Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Pink Panther]

https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1499479196778709019

But where will Jessie Ventura go now?!

[rc18]

Interesting, would fit with the reported rise in the use of airpower. Could be a risk.

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1499487368411332612?s=20&t=t6uI4nC72pH...

[Vosem]

I think he stops at Ukraine, but I'd be very doubtful he tries for a NATO state.

The ideological justification for this war ("Nazi apologists are trying to tear down the Russian language") in many ways works rather better for Estonia and Latvia than Ukraine, since the Russian language is actually in decline in those countries and you've had controversies about taking down Soviet-era memorials to the victory in WW2, which the Estonians/Latvians understand as memorials to Soviet rule.

They are both NATO member states, however. Non-NATO member states that Russia (or, Russian-backed puppet states) have territorial disputes with are Moldova and Georgia; the former has historically had a significant pro-Russian contingent in its politics, though much like pro-Russian politics in Ukraine it has been in decline since 2014. Georgia would be kind of an odd target, since outside the puppet states there are no Russians there and, of all the formerly Soviet states, it is probably the next pro-Western after the Baltics. Given the lack of a Russian ethnic minority, in fact, Georgia is probably the next most pro-Western after Lithuania.

[Silent Hunter]

Interesting, would fit with the reported rise in the use of airpower. Could be a risk.

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1499487368411332612?s=20&t=t6uI4nC72pH...

They possibly have more unguided bombs, but that increases the chance of a) being shot down as you need to get closer, b) missing entirely or c) hitting civilian targets.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/newsradionw/status/1499478970789609474

[AndyHogan14]

Interesting, would fit with the reported rise in the use of airpower. Could be a risk.

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1499487368411332612?s=20&t=t6uI4nC72pH...

They possibly have more unguided bombs, but that increases the chance of a) being shot down as you need to get closer, b) missing entirely or c) hitting civilian targets.

This lines up with some of what was said in the Twitter thread from Riho Terras a few days ago. He said that they have a limited amount of rockets and will have to use them sparingly going forward. He also felt that the Russians would be forced to (legitimately) negotiate a peace settlement after around 10 days due to lack of money/supplies. Let's hope he's right on that last point.

[It’s so Joever]

New changes on the frontline: The Russians have been defeated at Voznesensk. Meanwhile the encirclement of Mykolaiv is almost complete.

[Silent Hunter]

Interesting, would fit with the reported rise in the use of airpower. Could be a risk.

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1499487368411332612?s=20&t=t6uI4nC72pH...

They possibly have more unguided bombs, but that increases the chance of a) being shot down as you need to get closer, b) missing entirely or c) hitting civilian targets.

This lines up with some of what was said in the Twitter thread from Riho Terras a few days ago. He said that they have a limited amount of rockets and will have to use them sparingly going forward. He also felt that the Russians would be forced to (legitimately) negotiate a peace settlement after around 10 days due to lack of money/supplies. Let's hope he's right on that last point.

Israel in 1973 was able to win because of American resupply - not that at all arrived at once, but the fact they knew it was coming meant they could operate more freely. Russia doesn't have more weapons coming.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/mollyjongfast/status/1499445946509402112?s=21

Cross-posting for non-Americans and those with enough sense to stay out of USGD.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

most accurate russian bombardment

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/vansterhook/status/1499497036743430145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/vansterhook/status/1499497036743430145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

How pathetic.

[Storr]

If true, yikes.
https://twitter.com/haltman/status/1499412858202988546?s=20&t=3RDP5m-UZi0iW1...

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1499479196778709019

Yes . . . Ha Ha Ha . . . Yes!!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This war's унизительный for Russia. That's, "unizitel'nyy". The Russian word for humiliating.
I feel an outright Ukrainian victory is now quite a real possibility.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Night 5 tonight. Do we have estimates of damage and civilian casualties in Kyiv? It's not yet at Grozny levels, is it? How much of the city has been captured? They're still mostly in the suburbs, right?

[Storr]

I doubt the Chinese are happy about this. https://twitter.com/DrAlakbarov/status/1499423932910383105?s=20&t=CbzJy7fDjE...

[Хahar 🤔]

The last beating of black people in the Ukraine would have been by the Nazi SS Einsatzgruppen in 1941.

Unlikely there were any black people in Ukraine in 1941.

Ukraine had quite a prevalent African-Ukrainian population.



