Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yup, mil.ru and eng.mil.ru still appear to be offline. After several attempts I was able to temporarily reach kremlin.ru and en.kremlin.ru, but it takes a while and then the website looks pretty shot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The main difference between the German Volkssturm in 1945 and Ukrainian civilians today is certainly a significantly different level in morale. My own grandfather deserted before he could be drafted into the Volkssturm.

An infinitely less noisome and likely much more relevant analogy from German history would be the Landwehr regiments of 1813-15. They might not have been as effective as regulars, but they were still useful, as motivation and morale were high enough to partially overcome their deficiencies in training and equipment.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/NatSecGeek/status/1497587401501327361
https://twitter.com/YourAnonNews/status/1497298554381119491
So glad to see Anonymous getting its hands dirty again.

Anonymous are effectively the 21st Century version of Antifa, except mainly focusing on cyber actions vs street fighting.

"You watch the neighborhood, we'll watch the skies."

--Richard "Beebo" Russell

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One does wonder if there's a point where the cyberhacking front of this war actually is a net negative for Russia. It certainly isn't the huge win that the Russians were probably hoping for.

[NOVA Green]

Okay, perhaps a bit petty and forgot to mention it when I first saw the article yesterday, but Pornhub has now blocked their content from Russian Users....

https://groundreport.in/pornhub-ban-russia-sanctions-no-one-is-talking-about/

Now--- Pornhub and Russia have exchanged beef before, going way back to 2016 and 2017

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/pornhub-youporn-russia-blocked-premium-vladimir-putin-meet-people-in-real-life-a7308391.html

https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2017/07/12/russians-told-to-log-in-to-pornhub-using-verified-social-media-accounts/

https://www.vox.com/2017/6/2/15726082/russia-putin-navalny-pornhub

[Middle-aged Europe]

Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's continued presence on the boards of Nord Stream, Rosneft, and Gazprom remains an embarrassment for the SPD. Today, both SPD co-chairs (Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil) publicly called upon Schröder to resign his seats. So far no reaction.

https://twitter.com/EskenSaskia/status/1497593481392500737

I have also something of a personal anecdote to share related to that. The SPD's national headquarters in Berlin are the location of many art exhibitions and similar events. Today I went to see some there. A couple of meters before me in the waiting line there was someone who attempted to enter the building with a protest sign demanding Schröder's expulsion from the party. He wasn't let in and after some discussion with the security guard he left again.

[FT-02 Senator A.F.E. 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/NatSecGeek/status/1497587401501327361
https://twitter.com/YourAnonNews/status/1497298554381119491
So glad to see Anonymous getting its hands dirty again.

Anonymous are effectively the 21st Century version of Antifa, except mainly focusing on cyber actions vs street fighting.

"You watch the neighborhood, we'll watch the skies."

Why did I immediately think of that one meme with Erdogan and Mugabe?

[GeneralMacArthur]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Reuters/status/1497728184145514496

Should've been $351 million.  Unbelievable how weak this president is, never willing to go as far as he needs to to defend Ukraine.

Trump would have given them $352 million in aid and been on the front lines himself riding a tank into battle with a rocket launcher aimed right at Putin's dacha.

[DaleCooper]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Reuters/status/1497728184145514496

Should've been $351 million.  Unbelievable how weak this president is, never willing to go as far as he needs to to defend Ukraine.

Trump would have given them $352 million in aid and been on the front lines himself riding a tank into battle with a rocket launcher aimed right at Putin's dacha.

The tank wouldn't be able to support his tremendous weight.

[Virginiá]

While I 100% do support boycotting products made in Russia right now, I do hope we don’t start seeing Russophobia from this. I’m guessing the overwhelming majority of the Russian diaspora aren’t even in favor of this and are pro-Ukraine, I hope Americans don’t use this as an excuse to be idiots…but they will won’t they?

I was just thinking this. There are a lot of Russian Americans not sympathetic to Putin or his actions with small businesses that don't deserve to be driven under by a wave of boycotts. I'm not sure I believe a boycott against international Russian products would not inevitably spill over onto innocent people.

