: see, this way the country could preserve, albeit with a few losses, its international position, and if the newly elected Verkhovna Rada officially recognizes Crimea as belonging to Russia, the independence of the Donbass, and constitutionalizes its neutrality, the unaligned status of the state, and its non-nuclear status, and gives up war criminals to investigators from the Russian Federation and officializes the position of Russian as a government language, then it seems that the goals of the Russian special operation would be reached.

But that would not be the case! After some time, the nationalists, accustomed to forcing political decisions through protests, would come out of the underground, and then all of these decisions and guarantees would be worth only the cheap paper they are written on.

Scrappy Ukraine, gathered over several decades from territories forced from Russia or gifted by Russia, cannot remain united.

2. Realistic plan: divide Ukraine into several parts

Probably the most optimal solution. It can be realized by stages. In the first stage, analogously to the DNR and LNR, several formally independent republics could be organized in the mostly Russian-speaking oblasts of the historic Slobozhanschina and Novorossiya - [the oblasts of] Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhia, Kherson, Nikolayev, and Odessa. In the second stage, at a unifying congress of peoples' representatives, they, together with the DNR, LNR, and Pridnestrovia, could declare themselves a new government with a very close relationship to the Russian Federation -- Novorossiya.



Red: Novorossiya together with Pridnestrovia
Yellow: Ukraine (Little Russia)
Sky blue: Western Ukraine (Galicia and Volhynia)
Purple: Zakarpattia* (Hungarian territory)
Green: Bukovina* (Romanian territory)
*Protectorates

Along these lines, [Novorossiya] would have large economic and scientific potential, and be an economically viable state.

The remainder of the former Ukraine could be divided into two relatively small countries -- Ukraine itself (Little Russia) on the lands of the Hetmanate of the 17th century (today the oblasts of Kiev, Sumsk, Zhitomir, Kirovograd, Poltava, Chernigov, and Cherkassk), and a separate Western Ukraine (Galicia and Volhynia), to comprise today's oblasts of Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk, Volhynia, Ternopol, Khmelnytsk, and Rovensk.

In this case the fates of Zakarpattia and Bukovina (the Chernovitsk oblast) are unclear, but most likely, they would fall under the total or partial protection of Hungary and Romania.

<vosem>this section struck me as particular insane, where the author of the piece says he has no idea what might happen to specific parts of Ukraine and they might as well be ceded to EU states</vosem>

3. The most radical plan -- total annihilation of Ukraine as a state

This is possible only in the case that the collapse of Ukraine after the special operation takes on an irreversible and uncontrollable character. In that case, in Novorossiya and Little Russia there could emerge powerful centralizing tendencies which would lead these territories to simply become part of the Russian Federation as regular krais or oblasts. Bukovina or Zakarpattia could be annexed by Romania and Hungary, and the six westernmost oblasts -- by Poland, to whom they belonged before 1939.

In any case, the political set-up of the territories that today belong to Ukraine are a question that will be decided in the near future. The only clear thing is that the former country no longer exists.

This is followed by a response from a political scientist arguing that the Kremlin's goal is likely option 1, but noting that the West is likely to organize a government-in-exile (in London; he's very specific about this taking place in London for whatever reason) and that guerrilla warfare in western Ukraine is likely to continue even in the case of a total Russian military victory -- a rather surprising admission.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Anyway, my point in posting this is simply to underscore that the Kremlin has not communicated a coherent goal for this war and that some of the plans the Russian media are discussing -- including ceding parts of Ukraine to NATO countries -- are extremely fanciful and unrealistic.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In addition to the questions of "will BDS actions cripple the Russian war machine's ability to fight before Ukraine succumbs?", we must ask:

1. Is a 1-2% chance of hundreds of millions dead in nuclear war should NATO directly intervene via institution of a no-fly zone worth preventing an >80% chance of the Russian military murdering tens of thousands of innocent Ukrainians in cold blood?