Pictured here (L-R) are: Dmytro Voronovskyi, Volodymyr Bolharyn, Slavko Lomachynska, Oleksandr Likhvald and Yuriy Lavrenyuk.

What are you talking about?

[Frodo]

Pinky and the Brain!  I remember growing up watching this cartoon!   

[Frodo]

If true, yikes.
https://twitter.com/haltman/status/1499412858202988546?s=20&t=3RDP5m-UZi0iW1...

Putin should be looking at the likelihood that he might well have to settle for half-a-loaf, at best -he clearly doesn't have the resources (or the competence) to take the whole country.  Which could mean that Ukraine might end up as the eastern European version of Cold War-era Germany, with a division of the country generally along the Dneiper River, with Russia taking the east, and an independent rump Ukraine in the west with Lviv serving as its capital.  Perhaps with Kiev divided as well, like Berlin.  

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces opened a new line of advance from Belarus south toward Zhytomyr Oblast, west of Kyiv, as Russian forces attempting to encircle Kyiv from the northwest were driven further west by determined Ukrainian resistance and counterattacks. Russian forces will struggle to complete an encirclement of Kyiv at all if they have to advance along ring roads as far from the city center as those they are now using.
• Russian forces on the east bank of the Dnipro River remain unable to secure the important town of Chernihiv or to break through Ukrainian defenses in the northeastern outskirts of Kyiv.
• Russian ground forces have remained relatively static near Kharkiv as Russian artillery, air, and missile bombardments wreak devastation in the city. The Ukrainian military indicates that a regiment-sized Russian formation will try to envelop or bypass Kharkiv in the coming days. Similar Russian attempts at such operations elsewhere in Ukraine render the success of such an undertaking at that scale unlikely.
• Russian forces are attempting once again to open a line of advance through northern Luhansk Oblast, possibly to assist efforts at Kharkiv or, as the Ukrainian General Staff assesses, to drive on Dnipro and Zaprozhya. The Russian forces currently reported as engaging in that drive are far too small to attack either city successfully and are probably insufficient to sustain a long drive on their own.
  
• Russian troops have surrounded Mariupol and are attacking it brutally to compel its capitulation or destroy it.
  
• The mayor of Kherson conditionally surrendered to the Russians, allowing Russian forces to renew their advance on Mykolayiv, which they have done. The Ukrainian military nevertheless reportedly defeated an attempted Russian air assault to take an airfield near Mykolayiv.
  

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-3

[Storr]

If true, yikes.
https://twitter.com/haltman/status/1499412858202988546?s=20&t=3RDP5m-UZi0iW1...

Putin should be looking at the likelihood that he might well have to settle for half-a-loaf, at best -he clearly doesn't have the resources (or the competence) to take the whole country.  Which could mean that Ukraine might end up as the eastern European version of Cold War-era Germany, with a division of the country generally along the Dneiper River, with Russia taking the east, and an independent rump Ukraine in the west with Lviv serving as its capital.  Perhaps with Kiev divided as well, like Berlin.  

Why settle when you can simply conscript every male under the age of 50 in a country of 144 million? If Putin does this I'll believe he's gone completely nuts.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1499445341585817604?s=20&t=k-UUowuf8...

[Storr]

We haven't heard much from the Chechens in the past few days, despite their robust social media presence at the beginning of the war. I'm sure they're doing fine.

https://twitter.com/AbraxasSpa/status/1499391637432287233?s=20&t=k-UUowuf8f0...

[Astatine]

Not confirmed yet, but deriving from what can be seen in this livestream from the Zaporizhzhia NPP, vehicles have arrived at the nuclear power station few minutes ago:

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Pinky and the Brain!  I remember growing up watching this cartoon!    

I wrote this up right now, for you.
Tune is the same as the Pinky and the Brain theme song.

They're Putin and Zelensky
Yes, Putin and Zelensky
One is a genius, the other's other insane
They're Slavic country leaders
Putin's done a few wars
It's Putin, it's Putin against the Zelensky
Zelensky, Zelensky, Zelensky
Before each night is done
Putin's plan will be unfurled
By the dawning of the sun
Putin wants the Ukraine
Before each night is done
Zelensky deals the pain
By the dawning of the sun
Putin wants the world
It's Putin against Zelensky
Yes, Putin against Zelensky
Putin's Ukraine campaign is easy to explain
He wants more land,
He wants the Eurasian earth
It's Putin, it's Putin against the Zelensky
The Servant of the People...narf