Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Crossing the Irpin attempt #2, electric boogaloo:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498105742510931971?s=20&t=s4VZHHO...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498107034457317376?s=20&t=s4VZHHO...

[sting in the rafters]

Putin trying to nuke America is absolutely non-believable until proven otherwise.
But if he's losing his mind, then it's quite likely parts of his brain will fancy it.
In any case though, we don't have any evidence whatsoever he's considering it and it should not be treated as plausible.

We were talking about a hypothetical in which NATO troops are engaged in direct combat with Russian forces.

I mean, there was Korea and Vietnam.

Stalin and Brezhnev (and Mao given the PRC presence in both of those wars) respectively might be more mentally stable than Putin is right now, as hard as it is to believe. Obviously it's always difficult to tell what is/isn't true regarding the modalities of the Kremlin but it sounds like even his inner circle is starting to become afraid of how unhinged he's been.

Given the stakes and the Kremlin's willingness to cross lines that most Western observers once regarded as unrealistic, this isn't a situation to assume that this is merely a case of madman theory gone awry.

You can’t let people bully you just because they are disabled.

A repelled invasion of Ukraine bolstered by NATO combat troops may just be the national embarrassment necessary for Putin to lose favor with the power base he's cultivated. I'd rather not find out how the bully responds when they possess enough atomic weapons to baptize the world in fire 10x over and would rather die than lose their position as the 3rd most powerful person on the planet.

[Flyersfan232]

Ret. Gen. Wesley Clark just told CNN that there'll inevitably be a point where Biden will reconsider America's "no military intervention" position, which makes sense: Russia has generally been using significantly less artillery than would typically accompany their operations, but heavy artillery barrages will result in thousands upon thousands of civilian casualties, so if Putin becomes desperate enough & gets to that point, then the U.S. will likely be forced to start weighing intervention.

Biden need to be 25th if he even thinks about it

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498098770273312769

Belarus Jets???

Is this the upcoming "5 AM Airdrop" ?

If so am assuming they are providing close tactical support against Ukrainian Air Defense systems.

The thing is I'm not sure which 05:00. Belarus uses Moscow time (05:00 in 15 minutes) while Ukraine uses EET (05:00 in 1 hour and 15 minutes). I'd assume Belarus would plan using the time zone the country itself uses. It's the final countdown either way, I suppose.

[It’s so Joever]

I sincerely hope his inside circle decides it’s time to have a Swan Lake rerun on the tv.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Putin trying to nuke America is absolutely non-believable until proven otherwise.
But if he's losing his mind, then it's quite likely parts of his brain will fancy it.
In any case though, we don't have any evidence whatsoever he's considering it and it should not be treated as plausible.

We were talking about a hypothetical in which NATO troops are engaged in direct combat with Russian forces.

I mean, there was Korea and Vietnam.

Stalin and Brezhnev (and Mao given the PRC presence in both of those wars) respectively might be more mentally stable than Putin is right now, as hard as it is to believe. Obviously it's always difficult to tell what is/isn't true regarding the modalities of the Kremlin but it sounds like even his inner circle is starting to become afraid of how unhinged he's been.

Given the stakes and the Kremlin's willingness to cross lines that most Western observers once regarded as unrealistic, this isn't a situation to assume that this is merely a case of madman theory gone awry.

You can’t let people bully you just because they are disabled.

A repelled invasion of Ukraine bolstered by NATO combat troops may just be the national embarrassment necessary for Putin to lose favor with the power base he's cultivated. I'd rather not find out how the bully responds when they possess enough atomic weapons to baptize the world in fire 10x over and would rather die than lose their position as the 3rd most powerful person on the planet.

I could see a scenario where Putin is basically made into a figurehead until his term ends. He wouldn't be forced to resign because 1) he still would be protected as a figurehead and 2) the people taking power from him would find it simplest to just keep him as figurehead rather than pick one of their own as new leader of Russia.

[Tekken_Guy]

Relax guys. Nobody is going to nuclear war. Even if Putin himself is crazy enough to do so, he's never going to be able to get past his advisors, the military, the oligarchs, or anyone else who doesn't want to Russia to be nuked right back.

The key to ending this nightmare might be to prime Putin without crossing the line with his  inner circle.

Or hopefully it's that the nuclear option may be a bridge too far for even the inner circle to tolerate and they turn on him. I don't think any of them want Russia to be blown up either.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498098770273312769

Belarus Jets???

Is this the upcoming "5 AM Airdrop" ?

If so am assuming they are providing close tactical support against Ukrainian Air Defense systems.

The thing is I'm not sure which 05:00. Belarus uses Moscow time (05:00 in 15 minutes) while Ukraine uses EET (05:00 in 1 hour and 15 minutes). I'd assume Belarus would plan using the time zone the country itself uses. It's the final countdown either way, I suppose.

I have also heard that it could be 5:00 tomorrow to allow the "peace talks" to take place. When they inevitably fail, then that is Lukashenko's casus belli. But who knows? I am inclined to think it's 5:00 today (2/28), Moscow time.

[Storr]

If true, Belarusian forces has already been compromised before they've even done anything, by the founder of a random NGO no less:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498070435510067204?s=20&t=Bjbs6jzZB...

LMAO It's looking more and more likely this was accurate:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498106694999711746?s=20&t=eqqUkd...

I'm guessing someone, probably an officer, didn't like the idea of Belarus getting involved and leaked it to that NGO.