2. If yes to #1, do we want to place faith in the Russian General Staff to refuse relaying any launch signals to their submarines should Putin throw a hissy fit and goes full I Am Legend?

I can admit I am too much of a coward to answer those questions. I can only hope our leaders are up to the task.

If this was just about now, it isn’t but I think it is.

I agree. If Putin gets away with what he is doing in Ukraine, what is stopping him from going into Moldova next? Then deciding he can go after the Baltic States? There is going to have to be a confrontation at some point and I think that MAD will stop the war from going nuclear, but even a 1% chance is a frightening proposition.

If Putin tries to invade the Baltic States, it's pretty clear that NATO will annihilate his invasion force within days given how incompetent his military is. This situation might actually make the Russians more likely to use nuclear weapons, so I say it's best to do everything we can, short of sending in troops, to make sure Russia gets stopped at Ukraine.  

The way things are going in Ukraine, would there be even Russian generals willing to carry out an order to invade the Baltics?

I mean, Putin is no Stalin (yet) that he could simply order generals to be shot. Among other things, he would actually need to lift a long-standing moratorium on the death penalty in Russia first.

And he's no Hitler either in the sense that Hitler had at least the leverage of successful military campaigns against Poland, Norway, and France behind him when he ordered the invasion of the Sovet Union. With Ukraine, Putin is more like the bumbling tinpot version of Hitler.

So, giving the order to invade a NATO country could very well be the start of the coup against him.

[Vosem]

My only prediction after reading that article is that the phrase "special operation" will become a common Orwellian-turn-of-phrase in many languages meaning "war", because the article is very insistent that what is going on is a "special operation", not a "war".

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

-Snip-

It seems like Putin might be trying to drag Orban into the war with the promise of Transcarpathia

[Storr]

Have a few memes:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/t5z5bw/wake_up_babe_new_thunder_run_just_dropped/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3




https://twitter.com/RangaTheShiz/status/1499479093783707649?s=20&t=CbzJy7fDj...

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Anyway, my point in posting this is simply to underscore that the Kremlin has not communicated a coherent goal for this war and that some of the plans the Russian media are discussing -- including ceding parts of Ukraine to NATO countries -- are extremely fanciful and unrealistic.

It's clear from all the reporting that only Putin and a handful of his closest advisors were told in advance that the invasion was happening. He runs Russia through a highly personalised kitchen cabinet with the ordinary government and state bureaucracy completely sidelined. So Russian elites at all levels including in state media are still paralysed with shock and are still completely in the dark. "Working towards the Führer" at best.

Personally speaking, everything I've seen and read (including Macron's report of his phone conversation with Putin today) indicates that Putin intends to annex all of Ukraine, and integrate it with Russia and Belarus into the Union State. Nothing else makes sense really. I find this deleted article from the RIA Novosti site more interesting than the one you posted:

https://twitter.com/sea_inside3/status/1498068338190082048?s=20&t=W51sae83Dj...

[Astatine]

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is under attack right now.

[2952-0-0]

I doubt the Chinese are happy about this. https://twitter.com/DrAlakbarov/status/1499423932910383105?s=20&t=CbzJy7fDjE...

You make the assumption that the CCP actually cares about its citizens. They'll just claim this airstrike was a Ukrainian provocation, and offer the victims' families some hush money.

[KaiserDave]

I have no idea how anyone could read Putin's speeches and think "this is a guy who wouldn't encroach upon Ukraine if NATO just didn't expand into Poland, the Baltics, Romania, and Bulgaria"

[Middle-aged Europe]

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is under attack right now.

Ninth-largest nuclear power plant in the world. The fun just never stops, meh.

[Storr]

Honestly, I could see a mutiny happening if Belarusian troops are ordered to go into Ukraine. No one wants to be another country's patsy, especially when they're only wanting you to join their war because they're suffering such massive losses. I'm sure senior officers already know what kind of casualties the Russians are incurring (even if only because injured Russian troops from the Kyiv area are being evacuated trough Belarus). If the Russian VDV is getting repeatedly decimated in battle, there's literally no chance of Belarusian airborne forces having any success, and I'm sure the officers know that.  