[NOVA Green]

So the saga of "Snake Island" and the valiant Ukranian defenders continues:

Courtesy of CNN from 1 hour and ten minutes ago:

"1 hr 10 min ago
Pentagon denies Russia's claim that it's "highly likely" US used surveillance drones to help Ukrainian navy

From CNN’s Nathan Hodge and Vasco Cotovio in Moscow and Oren Lieberman at the Pentagon

The Pentagon has denied a claim from the Russian Ministry of Defence saying it is "highly likely" that the United States used some of its surveillance drones flying over the Black Sea to help the Ukrainian Navy attack its vessels.

“On the evening of February 25, during the evacuation of 82 Ukrainian servicemen who voluntarily laid down their arms from Zmeiny [Zmiiny] Island, 16 boats of the Ukrainian Navy, using the 'swarm tactics,' tried to attack the ships of the Black Sea Fleet,” Russian defense ministry spokesperson Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said in a statement on Saturday. “During the attack by Ukrainian boats over the provocation area, US strategic unmanned aerial vehicles RQ-4 'Global Hawk' and MQ-9A 'Reaper' were overhead.”

“It is highly likely that it was American UAVs that directed Ukrainian boats at the ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet,” Konashenkov said.

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby denied the claims:

“Russian claims that the United States was involved in any way with Ukrainian naval operations near the Zmiiny Island are false. We did not provide ISR or any other support. Chalk this up to just one more lie by the Russian Ministry of Defense,” he told CNN.
Konashenkov also said that six boats of the Ukrainian navy were destroyed but that none of the 82 Ukrainian servicemen from the island, also known as Snake Island, were injured.

..."


https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-26-22/index.html

So new update on the "Snake Island" story per CNN....

"Defenders of Ukrainian island may still be alive and now POWs, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine says

From CNN's Sebastian Shukla in Kyiv

The defenders of the small Ukrainian island of Zmiinyi in the Black Sea may still be alive, according to a statement released on Saturday by the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (SBGSU).

"We [have a] strong belief that all Ukrainian defenders of Zmiinyi (Snake) Island may be alive,” the statement said.

Both President Zelensky and the SBGSU said Friday all the soldiers had been killed following the small island’s capture by Russian forces.

Preliminary information that border guards may be dead came before the defenders lost contact," Saturday's statement said.
On Friday, Russian Major-General Igor Konashenkov said 82 Ukrainian servicemen “laid down their arms and voluntarily surrendered to a unit of the Russian Armed Forces.”

The SBGSU statement added, “Russian media reported that Ukrainian servicemen on the island had been sent to Sevastopol” in Crimea.

On Friday, audio emerged of an exchange between the Ukrainian fighters and an officer of the Russian navy. In the exchange, the Ukrainians were heard to say to “Russian warship – go f*** yourself.” "

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-26-22/index.html

[Storr]

Putin sending in the geriatric tank reinforcements:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497734983456370689?s=20&t=7BI5MrWcnBVXkg...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I was just thinking this. There are a lot of Russian Americans not sympathetic to Putin or his actions with small businesses that don't deserve to be driven under by a wave of boycotts. I'm not sure I believe a boycott against international Russian products would not inevitably spill over onto innocent people.

It rather misses the point for many reasons as a strategy as well: this is not a government dependent in any meaningful sense on popular sentiment and even the more supportive parts of the population do not appear to be enthusiastic about this war. The people to target are those at the top of the tree. We know who they are, we have a pretty good idea about their assets overseas...

[jaichind]

The main difference between the German Volkssturm in 1945 and Ukrainian civilians today is certainly a significantly different level in morale. My own grandfather deserted before he could be drafted into the Volkssturm.

An infinitely less noisome and likely much more relevant analogy from German history would be the Landwehr regiments of 1813-15. They might not have been as effective as regulars, but they were still useful, as motivation and morale were high enough to partially overcome their deficiencies in training and equipment.

