Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Aurelius]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/world/europe/germany-military-budget-russia-ukraine.html

Here's the article about German military budget increase. I remain skeptical of the 2% target by these liars piggybacking off us.I think 1.75% is actually what should be spent ideally but a target is a target and these cowards have hid behind the US for 15 years

OK, easy now. The US military budget would not be one cent smaller if every NATO member had spent 2% of GDP. Infact, the extremely large US military budget really has no relation to NATO at all.

If Germany properly funded their military, for example, we wouldn't need a bajillion troops stationed in Germany because they'd be able to provide those troops and the equipment themselves.

This is no longer the Marshall Plan era where the US was the only major industrialized country not devastated by WWII. It is long past time for our allies to step up and contribute their fair share, and I'm glad some of them are finally realizing that.

[lfromnj]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/world/europe/germany-military-budget-russia-ukraine.html

Here's the article about German military budget increase. I remain skeptical of the 2% target by these liars piggybacking off us.I think 1.75% is actually what should be spent ideally but a target is a target and these cowards have hid behind the US for 15 years

OK, easy now. The US military budget would not be one cent smaller if every NATO member had spent 2% of GDP. Infact, the extremely large US military budget really has no relation to NATO at all.

If Germany properly funded their military, for example, we wouldn't need a bajillion troops stationed in Germany because they'd be able to provide those troops and the equipment themselves.

This is no longer the Marshall Plan era where the US was the only major industrialized country not devastated by WWII. It is long past time for our allies to step up and contribute their fair share, and I'm glad some of them are finally realizing that.

I mean the US still keeps troops in Germany because it allows us to project power worldwide. Doesn't mean they shouldn't have been putting a bit more effort rather than doing training with Broomsticks.

[afleitch]

lol okay so even Die Linke applauded Scholz's announcement. DIE LINKE. They also admitted openly in their parliamentary speech that they never expected Russia to do this, and how they were wrong on Russia.

I’ve heard similar “reflections” among the American left, and tbh it is stunning to me. It really reveals how naive they have been.

Taibbi issued an apology of sorts to his subscribers and has went silent on Twitter. Ryan Grim has went into radio silence too. They were so spectacularly wrong, it's not so much that they have seen their brand trashed, but they have nothing to say about it, because they never knew anything about it in the first place.

Opinionists of a certain age and calibre who cut their teeth on Afghanistan and Iraq and give us some auto generated spiel about 'Snowden' (also silent) this, 'Assange' that, CIA etc have left a splendid silence.

Except Glenn Griftwald.

[It’s so Joever]

Historic speech by Olaf Scholz. Germany completely changes its defense policy. It sounded like he would invest 100 billion EURO right here and now in military equipment and from now on spend at least 2% of GDP yearly on defense. This will furthermore have a ripple effect in that other NATO countries - like my own - have been hiding behind Germany in not spending the 2%. That will almost certainly change now.

This could actually be a real turning point. It could also signal a new world order where democratic Europe rises from the pathetic depence on the United States.

lol okay so even Die Linke applauded Scholz's announcement. DIE LINKE. They also admitted openly in their parliamentary speech that they never expected Russia to do this, and how they were wrong on Russia. Putin has so catastrophically f**ked up.

Also, just to add some more details to this announcement:

- the annual defense budget will be increased to 2% of GDP, or approximately an additional 22 billion EUR per year, by 2024
- 100 billion EUR to be invested in R&D, equipment, ammunition, upgrades etc. mostly to ensure that the effect of the budget does no longer translate to obsolete gear.
- to put this into perspective, the Bundeswehr in 2021 budgeted 10 billion on equipment procurement and R&D, with a total budget of 47 billion
- NordStream 2 is dead
- Germany will directly arm Ukraine
- European military production will be invested in, in order to become more independent. Heavy cooperation with France is expected
- investing in LNG shipping terminals to diversify away from Russian gas

That would be the equivalent of Qanon denouncing Trump, oh my.

[Alcibiades]

A very interesting read from the UK’s leading war studies academic, Lawrence Freedman, on the huge difficulties the Russians are facing:

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-fight-for-ukraine

In my previous post I explained why I thought that this war had begun badly for Russia and was likely to end badly. Even if the military campaign progressed with greater efficiency Putin was still likely to lose because he was following a delusional strategy – reflecting his belief that Ukraine was a non-state with no national identity, that Kyiv could be taken quickly, so that President Zelensky could be deposed, and that a compliant puppet regime could be installed in his stead. Nothing has yet happened to make me change that view.

I also warned that the coming days would be rougher and tougher, and so sadly it is proving, although if anything I understated the faltering character of the first waves of the Russian offensive. A high human and strategic price is now being paid by Moscow for some haphazard and arrogant planning, and for failing to think through the worst case as well as the best. 