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1499490445843476482?s=20&t=oaB4ztqy...

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1499491711210434563?s=20&t=oaB4ztqy...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I have no idea how anyone could read Putin's speeches and think "this is a guy who wouldn't encroach upon Ukraine if NATO just didn't expand into Poland, the Baltics, Romania, and Bulgaria"

I think we need to separate the Putin of 2014 and prior, from the Putin of now. For all the genius he's displayed in the past, there's increasing evidence he's increasingly senile (and that's not a word I use lightly).

[Storr]

If true, yikes.
https://twitter.com/haltman/status/1499412858202988546?s=20&t=3RDP5m-UZi0iW1...

95% of Russian forces near the border with Ukraine at the start of the war have been deployed to Ukraine. I can see why Putin is moving forces in Siberia and the Far East westward.
https://twitter.com/Delejt/status/1499526808366108672?s=20&t=hdtDlqkOOuROLkl...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Pinky and the Brain!  I remember growing up watching this cartoon!   

Animaniacs has two new seasons on Hulu, very good and worth checking out. Each episode has a Pinky and the Brain segment in the middle.

[NOVA Green]

Don't believe it's been mentioned yet, but the economy of Belarus is starting to feel the economic pain as well:

"Belarus Sovereign Bonds Collapse Following U.S., EU Sanctions

The ex-Soviet nation has been hit with U.S. and EU sanctions as it continues to provide support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

The sovereign bonds backed by Belarus have collapsed over the past week due to the nation’s entanglement with Russia, which is using Belarusian territory as a staging ground for its invasion of Ukraine.

One of Belarus’s bonds, a $600 million dollar-denominated note due 2027, changed hands at 14 cents on the dollar on Thursday, according to Tradeweb, down from around 87 cents on the dollar before the invasion.

....

The White House on Wednesday said that it was imposing new sanctions on Belarus to prevent it from accessing technology and materials to further Moscow’s war efforts. The EU said this week that it was banning 70% of all imports from Belarus.

Viktor Szabo, an investment director focusing on emerging markets debt at Abrdn PLC, said that Belarus has become highly reliant on financing from Russia. “If you cut off the export channels, and Russia is weakened to a degree to which they can’t support Belarus anymore, Belarus’s credit situation will really become a problem.”

...."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/belarus-sovereign-bonds-collapsefollowing-u-s-eu-sanctions-11646336699?st=0s7omf46qzfjext&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Fellas, would Russia have invaded if Zelenskyy built this wall?

[NOVA Green]

As I posted a few days back, Putin is not nearly as good a chess player as he might imagine himself.

Even the Russian chessmasters are now rejecting him.




"The Russian Gambit That Divided the Chess World

No sport or game is more intertwined with Russia than chess, but grandmasters are questioning the relationship after the invasion of Ukraine

One of the earliest and most visible messages from any Russian protesting the country’s invasion of Ukraine came from a man who is intimately familiar with ancient principles of attack, defense, and territorial gains. He learned them on his way to becoming one of the top chess players on the planet.

“History has seen many Black Thursdays,” grandmaster Ian Nepomniachtchi, the highest-rated Russian in the game, tweeted on Feb. 24. “But today is blacker than the others.”

Nepomniachtchi struck a sensitive chord not just because of his nationality. It was also because of his profession. No game or sport in the world is more intertwined with Russia (and its predecessor the Soviet Union) than chess, which has produced more than half of all world champions since World War II and whose leaders have direct ties to the Kremlin. As of mid-2021, Russia had more than twice as many current grandmasters as any other country, according to Chess.com.

....

Chess’s governing body is based in Russia and run by a former Deputy Prime Minister named Arkady Dvorkovich. One of the game’s most celebrated legends, Garry Kasparov, is also one of Putin’s most vocal critics. Another former world champion from Russia, Anatoly Karpov, is so supportive of Putin that he was sanctioned by the European Union for voting in favor of the invasion as a member of the Duma.