But that was before the era of motorization and ariel support.  Another one I can think of would be the 2003 Iraq Fedayeen but in that case, they did get some training months in advance and mostly turned out to be ineffective.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The main difference between the German Volkssturm in 1945 and Ukrainian civilians today is certainly a significantly different level in morale. My own grandfather deserted before he could be drafted into the Volkssturm.

An infinitely less noisome and likely much more relevant analogy from German history would be the Landwehr regiments of 1813-15. They might not have been as effective as regulars, but they were still useful, as motivation and morale were high enough to partially overcome their deficiencies in training and equipment.

But that was before the era of motorization and ariel support.  Another one I can think of would be the 2003 Iraq Fedayeen but in that case, they did get some training months in advance and mostly turned out to be ineffective.

Also The Iraqi people were clearly not behind Saddam by 2003

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The main difference between the German Volkssturm in 1945 and Ukrainian civilians today is certainly a significantly different level in morale. My own grandfather deserted before he could be drafted into the Volkssturm.

An infinitely less noisome and likely much more relevant analogy from German history would be the Landwehr regiments of 1813-15. They might not have been as effective as regulars, but they were still useful, as motivation and morale were high enough to partially overcome their deficiencies in training and equipment.

But that was before the era of motorization and ariel support.  Another one I can think of would be the 2003 Iraq Fedayeen but in that case, they did get some training months in advance and mostly turned out to be ineffective.

Speaking of which, how is the Ukrainian air force doing? Do we have any idea?

[AndyHogan14]

The main difference between the German Volkssturm in 1945 and Ukrainian civilians today is certainly a significantly different level in morale. My own grandfather deserted before he could be drafted into the Volkssturm.

An infinitely less noisome and likely much more relevant analogy from German history would be the Landwehr regiments of 1813-15. They might not have been as effective as regulars, but they were still useful, as motivation and morale were high enough to partially overcome their deficiencies in training and equipment.

But that was before the era of motorization and ariel support.  Another one I can think of would be the 2003 Iraq Fedayeen but in that case, they did get some training months in advance and mostly turned out to be ineffective.

Speaking of which, how is the Ukrainian air force doing? Do we have any idea?

I saw something that said that they were still active, but not much more. I think it is safe to say that the Russians have air superiority, but not supremacy.

[It’s so Joever]

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

The main difference between the German Volkssturm in 1945 and Ukrainian civilians today is certainly a significantly different level in morale. My own grandfather deserted before he could be drafted into the Volkssturm.

An infinitely less noisome and likely much more relevant analogy from German history would be the Landwehr regiments of 1813-15. They might not have been as effective as regulars, but they were still useful, as motivation and morale were high enough to partially overcome their deficiencies in training and equipment.

But that was before the era of motorization and ariel support.  Another one I can think of would be the 2003 Iraq Fedayeen but in that case, they did get some training months in advance and mostly turned out to be ineffective.

Speaking of which, how is the Ukrainian air force doing? Do we have any idea?

Still flying last I heard.

[It’s so Joever]

The main difference between the German Volkssturm in 1945 and Ukrainian civilians today is certainly a significantly different level in morale. My own grandfather deserted before he could be drafted into the Volkssturm.

An infinitely less noisome and likely much more relevant analogy from German history would be the Landwehr regiments of 1813-15. They might not have been as effective as regulars, but they were still useful, as motivation and morale were high enough to partially overcome their deficiencies in training and equipment.

But that was before the era of motorization and ariel support.  Another one I can think of would be the 2003 Iraq Fedayeen but in that case, they did get some training months in advance and mostly turned out to be ineffective.

Speaking of which, how is the Ukrainian air force doing? Do we have any idea?

I saw something that said that they were still active, but not much more. I think it is safe to say that the Russians have air superiority, but not supremacy.

The fact they are even still flying is amazing.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If it is, in fact, MLRS, the question is whether what is happening in Kharkiv will be swiftly extended to multiple fronts or whether Putin intends to wreck one city first as an example.