It might be thought that a few days of limited progress will soon become irrelevant once the raw power of the Russian armed forces are brought to bear, but this is wrong. The first days set the conditions for those to come. They affect the transition from the first stage of conventional warfare to the next stage of urban warfare and potentially the stage after that of resistance to an unwelcome occupation.

[HillGoose]

Putin ordering his nuclear forces to high alert really seems to highlight how badly this is going for Russia. Now he's just throwing a tantrum and waving around his big weapons because he's losing lol.

I'm wondering what markets are going to do at the open. Imagine the closest decimal to zero you can think of for the Ruble, I guess.

[Logical]

The Ukrainian position in the Southern Theater is critical. I don't see Mariupol standing for long. Ukrainian forces in the Donbass must make a choice, retreat or be cut off.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497965228868481033?t=f-PoeIxRdFzHE-cd4lbM...

[The Free North]

A very interesting read from the UK’s leading war studies academic, Lawrence Freedman, on the huge difficulties the Russians are facing:

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-fight-for-ukraine

In my previous post I explained why I thought that this war had begun badly for Russia and was likely to end badly. Even if the military campaign progressed with greater efficiency Putin was still likely to lose because he was following a delusional strategy – reflecting his belief that Ukraine was a non-state with no national identity, that Kyiv could be taken quickly, so that President Zelensky could be deposed, and that a compliant puppet regime could be installed in his stead. Nothing has yet happened to make me change that view.

I also warned that the coming days would be rougher and tougher, and so sadly it is proving, although if anything I understated the faltering character of the first waves of the Russian offensive. A high human and strategic price is now being paid by Moscow for some haphazard and arrogant planning, and for failing to think through the worst case as well as the best.  

It might be thought that a few days of limited progress will soon become irrelevant once the raw power of the Russian armed forces are brought to bear, but this is wrong. The first days set the conditions for those to come. They affect the transition from the first stage of conventional warfare to the next stage of urban warfare and potentially the stage after that of resistance to an unwelcome occupation.

The arrogance of landing a handful of paratroopers in Kiev's airport and thinking that would be enough to overthrow the city is astounding.

Thats a computer game strategy.

[Person Man]

The Ukrainian position in the Southern Theater is critical. I don't see Mariupol standing for long. Ukrainian forces in the Donbass must make a choice, retreat or be cut off.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497965228868481033?t=f-PoeIxRdFzHE-cd4lbM...

It’s still amazing how they are still even fighting there.

[NOVA Green]

In contrast to the based commies in Japan, our breed of commies are f*****g morons.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CpusaDepartment/status/1497944574961938432

Well, to be fair, one is way more serious than the other. The Japan Communists are, well, social democrats at this point, and they are a serious party with a large membership (it claims 270000 members), has 10 representatives and 13 senators. It got 7% of the vote last election and has non-stop representation in the Diet since democracy came back after WWII.

The CPUSA, well. It claims less than 10000 members and did not run candidates for election since 1984 and never elected anybody anywhere.

Also something like 2/3 of the CPUSA chapters split off and formed the "Committees of Correspondence" in 1991.

I actually attended some of their local Oregon meetings before, during, and after the split, and likely still have some of their old newsletters floating around in one of my storage bins of old political materials.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Committees_of_Correspondence_for_Democracy_and_Socialism

[NOVA Green]

Kharkiv Update: New York Times including some video footage dated 2/27/22:

This appears to perhaps reflect a slightly different interpretation than some of the material posted by others upthread.

" Footage shows fighting drawing closer to the center of Ukraine’s second-largest city.

Russian troops have escalated their assault on Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, according to videos and photographs analyzed by The New York Times.

The imagery from Sunday shows clashes between Russian and Ukrainian troops occurring closer to the city center than was previously seen, suggesting a deeper Russian incursion into Kharkiv, in eastern Ukraine.

In several locations, it appears that these advances may have stalled. Videos show some Russian vehicles burning, and others being ransacked by Ukrainian troops."







https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/26/world/ukraine-russia-war

[FT-02 Senator A.F.E. 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

A very interesting read from the UK’s leading war studies academic, Lawrence Freedman, on the huge difficulties the Russians are facing:

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-fight-for-ukraine

In my previous post I explained why I thought that this war had begun badly for Russia and was likely to end badly. Even if the military campaign progressed with greater efficiency Putin was still likely to lose because he was following a delusional strategy – reflecting his belief that Ukraine was a non-state with no national identity, that Kyiv could be taken quickly, so that President Zelensky could be deposed, and that a compliant puppet regime could be installed in his stead. Nothing has yet happened to make me change that view.

I also warned that the coming days would be rougher and tougher, and so sadly it is proving, although if anything I understated the faltering character of the first waves of the Russian offensive. A high human and strategic price is now being paid by Moscow for some haphazard and arrogant planning, and for failing to think through the worst case as well as the best. 