The conflict has even split the modern generation of super-grandmasters. While Nepomniachtchi issued an anti-war message—later echoed by the likes of Russian tennis stars Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev—his countryman Sergey Karjakin was personally called out by chess’ governing body for his pro-war sentiment.

....

Last Sunday, chess governing body FIDE held an extraordinary meeting to address the quickly escalating situation. The outfit—run by Dvorkovich, who enjoyed Putin’s support when he became FIDE president in 2018—condemned the Russian attack and took measures that followed the International Olympic Committee, which recommended banning all Russian and Belarusian athletes from competition.

FIDE said no official competitions or events would be held in Belarus or Russia and stripped Russia of the upcoming Chess Olympiad. It is terminating partnerships with Belarusian and Russian state-backed companies. And it promised to bring the cases of Karjakin and Sergey Shipov, another Russian grandmaster, to the body’s Ethics and Disciplinary Commission for their public support of the conflict.

...."



https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-chess-fide-kasparov-11646350370?st=of7lbs2ipdo0cv3&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[Person Man]

Fellas, would Russia have invaded if Zelenskyy built this wall?

Even my dog can open doors. I guess I should be shipping my bitch off to Ukraine so that she can dominate the battlefield with her door opening abilities!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Standard & Poor's has downgraded Russia, again, to a CCC-. Outlook: negative. As far as S&P ratings go, that's the last category before sovereign default.

Correction: I think they could still downgrade them to C/CC, but currently there's no country in that category.

[Frodo]

Hungary will not veto EU sanctions on Russia - Orban

[Splash]

Russia is currently attacking the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant in the city of Enerhodar. There are reports of fires but it's unclear if the any of the reactors are at risk.

Also - because this is the world we live in now - you can watch a live stream of the attack on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYUT36YGOh8

[It’s so Joever]

Changes on the frontlines: Russia has opened up a new front entirely, this time into the Zhytomyr province. No towns captured yet, although it appears from the movements they may be trying to converge forces at Korosten.

Meanwhile the towns of Nova Basan and Peremoha have been reached by Russian forces in the North. The town of Mena has been captured by the Russians and it does look like a decent chunk of Northern Ukraine will fall soon. The town of Starobilsk in the East has fallen to the Russians.

[NOVA Green]

Good solid lengthy article from the WSJ today about how TB2 Drones and Anti-Tank weapons are increasing the military cost to Russia of the invasion.

There's a bunch of stuff in the article previously reported but here are a few nuggets:

"...

Though the drones have managed to elude Russian-made air defenses in conflicts in Syria, Libya and the Caucasus region, defense analysts had predicted the aircraft would be less effective against the full might of the Russian military. But the TB2s have managed to evade defenses due to the drones’ low radar profile, thwarting Russian defenses.

Russian air-defense systems can’t see the drones, said a person from the company making the TB2. “It shows the effect we expected from it,” the person said.

...

“The Russians are sticking to major highways to move quickly,” Mr. Kotlarski said. “That gives Ukrainian forces the advantage, allows them to set up ambush positions and hit convoys and formations.”

Many images have circulated on social media of tank turrets that have been violently separated from the tank chassis, the result of the detonation of ammunition stored inside the turret ring, evidence of grenade or missile impact, according to defense analysts.

“The tanks literally disassemble,” said John Dillard, a retired U.S. Army colonel who took part in the Javelin’s development. “Destruction of these targets can slow down the momentum of war for a more strategic effect. This is exactly what we designed it for 30 years ago.”  "





https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-leans-on-armed-drones-western-missiles-to-thwart-russian-invasion-11646343771?st=u626e20a6bnqapx&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[It’s so Joever]

These recent movements into the Zhytomyr province should kill the notion Russia is planning on just taking over the eastern half of the country. It should be obvious Putin will throw as many bodies to support the second Holodomor as possible.