How useful MLRS’s are on a strategic level provided its psychological usage can be overcome?

I started writing a post on this, but I'm going to keep this short and would really prefer for someone with a military background to weigh in. My understanding of them from studying past conflicts is that they are generally more destructive than regular artillery in the short term (because multiple rockets are fired at once - they make up for worse accuracy by covering an area in explosions) but slower to reload in the long haul.

Thermobaric weapons (the most powerful after nukes) are used by other countries, but only the USSR and Russia have manufactured thermobaric MLRS (Ukraine has some older, weaker Soviet ones), and these have even higher payloads than the regular MLRS. In urban warfare, these have been used to solve the problem of urban combat by removing the urban areas. What happened to Grozny is a case in point.

[Person Man]

If it is, in fact, MLRS, the question is whether what is happening in Kharkiv will be swiftly extended to multiple fronts or whether Putin intends to wreck one city first as an example.

How useful MLRS’s are on a strategic level provided its psychological usage can be overcome?

I started writing a post on this, but I'm going to keep this short and would really prefer for someone with a military background to weigh in. My understanding of them from studying past conflicts is that they are generally more destructive than regular artillery in the short term (because multiple rockets are fired at once - they make up for worse accuracy by covering an area in explosions) but slower to reload in the long haul.

Thermobaric weapons (the most powerful after nukes) are used by other countries, but only the USSR and Russia have manufactured thermobaric MLRS (Ukraine has some older, weaker Soviet ones), and these have even higher payloads than the regular MLRS. In urban warfare, these have been used to solve the problem of urban combat by removing the urban areas. What happened to Grozny is a case in point.

Of course Grozny were a bunch of guys with rifles and pickup trucks…

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1497701484003213317?s=20&t=TMyUN-oLHyPxf...
I am not a fan of Elon Musk in the slightest; but I will give him props for this, if it's true. We can't allow Ukraine to be cut off from the internet so Russia can hide their actions. Now announce that the service is free for all Ukrainian's or particularly the ones documenting Russian atrocities.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If it is, in fact, MLRS, the question is whether what is happening in Kharkiv will be swiftly extended to multiple fronts or whether Putin intends to wreck one city first as an example.

How useful MLRS’s are on a strategic level provided its psychological usage can be overcome?

I started writing a post on this, but I'm going to keep this short and would really prefer for someone with a military background to weigh in. My understanding of them from studying past conflicts is that they are generally more destructive than regular artillery in the short term (because multiple rockets are fired at once - they make up for worse accuracy by covering an area in explosions) but slower to reload in the long haul.

Thermobaric weapons (the most devastating after nukes) are used by other countries, but only the USSR and Russia have manufactured thermobaric MLRS (Ukraine has some older, weaker Soviet ones), and these have even higher payloads than the regular MLRS. In urban warfare, these have been used to solve the problem of urban combat by removing the urban areas. What happened to Grozny is a case in point.

Not a military background sort of person, but as someone with a level of interest in military strategy:
If what you say is true, it would not at all surprise me if Russia had advanced MLRS, given what I know about Russian military doctrine. If these sorts of tactics are part of their arsenal, then I don't see why they wouldn't have advanced weapons focused on really ensuring they work.

[NOVA Green]

One item curiously lacking from the Ukranian Military Defensive repertoire are the use of items to slow down the Russian Armored Advance.

This would include items such as Anti-Tank Mines (which naturally would trigger explosions of other Russian heavy vehicles), setting off explosive devises along major routes Russian convoys are using, let alone more of an IED style of asymmetrical warfare which has been extremely successful over the decades.

Hell, even the IRA used IED devices back in the '80s in Northern Ireland against English military convoys with a certain technology which used infrared light beams to trigger an explosive device.

This same technology ended up getting shipped back to the Middle East which was effectively used against British convoys in Basra Province in Iraq War 2.0.

Any ideas why (or if I just missed updates when) Ukraine hasn't deployed such tactics against the Russian Military Convoys???