It might be thought that a few days of limited progress will soon become irrelevant once the raw power of the Russian armed forces are brought to bear, but this is wrong. The first days set the conditions for those to come. They affect the transition from the first stage of conventional warfare to the next stage of urban warfare and potentially the stage after that of resistance to an unwelcome occupation.

The arrogance of landing a handful of paratroopers in Kiev's airport and thinking that would be enough to overthrow the city was astounding.

Thats a computer game strategy.

Can confirm. Would've done the same.

t. chronic swedish map painting gamer

[NOVA Green]

Missile hit a radioactive waste storage facility in Kiev per NYT report from 18 minutes ago:

"A missile hit the site of a radioactive waste disposal facility in Ukraine’s besieged capital Kyiv overnight but there were no reports of damage or any indication of radioactive release, the head of the United Nations nuclear monitor, Rafael M. Grossi, said Sunday. Mr. Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Ukrainian officials had informed him of the missile strike and their assessment, which was continuing. The strike came a day after Ukrainian officials reported damage at an electrical transformer at a similar nuclear waste disposal facility near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city. Both Kyiv and Kharkiv have been under assault since Russia’s invasion forces entered the country on Thursday. “These two incidents highlight the very real risk that facilities with radioactive material will suffer damage during the conflict, with potentially severe consequences for human health and the environment,” Mr. Grossi said."



https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/27/world/russia-ukraine-war

[FT-02 Senator A.F.E. 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

The absolute state of the Russians

https://mobile.twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1497984013809639425

[MATTROSE94]

Putin ordering his nuclear forces to high alert really seems to highlight how badly this is going for Russia. Now he's just throwing a tantrum and waving around his big weapons because he's losing lol.

I'm wondering what markets are going to do at the open. Imagine the closest decimal to zero you can think of for the Ruble, I guess.

If Putin ends up using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, then the US and NATO must wipe Russia off the face of the earth.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I don't want to take away from Ukraine's situation, but when China fully attempts to take over Hong Kong, how likely is it we will see a similar reaction from global leaders?

[NOVA Green]

Another part of my morning New York Times news roundup:

"Russia has begun adopting siege tactics, Pentagon says.

WASHINGTON — Russian forces have begun adopting siege tactics around the historic city of Chernihiv, northeast of Kyiv, the Pentagon said Sunday morning, in an ominous forecast of a medieval battlefield strategy that would sharply raise the number of civilian casualties.

While Russia’s advance on Ukrainian cities continued to be slowed by ferocious resistance from Ukrainian troops, as well as by Russia’s own logistical and sustainment challenges, the adoption of what a senior Defense Department official characterized as a “siege mentality” around Chernihiv opens a new shift in the war.

....

Russia still has not managed to achieve air superiority over Ukraine, the Pentagon said. The Defense Department official said that Ukraine had retained an ability to mount an air defense, and was still putting war planes into the air.

...."




https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/27/world/russia-ukraine-war

[Horus]

I don't want to take away from Ukraine's situation, but when China fully attempts to take over Hong Kong, how likely is it we will see a similar reaction from global leaders?

Slim to none.

[Person Man]

A very interesting read from the UK’s leading war studies academic, Lawrence Freedman, on the huge difficulties the Russians are facing:

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-fight-for-ukraine

In my previous post I explained why I thought that this war had begun badly for Russia and was likely to end badly. Even if the military campaign progressed with greater efficiency Putin was still likely to lose because he was following a delusional strategy – reflecting his belief that Ukraine was a non-state with no national identity, that Kyiv could be taken quickly, so that President Zelensky could be deposed, and that a compliant puppet regime could be installed in his stead. Nothing has yet happened to make me change that view.

I also warned that the coming days would be rougher and tougher, and so sadly it is proving, although if anything I understated the faltering character of the first waves of the Russian offensive. A high human and strategic price is now being paid by Moscow for some haphazard and arrogant planning, and for failing to think through the worst case as well as the best. 

It might be thought that a few days of limited progress will soon become irrelevant once the raw power of the Russian armed forces are brought to bear, but this is wrong. The first days set the conditions for those to come. They affect the transition from the first stage of conventional warfare to the next stage of urban warfare and potentially the stage after that of resistance to an unwelcome occupation.

The arrogance of landing a handful of paratroopers in Kiev's airport and thinking that would be enough to overthrow the city was astounding.

Thats a computer game strategy.

Can confirm. Would've done the same.

t. chronic swedish map painting gamer

I thought it was called “rushing”.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don't want to take away from Ukraine's situation, but when China fully attempts to take over Hong Kong, how likely is it we will see a similar reaction from global leaders?

They already took over Hong Kong . Hong Kong was their version of Crimea not a full scale Ukraine invasion. Their version of that would be if they invaded Taiwan

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I don't want to take away from Ukraine's situation, but when China fully attempts to take over Hong Kong, how likely is it we will see a similar reaction from global leaders?