[jojoju1998]

I'm not an expert at military stuff, but it seems as if Russia/Belarus thinks this is the 1940s all over again, and so Putin was planning this massive 1940s style invasion, which hasn't gone well...

[Flyersfan232]

What is Mikhail Gorbachev saying about all of this

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm not an expert at military stuff, but it seems as if Russia/Belarus thinks this is the 1940s all over again, and so Putin was planning this massive 1940s style invasion, which hasn't gone well...

There's an argument that the exact opposite is true. Russia did not plan for a war because they haven't fought one in decades.

Good thread:

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I'm not an expert at military stuff, but it seems as if Russia/Belarus thinks this is the 1940s all over again, and so Putin was planning this massive 1940s style invasion, which hasn't gone well...

It seems quite the opposite. The Russian problem seems to be they thought the Ukraine would roll over with a lightening advance of light forces, were holding most of their forces back to act as occupation troops, and don’t have the logistics in place to actually deploy the mass assault breaking Kyiv will take.

[Bismarck]

With all of this western weaponry coming in, could Ukraine start hitting more military targets inside Russia/Belarus?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/MarketRebels/status/1498101825370791943
Thoughts and prayers!

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/MarketRebels/status/1498101825370791943
Thoughts and prayers!

Specifically prayers it drops even more

[Storr]

With all of this western weaponry coming in, could Ukraine start hitting more military targets inside Russia/Belarus?

Once Belarus is "officially" in the war, yes. Belarus has major cities are close to the border (Brest, Pinsk, Mazyr, and Gomel are all within 30 miles of the border). With Russia it's more difficult because the Russians have taken much of the territory in Ukraine along the border with Russia, and there aren't many major cities close to the Ukrainian border except Belgorod. Though I don't know the range of the Turkish drones and Ukrainian missiles, I'm certain they can reach plenty of Belarusian infrastructure and military targets.

[Virginiá]

Relax guys. Nobody is going to nuclear war. Even if Putin himself is crazy enough to do so, he's never going to be able to get past his advisors, the military, the oligarchs, or anyone else who doesn't want to Russia to be nuked right back.

Would that even happen if Russia deployed a nuclear weapon in Ukraine? I'm not convinced it would. It would significantly escalate the international response, but everyone else with nukes is going to be real hesitant to engage a belligerent hostile power with the largest active nuclear weapon stockpile on the planet, knowing what would happen if they did.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[lfromnj]

Relax guys. Nobody is going to nuclear war. Even if Putin himself is crazy enough to do so, he's never going to be able to get past his advisors, the military, the oligarchs, or anyone else who doesn't want to Russia to be nuked right back.

Would that even happen if Russia deployed a nuclear weapon in Ukraine? I'm not convinced it would. It would significantly escalate the international response, but everyone else with nukes is going to be real hesitant to engage a belligerent hostile power with the most active nuclear weapon stockpile on the planet, knowing what would happen if they did.

Relevent

[Storr]

Russian media lying?? I'm shocked!

https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1498118020694220804?s=20&t=o4JRiPvRmGlQE...

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498098770273312769

Belarus Jets???

Is this the upcoming "5 AM Airdrop" ?

If so am assuming they are providing close tactical support against Ukrainian Air Defense systems.

The thing is I'm not sure which 05:00. Belarus uses Moscow time (05:00 in 15 minutes) while Ukraine uses EET (05:00 in 1 hour and 15 minutes). I'd assume Belarus would plan using the time zone the country itself uses. It's the final countdown either way, I suppose.

Although Belarus has a small and weak army, another invader is the last thing Ukraine needs.

[NOVA Green]

161 pages, 30 of them by NOVA Green.

But why do you have me wearing a woman's wedding ring?

I provided the ORIGINAL Pornhub quote and then you waltz along behind me today and claiming like it is "new news"   

Just for you will quote your earlier post

Okay, perhaps a bit petty and forgot to mention it when I first saw the article yesterday, but Pornhub has now blocked their content from Russian Users....

https://groundreport.in/pornhub-ban-russia-sanctions-no-one-is-talking-about/

Now--- Pornhub and Russia have exchanged beef before, going way back to 2016 and 2017

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/pornhub-youporn-russia-blocked-premium-vladimir-putin-meet-people-in-real-life-a7308391.html

https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2017/07/12/russians-told-to-log-in-to-pornhub-using-verified-social-media-accounts/

https://www.vox.com/2017/6/2/15726082/russia-putin-navalny-pornhub

Meanwhile, you stole my Pornhub and made it your own...

Sanctions just got real for the Russians.

Haven’t seen these yet here:

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497288086622978048?s=21

Nope, beat you both…heh

WMS is owed a virtual beer, since unfortunately cannot provide in person for the first Atlas Poster to talk about the Pornhub boycott of Russia.

Unless another Atlas Poster can come forth with an earlier post on this thread, I say he is the champion!

[compucomp]

At this point it's abundantly clear that Russia should have shut off its internet for the duration of the war and that if they had the capacity to knock out Ukraine's internet, they should have done so. How the hell is an army supposed to keep operational security and secrecy if anybody with a smartphone can record troop and vehicle movements and upload it to Twitter/Telegram/etc immediately?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

At this point it's abundantly clear that Russia should have shut off its internet for the duration of the war and that if they had the capacity to knock out Ukraine's internet, they should have done so. How the hell is an army supposed to keep operational security and secrecy if anybody with a smartphone can record troop and vehicle movements and upload it to Twitter/Telegram/etc immediately?

CCP shill very sad that mother Russia being destroyed by Ukraine.