The big reason I'm not certain we'd see this level of firestorm from the international community (though there would obviously still be a major reaction) is because Hong Kong is still officially (on paper -- not expressing my opinion one way or the other, my Hong Kongese peeps) an administrative region of China.  

Ukraine, on the other hand, has been fully recognized as a sovereign nation by most of the world (with one notable exception...).  

I'd say that a full-scale invasion and takeover of Taiwan would be more comparable.  

[NOVA Green]

British Petroleum is pulling out of their partial investment in a Russian oil company per NYT 15 minutes back:

"BP to ‘exit’ its 20 percent stake in the Russian oil company Rosneft.

BP said on Sunday that it would “exit” its nearly 20 percent stake in Rosneft, the Russian state-controlled oil company. The London-based oil giant also said that both its chief executive, Bernard Looney, and his predecessor, Bob Dudley, would resign their seats on the Rosneft board.

BP has worked in Russia for over 30 years, but the invasion of Ukraine led the company to conclude that its involvement with Rosneft, “simply cannot continue,” BP’s chairman, Helge Lund, said in a statement on Sunday."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/27/world/russia-ukraine-war

[FT-02 Senator A.F.E. 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

A very interesting read from the UK’s leading war studies academic, Lawrence Freedman, on the huge difficulties the Russians are facing:

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-fight-for-ukraine

In my previous post I explained why I thought that this war had begun badly for Russia and was likely to end badly. Even if the military campaign progressed with greater efficiency Putin was still likely to lose because he was following a delusional strategy – reflecting his belief that Ukraine was a non-state with no national identity, that Kyiv could be taken quickly, so that President Zelensky could be deposed, and that a compliant puppet regime could be installed in his stead. Nothing has yet happened to make me change that view.

I also warned that the coming days would be rougher and tougher, and so sadly it is proving, although if anything I understated the faltering character of the first waves of the Russian offensive. A high human and strategic price is now being paid by Moscow for some haphazard and arrogant planning, and for failing to think through the worst case as well as the best. 

It might be thought that a few days of limited progress will soon become irrelevant once the raw power of the Russian armed forces are brought to bear, but this is wrong. The first days set the conditions for those to come. They affect the transition from the first stage of conventional warfare to the next stage of urban warfare and potentially the stage after that of resistance to an unwelcome occupation.

The arrogance of landing a handful of paratroopers in Kiev's airport and thinking that would be enough to overthrow the city was astounding.

Thats a computer game strategy.

Can confirm. Would've done the same.

t. chronic swedish map painting gamer

I thought it was called “rushing”.

They aren't mutually exclusive

[NOVA Green]

Washington Post has a few updates on the military front from the Pentagon's perspective, including a few titbits not widely reported elsewhere:

"Russia adopting ‘siege tactics’ against a city north of Kyiv, as forces press into Ukraine on multiple fronts

By Karoun Demirjian12:03 p.m.

Russian forces have started to use “siege tactics” against a city near Ukraine’s border and just to the north of Kyiv, according to the Pentagon, raising the specter of more civilian casualties as the fighting worsens.

....

Russian troops entered Kharkiv overnight, and while they remain about 30 kilometers (19 miles) to the north of downtown Kyiv, reconnaissance elements have been operating in the capital city, the senior defense official said. Some members of those reconnaissance units have been wearing Ukrainian uniforms and have been outed by locals, the official added. It remained the Pentagon’s assessment on Sunday morning that the Russian military still has not seized control of any Ukrainian cities.

The Pentagon believes Russian forces are still about 50 kilometers (31 miles) outside of central Mariupol, an important port city along Ukraine’s southeastern coast. “Mariupol will be defended,” said the senior defense official, who credited Ukraine with mounting a “creative resistance” that was both “heroic” and “inspiring.” But the official cautioned that Russia still has significant “operational advantages” over Ukraine and would probably learn from errors that had slowed Russian forces’ advance in the days ahead.

...

The Pentagon has also determined that some, though not the majority, of the more than 320 missile launches Russia has undertaken against Ukraine have suffered failures.

...."




https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-news/#link-IHZ4JKV5NBADFK25EPASOZSD6Y

[Person Man]

Putin ordering his nuclear forces to high alert really seems to highlight how badly this is going for Russia. Now he's just throwing a tantrum and waving around his big weapons because he's losing lol.

I'm wondering what markets are going to do at the open. Imagine the closest decimal to zero you can think of for the Ruble, I guess.

If Putin ends up using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, then the US and NATO must wipe Russia off the face of the earth.

Yeah. At that point, Russian Federation will be dissolved, in all of the still habitable land will become international territory to eventually be open for settlement to those who can buy land for $20000 an acre.